美国科技巨头正为下一代技术革新的霸主地位展开激烈角逐，元宇宙平台公司（Meta）今年将把资本 支出翻倍至最高 1350 亿美元，全力押注人工智能领域。 特斯拉今年将投入 200 亿美元用于人工智能、自动驾驶汽车和机器人技术的研发，这一金额几乎是华尔 街预期的两倍；同时，公司还将向首席执行官埃隆・马斯克旗下的 xAI 初创公司追加 20 亿美元投资。 马斯克还表示，特斯拉需要打造自己的半导体工厂。 与此同时，人工智能带来的海量需求正加剧全球芯片供需失衡，这一状况或对智能手机、电子设备乃至 汽车制造等多个行业造成冲击。 长期以来，开发和运营人工智能所需的英伟达、超威半导体（AMD）加速器一直供不应求，如今投资 者对基础存储芯片也将出现类似短缺的担忧正不断加剧。 半导体的供应能力将成为行业增长的一大瓶颈。马斯克本月早些时候在接受 X 大奖基金会创始人彼 得・迪亚曼蒂斯的播客采访时表示，他已考虑为特斯拉打造专属的逻辑芯片、存储芯片制造及封装工 厂。 马斯克称："如果不建晶圆厂，我们终将遭遇芯片供应瓶颈。眼下只有两个选择：要么面对瓶颈束手无 策，要么自己建晶圆厂。" 若人工智能及其基础设施的需求走弱，企业的高额投入也将 ...

全球头部科技企业对人工智能领域的投入丝毫没有放缓的迹象，这一波创纪录的投入热潮正在带动三星 电子、海力士等硬件供应商发展。尽管市场对于人工智能需求的可持续性能否支撑如此巨额的资本投 入，仍存诸多质疑。 仅Meta平台公司一家，就公布了今年高达 1350 亿美元的投入计划，这也是商界规模最大的拟投入资金 之一。其供应商也应声跟进：本周四，海力士宣布计划 "大幅增加" 资本支出，三星则表示将加大对存 储芯片产能的投入。 投资者始终愿意为企业的发展雄心买单，前提是企业能实现增长。微软因披露云服务增长放缓，股价下 跌 6.1%，而Meta公司股价则上涨 6.6%。 与此同时，人工智能领域的巨大需求正加剧全球芯片供需失衡，这一状况或对智能手机、消费电子乃至 汽车制造等多个行业造成冲击。 市场对英伟达、超威半导体等企业生产的人工智能研发和运营所需加速器的需求，长期处于供不应求的 状态，如今投资者又开始愈发担忧，基础存储芯片也将出现类似的供应缺口。 海力士 DRAM 内存市场主管朴俊德在电话会议中表示，存储芯片的供应已无法跟上需求步伐，"多数客 户都在竭力保障存储芯片的采购量，并持续要求供应商增加供应。" 埃隆・马斯克近日 ...

图片来源：视觉中国 这些积极信息不仅直接带动台积电股价持续走高，还使荷兰半导体设备制造商阿斯麦的市值一度达 到5269亿美元，此前市值超过5000亿美元的欧洲企业只有奢侈品集团LVHM和制药企业诺和诺德。 台积电在财报发表会上展示了对未来两到三年AI需求持续增长的绝对信心——宣布2026年资本支出 将提升至史无前例的520亿至560亿美元。 阿斯麦生产的光刻机是制造苹果手机所用芯片及英伟达人工智能加速器等所有核心硬件的关键设 备，使用这些关键设备完成生产的正是台积电。就在几天前，黄仁勋刚刚宣布英伟达已经取代苹果 成为台积电的最大客户。 无论苹果还是英伟达，从台积电这里获得的都是先进制程芯片，这些先进制程芯片是台积电令竞争 对手望尘莫及的竞争力，也是台积电营收的核心中坚：2025年第四季度，3nm制程贡献了接近三成 的晶圆收入，7nm及以下先进制程创造的营收合计占比高达77%。市场预计2nm制程芯片的营收将在 2026年第三季度超越3nm和5nm的总和，成为台积电历史上最具盈利能力的制程节点。 即便最严苛的商业批评家也很难轻忽台积电业已取得的巨大成就，特别是在后者发布了上一年第四 季度财报并宣示2026年将有更 ...

1. 1月22日(周四)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.35%，标普500指数期货涨0.56%，纳指 期货涨0.83%。 | ■ US 30 | 49,247.70 | 49,303.50 | 49,075.40 | +170.70 | +0.35% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ■ US 500 | 6,914.40 | 6,923.40 | 6,878.70 | +38.80 | +0.56% | | 틀 US Tech 100 | 25,536.10 | 25,573.10 | 25,341.60 | +209.50 | +0.83% | 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨1.16%，英国富时100指数涨0.45%，法国CAC40指数涨1.19%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨 1.33%。 | 3. 截至发稿，WTI原油跌1.50%，报59.71美元/桶。布伦特原油跌1.41%，报64.32美元/桶。 | | --- | | 雪 WTI原油 | 2026年3月 | 59.71 | 60.81 | 59.49 | -0.91 | -1.5 ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is expected to see significant revenue growth and improved profit margins by Q1 2026, driven by cost control, capacity increases, and favorable exchange rates, despite potential dilution from overseas expansion and new technology ramp-up [1] Revenue and Profitability - TSMC forecasts revenue between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion for Q1 2026, with a median year-over-year growth of 37.9% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 4.3% [1] - The expected gross margin is projected to be between 63% and 65%, with a median year-over-year increase of 5.2 percentage points and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.7 percentage points [1] Cost Control and Expansion - The improvement in gross margin is attributed to effective cost control, increased capacity, and better exchange rates, although overseas factory ramp-up is expected to dilute margins by 2%-3% initially and 3%-4% in later stages [1] - The introduction of 2nm technology is anticipated to begin ramping up in the second half of 2026, contributing to a gross margin dilution of 2%-3% for the year [1] Capital Expenditure and Demand Confidence - TSMC's significant upward revision of its capital budget for 2026 reflects management's confidence in the long-term demand for advanced processes and revenue growth [1] - Continuous communication with clients has validated the real application basis for AI-related demand, leading to an increase in revenue growth expectations for AI accelerators [1] AI and Semiconductor Expansion - From 2024 to 2029, TSMC expects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 55%-59% for AI accelerator-related revenue, supported by technological differentiation and a broad customer base [1] - The demand for advanced processes driven by AI computing is initiating a new expansion cycle in semiconductor manufacturing, positively impacting key semiconductor process equipment and related supply chains [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronic industry [1][8] Core Insights - Nvidia's Q3 earnings exceeded expectations, with a revenue growth of 62% to $57 billion, driven by strong demand for AI computing [5][6] - The electronic industry index fell by 6.16% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 3.65 percentage points [10] - The electronic sector's PE (TTM) is at 54.13X, down 3.30X from the previous week, indicating a valuation within historical norms [4][11] Market Performance - The electronic industry index reported a 31.0% absolute return over the past 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 by 19.42 percentage points [2][10] - Key companies that performed well last week include Tengjing Technology and Saiwei Electronics, while companies like Xiangnan Chip and Xianying Technology lagged [3][14] Valuation Metrics - The electronic sector's PE (TTM) is at 54.13X, with a historical maximum of 69.14X and a minimum of 39.61X over the past year [4][11] - The PB (LF) stands at 4.48X, with historical extremes of 5.49X and 3.13X [4] Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in consumer electronics, driven by new foldable smartphone releases and advancements in AI technology [7][18] - The demand for AI infrastructure and related components is expected to remain strong, particularly in sectors like AI infrastructure and edge SOCs [6][7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in AI infrastructure, edge SOCs, and the supply chain for foldable smartphones and storage [7][8]

Group 1 - Guangdong Province aims to maintain the top position in digital economy development by 2027, with the core industry's added value accounting for over 16% of GDP and creating three trillion-level digital industry clusters [1] - Nvidia's strong revenue outlook of approximately $65 billion for the fourth fiscal quarter, surpassing analyst expectations, indicates robust demand for AI accelerators [1] - The State Council emphasizes the need for breakthroughs in key AI technologies and their application to promote large-scale implementation [1] Group 2 - Alibaba launched the "Qianwen" project, a personal AI assistant based on its self-developed Qwen model, while Ant Group introduced a multimodal AI assistant "Lingguang" [2] - ByteDance's Doubao app saw a 22.2% month-on-month increase in active users, reaching 159 million, while Tencent's Yuanbao experienced a 55.2% year-on-year growth in active users [2] - McKinsey predicts the global AI To C market will reach $1.3 trillion by 2030, with an annual growth rate exceeding 35% [2] Group 3 - CITIC Securities expresses a long-term positive outlook on domestic computing power demand, anticipating growth to surpass overseas markets by 2030 [3] - Zhongyou Securities highlights the dual-driven approach of To C branding and To B commercialization as a consensus in the industry, focusing on user retention and platform transformation [3] Group 4 - Baidu showcased multiple AI achievements at the 2025 Baidu World Conference, including the release of the Wenxin model 5.0 and new AI chips [4] - Alibaba's cloud provided over 10 million CPU cores for the Double 11 shopping festival, supporting various AI applications [4] Group 5 - SenseTime is expected to benefit from revenue growth in generative AI and operational cost reductions, with a target price increase from HKD 1.85 to HKD 3 [5] - SenseTime's partnership with Cambricon is anticipated to enhance its AI computing capabilities [5] Group 6 - ZTE is focusing on AI investments, offering end-to-end intelligent computing solutions to support enterprise digital transformation [6]

Economic Indicators - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.18% at 3946.74 points, while the Shenzhen Component remained flat and the ChiNext Index rose 0.25%[1] - The Hang Seng Index fell 0.38% to 25830.65 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.69% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 0.26%[1] - The U.S. Dow Jones increased by 0.1%, the S&P 500 rose 0.38% to 6642.16 points, and the Nasdaq gained 0.59%[1] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes indicated that many officials oppose a rate cut in December, suggesting that maintaining rates may be appropriate for the remainder of the year[12] - Market traders have reduced the probability of a rate cut by the end of the year to approximately 30%[8] Corporate Developments - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) plans to absorb and merge with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, resulting in a combined registered capital of 11.3 billion RMB (approximately 1.6 billion USD)[8] - Nvidia reported a 62% increase in revenue for Q3, with a forecast of approximately 65 billion USD for the upcoming quarter, exceeding analyst expectations[12]

Group 1 - Nvidia's strong revenue outlook for Q4, expected at approximately $65 billion, surpasses analyst estimates of $62 billion, indicating robust demand for AI accelerators [1] - The U.S. has approved the sale of advanced AI chips to UAE's G42 and Saudi Arabia's Humain, significantly supporting their ambitions in the tech sector [1] - Following Nvidia's earnings outlook, its stock price rose by 5% in after-hours trading, with a year-to-date increase of 39% [1] Group 2 - InnoLux (02577) is a leading GaN power semiconductor company with a 30% global market share, expected to benefit from a 63% CAGR in the GaN market from 2024 to 2028 [2] - BYD Electronics (00285) is involved in the development of next-generation AI factories in collaboration with Nvidia, with its liquid cooling products certified for Nvidia's systems [2] Group 3 - ASMPT (00522) is enhancing its TCB and HB offerings, with expected acceleration in shipments starting Q4 2025, having secured orders for HBM4 from major clients [3] - The company is collaborating with clients on various HB projects, with multiple initiatives at different evaluation stages [3]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes - The Federal Reserve's October FOMC meeting minutes reveal significant internal divisions regarding the continuation of interest rate cuts, with discussions covering inflation risks, labor market cooling, and economic growth discrepancies [1] - The decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4% was passed with a vote of 10 to 2, indicating a contentious consensus [1] - The outlook for further rate cuts in December has become increasingly uncertain [1] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 47.03 points to 46,138.77, a gain of 0.1% [2] - The S&P 500 rose by 24.84 points to 6,642.16, reflecting a 0.38% increase, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 131.38 points to 22,564.23, a 0.59% rise [2] - Nvidia's stock surged over 6% in after-hours trading, contributing to gains in other semiconductor stocks like AMD, TSMC, and Micron Technology, which rose around 4% [2] Group 3: Nvidia's Strong Revenue Outlook - Nvidia provided a robust revenue forecast of approximately $65 billion for the fourth fiscal quarter ending in January, surpassing the analyst average estimate of $62 billion [3] - This outlook alleviates concerns regarding a potential collapse of the AI investment bubble, indicating sustained demand for Nvidia's AI accelerators [3] - Nvidia's stock has increased by 39% year-to-date, reflecting strong market confidence [3] Group 4: Hong Kong's Swap Connect Growth - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission reported that the Swap Connect has seen impressive growth, with trading volume reaching about 10% of the mainland interest rate swap market [4] - As of September, total trading volume exceeded RMB 8.5 trillion, with an average daily volume of RMB 14.7 billion [4] - The Commission is exploring the Southbound Swap Connect to allow mainland investors to utilize Hong Kong's swap market for risk management [5] Group 5: Agricultural Development in Xinjiang - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the Xinjiang government announced a plan to modernize 30,000 acres of old facilities and add 20,000 acres of modern agricultural production by the end of 2028 [6][7] - The initiative aims to enhance the production capacity, quality, and competitiveness of facility agriculture in southern Xinjiang [7] Group 6: Strategic Partnerships and Agreements - The Central Securities Depository and the Postal Savings Bank of China signed a comprehensive strategic cooperation agreement to deepen collaboration across various financial sectors [9] - The agreement aims to innovate in risk management and research collaboration [9] Group 7: Memory Prices Forecast - Counterpoint Research predicts that memory prices are expected to rise by approximately 50% before the second quarter of 2026 due to critical chip shortages [10] - The LPDDR4 segment faces the highest risk of price increases, driven by Nvidia's increased demand for LPDDR in server applications [10] Group 8: Company Earnings Reports - WanGuo Data reported a net income of RMB 2.887 billion for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.2% [13] - GuoFu Quantum anticipates a net profit of approximately HKD 200 million to 210 million for the six months ending September 30, 2025, reversing a loss from the previous year [14] - Kingsoft Software reported a net profit of approximately RMB 213 million for Q3 2025, a decrease of 48% year-on-year [15][16] - Kuaishou's Q3 revenue reached RMB 35.554 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, with operating profit rising by 69.9% [19]