证券研究报告：固定收益报告 生产热度整体回落，原油有色价格回升 ——高频数据跟踪 20250823 核心观点 高频经济数据关注点：第一，生产端热度整体回落，高炉、沥青、 PTA 开工率均下降，螺纹钢产量下降，轮胎开工率回升。第二，房地 产市场边际走弱，商品房成交面积下降，土地供应面积有所回升。第 三，物价走势分化，原油、有色价格上涨，焦煤、螺纹钢下跌，农产 品价格延续季节性上行趋势。第四，航运指数持续下行，SCFI、CCFI 及 BDI 均下降。短期重点关注新一轮稳增长刺激政策落地、房地产市 场恢复情况及国际地缘政治变动影响。 生产：高炉、螺纹钢、沥青、PTA 热度均下降，轮胎开工 率回升 发布时间：2025-08-25 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《生产热度回升，原油金属价格下降 ——高频数据跟踪 20250818》 - 2025.08.19 固收周报 8 月 22 日当周，焦炉产 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Timing System Signal (Wind All A Moving Average Distance Model) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the distance between the short-term moving average (20-day) and the long-term moving average (120-day) of the Wind All A Index to determine the market's overall trend. A positive and expanding distance indicates an upward trend[2][9]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the 20-day moving average (short-term) and the 120-day moving average (long-term) of the Wind All A Index. - Latest values: 20-day MA = 5658, 120-day MA = 5241[2][9]. 2. Compute the percentage difference between the two moving averages: $ \text{Distance} = \frac{\text{20-day MA} - \text{120-day MA}}{\text{120-day MA}} \times 100\% $ - Current distance = 7.96%[2][9]. 3. Interpret the signal: If the distance is greater than 3% and positive, the market is in an upward trend[2][9]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the market's upward momentum and provides a clear signal for maintaining high equity positions during positive trends[2][9]. 2. Model Name: Industry Allocation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies industries with potential for medium-term outperformance based on factors such as policy support, valuation, and growth trends[2][10]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Analyze industry-specific drivers, including policy incentives and growth catalysts. 2. Identify sectors with "distressed reversal" characteristics or benefiting from policy-driven growth. 3. Recommend sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, securities insurance, photovoltaics, coal, and non-ferrous metals. 4. Use the TWO BETA model to emphasize technology-related sectors, including military, computing power, and batteries[2][10]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides actionable insights for sector rotation, aligning with macroeconomic and policy trends[2][10]. 3. Model Name: Position Management Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model determines optimal equity allocation levels based on valuation metrics and market trends[3][10]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Assess valuation levels of the Wind All A Index using PE and PB ratios. - Current PE: 70th percentile (moderate level). - Current PB: 30th percentile (low level)[3][10]. 2. Combine valuation analysis with timing signals (e.g., moving average distance and profit-making effect). 3. Recommend equity allocation levels based on the above factors. - Current recommendation: 80% equity allocation[3][10]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model balances valuation and trend analysis, providing a systematic approach to equity allocation[3][10]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Timing System Signal - Moving average distance: 7.96% (greater than the 3% threshold, indicating an upward trend)[2][9]. 2. Industry Allocation Model - Recommended sectors: Innovative pharmaceuticals, securities insurance, photovoltaics, coal, non-ferrous metals, military, computing power, and batteries[2][10]. 3. Position Management Model - PE: 70th percentile (moderate level)[3][10]. - PB: 30th percentile (low level)[3][10]. - Recommended equity allocation: 80%[3][10]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Profit-Making Effect - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the market's ability to generate profits for investors, serving as a key indicator of market sentiment and potential capital inflows[2][10]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the profit-making effect value based on market performance. - Current value: 3.73% (positive)[2][10]. 2. Interpret the signal: A positive value indicates sustained investor confidence and potential for further capital inflows[2][10]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is a reliable indicator of market sentiment, supporting timing and allocation decisions[2][10]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Profit-Making Effect - Current value: 3.73% (positive, indicating sustained market confidence)[2][10].

Group 1 - In June, China's manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and composite PMI rose to 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [1] - Domestic consumption policies have strengthened, with the Central Financial Committee emphasizing the need to address low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, which is expected to boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [1] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI increased to 49, while the ISM non-manufacturing index reached 50.8, both slightly above expectations, indicating a positive trend in the US economy [1] Group 2 - The US non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, significantly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% [1] - Initial jobless claims in the US dropped to 233,000, marking a six-week low, which has led to a reduction in the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July [1] - The Federal Reserve officials have signaled the possibility of an earlier rate cut, while trade agreements between the US and Vietnam, as well as progress with the EU, suggest positive developments in trade negotiations [1] Group 3 - A-shares are expected to cautiously trend upwards, with a focus on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress [1] - The bond market is experiencing reduced external risks and lower inflation expectations, leading to a strong short-term performance in bond prices [1] - The commodity market is showing overall fluctuations, with oil prices rebounding slightly, while the non-ferrous metals sector continues to show strong performance [1]

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term maintain A - share four major stock index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) as short - term cautious long; commodities as cautious wait - and - see; treasury bonds as cautious wait - and - see; ranking: stock index > treasury bonds > commodities [2] - Commodity strategy ranking: precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy > black metals [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, in Q1 2025, the economy grew strongly and exceeded market expectations. The US's signal of trade relaxation and the Politburo meeting's indication of new incremental policies supported the domestic market sentiment. Internationally, the US economy slowed due to the decline in service - sector prosperity, but the US released positive signals on tariffs, which affected the dollar and global risk appetite. Overall, the domestic market rebounded in the short term, with the stock index maintained for cautious long, the bond market in high - level short - term oscillation, and the commodity market showing different trends [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Important News and Events - The IMF significantly lowered the global economic growth forecast in its April report, with the US economic growth forecast cut by 0.9 percentage points in 2025 [3] - The US President called for the Fed to cut interest rates, mentioned cryptocurrency regulation, and said the US - China trade tension would ease and might "significantly reduce" tariffs on China [3][4] - The Fed's Beige Book showed that international trade policy uncertainty led to a slowdown in the US economic outlook [4] - US economic data such as PMI, initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, consumer confidence index, and inflation expectations were released, showing a mixed economic situation [4][5] - The European Central Bank's president mentioned the negative impact of tariffs on economic growth, and the ECB's survey adjusted the euro - zone economic growth and inflation forecasts [5][9] - China's 4 - month LPR remained unchanged, and the central bank increased liquidity support through MLF operations. The Politburo meeting proposed a series of economic stimulus policies [7][8][9] 3.2 This Week's Important Events and Economic Data Reminders - From April 28 to May 2, various industrial data, economic sentiment indices, consumer confidence indices, and housing price indices in different regions will be released [10] 3.3 Global Asset Price Movements - Stock markets: Different stock indices showed different daily, weekly, monthly, and year - to - date changes, with some rising and some falling [11] - Bond markets: Yields of 10 - year bonds in different countries changed, with some rising and some falling [11] - Commodity markets: Prices of various commodities such as steel, iron ore, copper, aluminum, oil, and precious metals had different price changes [11] - Exchange rates: The dollar index, exchange rates between major currencies also had corresponding fluctuations [11] 3.4 Domestic High - Frequency Macroeconomic Data - Upstream: Data on commodity price indices, energy prices, coal consumption and inventory, and iron ore prices and inventory were presented through various charts [13][16][23] - Midstream: Information on steel prices, production, and inventory, non - ferrous metal prices and inventory, building material prices and capacity utilization, and chemical product prices and inventory were shown [41][51][57] - Downstream: Data on real estate transaction area, automobile sales and tire production, and agricultural product prices were provided [70][72][79] 3.5 Domestic and Foreign Liquidity - Global liquidity: The US Treasury yield curve and its weekly changes were presented [81] - Domestic liquidity: Central bank's open - market operations, reverse - repurchase maturities, and domestic interest rates such as inter - bank lending rates and bond yields were shown [83][90][94] 3.6 Global Financial Calendar - From April 27 to May 2, important economic indicators such as industrial enterprise profits, economic sentiment indices, consumer confidence indices, housing price indices, GDP, inflation rates, employment data, and central bank policy announcements in different countries and regions will be released [102]