Core Viewpoint - The upcoming year 2026 is anticipated to be a year of comprehensive reform and development, with new driving forces for economic growth emerging, particularly in technology and innovation [1][2][3]. Economic Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes accelerating high-level technological self-reliance and innovation, which is expected to drive new productivity in the economy [2]. - The accumulation of technological factors is projected to lead to breakthroughs in future industries such as AI, biomedicine, hydrogen energy, and sixth-generation mobile communications [2]. - The focus on expanding domestic demand is expected to strengthen under the reform framework, with a notable emphasis on structural economic recovery in 2026 [3]. A-Share Market Strategy - A-share market is currently experiencing a phase of high valuation and potential adjustment, particularly in the AI sector, but a significant upward trend is not yet concluded [6][7]. - A small rebound in technology growth is expected before the spring of 2026, with a potential comprehensive market rally in the second half of the year [7]. - Key investment themes for 2026 include recovery trades in basic chemicals and industrial metals, technology industry trends in humanoid robots and energy storage, and enhanced manufacturing influence [7]. Consumer and Investment Trends - The nominal GDP is expected to improve, leading to better profitability and a recovery in investment growth, with fixed asset investment projected to return to around 3% [4]. - Consumer retail growth is anticipated to be 4.5% in 2026, with service sector retail expected to perform better at 5.5% [3]. External Demand - Export resilience is expected to remain strong, with a narrowing decline in exports to the U.S. and an increase in trade with non-U.S. regions [5].

Group 1 - A-shares have strongly broken through the 4000-point mark for the first time since 2014, confirming a new bull market trend [1] - There is an increase in divergence between bulls and bears around the 4000-point level, with a technical pullback observed, but the upward channel remains intact [1] - Substantial progress has been made in China-US economic and trade consultations, leading to a phase of easing bilateral relations and a rapid recovery in global risk appetite [1] Group 2 - The market structure is transitioning from a "one-star" performance to a "multi-flower" growth, with technology leaders leading the rally, followed by new energy sectors such as energy storage, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics [2] - There is an expectation of continued monetary easing, with potential reserve requirement ratio cuts of 25-50 basis points and policy interest rate reductions of 10-20 basis points [2] - The fiscal policy is set to expand categories and scales for "old-for-new" replacements, along with subsidies for green, smart, and service consumption [2] Group 3 - The overall judgment for the fourth quarter indicates that the index will continue to operate within an upward channel, with a bull market expected to last 2-3 years [3] - Investment recommendations include focusing on technology sectors such as humanoid robots, computing chips, semiconductor equipment, and industrial software during pullbacks [3] - The A-share market is currently in a phase of rising profits and valuations, suggesting a strategy of maintaining composure and making low-cost investments to achieve steady wealth growth [3]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Timing System Signal (Wind All A Moving Average Distance Model) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the distance between the short-term moving average (20-day) and the long-term moving average (120-day) of the Wind All A Index to determine the market's overall trend. A positive and expanding distance indicates an upward trend[2][9]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the 20-day moving average (short-term) and the 120-day moving average (long-term) of the Wind All A Index. - Latest values: 20-day MA = 5658, 120-day MA = 5241[2][9]. 2. Compute the percentage difference between the two moving averages: $ \text{Distance} = \frac{\text{20-day MA} - \text{120-day MA}}{\text{120-day MA}} \times 100\% $ - Current distance = 7.96%[2][9]. 3. Interpret the signal: If the distance is greater than 3% and positive, the market is in an upward trend[2][9]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the market's upward momentum and provides a clear signal for maintaining high equity positions during positive trends[2][9]. 2. Model Name: Industry Allocation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies industries with potential for medium-term outperformance based on factors such as policy support, valuation, and growth trends[2][10]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Analyze industry-specific drivers, including policy incentives and growth catalysts. 2. Identify sectors with "distressed reversal" characteristics or benefiting from policy-driven growth. 3. Recommend sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, securities insurance, photovoltaics, coal, and non-ferrous metals. 4. Use the TWO BETA model to emphasize technology-related sectors, including military, computing power, and batteries[2][10]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides actionable insights for sector rotation, aligning with macroeconomic and policy trends[2][10]. 3. Model Name: Position Management Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model determines optimal equity allocation levels based on valuation metrics and market trends[3][10]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Assess valuation levels of the Wind All A Index using PE and PB ratios. - Current PE: 70th percentile (moderate level). - Current PB: 30th percentile (low level)[3][10]. 2. Combine valuation analysis with timing signals (e.g., moving average distance and profit-making effect). 3. Recommend equity allocation levels based on the above factors. - Current recommendation: 80% equity allocation[3][10]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model balances valuation and trend analysis, providing a systematic approach to equity allocation[3][10]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Timing System Signal - Moving average distance: 7.96% (greater than the 3% threshold, indicating an upward trend)[2][9]. 2. Industry Allocation Model - Recommended sectors: Innovative pharmaceuticals, securities insurance, photovoltaics, coal, non-ferrous metals, military, computing power, and batteries[2][10]. 3. Position Management Model - PE: 70th percentile (moderate level)[3][10]. - PB: 30th percentile (low level)[3][10]. - Recommended equity allocation: 80%[3][10]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Profit-Making Effect - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the market's ability to generate profits for investors, serving as a key indicator of market sentiment and potential capital inflows[2][10]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the profit-making effect value based on market performance. - Current value: 3.73% (positive)[2][10]. 2. Interpret the signal: A positive value indicates sustained investor confidence and potential for further capital inflows[2][10]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is a reliable indicator of market sentiment, supporting timing and allocation decisions[2][10]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Profit-Making Effect - Current value: 3.73% (positive, indicating sustained market confidence)[2][10].

Group 1 - The "Guiding Opinions" issued by seven departments, including the central bank, focus on 18 targeted support measures for the new industrialization strategy, emphasizing the high-end, intelligent, and green development of manufacturing [1][2] - The capital market plays a crucial role in financing and optimizing financial resource allocation, which is essential to prevent "involution" competition by making financial resources appropriately scarce [1][3] - The financial system is expected to mature by 2027, enhancing service adaptability and addressing financing pain points in the industrial and manufacturing sectors through various financial instruments [2][3] Group 2 - The future industrialization will be characterized by high-end manufacturing and intelligent transformation, with traditional industries transitioning to smart factories and digital production lines through AI integration [3][4] - The capital market is expected to provide multi-level financing channels for emerging industries, support mergers and acquisitions, and innovate bond varieties to broaden financing sources [3][4] - The emphasis on long-term financing for key technology breakthroughs in manufacturing indicates a shift towards sustainable financial support for emerging industries [3][5] Group 3 - The investment and financing functions must be balanced, ensuring that promising companies receive support while reinforcing regulatory measures to prevent misuse of funds [4][5] - The pain points in emerging industry development include the scarcity of new technologies and the need for specialized talent to identify potential opportunities [5][6] - The focus on preventing "involution" competition involves making financial resources scarce and ensuring that investments yield returns, thereby constraining disorderly capacity expansion [5][6] Group 4 - Key investment opportunities in the new industrialization process include innovative pharmaceuticals, computing power, photolithography machines, high-end CNC machine tools, nuclear fusion, AI applications, IoT, military industry, and robotics [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent economic data in China exceeded expectations, leading to a collective rebound in A-shares despite external conflicts, with over 3,400 stocks rising [1][5]. Economic Data - China's industrial added value in May increased by 5.8% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 5.7% and the previous value of 6.1% [6]. - The retail sales of consumer goods in May reached 41,326 billion yuan, growing by 6.4% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 4.9% and the previous 5.1% [6]. Impact of External Conflicts - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have significant implications, but their actual impact on Chinese assets is limited. Short-term market fluctuations may provide investment opportunities [4][8]. - Analysts suggest that while external conflicts may trigger risk-averse sentiments globally, the fundamental factors within China will primarily dictate market trends [9]. Investment Opportunities - Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about A-shares, indicating a return of global capital to China, which could disproportionately benefit major index-weighted stocks like Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, BYD, Meituan, NetEase, Midea, Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, Ctrip, and Anta [9]. - The upcoming Lujiazui Forum on June 18-19 is expected to announce significant financial policies, which could enhance domestic economic resilience [9]. Sector Performance - Recent trends show that sectors such as wind power, gaming, media, and computing have performed well, while pharmaceuticals and precious metals have seen corrections [3]. - The period from June 15 to July 15 has historically shown a high performance rate for industries with positive earnings forecasts, indicating potential investment opportunities in these sectors [10]. Market Rotation - Following the recent surge in innovative drugs and new consumption sectors, there is speculation that these themes may have reached a temporary peak. Funds are beginning to rotate towards technology sectors, including AI, media, and military technology [15][24]. - The technology sector has shown resilience during past geopolitical conflicts, suggesting it may continue to perform well despite external pressures [26].

Group 1 - The AI industry chain continues to attract investment, with a focus on computing power [1][6] - The communication and military industry ETFs have seen significant gains, driven by geopolitical tensions and AI-related stocks [2][3] - The CPO concept index has led the market with a 4.91% increase, while several communication and 5G-related ETFs have also surged [3][4] Group 2 - The military sector's rise is linked to heightened geopolitical tensions, while the drop in gold prices is attributed to market corrections [2][5] - The domestic demand for computing power is expected to increase due to geopolitical conflicts and trade tariffs, benefiting the local market [6][9] - The semiconductor sector, particularly in light modules, is gaining attention as the market remains focused on AI developments [7][8]