1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the trends of domestic commodities were divergent. Most industrial and agricultural products showed different trends. Driven by the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, international oil prices remained at a high level, leading to a strong and volatile performance in the energy and chemical sectors. Coal and agricultural products were also affected and showed a strong performance. However, the previously strong non - ferrous and precious metal sectors significantly adjusted due to concerns about stagflation [3]. - The Middle East situation has entered a white - hot stage of all - out confrontation. The US and Israel have jointly escalated military strikes and carried out high - level targeted eliminations, while Iran has countered strongly. The global energy and economic and trade order may continue to face continuous impacts [3]. - The Fed's March interest - rate meeting maintained the interest rate unchanged, with an overall hawkish tone. Powell's statement about the unknown impact of the oil - price shock highlighted the Fed's dilemma. The Fed can only strengthen its wait - and - see stance in the face of rising uncertainties and closely monitor the change in the oil - price center and the duration of high oil prices [3]. - The EU restarted the approval process of the US - EU trade agreement, releasing a signal of trans - Atlantic trade easing and calling on the US and Israel to end the war against Iran. The European Central Bank maintained the interest rate unchanged but stated that it was closely monitoring the inflation risk caused by the oil price due to the Middle East conflict and was ready to use all tools if necessary. The market expects it to raise interest rates more than twice this year [3]. - The Bank of Japan maintained the interest rate unchanged. The decision continued the tone of gradual policy normalization, and the proposal to raise interest rates by Takada reflected a significant divergence within the central bank on the progress of inflation reaching the target. Although the proposal was not passed, it signaled that there was still room for policy tightening and reserved the possibility of raising interest rates at the April monetary - policy meeting [3]. - In China, the Ministry of Finance released the 2025 fiscal - policy implementation report, and the State Council held a plenary meeting to anchor six key tasks. The Financial Regulatory Administration deployed the annual financial work, focusing on risk prevention, strong supervision, and high - quality development [3]. - The Middle East situation remains the key to the trend of commodities. On one hand, the situation in the Middle East has entered a white - hot stage, and the future development is still full of uncertainties. Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has basically stagnated, leading to a continuous high level of global energy prices. The impact of rising oil prices has spread to sectors such as agriculture. On the other hand, the short - term continuous rise in oil prices has also triggered market concerns about global stagflation, causing the US dollar index to rise and dragging down the performance of precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The development of the Middle East situation and the spill - over effects of soaring oil prices need to be closely monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Influence Factors and Main Logic** - **Review**: Domestic commodity trends were divergent this week. Industrial and agricultural products showed different trends. International oil prices were high due to the Middle East situation, driving the energy and chemical sectors, while coal and agricultural products were also affected. Non - ferrous and precious metal sectors adjusted due to stagflation concerns [3]. - **Overseas**: The Middle East situation is in a white - hot stage. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged with a hawkish tone. The EU restarted the trade - agreement approval process. The European Central Bank maintained the interest rate but monitored inflation risks. The Bank of Japan maintained the interest rate, with internal divergence on inflation and a signal of possible future tightening [3]. - **Domestic**: The Ministry of Finance released the 2025 fiscal - policy report, and the State Council and the Financial Regulatory Administration deployed key tasks for economic and financial development [3]. - **Commodity Views**: The Middle East situation is the key to commodity trends. Rising oil prices have led to high energy prices and concerns about stagflation, affecting different commodity sectors [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US**: The Fed's March interest - rate meeting maintained the interest rate unchanged. The meeting was hawkish, and Powell was uncertain about the impact of oil - price shocks. The Fed is in a dilemma and will closely monitor oil - price changes [3]. - **EU**: The EU restarted the US - EU trade - agreement approval process, released a signal of trade easing, and called on the US and Israel to end the war against Iran. The European Central Bank maintained the interest rate but was vigilant about inflation risks and was ready to take action [3]. - **Japan**: The Bank of Japan maintained the interest rate unchanged. There was internal divergence on inflation, and there was a signal of possible future policy tightening [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **Fiscal Policy**: The Ministry of Finance released the 2025 fiscal - policy implementation report, highlighting the significant effect of fiscal policies in expanding domestic demand and optimizing the tax structure. It also defined the five key points of the 2026 proactive fiscal policy [3]. - **Economic and Financial Work**: The State Council held a plenary meeting to anchor six key tasks, and the Financial Regulatory Administration deployed the annual financial work, focusing on risk prevention, supervision, and high - quality development [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Data**: Data on the start - up rates of the polyester industry chain and blast furnaces were presented, showing the operating conditions of related industries [27]. - **Agricultural Product Data**: Data on the average wholesale prices of vegetables, pork, and fruits, as well as the agricultural - product wholesale - price 200 index, were provided, reflecting the price trends of agricultural products [37][38].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking [1] - Report Date: March 17, 2026 [2] - Report Author: Guotou Futures Research Institute, Financial Engineering Group [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The proportion of long positions in commodities decreased slightly this week, mainly due to the decline in the strength of agricultural product factors. The relatively strong sectors in the cross - section are energy - chemical and black, while the relatively weak one is the agricultural product sector. Short - term price - volume factors are highly volatile due to macro factors [3]. Group 4: Commodity Factor Analysis Overall Commodity Situation - The short - term cross - section differentiation of agricultural products narrowed, and short - term factors declined marginally. The short - term momentum of the chemical industry as a whole declined, with asphalt showing relatively little change. The short - term momentum of the black sector increased marginally, and iron ore was relatively strong in the cross - section. The short - cycle momentum differentiation of the non - ferrous sector expanded, and aluminum and tin were strong in the term structure. The time - series momentum of gold fluctuated within a narrow range, and the position factor of silver rebounded [3]. Factor Performance | Sector | Momentum Time - series | Momentum Cross - section | Term Structure | Position | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Black | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | - 0.08 | | Non - ferrous | 0.05 | - 0.21 | 0.52 | 1.13 | | Energy - chemical | - 0.02 | 0.18 | 0.37 | 0.69 | | Agricultural | 0.13 | 0.35 | 0.41 | - 0.19 | | Stock Index | - 0.71 | 0.46 | - 0.63 | 1.06 | | Precious Metals | 0.12 | | | 0.88 | [6] Group 5: Strategy Net Value and Fundamental Factor Analysis Methanol - In terms of strategy net value, the inventory factor weakened by 0.22%, the spread factor decreased by 0.21%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.23%. This week, the comprehensive signal turned neutral. On the fundamental factors, the import volume of methanol released a short signal on the supply side; the demand side was neutral to bearish; the inventory side turned bullish; the spread side was neutral to bullish [5]. Float Glass - Strategy net value: The supply factor strengthened by 0.02%, the demand factor increased by 0.21%, the inventory factor increased by 0.18%, the profit factor increased by 0.04%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.17%. This week, the comprehensive signal was bearish. On the fundamental factors, the demand side turned neutral, the inventory side continued to be bearish, the profit side turned neutral, and the spread side was neutral to bearish [8]. Iron Ore - Strategy net value: The supply factor decreased by 0.79% last week, and the comprehensive factor weakened by 0.16%. This week, the comprehensive signal changed from neutral to bullish. The supply side signal changed from bearish to bullish, the demand side signal changed from bullish to bearish, the inventory side signal remained neutral, and the spread side signal turned bullish [8]. Aluminum - Strategy net value: Last week, the demand factor increased by 0.5%, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.59%, the spread factor decreased by 0.35%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.15%. This week, the comprehensive signal remained bearish. The supply side signal remained neutral, the inventory side bearish signal weakened, and the spread side signal remained bullish [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a diversified investment strategy rather than focusing on a single asset, as this can lead to emotional distress and poor decision-making [4][6][10]. Group 1: Investment Pain Points - The primary source of pain in investing comes from an excessive focus on a single asset, leading to anxiety and sleeplessness [4]. - Investors often react emotionally to market fluctuations, such as a 31% drop in silver or a 20%+ pullback in Hang Seng Tech, which can exacerbate their stress [5][6]. - Relying on a single asset for profit is extremely challenging due to the need for deep knowledge and the ability to manage emotions in a competitive market [7][8]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The company adopted a diversified asset allocation strategy starting in October 2024, using a "three-part method" to manage investments across various asset classes [10]. - Different asset classes serve distinct roles: gold as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks for valuation recovery, US stocks for tech innovation, and bonds for stability [12]. - Even with significant short-term declines in certain assets, the overall impact on the portfolio can be minimal due to strategic position sizing and diversification [13][14]. Group 3: Risk Management - The company maintains a low exposure to high-risk assets, which helps to stabilize the overall portfolio and reduce emotional stress during market volatility [14]. - The low correlation between different asset classes allows for some assets to rise while others fall, further mitigating risk [15]. - A disciplined rebalancing strategy, based on market conditions, can enhance returns and reduce the likelihood of emotional decision-making [16].

Core Viewpoint - The FOF market is expected to experience a strong recovery in 2025, with over 80 new funds launched and a total fundraising scale of 800 billion yuan, highlighting the increasing importance of multi-asset allocation for clients [1] Multi-Asset Allocation Core - Multi-asset allocation emphasizes diversification across various asset types, including global equity markets and flexible fixed income investments, as well as commodities and alternative investments [3] - The core of multi-asset allocation lies in understanding macroeconomic and industry cycles, along with risk control capabilities, which are dynamic rather than static [3][5] Multi-Strategy Approach - Multi-strategy provides another dimension to multi-asset allocation, with common strategies including CPPI, risk parity, and macro allocation strategies [4] - The essence of multi-asset allocation is to seek heterogeneous returns and risk sources to reduce volatility and risk [5] Sources of Returns in Multi-Asset Allocation - Returns from multi-asset allocation can be broken down into two core dimensions: the ability to grasp trends in individual asset categories and top-down macro allocation capabilities [8] - For equities, understanding industry trends and cycles is crucial, while fixed income requires a comprehensive assessment of macro variables like interest rate risk and economic growth [8] Effective Multi-Asset Allocation - Effective multi-asset allocation should focus on diversifying into heterogeneous assets like bonds and gold to lower portfolio volatility and risk [12] - It is essential to conduct sector rebalancing based on different industry and economic cycle characteristics, as well as asset price-performance ratios [12]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes discuss the impact of escalating conflicts in the Middle East, particularly the joint airstrikes by the US and Israel on Iran, which have led to significant disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, affecting global oil and LNG transportation [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Dynamics**: The market has shifted to an "event-driven" mode, where oil price movements are expected to directly influence market direction. A sustained increase in oil prices could lead to a rapid "Risk Off" scenario due to potential supply chain disruptions [1]. 2. **Conflict Escalation**: The expectation has shifted from a "lightning war" to a "protracted war," with military actions anticipated to continue for approximately four weeks, and Iran claiming it has over six months of high-intensity warfare capability [1][2]. 3. **Energy Sector Impact**: The shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has seen substantial stagnation, with insurers withdrawing coverage for the area, affecting about 20-25% of global oil transport and 20% of LNG transport [2]. 4. **Asset Price Outlook**: Three scenarios for asset price movements are outlined: - **Scenario One**: Quick resolution of the conflict leading to a peak and subsequent decline in oil prices, which would stabilize market liquidity and risk appetite [4][5]. - **Scenario Two**: Prolonged conflict with manageable intensity, resulting in fluctuating oil prices and a gradual increase in precious metals while risk assets remain volatile [5]. - **Scenario Three**: Long-term escalation of the conflict, leading to persistent high oil prices and a stagflation environment, with a risk of rapid declines in equity assets [6]. Additional Important Content - **Market Volatility**: The current market is experiencing tightening liquidity alongside constrained oil supply, leading to various asset classes, including equities and precious metals, facing downward pressure [3]. - **Equity Market Strategy**: The A-share market is in a medium volatility state, with expectations for a return to lower volatility levels before significant upward movement can occur. The correlation between A-shares and US stocks suggests that monitoring US market conditions could be beneficial for A-share strategies [7]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Short-term cyclical industries, particularly energy, are expected to enter a price increase cycle due to supply chain constraints. Conversely, sectors like aviation and social services may face pressure from rising costs and increased travel risks [9]. Conclusion - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and their implications for oil prices and market dynamics are critical for investors. The outlined scenarios provide a framework for understanding potential market movements and investment strategies in the current environment.

Policy Direction - Local economic growth targets are being adjusted downwards, with 15 provinces lowering their GDP targets by 0.5 percentage points, while 12 provinces maintain their targets from last year [2] - Major provinces like Guangdong, Henan, and Zhejiang have set their GDP growth targets at approximately 0.5 percentage points lower, while Jiangsu and Sichuan have not made adjustments [2] - Shanghai aims to cultivate 20 new integrated service consumption scenarios and plans to complete major project investments of 255 billion yuan [2] Domestic Macro - The new economic growth center is expected to rise in Q4 2025, with signs of expansion from AI to overseas markets, resource products, and service consumption [3] - The emerging technology industry is showing strong supply and demand characteristics, with an increase in internal price hikes across various segments [3] Foreign Macro - The Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates steady in January aligns with market expectations, with a more optimistic outlook on the economy, employment, and inflation, adding uncertainty to future rate cuts [4] Bond Market - The bond market is experiencing increased divergence, making it difficult to establish a clear trend [10] - The People's Bank of China has resumed 14-day reverse repos, injecting liquidity into the market, which has led to a significant decline in funding costs [7] - The overall bond market sentiment is improving, with credit bonds showing a general decline in yields, although credit spreads are widening [8][10] Equity Market - The market saw a decline last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.27% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.11%, while value stocks performed relatively well [11] - The food and beverage, banking, and building materials sectors continued to rise, while sectors like non-ferrous metals, communications, and electronics faced declines [18] Investment Strategy - Focus on domestic demand value and emerging technology sectors, as the domestic demand sector is expected to outperform post-Spring Festival [19] - Emphasis on sectors such as food, retail, tourism, and hotel services, as well as opportunities in oil, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals due to low valuations [20] - Emerging technology is seen as a key competitive area, with attention on internet, media, computing, robotics, and military sectors, as well as overseas manufacturing [20]

Group 1 - The core point of the announcement is that Angang Steel Co., Ltd. plans to continue its commodity futures hedging business in 2026, with a maximum margin of RMB 900 million, which accounts for 1.89% of the company's audited net assets from the previous year [2][3]. - The board of directors approved the hedging business with a unanimous vote of 9 in favor, indicating strong internal support for this strategy [2][20]. - The hedging activities are aimed at mitigating price volatility risks associated with raw materials and finished products, which include iron ore, coking coal, and various steel products [4][7]. Group 2 - The company will conduct futures trading through recognized exchanges such as the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Dalian Commodity Exchange, focusing on specific commodities like iron ore and steel [7]. - The maximum hedging volume for various products in 2026 is set at 2 million tons for steel, 4.5 million tons for iron ore, and 490,000 tons for coking coal and other related products [7]. - The funding for these futures transactions will come from the company's own funds, ensuring no reliance on raised capital or bank loans for these activities [9]. Group 3 - The company has established a management system for its hedging activities, including a dedicated supervisory department to ensure compliance and effectiveness of the hedging strategy [11]. - Risk management measures are in place to address potential market, liquidity, credit, operational, and legal risks associated with the hedging activities [12][13]. - The company has a clear policy against speculative trading, ensuring that all hedging positions are aligned with actual inventory and sales plans [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 2nd, varieties in the polyester industry chain significantly reduced positions and declined. The PX/PTA/PF/PR/MEG main contracts fell by 4.84%, 4.89%, 3.57%, 4.05%, and 4.63% respectively [1]. - The decline was due to a sharp drop in crude oil prices with the retracement of geopolitical premiums, and a significant drop in precious metals and non - ferrous metals which led to a rapid decline in market risk appetite and the outflow of incremental funds from the chemical sector [1]. - The cost side has recently fluctuated around the Iran situation. The Brent oil price dropped from around $70 per barrel at the end of last month to around $65 - $66 per barrel [1][2]. - In the short term, PX/PTA/PF/PR markets are greatly affected by external funds and are highly volatile. It is recommended to hold light positions and wait and see. In the long term, it is advisable to go long on hedging at low prices [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR); PTA spot processing fee; South Korean xylene isomerization profit; South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][22] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures include toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea); toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR; PTA export profit [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [27][30][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures involve PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][40][41] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament DTY factory inventory days, filament FDY factory inventory days, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing start - up rate, filament FDY profit, and filament POY profit [49][51][59] PF Detailed Data - Figures cover 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [71][75][85] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip, bottle - chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle - chip next - next - month spread (next - next month - base month) [88][90][95]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market exhibited a structural differentiation pattern last week, with cyclical and financial sectors leading gains while military and power equipment sectors declined [1][7] - Industries such as petroleum, coal, and non-ferrous metals continued to rise on a month-on-month basis, while military, power equipment, automotive, and computer sectors experienced significant declines [1][7] Group 2: Macroeconomic Analysis - In January, the manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a seasonal decline and below the average level for recent years [2][8] - The price index showed a notable rebound due to rising commodity prices, while the service sector remained stable and the construction industry required policy support [2][8] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent decision to pause interest rate cuts aligns with market expectations, but the appointment of Kevin Walsh as the new Fed Chair may introduce uncertainties into monetary policy [3][9] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The current phase of A-share earnings disclosures is expected to reveal a shift towards new economic growth, with a notable rise in the new economy's growth center, particularly in AI and overseas expansion [4][10] - The market is anticipated to stabilize, with a focus on leading companies in specific sectors and the A500 index, as regulatory measures have suppressed short-term speculative trading [4][10] - External disturbances may lead to corrections in previously popular sectors, creating potential opportunities for policy support in heavily pressured indices like the CSI 300 [4][10] Group 4: Investment Directions - Emerging technology remains a primary focus, with value stocks also showing potential; attention should be given to leading companies and the A500 index [5][11] - In the technology growth sector, global demand for AI computing power is driving rapid growth in semiconductor equipment demand, leading to price increases across the entire supply chain [5][11] - In the cyclical sector, low valuations and improving economic conditions suggest opportunities in food, retail, tourism services, and commodities like oil and non-ferrous metals [5][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities in China first rose and then fell. Industrial products slightly declined after the rise, while agricultural products slightly increased. At the beginning of the week, supported by multiple positive factors, precious metals and non - ferrous metals rose significantly, driving the collective rise of commodities. However, with the confirmation of the nominee for the Fed Chair (the final candidate is more hawkish than expected), the market adjusted significantly, with precious metals crashing and non - ferrous metals falling sharply [3]. - The Fed suspended rate cuts as scheduled on January 28, maintaining the federal funds rate in the 3.50% - 3.75% range. The market expects a more than 60% probability of two 25 - basis - point rate cuts by the end of 2026. The new Fed Chair nominee may affect future rate - cut expectations. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, whose "hawkish" background may support the US dollar and put pressure on stocks, bonds, and precious metals [4]. - Japan's Prime Minister warned against currency speculation, and the yen continued to rise. The market speculated about US - Japan joint intervention in the foreign exchange market, and the Japanese bond market also fluctuated [4]. - In January, China's manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs both declined, and economic activities slowed down compared with the previous month. However, production remained in expansion, and positive demand - side policies provided a foundation for the economy in the first quarter. In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 0.6% year - on - year, reversing the three - year decline. The 2026 tax reform aims to balance the central - local fiscal relationship and optimize the tax structure, which may relieve local debt risks [5]. - Commodity volatility is rising, and the strength of different sectors may change. The confirmation of the Fed Chair nominee may lead to a rebound in the US dollar index, suppressing precious metals and non - ferrous metals. China's policies to expand domestic demand may benefit some commodities, and geopolitical and weather factors may support energy prices [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Market Performance**: This week, domestic commodities first rose and then fell. Industrial products slightly declined, and agricultural products slightly increased. The market adjusted after the confirmation of the Fed Chair nominee [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: The Fed suspended rate cuts, and the market expects rate cuts by the end of 2026. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, and Japan's currency and bond markets fluctuated [4]. - **Domestic Factors**: In January, China's manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined. In 2025, industrial profits increased, and the 2026 tax reform may relieve local debt risks [5]. - **Commodity Views**: Commodity volatility is rising, and sector strength may change due to factors such as the Fed Chair nominee, China's policies, and geopolitical and weather factors [6] PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Fed Policy**: The Fed suspended rate cuts on January 28, maintaining the federal funds rate in the 3.50% - 3.75% range. The market expects a more than 60% probability of two 25 - basis - point rate cuts by the end of 2026 [4]. - **Nominee for Fed Chair**: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Warsh has a "hawkish" background, and his policies may support the US dollar and put pressure on stocks, bonds, and precious metals [4]. - **Japan's Situation**: Japan's Prime Minister warned against currency speculation, and the yen continued to rise. The market speculated about US - Japan joint intervention in the foreign exchange market, and the Japanese bond market also fluctuated [4] PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **PMI Data**: In January, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, also a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease. Economic activities slowed down, but production remained in expansion [5][26]. - **Industrial Profits**: In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size was 73982 billion yuan, a 0.6% year - on - year increase, reversing the three - year decline [5][29]. - **Tax Reform**: The 2026 tax reform aims to balance the central - local fiscal relationship and optimize the tax structure, which may relieve local debt risks [5] PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial开工率**: The report shows the开工率 data of the polyester industry chain and the blast furnace开工率 in China, but specific trends and analyses are not detailed in the summary [36]. - **Commodity Prices**: The report shows the price data of fruits, agricultural products, and pork, but specific trends and analyses are not detailed in the summary [49]