Economic Performance - In October, the industrial production growth rate decreased to 4.9%, down from 6.5% in September[11] - Fixed asset investment from January to October fell by 1.7%, with private investment down by 4.5%[11][18] - Real estate investment saw a significant decline of 14.7% year-on-year, worsening by 0.8 percentage points[19] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment grew by 2.7%, but the growth rate decreased by 1.3 percentage points[18][26] - Infrastructure investment turned negative with a year-on-year decline of 0.1%[18][26] - Excluding real estate, project investment increased by 1.7% year-on-year[18][26] Consumer Behavior - The total retail sales of consumer goods in October reached 46,291 billion yuan, growing by 2.9% year-on-year, a slight decrease from the previous month[11][21] - Retail sales excluding automobiles grew by 4.0%, indicating a rebound in other consumer sectors[21][25] - Jewelry consumption saw significant growth, while automobile sales turned negative[21][25] Economic Outlook - The GDP growth for the first three quarters was 5.2%, indicating a foundation for achieving annual targets[5][29] - New policy measures, including 500 billion yuan in financial tools, aim to stabilize fixed investment and stimulate consumption[5][29] - Continued focus on releasing domestic demand potential is essential for the fourth quarter[5][29] Risk Factors - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in US-China policies[6][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report Market Logic - Overseas: The US government ended over 40 days of shutdown this week, but the release of key economic data is still delayed. September non - farm payrolls and Q3 GDP data are expected to be announced in the next two weeks. October employment and inflation data may be distorted, hindering the Fed's policy guidance. The market believes there is a higher probability that the Fed will not cut interest rates in December. The end of the shutdown could theoretically boost market risk appetite as fiscal policy can continue to play a role. The TGA account has increased by thousands of billions during the shutdown, exceeding one trillion dollars, and its release is expected to boost the US economy [6]. - Domestic: In October, the year - on - year growth rates of M1 and M2 both declined. M1 growth dropped from 7.2% to 6.2%, and M2 growth slightly fell to 8.2%. The gap between them widened again, indicating a decrease in capital activation. New social financing was 815 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.5% (previous value 8.7%). Government bond net financing was 489.3 billion yuan, a significant year - on - year decrease. Credit contraction, especially the weakness of long - term household loans, was the main drag, related to real estate spending. M1 growth decline was affected by weak overall social financing, slower corporate capital activation, and the transfer of household deposits to non - bank institutions. M2 growth was pressured by the slowdown of fiscal expenditure and government bond issuance. The current low - interest - rate environment may promote the conversion of deposit structure to demand deposits, supporting M1, while the future trend of M2 still depends on credit issuance rhythm and the implementation of loose policies such as policy - based financial tools [7]. - In October, the industrial added - value growth rate slowed from 6.5% to 4.9%, and the service production index dropped to 4.6%, the lowest point of the year, indicating weakened production momentum. This decline was dragged down by both external and internal demand. Externally, export growth slowed; internally, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, lower than market expectations, and weak investment and consumption were mutually confirmed, highlighting insufficient effective demand. Industry performance was significantly differentiated. Traditional industries were affected by the "anti - involution" policy, with significantly reduced operating rates, while high - tech manufacturing industries such as railway and ship transportation equipment and integrated circuits maintained high - speed growth [8]. - From a meso - perspective, this week's high - frequency economic activity index was active, at a high level in recent years. In building materials, the demand for PVC and glass improved. The operating rate of copper rods rebounded from a low level. The operating rate of photovoltaic glass has been declining rapidly since the "anti - involution" policy was proposed, but it gradually stabilized in late October, stopping the previous rapid decline [8]. - Under the influence of multiple factors such as the Fed's hawkish signals, global stock markets fluctuated significantly this week, driving the adjustment of multiple assets such as precious metals and digital currencies. As long as global fiscal and monetary policies remain loose, the technology theme still has investment value, and cyclical investments in resource - based sectors such as non - ferrous metals and chemicals are also timely. Precious metals should be used as a hedging tool to prevent tail risks [8]. Logic of Major Asset Classes | Major Asset Class | Logic | Allocation Suggestion | | --- | --- | --- | | Stocks | Medium - to - long - term logic: Global fiscal and monetary policies work together; domestic PPI and industrial enterprise profits have bottomed out, and "anti - involution" promotes recovery; capital flows, with deposit and wealth - management funds transferring, and foreign capital waiting to enter due to RMB appreciation; stable global demand and improved Sino - US relations lay the foundation for increased risk appetite. Short - term logic: Changes in Sino - Dutch and Sino - Japanese relations affect market risk appetite; valuations have reached extremely high levels in the past three years, and further increases require improved profit expectations; the probability of a Fed rate cut in December has decreased. | Long - term overweight, neutral allocation in November, with structural opportunities [9] | | Bonds | Medium - to - long - term logic: Limited room for domestic interest - rate cuts; the "unified large market" (including "anti - involution") promotes inflation and economic improvement; the stock - bond seesaw effect. Short - term logic: Bond yields have risen significantly compared to mid - year; the central bank has restarted treasury bond trading; the economic momentum in Q4 lacks explosive power. | Long - term underweight, neutral allocation in November [9] | | Commodities | Medium - to - long - term logic: Fiscal and monetary policies boost the economy, and PPI will turn positive next year; the Fed cuts interest rates, and the US dollar weakens; short - duration attributes with lower elasticity than stocks. Short - term logic: Weak demand; weak policy expectations in Q4. | Long - term overweight precious metals and non - ferrous metals. Precious metals will fluctuate from November to December, non - ferrous metals will be relatively strong, and there are trading opportunities in "anti - involution" related varieties [9] | Sector Logic - Precious metals: Still worth long - term allocation from a major asset allocation perspective to hedge against currency credit risks. Silver generally follows gold with more elastic upward pulses. This week, silver rose significantly, and precious metals as a whole soared and then回调ed significantly on Friday night, mainly due to the impact of global risk - asset fluctuations on liquidity. Long - term allocation can continue despite the lack of short - term drivers [14]. - Base metals: Metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, and tin face supply disruptions, with a tight medium - to - long - term supply situation, and there are more technology - related narratives (AI, robots, etc.) on the demand side, so they are still regarded as bullish. Basic metals are breaking through and rising. New - energy metals such as lithium carbonate have rebounded significantly recently due to the "anti - involution" policy, and polysilicon and industrial silicon are also subject to supply - side regulation, and their subsequent market trends are expected to continue [15]. - Black commodities: The current situation is influenced by the "anti - involution" policy and the arrival of the peak season, remaining relatively warm. The NDRC requires coal supply guarantee, changing the logic of production cuts due to safety inspections, so coal prices are weak, but it can still be bought on dips based on the peak - season and "anti - involution" logic [15]. - Energy and chemicals: Pay attention to the impact of raw materials on the overall valuation of the sector. Recently, crude oil prices have strengthened due to the situation in Venezuela. Without the expansion of the conflict, there is no condition for continuous upward movement, but also no continuous downward momentum under the background that OPEC+ is about to stop increasing supply, so it is expected to fluctuate with short - term strength. For downstream chemical products, after the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of long - term profit expansion, but no short - term drivers [15]. - Agricultural products: In the oil sector, the differentiation continues, with P showing a reverse spread and rapeseed - soybean showing a positive spread, with a medium - term oscillatory trend and both supply and demand increasing. Protein meal is oscillating strongly in the short term with relatively low valuation, and its medium - term trend depends on South American production, with a weak expectation. Corn is under pressure from autumn harvest and oscillating weakly. The supply - demand pressure of live pigs has eased, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a range; the demand for eggs has declined, and the futures price is expected to oscillate downward. In the short term, the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere has become a reality for sugar, and it is still searching for a bottom; in the long - term, the global sugar market is in an increasing - production cycle and is regarded as bearish. For cotton, the latest USDA data in October has a negative impact on global cotton prices, and domestic commercial cotton inventories are higher than last year, so it is oscillating weakly in the short term; in the long - term, domestic cotton prices are at a relatively low level with no effective drivers, and macro - level disturbances should be monitored [16]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Core Views - Overseas and domestic economic situations, production and demand conditions, and major asset and sector investment logics are comprehensively analyzed, and corresponding investment suggestions are provided [6][7][8][9][14][15][16]. 02 Quantitative Analysis - The weights of major asset sub - sectors in the current and previous periods are presented. The recent one - week, one - month, year - to - date, and three - month returns, valuations, volatilities, trend smoothness, and speculation degrees of stocks, bonds, and commodities are also given. It is also mentioned that the correlation between major asset classes has increased recently, while the correlation within the commodity sector has decreased [19][20][21][22]. 03 Macro Overview - Domestically, in October, the unemployment rate of non - local household registration decreased significantly, the manufacturing PMI declined significantly, the M1 growth rate decreased, and the gap between M1 and M2 widened again. Both CPI and PPI rebounded. Overseas, the US PMI in October increased moderately [26][30][32][33][35]. 04 Meso Data - Based on the comparison of meso - level data of each module with the same period in the past five years, scores are given according to the degree of change. Economic activity indicators have returned to normal levels. In the real - estate sector, multiple indicators are at the bottom, while the demand for glass and PVC has increased [41][42][45].

General Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for different asset classes, it offers specific short - term investment suggestions: - For stocks and bonds, short - term cautious long positions are recommended; for commodities, different sectors have different suggestions, including cautious long, cautious short, and cautious observation [3]. Core Views - Overseas, the US labor market shows signs of deterioration, the dollar index is falling, but the potential end of the long - term shutdown boosts global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic growth has slowed in October, but inflation data has recovered, and the central bank's policies have increased liquidity and boosted domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has strengthened, and the market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and economic growth [3][4]. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - **Market Conditions**: Overseas, the ADP predicts a decline in US private - sector jobs, the dollar index is falling, and the potential end of the shutdown boosts global risk appetite. Domestically, China's manufacturing and export data in October are weak, but inflation data has recovered, and the central bank's policies have increased liquidity [3]. - **Investment Suggestions**: Stocks and bonds are expected to rebound in the short - term, with cautious long positions. For commodities, black metals are in short - term shock, with cautious observation; non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and some other sectors are in short - term shock and rebound, with cautious long positions; energy and chemical sectors are in short - term shock, with cautious observation [3]. Stocks - **Market Conditions**: Affected by sectors such as artificial intelligence, consumer electronics, and insurance, the domestic stock market has declined slightly. China's economic growth has slowed, but inflation data has recovered, and policies have boosted risk appetite [4]. - **Investment Suggestions**: Stocks are expected to rebound in the short - term, with cautious long positions [4]. Precious Metals - **Market Conditions**: The precious metals market rose on Tuesday night. The expectation of the US government ending the shutdown and potential Fed rate cuts has boosted prices. Spot gold has reached a high since October 23 [4]. - **Investment Suggestions**: Precious metals are in short - term shock and rebound, with a long - term upward trend. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended, and long - term buying on dips is advised [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Spot prices were flat on Tuesday, and futures prices continued to fluctuate. The change in coking coal supply expectations and the decline in coking coal prices have led to a weakening of the steel market. Demand is weak, and supply has decreased. The short - term market may continue to weaken, but the decline below 3000 points for rebar is limited [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Futures and spot prices weakened slightly on Tuesday. Steel mills' losses have accelerated production cuts, and iron ore demand may further decline. Supply has decreased, but port inventories have increased. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a range [7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Spot prices were flat on Tuesday, and futures prices weakened slightly. Steel production has declined, reducing ferroalloy demand. Manganese ore prices are firm, and supply has decreased slightly. The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: There are differences within the Fed on interest rate cuts. US copper inventories are at a high level, and there is a risk of the Panama copper mine restarting. Domestic de - stocking is less than expected, but the shutdown of an Indonesian copper mine supports prices. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Tuesday, Shanghai aluminum declined slightly. The market is worried about future supply shortages, but domestic de - stocking is difficult. The short - term price is expected to be strong, but there may be a significant correction later [10]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is still tight, and the demand is weak. Tin ingot inventories have increased. The short - to - medium - term price is expected to be supported at the bottom but pressured at the top, with high - level fluctuations [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the lithium carbonate futures contract rose on Tuesday. The market has digested negative news, and the demand logic is dominant. The price is expected to be strong with fluctuations, but supply - side disturbances and hedging pressure need attention [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the industrial silicon futures contract declined on Tuesday. Supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Buying on dips is recommended [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of the polysilicon futures contract declined on Tuesday. There is a game between strong policy expectations and weak reality. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and buying on dips is recommended [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The weakness of the crude oil market is offset by the high premium of refined oil products. Supply concerns and technical buying support the price. The short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate [15]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt has rebounded slightly following crude oil, but the rebound space is limited. There is pressure on inventory accumulation, and supply pressure is increasing. Attention should be paid to the cost fluctuations of crude oil [15]. - **PX**: PX has weakened slightly. PTA's high - level operation provides some demand support. The PXN spread has rebounded slightly, and PX is still in a tight supply situation. Attention should be paid to cost changes [16]. - **PTA**: The expectation of inventory accumulation from November to December has decreased, but the actual production cut is not highly confirmed, and there is still a risk of inventory accumulation later [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol has declined again and is still under pressure. Port inventories have increased significantly, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation in mid - to - late November [16]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber has declined slightly following the polyester sector, and there is still pressure in the later period. The follow - up upward space may be limited [17]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market has weakened. There is pressure on inventory accumulation, and the price is expected to decline with fluctuations, but the decline rate may slow down [17][18]. - **PP**: The price of polypropylene is expected to continue to decline. Demand improvement is limited, and supply is increasing. Cost support is insufficient [18]. - **LLDPE**: The price of polyethylene is expected to continue to be under pressure. Supply pressure is increasing, demand is weakening, and cost support is insufficient [19]. - **Urea**: The urea market is stable with a slight decline. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is differentiated. The short - term market is expected to continue to weaken slightly [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean price has declined. The market is optimistic about Sino - US soybean trade relations. Attention should be paid to USDA reports. If the USDA lowers the yield per unit, the US soybean's ending inventory will shrink, strengthening the cost - repair logic [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply of soybean meal is loose, and the basis is weak. With the improvement of Sino - US agricultural trade relations, the cost of imported soybeans has increased, and the risk of future shortages has decreased. Rapeseed meal generally follows the soybean meal market [20]. - **Oils**: Palm oil has entered the production - reduction cycle, and the market is weak and stable. The supply - demand situation of soybean oil is still unbalanced, and the price is stable within a range. Rapeseed oil inventories are decreasing, and the basis is strengthening [22]. - **Corn**: The futures price has risen continuously, driving up the price in the Northeast production area. Inventories are low, and the price is expected to be stable with a slight increase [22]. - **Pigs**: The planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms in November has decreased, and the supply pressure has eased. Demand has increased with the cooling weather. The pork price is expected to be weak and stable, and the futures price may be supported [22].

Group 1 - The market is expected to enter a phase of "self-centered" development following the recent US-China meeting, with a focus on domestic economic indicators and the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes upgrading traditional industries, technological self-reliance, and boosting domestic demand, which are key areas for investment [1] - The A-share market is likely to experience a period of consolidation after reaching a high point, with potential investment opportunities in the energy storage industry, cyclical industries, and traditional manufacturing upgrades [1] Group 2 - The market is anticipated to have a volatile performance in November, with limited upward and downward movement, focusing on sectors with reversal expectations such as AI applications and innovative pharmaceuticals [2] - Despite recent underperformance, the medical technology sector, including AI healthcare, is seen as a potential area for capital rotation, especially if industry trends continue to evolve positively [3] - There is a cautious optimism regarding the financial sector, with banks and insurance companies expected to see performance improvements in the coming year [5] Group 3 - Consumer demand is projected to have opportunities in the coming year due to low stock prices and a low base in consumption this year, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [6] - The long-term outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector remains positive, with expectations of upward price movements due to supply constraints [6] - The overseas expansion of Chinese companies in capital goods and consumer goods is viewed as a significant opportunity for growth [7] Group 4 - The market is expected to maintain a cautious optimism in the short term, with limited new capital inflow but a significant amount of capital waiting for a market correction to enter [8] - There is a focus on sectors with independent industrial logic and low correlation to overall economic trends, indicating a potential for structural market performance [9] - The ongoing US-China trade tensions are likely to lead to a prolonged period of market adjustments, with an emphasis on self-sufficiency and resource value reassessment [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed a pattern of first decline and then rise, with attention on policy expectations and the possible correction of the current off-peak season expectation. There are risks such as intensified China-US tariff friction, the US government shutdown, and geopolitical risks, while there are also investment opportunities in commodities like gold, non-ferrous metals, etc. [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, the gap between strong expectations and weak reality has widened. In August, the economic pressure increased marginally, with economic data showing characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and sluggish consumption", and external tariff pressure rising. To counter the external pressure, China has frequently mentioned stable growth policies, with new policy-based financial instruments totaling 500 billion yuan. In the first three quarters, China's goods trade imports and exports reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and in September, exports (in RMB) increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and imports increased by 7.5%. On October 13, the A-share market opened lower and closed higher, with sectors such as rare earths leading the rise. [1][5] - China-US tariff friction has intensified. As the postponement of China-US tariffs is about to expire on November 10, the US has taken measures such as adding Chinese enterprises to the entity list and imposing additional tariffs on various imported products. China has responded with export control measures on the rare earth industry chain. There are concerns about the risk of tariff escalation before the South Korea APEC Summit from October 28 to November 1. [2] - The US government shutdown has entered its third week after the Senate rejected the temporary funding bill in the sixth round of voting on October 8. Trump has repeatedly said he will use the shutdown to dismiss federal employees, and US economic data releases have been affected. The market may have underestimated the severity of the shutdown. [2] Commodity Analysis - In the commodity market, attention is mainly on gold, non-ferrous metals, etc. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The long-term supply constraint in the non-ferrous sector remains unresolved, and it has been boosted by global easing expectations recently. The energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term, with OPEC+ planning to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The first-phase ceasefire agreement in Gaza has taken effect. In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" space of varieties such as methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worth noting. Agricultural products are driven by tariff and inflation expectations in the short term but need signals from the fundamentals and attention to the impact of China-US negotiations. Precious metals, especially gold, are expected to continue to strengthen, with the spot gold rising 2% on October 13 and COMEX silver rising 6% to a high since the end of 2012, mainly driven by risk aversion. [3] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals on dips. [4] Key News - In the first three quarters, China's goods trade exports were 19.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, and imports were 13.66 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. In September, exports (in RMB) increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and imports increased by 7.5%. The trade surplus was 645.47 billion yuan. In September, exports (in US dollars) increased by 8.3% year-on-year, and imports increased by 7.4%. The trade surplus was 90.45 billion US dollars. [5] - China's rare earth exports in September were 4,000.3 tons, and imports were 6,864.7 tons. From January to September, the total rare earth exports were 48,355.7 tons. [5] - On October 13, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.19% to 3,889.5 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.93%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.11%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell 1.29%, and the STAR 50 rose 1.4%. The A-share market turnover was 2.37 trillion yuan. Sectors such as rare earths and lithography machines led the rise, while consumer electronics, robotics, and CRO concepts led the decline. [5] - In the first three quarters, due to the decline in the prices of some international commodities, the import growth rate and data performance were affected. However, in terms of quantity, the import quantity index increased by 0.6% year-on-year. As of September, imports had increased for four consecutive months. Driven by domestic production and consumption demand, the imports of crude oil and metal ore sands increased by 2.6% and 4.2% respectively, and the imports of food, tobacco, alcohol, and cultural and entertainment products increased by 10.2% and 9.4% respectively. With the removal of restrictions on foreign investment access in the manufacturing sector, the imports of foreign-invested enterprises increased by 1.1%. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Domestic economic situation shows a gap between strong expectations and weak reality, with economic pressure increasing marginally in August, featuring "slow industry, weak investment, and dull consumption," and external tariff pressure rising. The government has introduced policies such as new policy - based financial tools worth 500 billion yuan and 1.1 trillion yuan of repurchase operations to address these issues. Attention should be paid to post - holiday policy expectations and the possible correction of the current off - peak season situation [2]. - Sino - US tariff friction has intensified. With the expiration of the tariff delay on November 10 approaching, the market's concern about the risks brought by tariff friction has risen rapidly. Before the South Korea APEC Summit from October 28 to November 1, the risk impact of tariff escalation on the market should be vigilant [3]. - The US government shutdown has entered its second week, and the market has under - priced the severity of the shutdown. Attention should be paid to the follow - up development of the event. In the commodity market, focus on sectors such as gold and non - ferrous metals, and also pay attention to the "anti - involution" space of some chemical products and the impact of Sino - US negotiations on agricultural products [4]. - In terms of strategy, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals in the commodity and stock index futures markets [5]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Domestic economic data in August showed signs of weakness, with external tariff pressure increasing from the US, Mexico, India, etc. The government has introduced policies to stabilize growth, including new policy - based financial tools and large - scale repurchase operations. Attention should be paid to post - holiday policy expectations and the possible correction of the off - peak season situation [2]. - Sino - US tariff friction has escalated. The US has taken measures such as adding Chinese enterprises to the entity list and increasing tariffs on imported products. China has responded with export controls on rare earths. Before the South Korea APEC Summit, the risk impact of tariff escalation on the market should be vigilant [3]. - The US government shutdown has entered its second week, affecting economic data release. The market has under - priced the severity of the shutdown. In the commodity market, different sectors have different trends, and gold is expected to strengthen [4]. Strategy - In the commodity and stock index futures markets, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals [5]. To - do List - On October 6, Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy - duty trucks starting from November 1, 2025. On September 25, he had announced a 25% tariff on all imported heavy - duty trucks starting from October 1 [6]. - The Fed's attitude towards the economy and inflation is complex. Some officials believe that continued easing may be appropriate this year, but inflation has upward risks, and employment has downward risks [6]. - China's central bank increased its gold reserves for the 11th consecutive month in September, and on October 9, it carried out 1.1 trillion yuan of repurchase operations [6]. - The first - stage Gaza cease - fire agreement came into effect on October 9, and Israel approved the agreement on October 10 [6]. - The US will impose additional port service fees on Chinese - owned or - operated ships starting from October 14, which seriously violates international trade principles and the Sino - US shipping agreement [6]. Macroeconomic Indicators - **US Economic Heat Map**: In September 2025, the GDP growth rate was 2.08%, the Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.00, and the service PMI was 54.20. Investment, employment, inflation, consumption, finance, and net exports all had corresponding data changes [8]. - **European Economic Heat Map**: In September 2025, the GDP growth rate was 1.30%, the manufacturing PMI was 49.80, and the service PMI was 51.30. There were also changes in investment, employment, consumption, inflation, trade, credit, and finance [9]. - **Chinese Economic Heat Map**: In the third quarter of 2025, the GDP growth rate was 5.2%. Trade, investment, consumption, inflation, finance, and other aspects had different trends, such as a 5.9% cumulative year - on - year increase in export volume and a 0.5% cumulative year - on - year increase in fixed - asset investment [10]. Interest Rates - The report provides data on the 10 - year and 2 - year Sino - US Treasury bond spreads [21]. Foreign Exchange - It includes data on the week - on - week change of the US dollar against major currencies and the trend of the US dollar index [24][26].

中信建投期货发布报告表示，美联储降息25BP符合市场预期。本次会议，美联储主要透露以下信息： 决策依据方面，虽然放宽了对通胀的要求以支持当下的降息动作，但后续降息幅度仍取决于长期通胀水 平与就业市场的脆弱程度；对经济的判断上，美国经济的滞胀周期会继续延长；对长期利率的判断上， 美联储的分歧进一步加剧。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 费天元）北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间，符合市场预期。这也是美联储自去年12月以来，时隔9个月再度降息。 北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间，符合 市场预期。这也是美联储自去年12月以来，时隔9个月再度降息。中信建投期货发布报告表示，美联储 降息25BP符合市场预期。本次会议，美联储主要透露以下信息：决策依据方面，虽然放宽了对通胀的 要求以支持当下的降息动作，但后续降息幅度仍取决于长期通胀水平与就业市场的脆弱程度；对经济的 判断上，美国经济的滞胀周期会继续延长；对长期利率的判断上，美联储的分歧进一步加剧。 在大宗商品的演绎上，中信建投期货表示，此前市场抢 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the divergence in commodity markets, highlighting the lack of intrinsic demand momentum as a key obstacle for bullish narratives, contrasting with the robust performance of capital markets [5][6]. Group 1: Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market is experiencing a split, with bullish sentiment being challenged by a lack of internal demand momentum, which is crucial for sustaining price increases [5]. - In the energy sector, particularly crude oil, rising inventories have weakened bullish momentum, and despite geopolitical tensions, there is no significant bullish trend in prices [6]. - The EIA has revised down its 2025 demand growth forecast to 900,000 barrels per day, likely linked to the U.S. economic outlook, while OPEC's recent decisions to increase production reflect a persistent oversupply situation expected to last until early 2026 [6]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Key judgments to make include whether the market's second pricing of supply pressures and weak demand is nearing a marginal end and if the current downward volatility in commodities has reached a bottom, potentially leading to an upward shift in volatility following the Fed's interest rate decisions [7]. - The article suggests continuing to embrace the bullish logic surrounding precious metals, as the self-fulfilling nature of expectations could drive prices higher, although caution is advised regarding potential corrections following interest rate announcements [8]. - Focus on commodities with bullish trading opportunities, particularly those with supply constraints, such as coking coal and polysilicon, while also monitoring external variables affecting supply [8]. Group 3: Export and Demand Trends - The article highlights that China's export sector shows potential for exceeding expectations, with a reported export value of 17.61 trillion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [9]. - The structure of exports is improving, with high-value and high-tech products seeing significant growth, such as integrated circuits and automotive exports, which are expected to support demand for basic metals [9]. - The diversification of export markets is also noted, with significant growth in trade with emerging markets, particularly ASEAN and Africa, indicating reduced reliance on single markets [9]. Group 4: Specific Commodity Insights - The article points out that global aluminum demand is expected to grow by 3% year-on-year, while production growth remains sluggish at around 1.5%, suggesting potential upward price elasticity for aluminum [10]. - The current visible inventory of aluminum is approximately 1.13 million tons, which, while slightly up from the year's low, remains significantly below levels seen in 2024, indicating a potential for price increases [10]. - The relationship between alumina and aluminum has weakened, suggesting that trading strategies focusing on long aluminum and short alumina could have further potential [10].

Group 1 - The market is transitioning from extreme differentiation to a phase of rotation and diffusion, with structural changes being more important than rhythm in a healthy bull market [1][4] - The industry rotation intensity indicator has started to recover from previous lows, indicating that the market is seeking opportunities through rotation and diffusion [1][4] - Seasonal patterns suggest that September is a traditional window for industry rotation to increase, providing opportunities for new growth directions [5][8] Group 2 - The focus should be on expanding based on economic and industrial trends rather than merely seeking low positions, enhancing the probability of success [8][10] - The second half of September to October is a period where the effectiveness of economic investments is expected to improve, with stock prices becoming more correlated with performance as the third-quarter reporting period approaches [8][10] Group 3 - Key sectors to focus on include Hong Kong internet, innovative pharmaceuticals, new energy, new consumption, and cyclical industries (non-ferrous metals, chemicals) [15][19] - The Hong Kong internet sector has significant room for rebound due to macroeconomic conditions and industry trends, particularly with the upcoming interest rate cuts and advancements in AI [16][19] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector has seen sufficient emotional digestion, with leading companies like BeiGene and WuXi AppTec showing strong performance [21][22] Group 4 - The new energy sector is expected to attract funds seeking flexible returns, driven by technological breakthroughs and a reversal of previous downturns [23][26] - The new consumption sector is positioned for potential gains due to low crowding and seasonal catalysts from upcoming holidays, making it a promising area for investment [29][32] Group 5 - The cyclical industries (non-ferrous metals, chemicals) are benefiting from overseas monetary easing and a reversal of previous competitive pressures, providing multiple catalysts for growth [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall production heat has declined, with the operating rates of blast furnaces, asphalt, and PTA all decreasing, and the output of rebar decreasing, while the operating rate of tires has increased [2][32]. - The real - estate market has weakened marginally, with the transaction area of commercial housing decreasing and the land supply area increasing [2][32]. - The price trends are diverging. Crude oil, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products have risen, while coking coal and rebar have fallen. Agricultural product prices continue the seasonal upward trend [2][32]. - Shipping indices have continued to decline, including SCFI, CCFI, and BDI [2][32]. - In the short term, focus on the implementation of a new round of growth - stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real - estate market, and the impact of international geopolitical changes [2][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Production: The heat of blast furnaces, rebar, asphalt, and PTA has all declined, and the tire operating rate has increased - **Steel**: The coke oven capacity utilization rate increased by 0.04 pct, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.23 pct, and the rebar output decreased by 5.8 tons. The inventory increased by 2.27 tons [8]. - **Petroleum Asphalt**: The operating rate decreased by 2.2 pct [8]. - **Chemical Industry**: The PX operating rate remained flat compared with the previous week, while the PTA operating rate decreased by 7.52 pct [8]. - **Automobile Tires**: The operating rate of all - steel tires increased by 1.67 pct, and that of semi - steel tires increased by 1.06 pct [9]. 3.2 Demand: The transaction of commercial housing has continued to decline, and shipping indices have continued the downward trend - **Real Estate**: The transaction area of commercial housing continued to decline, and the inventory - to - sales ratio increased. The land supply area increased, and the transaction premium rate of residential land increased [14]. - **Movie Box Office**: It decreased by 399 million yuan compared with the previous week [14]. - **Automobile**: The daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 13,800 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 22,400 vehicles [17]. - **Shipping Indices**: SCFI decreased by 3.07%, CCFI decreased by 1.55%, and BDI decreased by 4.89% [20]. 3.3 Prices: Crude oil, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products have risen, while coking coal and rebar have fallen - **Energy**: The Brent crude oil price rose by 2.85% to $67.73 per barrel, and the coking coal futures price fell by 6.7% to 1,141.5 yuan per ton [22]. - **Metals**: The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +0.37%, +0.73%, and +0.32% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price decreased by 2.1% [23]. - **Agricultural Products**: The overall price continued the seasonal upward trend. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by +0.25%, +1.05%, +1.89%, and - 1.30% respectively compared with the previous week [25]. 3.4 Logistics: The number of international flights has decreased, and the congestion index in first - tier cities has continued to rise - **Subway Passenger Volume**: In Beijing, it decreased, while in Shanghai, it increased [28]. - **Executed Flight Volume**: Domestic flights increased slightly, and international flights decreased [29]. - **Urban Traffic**: The peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to rise [29]. 3.5 Summary: The overall production heat has declined, and the prices of crude oil and non - ferrous metals have risen The summary is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the changes in production, real - estate, prices, and shipping indices, and suggesting short - term focus areas [32].