——海外零部件巨头系列十 民生汽车 崔琰（SAC NO:S0100523110002） 2025年9月29日 * 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 01 电装：日系Tier1标杆 借势、 精进、全球化 引言 我们坚定看好智能电动变革造就中国汽车产业做大做强的历史性机遇，传统燃油车时代欧美日整车厂占据主导地位，诞生博世、大陆、采埃孚、麦格纳、李尔、电装、爱 信精机等欧美日零部件巨头，而在智能电动车时代，中国车企有望实现弯道超车，带动产业链共同成长，叠加中国速度和性价比优势，相信必将也会诞生领先全球的自主 车企及零部件巨头。 他山之石可以攻玉，我们将重磅打造海外零部件系列深度，探究全球头部Tier 1的成长历史和转型方向，为中国汽车零部件的发展提供借鉴。本篇报告为《海外零部件巨头 系列十：电装：日系Tier1标杆 借势、精进、全球化》，通过复盘全球第二大汽车零部件巨头日本电装的发展历史，深度分析其成功原因，并梳理其在智能电动领域的布局， 发现和研究国产供应商能够学习的先进经验。 通过对具有代表性的海外零部件巨头的崛起过程进行多方位的梳理归纳，我们发现： 证券研究报告 1 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the company remains stable in the first half of 2025, with a revenue increase of approximately 5% year-on-year to RMB 2.97 billion, driven by growth in the security systems, power systems, and cloud server segments [1] Revenue Breakdown - The security systems segment saw a revenue increase of 27% - The power systems segment experienced a 15% revenue growth - The new energy vehicle segment continues to be the largest contributor to total revenue, accounting for 48.5% - The body systems, security systems, and power systems segments contributed 10.6%, 15.2%, and 6.2% to total revenue, respectively - The intelligent driving and connected business revenue remained similar to last year, making up 7.8% of total revenue - The cloud server segment revenue surged by 135% year-on-year, accounting for 8.6% of total revenue due to the growing demand for AI servers [1][1][1] Profitability - The profit attributable to shareholders for the year was RMB 49.7 million, down from RMB 97.7 million in the same period last year - The net profit margin for the first half of 2025 stands at 1.6% [1][1] Project Development - The company secured 112 new mass production projects in the first half of 2025, with 10 projects involving export models or overseas clients - The projects include key areas such as chassis and ADAS - The customer base has expanded beyond domestic major automakers to include major Japanese and European automakers and Tier 1 suppliers, providing strong support for future growth [1][1][1]

Group 1 - The stock price of Shentong Technology is reported at 14.30 yuan, down 0.03 yuan from the previous trading day, with a decline of 0.21% [1] - The intraday price fluctuation range was between 14.03 yuan and 14.43 yuan, with a trading volume of 0.74 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.23% [1] - Shentong Technology's main business is automotive parts manufacturing, covering power systems, chassis systems, and body accessories [1] Group 2 - As of the second quarter of 2025, insurance capital has newly entered as one of the top ten circulating shareholders of Shentong Technology [1] - According to the disclosed semi-annual report data, insurance capital adjusted its allocation to certain mechanical equipment and automotive parts industry targets during the quarter [1] Group 3 - The net inflow of main funds into Shentong Technology on that day was 6.7861 million yuan, with a cumulative net inflow of 305,800 yuan over the past five trading days [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock opened down 7.56% on July 7, with a closing price of $291.51 per share and a market capitalization of $938.94 billion, reflecting a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025 [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of March 31, 2025, Tesla reported total revenue of $19.335 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 9.23% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was $409 million, representing a substantial year-over-year decline of 70.58% [1]. Analyst Ratings and Future Reports - On July 3, HSBC reaffirmed a "Reduce" rating for Tesla, raising the target price to $120 [2]. - Tesla is scheduled to disclose its fiscal year 2025 mid-term report on July 23, 2023, after market hours [2]. Company Overview - Tesla, founded on July 1, 2003, by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning, is an American electric vehicle and energy company [2]. - The company designs, develops, manufactures, sells, and leases high-performance all-electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, providing related services [2]. - Tesla is recognized as the world's first vertically integrated sustainable energy company, offering end-to-end clean energy products, including generation, storage, and consumption [2]. Product Line and Technological Advancements - Tesla is planning to launch electric vehicles to cater to a broad consumer and commercial vehicle market, including models such as Model 3, Model Y, Model S, Model X, Cybertruck, Tesla Semi, and a new Tesla Roadster [2]. - The electric vehicles feature advanced power systems, autonomous driving capabilities, and Full Self-Driving (FSD) hardware, providing advantages in range, charging flexibility, acceleration, handling, safety, and user-friendly infotainment features [2].

Group 1 - Tesla's stock price increased by 5.03% to $324.1 per share, with a total market capitalization of $1,043.91 billion as of June 11 [1] - For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, Tesla reported total revenue of $19.335 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 9.23%, and a net profit of $409 million, down 70.58% year-over-year [1] - Robert W. Baird reaffirmed Tesla's rating as Neutral and raised the target price to $320 on June 9 [1] Group 2 - Tesla is planning to launch electric vehicles to cater to a wide consumer and commercial vehicle market, including models such as Model 3, Model Y, Model S, Model X, Cybertruck, Tesla Semi, and a new Tesla Roadster [2] - The electric vehicles feature advanced technology in power systems, autonomous driving, and Full Self-Driving (FSD) hardware, offering advantages in range, charging flexibility, acceleration, handling, safety, and user-friendly infotainment features [2]

Core Viewpoint - The successful operation of the "Huaneng Ruichi" unmanned electric mining truck cluster in Inner Mongolia marks a significant advancement in green mining technology, supported by Ruipu Lanjun's cutting-edge battery technology [1][6]. Group 1: Project Overview - The "Huaneng Ruichi" project, led by China Huaneng Group and developed in collaboration with Xuzhou Construction Machinery Group, features a fleet of 100 unmanned electric mining trucks, setting records for maximum tonnage (90 tons), fastest operating speed, and lowest operating temperature (-40℃) [1][6]. - Ruipu Lanjun serves as the exclusive supplier of the power system for the "Huaneng Ruichi," providing essential support for achieving zero carbon emissions in mining transportation [1][2]. Group 2: Battery System Specifications - The power system designed by Ruipu Lanjun utilizes a standard 230C box design with an energy density of 150Wh/kg and a cycle life exceeding 6000 times [4]. - The battery system is characterized by three main features: low-temperature adaptability, reliability in complex working conditions, and intelligent safety [4][6]. Group 3: Low-Temperature Adaptability - The battery system is engineered to perform optimally in extreme cold conditions, such as the -40℃ climate of the Inner Mongolia Yimin mining area, utilizing a dual-unit and liquid cooling temperature control architecture [6]. Group 4: Reliability in Complex Conditions - The battery pack is housed in a high-strength aluminum casing with an IP68 rating for dust and water resistance, designed to withstand the harsh conditions of mining environments [6]. Group 5: Intelligent Safety Features - The system incorporates a Bbox data collection system connected to the Internet of Things (IoT), enabling real-time monitoring of battery lifecycle data, fault warnings, and analysis to ensure safe operation of the mining trucks [6]. Group 6: Future Prospects - The successful deployment of the "Huaneng Ruichi" project sets a new paradigm for green transformation in global mining enterprises, with Ruipu Lanjun committed to furthering electric mining equipment development and supporting China's dual carbon goals [6].

Core Insights - The "2025 Global Top 50 Construction Machinery Parts Suppliers" summit highlighted the shift in China's supply chain from price advantage to technology advantage, emphasizing the need for higher standards in component supply chains due to advancements in new energy and intelligent technologies [1][2] - Chinese companies have made significant strides in the global market, occupying 27 positions in the top suppliers list, particularly excelling in core areas such as power systems and hydraulic systems, indicating their competitiveness against international giants [2] - The summit introduced new categories in the supplier rankings, including battery systems and intelligent mining technologies, reflecting the industry's focus on innovation and modernization [1][2] Industry Trends - The construction machinery industry is experiencing a transformation, with a focus on high-end, large-scale manufacturing and the integration of global resources to strengthen technological barriers [2] - The concentration of the industry is increasing as leading companies with independent innovation capabilities expand their market share, while smaller manufacturers face the risk of elimination [2] - The introduction of 24 subcategories in the supplier rankings showcases the industry's diversification and the growing importance of emerging technologies [1] Key Companies - Notable Chinese companies such as CATL, BYD, and Inovance Technology have emerged as leaders in the new energy and intelligent technology sectors, positioning themselves in the top tier of global competition [1] - The rankings included a variety of suppliers across different categories, such as hydraulic systems, electric drive motors, and battery management systems, indicating a broad spectrum of expertise within the industry [4][5][6][7][8][10]

Core Viewpoint - Lixun Precision's strong performance in 2024 is driven by its deep engagement in precision manufacturing and diversified business development, with significant growth in automotive and communication sectors [1][2][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Lixun Precision achieved a revenue of 268.795 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.91% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.366 billion yuan, an increase of 22.03% year-on-year [1]. - For the first half of 2025, the company expects a net profit of 6.475 billion to 6.745 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 20% to 25% year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Automotive Sector Growth - The automotive-related business generated revenue of 13.758 billion yuan in 2024, marking a growth of 48.69% [2]. - Automotive wiring harnesses accounted for 60% of the automotive business, contributing 2.7 billion yuan to the new sales of 4.5 billion yuan in 2024 [2]. - The acquisition of Leoni Group, a leading automotive wiring harness manufacturer, is expected to accelerate Lixun's overseas expansion [2]. Group 3: Communication Sector Developments - The communication business reported revenue of 18.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.29% [4]. - Lixun has developed innovative core components for AI data centers, addressing the growing demand for data transmission and management [4]. - The company has launched several advanced products, including 224G and 800G optical modules, which are currently in mass production [4]. Group 4: Product Line Expansion - Lixun's automotive product line includes wiring harnesses, connectors, smart cockpits, and power systems, successfully covering major domestic and international automakers [3]. - The company aims to enhance its capabilities in smart vehicle integration and has seen a sales increase of 1.5 billion yuan in smart control products in 2024 [3]. - In thermal management, Lixun expects revenue and profit growth of over 100% in 2025, with plans to penetrate North American cloud service providers [5].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts project that Cummins (CMI) will report quarterly earnings of $4.82 per share, reflecting a 5.5% decline year over year, with revenues expected to reach $8.07 billion, down 4% from the same quarter last year [1]. Earnings Estimates - Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 7.1%, indicating a collective reassessment by covering analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical research shows a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Key Metrics Forecast - Analysts estimate 'Net Sales- Distribution' at $2.66 billion, representing a 5.1% increase year over year [5]. - 'Net Sales- Accelera' is projected to reach $97.47 million, indicating a 4.8% increase from the prior year [5]. - 'Net Sales- Engine- Off-highway' is expected to be $432.45 million, reflecting a 0.8% decline year over year [5]. Additional Sales Estimates - The consensus for 'Net Sales- Engine- Medium-duty truck and bus' is $956.99 million, suggesting a 3.8% decrease year over year [6]. - 'Net Sales- Engine- Light-duty automotive' is forecasted at $425.95 million, indicating a 2.8% decline [6]. - 'Net Sales- Engine- Heavy-duty truck' is expected to be $1.01 billion, reflecting a 4.3% decrease [6]. Power System and Components Sales - Analysts project 'Net Sales- Power System' at $1.50 billion, indicating an 8% increase year over year [7]. - 'Net Sales- Components' is expected to reach $2.85 billion, reflecting a 14.3% decline [7]. - The combined estimate for 'Net Sales- Engine' is $2.74 billion, indicating a 6.3% decrease from the prior year [7]. Automated Transmissions and Power Generation - 'Net Sales- Components- Automated transmissions' is projected at $146.75 million, reflecting an 11.1% decline [8]. - 'Net Sales- Power System- Industrial' is expected to be $428.73 million, indicating a 2.1% increase year over year [8]. - 'Net Sales- Power System- Power generation' is forecasted to reach $960.32 million, reflecting a 12.6% increase year over year [9]. Stock Performance - Cummins shares have returned -7% over the past month, compared to a -0.2% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [9].

Core Insights - The automotive industry is undergoing a transformation with a focus on smart electric vehicles, as evidenced by the significant increase in exhibition space dedicated to automotive technology and supply chains at the Shanghai Auto Show, which expanded from 30,000 square meters to approximately 100,000 square meters this year [1] - The competition among car manufacturers is shifting towards the supply chain, with technology suppliers emerging as key players in the development of innovative products for the Chinese electric vehicle market [1][3] - Local suppliers in China, such as Huawei and Baosteel, are showcasing their latest automotive technologies, indicating a deepening integration of technology and automotive sectors [1] Industry Trends - The 2025 Shanghai Auto Show highlighted the importance of electrification and intelligence, with suppliers showcasing advanced technologies in areas such as smart driving, digital cockpits, and AI chips [3] - Companies like Fureitek are introducing innovative products in the field of assisted driving, emphasizing low coupling and high reliability in their camera modules and radar products [3][6] - Bosch reported that 65% of its new business in China over the next five years will be related to smart and electrified solutions, reflecting a rapid market shift towards these technologies [6] Safety and Regulation - The rise of smart driving technologies has prompted a reevaluation of safety standards in the industry, with recent accidents leading to increased scrutiny and the development of regulatory frameworks [11] - The penetration rate of Level 2 autonomous driving technologies is already high, and consumer demand remains strong, despite regulatory tightening [11] - Companies are focusing on product safety and stability, with many suppliers emphasizing these aspects at the Shanghai Auto Show [11] Cost Management and Innovation - The automotive industry is facing significant cost pressures, leading to a focus on cost control without compromising product quality, with technology innovation being a key strategy for achieving this balance [15][16] - Companies are integrating various control systems to reduce costs and enhance product competitiveness, while also promoting the use of domestic chips to stabilize supply chains [16][20] - The trend of "reverse technology output" from China is gaining momentum, with local manufacturers increasingly defining next-generation technologies and supporting global clients [17][20] Digital Transformation - The shift towards digitalization in manufacturing processes is crucial for shortening development cycles for automotive manufacturers, with companies like Unity providing digital twin solutions to enhance operational efficiency [21] - The competitive landscape for automotive supply chains is evolving, with a focus on innovation speed, localization depth, and cost control capabilities becoming paramount [22] - The transition from China as a "world factory" to an "innovation laboratory" is redefining the global automotive industry's value chain [22]