中信建投期货发布报告表示，美联储降息25BP符合市场预期。本次会议，美联储主要透露以下信息： 决策依据方面，虽然放宽了对通胀的要求以支持当下的降息动作，但后续降息幅度仍取决于长期通胀水 平与就业市场的脆弱程度；对经济的判断上，美国经济的滞胀周期会继续延长；对长期利率的判断上， 美联储的分歧进一步加剧。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 费天元）北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间，符合市场预期。这也是美联储自去年12月以来，时隔9个月再度降息。 北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间，符合 市场预期。这也是美联储自去年12月以来，时隔9个月再度降息。中信建投期货发布报告表示，美联储 降息25BP符合市场预期。本次会议，美联储主要透露以下信息：决策依据方面，虽然放宽了对通胀的 要求以支持当下的降息动作，但后续降息幅度仍取决于长期通胀水平与就业市场的脆弱程度；对经济的 判断上，美国经济的滞胀周期会继续延长；对长期利率的判断上，美联储的分歧进一步加剧。 在大宗商品的演绎上，中信建投期货表示，此前市场抢 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the divergence in commodity markets, highlighting the lack of intrinsic demand momentum as a key obstacle for bullish narratives, contrasting with the robust performance of capital markets [5][6]. Group 1: Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market is experiencing a split, with bullish sentiment being challenged by a lack of internal demand momentum, which is crucial for sustaining price increases [5]. - In the energy sector, particularly crude oil, rising inventories have weakened bullish momentum, and despite geopolitical tensions, there is no significant bullish trend in prices [6]. - The EIA has revised down its 2025 demand growth forecast to 900,000 barrels per day, likely linked to the U.S. economic outlook, while OPEC's recent decisions to increase production reflect a persistent oversupply situation expected to last until early 2026 [6]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Key judgments to make include whether the market's second pricing of supply pressures and weak demand is nearing a marginal end and if the current downward volatility in commodities has reached a bottom, potentially leading to an upward shift in volatility following the Fed's interest rate decisions [7]. - The article suggests continuing to embrace the bullish logic surrounding precious metals, as the self-fulfilling nature of expectations could drive prices higher, although caution is advised regarding potential corrections following interest rate announcements [8]. - Focus on commodities with bullish trading opportunities, particularly those with supply constraints, such as coking coal and polysilicon, while also monitoring external variables affecting supply [8]. Group 3: Export and Demand Trends - The article highlights that China's export sector shows potential for exceeding expectations, with a reported export value of 17.61 trillion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [9]. - The structure of exports is improving, with high-value and high-tech products seeing significant growth, such as integrated circuits and automotive exports, which are expected to support demand for basic metals [9]. - The diversification of export markets is also noted, with significant growth in trade with emerging markets, particularly ASEAN and Africa, indicating reduced reliance on single markets [9]. Group 4: Specific Commodity Insights - The article points out that global aluminum demand is expected to grow by 3% year-on-year, while production growth remains sluggish at around 1.5%, suggesting potential upward price elasticity for aluminum [10]. - The current visible inventory of aluminum is approximately 1.13 million tons, which, while slightly up from the year's low, remains significantly below levels seen in 2024, indicating a potential for price increases [10]. - The relationship between alumina and aluminum has weakened, suggesting that trading strategies focusing on long aluminum and short alumina could have further potential [10].

Group 1 - The market is transitioning from extreme differentiation to a phase of rotation and diffusion, with structural changes being more important than rhythm in a healthy bull market [1][4] - The industry rotation intensity indicator has started to recover from previous lows, indicating that the market is seeking opportunities through rotation and diffusion [1][4] - Seasonal patterns suggest that September is a traditional window for industry rotation to increase, providing opportunities for new growth directions [5][8] Group 2 - The focus should be on expanding based on economic and industrial trends rather than merely seeking low positions, enhancing the probability of success [8][10] - The second half of September to October is a period where the effectiveness of economic investments is expected to improve, with stock prices becoming more correlated with performance as the third-quarter reporting period approaches [8][10] Group 3 - Key sectors to focus on include Hong Kong internet, innovative pharmaceuticals, new energy, new consumption, and cyclical industries (non-ferrous metals, chemicals) [15][19] - The Hong Kong internet sector has significant room for rebound due to macroeconomic conditions and industry trends, particularly with the upcoming interest rate cuts and advancements in AI [16][19] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector has seen sufficient emotional digestion, with leading companies like BeiGene and WuXi AppTec showing strong performance [21][22] Group 4 - The new energy sector is expected to attract funds seeking flexible returns, driven by technological breakthroughs and a reversal of previous downturns [23][26] - The new consumption sector is positioned for potential gains due to low crowding and seasonal catalysts from upcoming holidays, making it a promising area for investment [29][32] Group 5 - The cyclical industries (non-ferrous metals, chemicals) are benefiting from overseas monetary easing and a reversal of previous competitive pressures, providing multiple catalysts for growth [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall production heat has declined, with the operating rates of blast furnaces, asphalt, and PTA all decreasing, and the output of rebar decreasing, while the operating rate of tires has increased [2][32]. - The real - estate market has weakened marginally, with the transaction area of commercial housing decreasing and the land supply area increasing [2][32]. - The price trends are diverging. Crude oil, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products have risen, while coking coal and rebar have fallen. Agricultural product prices continue the seasonal upward trend [2][32]. - Shipping indices have continued to decline, including SCFI, CCFI, and BDI [2][32]. - In the short term, focus on the implementation of a new round of growth - stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real - estate market, and the impact of international geopolitical changes [2][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Production: The heat of blast furnaces, rebar, asphalt, and PTA has all declined, and the tire operating rate has increased - **Steel**: The coke oven capacity utilization rate increased by 0.04 pct, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.23 pct, and the rebar output decreased by 5.8 tons. The inventory increased by 2.27 tons [8]. - **Petroleum Asphalt**: The operating rate decreased by 2.2 pct [8]. - **Chemical Industry**: The PX operating rate remained flat compared with the previous week, while the PTA operating rate decreased by 7.52 pct [8]. - **Automobile Tires**: The operating rate of all - steel tires increased by 1.67 pct, and that of semi - steel tires increased by 1.06 pct [9]. 3.2 Demand: The transaction of commercial housing has continued to decline, and shipping indices have continued the downward trend - **Real Estate**: The transaction area of commercial housing continued to decline, and the inventory - to - sales ratio increased. The land supply area increased, and the transaction premium rate of residential land increased [14]. - **Movie Box Office**: It decreased by 399 million yuan compared with the previous week [14]. - **Automobile**: The daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 13,800 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 22,400 vehicles [17]. - **Shipping Indices**: SCFI decreased by 3.07%, CCFI decreased by 1.55%, and BDI decreased by 4.89% [20]. 3.3 Prices: Crude oil, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products have risen, while coking coal and rebar have fallen - **Energy**: The Brent crude oil price rose by 2.85% to $67.73 per barrel, and the coking coal futures price fell by 6.7% to 1,141.5 yuan per ton [22]. - **Metals**: The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +0.37%, +0.73%, and +0.32% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price decreased by 2.1% [23]. - **Agricultural Products**: The overall price continued the seasonal upward trend. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by +0.25%, +1.05%, +1.89%, and - 1.30% respectively compared with the previous week [25]. 3.4 Logistics: The number of international flights has decreased, and the congestion index in first - tier cities has continued to rise - **Subway Passenger Volume**: In Beijing, it decreased, while in Shanghai, it increased [28]. - **Executed Flight Volume**: Domestic flights increased slightly, and international flights decreased [29]. - **Urban Traffic**: The peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to rise [29]. 3.5 Summary: The overall production heat has declined, and the prices of crude oil and non - ferrous metals have risen The summary is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the changes in production, real - estate, prices, and shipping indices, and suggesting short - term focus areas [32].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Timing System Signal (Wind All A Moving Average Distance Model) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the distance between the short-term moving average (20-day) and the long-term moving average (120-day) of the Wind All A Index to determine the market's overall trend. A positive and expanding distance indicates an upward trend[2][9]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the 20-day moving average (short-term) and the 120-day moving average (long-term) of the Wind All A Index. - Latest values: 20-day MA = 5658, 120-day MA = 5241[2][9]. 2. Compute the percentage difference between the two moving averages: $ \text{Distance} = \frac{\text{20-day MA} - \text{120-day MA}}{\text{120-day MA}} \times 100\% $ - Current distance = 7.96%[2][9]. 3. Interpret the signal: If the distance is greater than 3% and positive, the market is in an upward trend[2][9]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the market's upward momentum and provides a clear signal for maintaining high equity positions during positive trends[2][9]. 2. Model Name: Industry Allocation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies industries with potential for medium-term outperformance based on factors such as policy support, valuation, and growth trends[2][10]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Analyze industry-specific drivers, including policy incentives and growth catalysts. 2. Identify sectors with "distressed reversal" characteristics or benefiting from policy-driven growth. 3. Recommend sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, securities insurance, photovoltaics, coal, and non-ferrous metals. 4. Use the TWO BETA model to emphasize technology-related sectors, including military, computing power, and batteries[2][10]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides actionable insights for sector rotation, aligning with macroeconomic and policy trends[2][10]. 3. Model Name: Position Management Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model determines optimal equity allocation levels based on valuation metrics and market trends[3][10]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Assess valuation levels of the Wind All A Index using PE and PB ratios. - Current PE: 70th percentile (moderate level). - Current PB: 30th percentile (low level)[3][10]. 2. Combine valuation analysis with timing signals (e.g., moving average distance and profit-making effect). 3. Recommend equity allocation levels based on the above factors. - Current recommendation: 80% equity allocation[3][10]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model balances valuation and trend analysis, providing a systematic approach to equity allocation[3][10]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Timing System Signal - Moving average distance: 7.96% (greater than the 3% threshold, indicating an upward trend)[2][9]. 2. Industry Allocation Model - Recommended sectors: Innovative pharmaceuticals, securities insurance, photovoltaics, coal, non-ferrous metals, military, computing power, and batteries[2][10]. 3. Position Management Model - PE: 70th percentile (moderate level)[3][10]. - PB: 30th percentile (low level)[3][10]. - Recommended equity allocation: 80%[3][10]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Profit-Making Effect - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the market's ability to generate profits for investors, serving as a key indicator of market sentiment and potential capital inflows[2][10]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the profit-making effect value based on market performance. - Current value: 3.73% (positive)[2][10]. 2. Interpret the signal: A positive value indicates sustained investor confidence and potential for further capital inflows[2][10]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is a reliable indicator of market sentiment, supporting timing and allocation decisions[2][10]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Profit-Making Effect - Current value: 3.73% (positive, indicating sustained market confidence)[2][10].

Group 1 - In June, China's manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and composite PMI rose to 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [1] - Domestic consumption policies have strengthened, with the Central Financial Committee emphasizing the need to address low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, which is expected to boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [1] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI increased to 49, while the ISM non-manufacturing index reached 50.8, both slightly above expectations, indicating a positive trend in the US economy [1] Group 2 - The US non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, significantly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% [1] - Initial jobless claims in the US dropped to 233,000, marking a six-week low, which has led to a reduction in the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July [1] - The Federal Reserve officials have signaled the possibility of an earlier rate cut, while trade agreements between the US and Vietnam, as well as progress with the EU, suggest positive developments in trade negotiations [1] Group 3 - A-shares are expected to cautiously trend upwards, with a focus on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress [1] - The bond market is experiencing reduced external risks and lower inflation expectations, leading to a strong short-term performance in bond prices [1] - The commodity market is showing overall fluctuations, with oil prices rebounding slightly, while the non-ferrous metals sector continues to show strong performance [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No such content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US "steel tariff" may be implemented today, and the tariff game and the intensification of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have increased geopolitical risks and global risk aversion. However, the market is waiting for negotiations between the US and its trading partners, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and an overall increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's May PMI data has rebounded, and the economy is expanding, which helps boost domestic risk appetite. Although the US has raised steel and aluminum tariffs, the expected call between Chinese and US leaders this week also boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to cautiously go long; government bonds are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see; among commodity sectors, black metals are expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see; non-ferrous metals are expected to rebound with fluctuations, and it is advisable to cautiously go long; energy and chemicals are expected to rebound with fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals are expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level, and it is advisable to cautiously go long [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Finance - **Overseas Situation**: The US "steel tariff" may be implemented today, and the tariff game and the intensification of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have increased geopolitical risks and global risk aversion. The market is waiting for negotiations between the US and its trading partners, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and an overall increase in global risk appetite [2]. - **Domestic Situation**: China's May PMI data has rebounded, and the economy is expanding, which helps boost domestic risk appetite. Although the US has raised steel and aluminum tariffs, the expected call between Chinese and US leaders this week also boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Asset Performance**: The stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to cautiously go long; government bonds are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see; among commodity sectors, black metals are expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see; non-ferrous metals are expected to rebound with fluctuations, and it is advisable to cautiously go long; energy and chemicals are expected to rebound with fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals are expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level, and it is advisable to cautiously go long [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market continued to rise slightly, driven by sectors such as biomedicine, precious metals, and football concepts. China's May PMI data has rebounded, and the economy is expanding, which helps boost domestic risk appetite. Although the US has raised steel and aluminum tariffs, the expected call between Chinese and US leaders this week also boosts domestic risk appetite. The market is currently focused on US trade policies and trade negotiation progress, which may increase market volatility. It is advisable to cautiously go long in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - Precious metals fluctuated and declined on Tuesday due to the strengthening of the US dollar. COMEX gold futures for August delivery fell 0.6% to $3377 per ounce. US labor data showed signs of cooling. The market is awaiting the employment report on Friday, with an expected increase of 130,000 non-farm payrolls in May and a possible rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. Geopolitical risks and policy - related games may increase the volatility of precious metals. The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains stable, and it is advisable to look for long - term investment opportunities after periodic corrections [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to decline on Tuesday, with low trading volumes. The US raising steel tariffs has intensified market pessimism. The market is entering the off - season, and iron ore production has declined for three consecutive weeks, reflecting weak demand. However, steel production is still increasing due to good profits. The steel market will remain weak in the short term, and it is advisable to consider inter - period positive spreads [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore futures and spot prices declined on Tuesday. Although iron ore production has declined, steel mills are still profitable, and there are differences in the market's expectations for the decline path of iron ore production. Global iron ore shipments and arrivals have increased this week, and this trend is expected to continue in the second - quarter peak season. FMG has postponed the production of the Iron Bridge project. Iron ore port inventories are decreasing. It is advisable to take a bearish view in the short term [8]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Silicon manganese and silicon iron spot prices declined on Tuesday. The demand for ferroalloys is fair as the production of major steel products has increased slightly. The price of silicon manganese in the north and south markets is 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton. The manganese ore market is cautious. The production of silicon manganese has increased slightly, mainly in Inner Mongolia and Guilin. The price of silicon iron in the main production areas is 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton for 72 - grade and 5800 - 5950 yuan/ton for 75 - grade. The raw material price of blue charcoal is weak, and downstream procurement is sluggish. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [8]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Canadian wildfires have disrupted oil supply, offsetting the impact of OPEC+ production increases. The fire in Alberta, Canada, has shut down 350,000 barrels per day of heavy oil production, more than three - quarters of OPEC+'s recent production increase. US job vacancies also support oil prices. Geopolitical risks are rising due to the US - Iran nuclear agreement issue. Oil prices will be more volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to monitor the progress of the Iran nuclear agreement negotiation and the Russia - Ukraine conflict [7]. - **Asphalt**: As oil prices rise, asphalt prices have rebounded after a decline. Demand has recovered to a limited extent. The basis in major consumption areas has declined, and the futures structure has weakened. After the profit recovery, production has increased, and inventory depletion has stagnated. As the peak demand season approaches, it is advisable to monitor inventory depletion. Asphalt prices will fluctuate at a high level in the short term, following oil prices [7]. - **PX**: The external price of PX remains high, and the PXN spread is around 270. Short - term maintenance is relatively high, and with the support of oil prices, PX will maintain a strong and volatile trend. However, after the reduction of polyester downstream production, PTA may reduce long - term contracts, which may affect PX demand in the future. There is a slight risk of a decline in PX prices later [7]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis remains at a high level of +210, but the 9 - 1 spread has dropped by 50 points. After the restart of some devices, more devices will end maintenance in June, and supply will increase. Downstream production cuts will continue, and PTA is likely to accumulate inventory in June. It is advisable to enter the market on the right - hand side when the spread declines [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The coal - based supply of ethylene glycol will gradually recover, and inventory will decrease in the short term, but it needs to reach 500,000 tons. Downstream production cuts have a negative impact, and low imports limit supply growth. It will continue to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for a rebound [9]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber prices are in a weak and volatile pattern. Terminal orders have recovered less than expected, and short - fiber prices have weakened. Downstream production is expected to decrease in the short term, and orders from the US may slow down. Although short - fiber inventory has decreased, it is necessary to monitor the sustainability of spinning mill operations. It will continue to fluctuate in the short term [9]. - **Methanol**: The Jiangsu Maritime Bureau has restricted ships over 25 years old from berthing in the Yangtze River, which has strengthened the basis in June. On June 3, 2025, the daily loss of Chinese methanol plants due to maintenance or production cuts was 17,050 tons. Some plants have resumed production, and some have started new maintenance. Import arrivals have increased, and port and inland inventories are rising slightly. Although low inventory supports prices in the short term, with increasing supply, inventory is expected to rise faster, and prices may decline in the long term. It is advisable to monitor import arrivals and wait for the situation to become clear [10]. - **PP**: The polypropylene market is consolidating within a range. The output of PP is increasing, and new device production is being realized. Supply pressure will increase from June to July, while demand is in the off - season transition. With weak oil prices, the price center is likely to move down. It is advisable to monitor device maintenance and oil price fluctuations [11]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price is adjusting. The price has declined in different regions. The industrial inventory is okay, but demand is in the off - season. Supply pressure has been relieved due to previous device maintenance, but devices are expected to restart, and new devices will be put into production in June. With weak oil prices, polyethylene prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: LME copper prices rose above $9600 overnight. The market expects the US to impose a 50% tariff on copper after raising tariffs on steel and aluminum. The copper ore supply is tight, and the copper concentrate TC has continued to decline, but the decline has slowed. Copper concentrate port inventories are high, and TC may stabilize soon. Copper production is at a high level, and there is no incentive to cut production. Demand is approaching the off - season, and there is a risk of a marginal decline in demand. If production remains high and demand weakens, inventory will increase. It will fluctuate in the short term [12][13]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum prices fluctuated overnight. The US raising aluminum tariffs will increase non - US supply. Aluminum production is at a high level, and Russian aluminum imports have increased significantly. Aluminum demand has exceeded expectations from March to May, but this growth rate is unsustainable. Demand is expected to decline marginally, and the export rush will slow down the decline. Aluminum inventory is decreasing significantly, and it may fall to around 500,000 tons at the end of May. There is no major negative factor in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [13]. - **Tin**: On the supply side, the domestic tin ore supply is tight, and processing fees are low. The combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has dropped by nearly 2%. There are rumors of the resumption of production in the Wa region of Myanmar, but these rumors have not been confirmed and may change. On the demand side, the integrated circuit industry is growing rapidly, PVC production is high, but terminal electronics are weak, and the market is entering the off - season. After the price decline, downstream enterprises have replenished inventory, and inventory has decreased by 1261 tons. Tin prices have stabilized in the short term, but high - tariff risks, resumption of production expectations, and a marginal decline in demand will put pressure on prices [14]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The rise in US crude oil prices by nearly 2% has boosted CBOT soybean and corn futures. The possible meeting between US and Chinese leaders this week has restored market risk appetite. The weather in US soybean - producing areas is stable with high temperatures, and there is no continuous weather premium. CBOT soybeans are expected to trade within a range in the short term [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in oil mills is expected to recover, and the weak basis will be realized. There is no strong driving force for the rise of US soybeans, so soybean meal lacks a stable upward support. For rapeseed meal, the low inventory of Canadian rapeseed and potential drought risks in the new season have tightened domestic rapeseed imports, and the supply outlook is uncertain. Rapeseed meal is in the peak demand season, and port inventory may decrease. However, the downstream acceptance of high prices is limited. If the USDA report strengthens the expectation of a US soybean harvest, soybean meal premiums may decline. Rapeseed meal has relatively strong support, and the spread between soybean and rapeseed meal may narrow [15]. - **Oils and Fats**: The rebound in the crude oil market has driven up the prices of US soybean oil and oilseeds. The domestic market has risen with the expected increase in costs. BMD palm oil futures rose, supported by improved export demand. Malaysian palm oil exports increased significantly in May. After India reduced the import tariff on crude edible oil, palm oil futures rose in the Chinese market, supported by improved demand prospects [16]. - **Pigs**: After the holiday, the pressure on pig farms to sell pigs is low at the beginning of the month, and demand is in the off - season, resulting in weak supply and demand. As large - scale pig farms increase sales and the market reduces pig weights, pig prices may continue to decline. Pig prices are stable in the short term, and there is a high basis and large discount for near - term contracts. With the position limit for the 07 contract, there may be a price increase for near - term contracts [17][18]. - **Corn**: After the holiday, the concentrated listing of new wheat may replace some corn feed consumption. High inventory and warehouse receipts may put pressure on corn prices in the short term. However, after the wheat harvest, corn demand will recover, imports will decrease, and port inventory will deplete faster. As long as the expectation of a future price increase remains, corn prices will be supported in the short term and may trade within a range [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term maintain A - share four major stock index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) as short - term cautious long; commodities as cautious wait - and - see; treasury bonds as cautious wait - and - see; ranking: stock index > treasury bonds > commodities [2] - Commodity strategy ranking: precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy > black metals [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, in Q1 2025, the economy grew strongly and exceeded market expectations. The US's signal of trade relaxation and the Politburo meeting's indication of new incremental policies supported the domestic market sentiment. Internationally, the US economy slowed due to the decline in service - sector prosperity, but the US released positive signals on tariffs, which affected the dollar and global risk appetite. Overall, the domestic market rebounded in the short term, with the stock index maintained for cautious long, the bond market in high - level short - term oscillation, and the commodity market showing different trends [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Important News and Events - The IMF significantly lowered the global economic growth forecast in its April report, with the US economic growth forecast cut by 0.9 percentage points in 2025 [3] - The US President called for the Fed to cut interest rates, mentioned cryptocurrency regulation, and said the US - China trade tension would ease and might "significantly reduce" tariffs on China [3][4] - The Fed's Beige Book showed that international trade policy uncertainty led to a slowdown in the US economic outlook [4] - US economic data such as PMI, initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, consumer confidence index, and inflation expectations were released, showing a mixed economic situation [4][5] - The European Central Bank's president mentioned the negative impact of tariffs on economic growth, and the ECB's survey adjusted the euro - zone economic growth and inflation forecasts [5][9] - China's 4 - month LPR remained unchanged, and the central bank increased liquidity support through MLF operations. The Politburo meeting proposed a series of economic stimulus policies [7][8][9] 3.2 This Week's Important Events and Economic Data Reminders - From April 28 to May 2, various industrial data, economic sentiment indices, consumer confidence indices, and housing price indices in different regions will be released [10] 3.3 Global Asset Price Movements - Stock markets: Different stock indices showed different daily, weekly, monthly, and year - to - date changes, with some rising and some falling [11] - Bond markets: Yields of 10 - year bonds in different countries changed, with some rising and some falling [11] - Commodity markets: Prices of various commodities such as steel, iron ore, copper, aluminum, oil, and precious metals had different price changes [11] - Exchange rates: The dollar index, exchange rates between major currencies also had corresponding fluctuations [11] 3.4 Domestic High - Frequency Macroeconomic Data - Upstream: Data on commodity price indices, energy prices, coal consumption and inventory, and iron ore prices and inventory were presented through various charts [13][16][23] - Midstream: Information on steel prices, production, and inventory, non - ferrous metal prices and inventory, building material prices and capacity utilization, and chemical product prices and inventory were shown [41][51][57] - Downstream: Data on real estate transaction area, automobile sales and tire production, and agricultural product prices were provided [70][72][79] 3.5 Domestic and Foreign Liquidity - Global liquidity: The US Treasury yield curve and its weekly changes were presented [81] - Domestic liquidity: Central bank's open - market operations, reverse - repurchase maturities, and domestic interest rates such as inter - bank lending rates and bond yields were shown [83][90][94] 3.6 Global Financial Calendar - From April 27 to May 2, important economic indicators such as industrial enterprise profits, economic sentiment indices, consumer confidence indices, housing price indices, GDP, inflation rates, employment data, and central bank policy announcements in different countries and regions will be released [102]