| 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-10-30 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3986.90 | 13532.12 | 4709.91 | 14404.07 | 3921.10 | 1461.30 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -0.73 | -1.16 | -0.79 | -1.17 | -1.66 | -1.86 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 10700.58 | 13516.18 | 7199.56 | 4648.22 | 6414.18 | 988.12 | $$\overline{{{\prod_{p\in\mathbb{R}}\sum_{i=1}^{n}\frac{p_{i}}{p_{i}}}}}$$ 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 证券研究报告 | 2025年10月31日 固定收益投资策略:债海观潮，大势研判——央行重启买债，债市仍存在 阶段性机会 固定收益专题研究:中长期纯债基金三季报分析-业绩降温 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Outperform the Market" [6][11]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 590 million yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 80 million yuan, down 26.3% year-on-year [1][9]. - Revenue growth in Q3 was primarily driven by the bulk snack and e-commerce channels, supported by new product launches and channel optimization [1][9]. - The company is experiencing a significant improvement in profitability, with a net profit margin recovering to 12.9%, an increase of 8.9 percentage points from Q2 [2][10]. - The company has optimized its product structure, leading to better sales performance of high-margin bean products, which has contributed to the recovery in profitability [2][10]. - Despite challenges in traditional channels and increased expenses due to domestic channel reforms and new product development, the company is expected to see a gradual improvement in its operational quality [3][11]. Financial Forecasts - The company has slightly adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting total revenues of 2.24 billion, 2.53 billion, and 2.88 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -0.8%, +12.8%, and +14.2% [3][11]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period are adjusted to 250 million, 330 million, and 410 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -33.9%, +31.0%, and +25.8% [3][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.67, 3.50, and 4.40 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][11]. Valuation - The company's stock price has decreased by nearly 40% since the beginning of the year, resulting in a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20, 16, and 12 for 2025-2027, which is considered low compared to peers in the snack industry [3][11]. - The company has a well-established product matrix with numerous new products in the categories of beans, flavored nuts, and puffed snacks, which is expected to help it recover from the challenges faced in traditional channels [3][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 68 yuan [2][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 1.533 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.53%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 156 million yuan, down 43.66% year-on-year [2][8]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 588 million yuan, an increase of 4.37% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 82 million yuan, a decrease of 26.31% year-on-year [2][8]. - The company is focusing on improving its channel strategies and product offerings, particularly in the bean and flavored nut categories, which have shown positive sales growth [8][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024A, the total revenue is projected at 2.257 billion yuan with a growth rate of 22.2%. The net profit is expected to be 376 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 14.3% [4]. - The company anticipates a decline in revenue for 2025E to 2.211 billion yuan, with a significant drop in net profit to 247 million yuan, a decrease of 34.4% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E is projected to be 2.65 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21 times [4][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively enhancing its product mix and channel distribution, with a focus on high-margin products like beans, which contributed to a gross margin of 37.15% in Q3 2025, an increase of 0.35 percentage points year-on-year [8][9]. - The company is also expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia, while facing challenges in Vietnam due to policy adjustments [8][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of channel diversification and product innovation to sustain growth and improve profitability in the coming years [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is showing signs of a revenue turning point, with new products continuing to penetrate channels [1] - The company reported a total operating revenue of 1.533 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a decrease of 5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 156 million yuan, down 44% year-on-year [4][5] - The gross margin improved by 0.3 percentage points to 37.15% in Q3 2025, attributed to product structure optimization and cost control measures [5] - The company is focusing on differentiated product development, particularly in the snack and e-commerce channels, which are contributing to growth [6] - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to EPS of 2.59, 3.46, and 4.19 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 22, 16, and 13 times [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, total operating revenue was 588 million yuan, an increase of 4% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 26% to 82 million yuan [4][5] - The company’s sales expense ratio increased by 6 percentage points to 17.33%, while the management expense ratio decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.71% [5] Product and Channel Development - The company is developing differentiated products around legumes and flavored nuts, with successful trials in e-commerce [6] - The growth in Q3 2025 was primarily driven by the snack wholesale and e-commerce channels, with improvements in direct sales channels [6] Earnings Forecast - The adjusted EPS for 2025-2027 is projected at 2.59, 3.46, and 4.19 yuan, reflecting a cautious outlook on revenue growth [7] - The company’s revenue growth rates are forecasted at -2.1% for 2025, followed by 9.3% and 12.8% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [10]

10月29日，甘源食品发布投资者关系活动记录表。当中披露，关于公司第三季度收入和毛利率情况，甘 源食品称，收入方面，公司对经典产品进行了创新，刺激豆类产品新的增长点，风味豆、健康豆等新品 逐步放量，第三季度营收较上年同期增长4.37%；毛利率方面，公司的毛利率水平波动较小。2025年1-9 月综合毛利率同比下降0.63%，主要受到原料成本上升的影响。2025年第三季度，随着营收规模的增 长，以及公司在豆类产品上形成规模化生产效应，第三季度毛利率水平较上年同期有所提升。 谈及公司产品规划以及新品储备计划，甘源食品还表示，公司以豆类和风味坚果作为两大战略品类。在 豆类领域，在经典产品基础上，成功推出了如绿蚕豆、翡翠豆等新品，并正积极拓展"健康豆养"系列。 风味坚果方面，以技术创新联动风味创新，构建产品壁垒，打造差异化风味坚果产品。公司以芥末味夏 威夷果仁等产品切入市场，分渠道实现逐步覆盖。综上，公司拥有持续的新品储备和迭代计划，通过产 品创新，不断拓展市场空间，提升品牌价值，优化盈利能力，从而实现高质量增长。 （企业公告） ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯甘源食品10月29日发布公告，在公司回答调研者提问时表示，收入方面，公司对经典产品 进行了创新，刺激豆类产品新的增长点，风味豆、健康豆等新品逐步放量，第三季度营收较上年同期增 长4.37%；毛利率方面，公司的毛利率水平波动较小。2025年1-9月综合毛利率同比下降0.63%，主要受 到原料成本上升的影响。2025年第三季度，随着营收规模的增长，以及公司在豆类产品上形成规模化生 产效应，第三季度毛利率水平较上年同期有所提升。 ...

证券代码：002991 证券简称：甘源食品 甘源食品股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-006 答：公司稳健深耕海外业务，目前以东南亚地区为重点市场。前期我们已经积 累了宝贵的本地化运营经验，但也面临当地政策变化等挑战。目前公司正逐步 开拓印尼、泰国、马来西亚等新市场，深度本土化，针对当地口味偏好开发产 品。我们将以长期主义的耐心，建立本地团队、研发贴合本地需求的产品、融 入本地供应链，逐步在海外市场树立品牌，稳步推动海外业务的长期发展。 问：公司对于费用投入是如何计划的？ 答：报告期内，公司为支持新品投放与海外新市场拓展而策略性提升了销售费 用率。后续，公司将通过精细化预算管理，优化费用结构，将资源往优质渠道 与核心单品集中，减少低效投入，推动费用率稳步回落。 问：公司的产品力比较强，请问在渠道合作方面具备哪些优势？ 答：公司始终践行全渠道发展战略，积极与各渠道开展密切合作。基于公司的 产品创新研发与快速响应能力，我们积极与各渠道共同探索多元化的产品合作 机会。针对不同渠道的客群特质与场景需求，公司依托柔性的供应链体系，为 KA 卖场、会员店、量贩系统、即时零售等量身定制差异化方案：从主打家 ...