境内宏观：尽管新旧经济景气分化的结构延续，但2025Q4新经济景气中枢明显上移，并由AI向出海、资源品、服务消费等更多领域扩散。新兴科技产业 链呈现出供需两旺的特征，内部细分涨价赛道明显增多。 政策风向：各地2026年经济增长目标稳中有降，政策聚焦扩内需与强科技。15省将GDP目标下调0.5个百分点，12省GDP目标较去年基本不变。 境外宏观：1月美联储按兵不动符合预期，预计2026年或仍有2-3次降息。1月FOMC会议美联储对经济、就业和通胀都表现出了更乐观的态度，这为重启 降息增加了不确定性。 债券市场：债市方面，市场分歧加剧但难有单边行情。往后看，债券市场短期或将继续进行方向试探，但中期受当前宏观环境制约，预计难以走出单边趋 势行情。 摘要 6、投资策略 正文 1、政策风向： 权益市场：上周市场在周一大跌后维持震荡，价值股整体表现偏强。食品饮料、银行、建材行业继续上行，有色、通信、石化行业转跌，电子、计算机、 化工行业继续下跌。 投资策略：可关注：1）内需价值：春节后内需板块超额概率更高，叠加扩内需成为重要增长抓手，而市场预期与持仓均处于底部；2）新兴科技：中美的 竞争不再只是贸易的竞争，更是生产效率的 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the announcement is that Angang Steel Co., Ltd. plans to continue its commodity futures hedging business in 2026, with a maximum margin of RMB 900 million, which accounts for 1.89% of the company's audited net assets from the previous year [2][3]. - The board of directors approved the hedging business with a unanimous vote of 9 in favor, indicating strong internal support for this strategy [2][20]. - The hedging activities are aimed at mitigating price volatility risks associated with raw materials and finished products, which include iron ore, coking coal, and various steel products [4][7]. Group 2 - The company will conduct futures trading through recognized exchanges such as the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Dalian Commodity Exchange, focusing on specific commodities like iron ore and steel [7]. - The maximum hedging volume for various products in 2026 is set at 2 million tons for steel, 4.5 million tons for iron ore, and 490,000 tons for coking coal and other related products [7]. - The funding for these futures transactions will come from the company's own funds, ensuring no reliance on raised capital or bank loans for these activities [9]. Group 3 - The company has established a management system for its hedging activities, including a dedicated supervisory department to ensure compliance and effectiveness of the hedging strategy [11]. - Risk management measures are in place to address potential market, liquidity, credit, operational, and legal risks associated with the hedging activities [12][13]. - The company has a clear policy against speculative trading, ensuring that all hedging positions are aligned with actual inventory and sales plans [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 2nd, varieties in the polyester industry chain significantly reduced positions and declined. The PX/PTA/PF/PR/MEG main contracts fell by 4.84%, 4.89%, 3.57%, 4.05%, and 4.63% respectively [1]. - The decline was due to a sharp drop in crude oil prices with the retracement of geopolitical premiums, and a significant drop in precious metals and non - ferrous metals which led to a rapid decline in market risk appetite and the outflow of incremental funds from the chemical sector [1]. - The cost side has recently fluctuated around the Iran situation. The Brent oil price dropped from around $70 per barrel at the end of last month to around $65 - $66 per barrel [1][2]. - In the short term, PX/PTA/PF/PR markets are greatly affected by external funds and are highly volatile. It is recommended to hold light positions and wait and see. In the long term, it is advisable to go long on hedging at low prices [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR); PTA spot processing fee; South Korean xylene isomerization profit; South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][22] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures include toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea); toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR; PTA export profit [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [27][30][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures involve PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][40][41] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament DTY factory inventory days, filament FDY factory inventory days, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing start - up rate, filament FDY profit, and filament POY profit [49][51][59] PF Detailed Data - Figures cover 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [71][75][85] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip, bottle - chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle - chip next - next - month spread (next - next month - base month) [88][90][95]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market exhibited a structural differentiation pattern last week, with cyclical and financial sectors leading gains while military and power equipment sectors declined [1][7] - Industries such as petroleum, coal, and non-ferrous metals continued to rise on a month-on-month basis, while military, power equipment, automotive, and computer sectors experienced significant declines [1][7] Group 2: Macroeconomic Analysis - In January, the manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a seasonal decline and below the average level for recent years [2][8] - The price index showed a notable rebound due to rising commodity prices, while the service sector remained stable and the construction industry required policy support [2][8] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent decision to pause interest rate cuts aligns with market expectations, but the appointment of Kevin Walsh as the new Fed Chair may introduce uncertainties into monetary policy [3][9] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The current phase of A-share earnings disclosures is expected to reveal a shift towards new economic growth, with a notable rise in the new economy's growth center, particularly in AI and overseas expansion [4][10] - The market is anticipated to stabilize, with a focus on leading companies in specific sectors and the A500 index, as regulatory measures have suppressed short-term speculative trading [4][10] - External disturbances may lead to corrections in previously popular sectors, creating potential opportunities for policy support in heavily pressured indices like the CSI 300 [4][10] Group 4: Investment Directions - Emerging technology remains a primary focus, with value stocks also showing potential; attention should be given to leading companies and the A500 index [5][11] - In the technology growth sector, global demand for AI computing power is driving rapid growth in semiconductor equipment demand, leading to price increases across the entire supply chain [5][11] - In the cyclical sector, low valuations and improving economic conditions suggest opportunities in food, retail, tourism services, and commodities like oil and non-ferrous metals [5][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities in China first rose and then fell. Industrial products slightly declined after the rise, while agricultural products slightly increased. At the beginning of the week, supported by multiple positive factors, precious metals and non - ferrous metals rose significantly, driving the collective rise of commodities. However, with the confirmation of the nominee for the Fed Chair (the final candidate is more hawkish than expected), the market adjusted significantly, with precious metals crashing and non - ferrous metals falling sharply [3]. - The Fed suspended rate cuts as scheduled on January 28, maintaining the federal funds rate in the 3.50% - 3.75% range. The market expects a more than 60% probability of two 25 - basis - point rate cuts by the end of 2026. The new Fed Chair nominee may affect future rate - cut expectations. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, whose "hawkish" background may support the US dollar and put pressure on stocks, bonds, and precious metals [4]. - Japan's Prime Minister warned against currency speculation, and the yen continued to rise. The market speculated about US - Japan joint intervention in the foreign exchange market, and the Japanese bond market also fluctuated [4]. - In January, China's manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs both declined, and economic activities slowed down compared with the previous month. However, production remained in expansion, and positive demand - side policies provided a foundation for the economy in the first quarter. In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 0.6% year - on - year, reversing the three - year decline. The 2026 tax reform aims to balance the central - local fiscal relationship and optimize the tax structure, which may relieve local debt risks [5]. - Commodity volatility is rising, and the strength of different sectors may change. The confirmation of the Fed Chair nominee may lead to a rebound in the US dollar index, suppressing precious metals and non - ferrous metals. China's policies to expand domestic demand may benefit some commodities, and geopolitical and weather factors may support energy prices [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Market Performance**: This week, domestic commodities first rose and then fell. Industrial products slightly declined, and agricultural products slightly increased. The market adjusted after the confirmation of the Fed Chair nominee [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: The Fed suspended rate cuts, and the market expects rate cuts by the end of 2026. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, and Japan's currency and bond markets fluctuated [4]. - **Domestic Factors**: In January, China's manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined. In 2025, industrial profits increased, and the 2026 tax reform may relieve local debt risks [5]. - **Commodity Views**: Commodity volatility is rising, and sector strength may change due to factors such as the Fed Chair nominee, China's policies, and geopolitical and weather factors [6] PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Fed Policy**: The Fed suspended rate cuts on January 28, maintaining the federal funds rate in the 3.50% - 3.75% range. The market expects a more than 60% probability of two 25 - basis - point rate cuts by the end of 2026 [4]. - **Nominee for Fed Chair**: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Warsh has a "hawkish" background, and his policies may support the US dollar and put pressure on stocks, bonds, and precious metals [4]. - **Japan's Situation**: Japan's Prime Minister warned against currency speculation, and the yen continued to rise. The market speculated about US - Japan joint intervention in the foreign exchange market, and the Japanese bond market also fluctuated [4] PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **PMI Data**: In January, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, also a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease. Economic activities slowed down, but production remained in expansion [5][26]. - **Industrial Profits**: In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size was 73982 billion yuan, a 0.6% year - on - year increase, reversing the three - year decline [5][29]. - **Tax Reform**: The 2026 tax reform aims to balance the central - local fiscal relationship and optimize the tax structure, which may relieve local debt risks [5] PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial开工率**: The report shows the开工率 data of the polyester industry chain and the blast furnace开工率 in China, but specific trends and analyses are not detailed in the summary [36]. - **Commodity Prices**: The report shows the price data of fruits, agricultural products, and pork, but specific trends and analyses are not detailed in the summary [49]

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 沃什当选与 PPI 提前转正，谁将成为下阶段市场主要矛盾 ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每周 国内方面，1）"新质生产力"与"反内卷"取得实质性进展，2025 年工业企 业扭转了此前三年持续亏损局面，特别是高技术制造业的利润贡献率大幅提 升。2）开年以来，以有色为代表的大宗大幅涨价，预计 1 月 PPI 环比超预期 增长 0.3%，对应 1 月 PPI 同比回升至-1.2%，预计 PPI 或于 Q2 中后期转正。 海外方面，1）美联储 1 月议息会议并未进一步降息，本次会议中鲍威尔略显 鹰派。2）特朗普提名沃什为美联储下一任主席。3）伊朗局势紧张，贵金属与 有色大幅调整之际，油价依然走高。 资金经历跨月扰动，央行继续通过 OMO 操作释放流动性对冲资金缺口，对资 金面保持温和呵护取向，周度平均走势来看，以 DR001、007 以及 R001、 定期报告 相关报告 1、《PMI 淡季回落———2026 年 1 月 PMI 点评》2026-02-01 2、《如何看 2025 年财政数据 与 2026 年一季度财政节奏？》 2026-01-31 资产方面，1）沃什被任命下一届美联储主 ...

——国内高频指标跟踪（2026 年第 5 期） 本报告导读： 节前赶工托底经济活跃度，内生动能待提升，新兴产业与原油有色涨价成亮点。 投资要点： | 节前效应主导 | [Table_Authors] | 李林芷(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | ——国内高频指标跟踪（2026 年第 5 期） | | 021-23185646 | | | | lilinzhi2@gtht.com | | 本报告导读： | 登记编号 | S0880525040087 | | 节前赶工托底经济活跃度，内生动能待提升，新兴产业与原油有色涨价成亮点。 | | 邵睿思(研究助理) | | | | 010-83939827 | | 投资要点： | | shaoruisi@gtht.com | | [Table_Summary] 上周政策围绕民生福祉提质与发展秩序优化展开，民生端聚焦养老、 | 登记编号 | S0880125070011 | | 殡葬、支付等场景强化普惠适老保障，市场端规范经营乱象、激活 | | | | 服务消费，同步优化城际铁路与能源电价机制，筑牢民生底线并激 | | 梁中华(分析师) | | 活发 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investor education in the futures market is crucial for maintaining market stability, protecting investor rights, and promoting healthy industry development. Dongwu Futures actively engages in this educational effort through diverse services and interactions to create a transparent and trustworthy market environment [1]. Group 1: Educational Activities - Dongwu Futures plans to leverage the advantages of the investor education base to conduct multi-dimensional and in-depth investor education activities in 2025, focusing on three core initiatives [1]. - The company will organize dozens of online and offline educational activities throughout the year, covering various financial futures and commodities, with participation from nearly ten thousand individuals, thereby expanding the reach and impact of these activities [1][2]. - In 2025, Dongwu Futures will host 40 themed meetings, including 10 online salons and 30 offline events, addressing topics such as fundamental analysis, market trends, and current events, which have been well-received by investors of different levels [2]. Group 2: Information Services - Dongwu Futures utilizes a multi-channel approach through its official website, app, and social media platforms to deliver timely market dynamics, trading information, and professional market analysis, ensuring that key information reaches investors accurately and promptly [2]. - The company emphasizes risk education for small and medium investors, focusing on matching capital scale with trading risks and providing practical risk management techniques such as position management and stop-loss settings [2]. Group 3: Innovative Content Delivery - Dongwu Futures has innovated in content presentation, balancing professionalism, engagement, and practicality through educational short videos that explain complex market principles and risk management tools in an accessible manner [3]. - The company’s short video "The New Guarantee for Fruit Farmers" won recognition for its relatable content and emotional resonance, showcasing the effectiveness of engaging educational materials [3]. Group 4: Future Plans - Dongwu Futures aims to establish a systematic and standardized investor education training content library, developing standardized courses and materials to enhance the quality and efficiency of educational efforts [4]. - The company plans to introduce interactive and experiential activities such as "futures simulation trading competitions" and "live Q&A sessions" to foster deeper understanding and skill acquisition among investors [4]. - Dongwu Futures is committed to becoming a trusted partner and enabler for investors, contributing to the stable development of the futures market and the cultivation of a mature investor community through its proactive educational initiatives [4].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a divergence where indices are down while trading volume remains high, indicating significant shifts in investor sentiment and strategy [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market shows a stark contrast with resources like gold and energy commodities performing well, while previously popular sectors such as commercial aerospace and semiconductors are declining [3]. - There is a substantial amount of capital reallocating from high-growth sectors to resource-based and lower-valued sectors, suggesting a "high-low switch" in investment strategies [3]. Group 2: Trading Strategy Recommendations - Investors should avoid chasing after the high-performing resource sectors due to elevated sentiment and instead focus on maintaining positions in these areas while being cautious about new entries [4]. - For the technology growth sectors experiencing deep corrections, it is advised to remain calm and differentiate between irrational sell-offs and genuine fundamental issues, as this could present buying opportunities for fundamentally strong stocks [4]. - A critical task for investors is to reassess their portfolios, shifting away from speculative holdings towards sectors with clear growth prospects and strong company fundamentals, using market volatility as an opportunity for "health checks" and "blood transfusions" in their asset allocations [4].

Group 1: Economic Performance - In December 2025, industrial production increased by 5.2% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 0.49%[13] - The GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 was 4.5%, down 0.3 percentage points from Q3[29] - The annual GDP growth target of 5% was successfully achieved[32] Group 2: Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 1.13% in December[13] - Manufacturing investment grew by 0.6%, but the growth rate fell by 1.3 percentage points[20] - Real estate development investment dropped by 17.2% year-on-year, with the decline deepening by 1.3 percentage points[21] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Social retail sales totaled 45,136 billion yuan in December, growing by 0.9% year-on-year, a decrease of approximately 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[23] - Retail sales excluding automobiles reached 39,654 billion yuan, with a growth of 1.7%[13] - Consumption in gold and jewelry, as well as traditional Chinese and Western medicines, saw significant declines[24]