2025 年 11 月 19 日 星期三 ➢ 每日大市点评 1 2025 年 11 月 19 日 星期三 11 月 17 日，美国减息预期降温，拖累科技股，周二亚太区主要股市普遍下跌。港股上午走势反复，但下午跌幅扩大。 恒生指数最终跌穿 26,000 点心里关口，收报 25,930 点，下跌 454 点（1.7%），跌穿 50 天平均线；恒生科技指数下跌 111 点（1.9%），收报 5,645 点；全天大市成交额扩大至 2,421 亿元。港股通净流入进一步减少至 74.7 亿元。盘面上， 小鹏汽车（9868 HK）虽然三季度亏损持续受窄，但四季度收入指引低于市场预期，并且被券商下调目标价，小鹏汽车全 天下挫 10.5%。科技股全面受压，阿里巴巴（9988 HK）受益于千问 APP 上线受到追捧，上午股价逆市造好，但下午跟随 大盘转跌，收盘跌 0.2%；腾讯（700 HK）跌 2.0%；快手（1024 HK）跌 3.2%；铝制品企业中国宏桥（1378 HK）以折让 9.6%配售最多 4 亿股，全天股价下跌 5.9%；小米集团（1810 HK）业绩公布前全天下滑 2.8%。关注恒生指数在本周能否 修复至 26, ...

港股晨报 港股回顾 点，跌幅随即扩大至 247 点，低见 23730 点，其后跌幅 一度收窄至仅 20 点，午后大盘走势偏软，尾盘沽压再 度扩大。截至收盘，恒指收报 23831 点，下跌 145 点或 0.61%；国指收报 9656 点，下跌 47 点或 0.49%，大市 成交进一步减至 827.99 亿。港股通录得净流入资金 4.84 亿，其中港股通(沪)净流入 2.83 亿，港股通(深)净 流入 2.01 亿。板块方面，本地地产、软件、5G 概念板 块跌幅靠前；黄金股逆市走强。 全球市场风险偏好承压背景下，周二港股股指再 度单边下行，恒生指数收跌 1.72%，报 25930.03 点；恒生科技指数下挫 1.93%；恒生中国企业指 数下挫 1.65%，报 9174.84 点。大市成交 2421.12 亿港元，南向资金净买入 74.66 亿港元。新能源 车题材领跌，小鹏汽车跌逾 10%；钢铁、有色金 属、化工、煤炭行业跌幅居前，中国宏桥跌近 6%。 美股市场 1. 周二美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌 1.07%，标 普 500 指数跌 0.83%，纳指跌 1.21%。其中道指、 标普 500 指数均录得连续第四 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "strongly recommended" rating for Alibaba, Pinduoduo, JD.com, and Vipshop, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the e-commerce sector [17][20][21]. Core Insights - The overall e-commerce sales during the 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival reached 1,695 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 14.2% [5][24]. - JD.com achieved record sales during the 11.11 event, with a 40% increase in the number of orders and nearly 60% growth in order volume [2][26]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the local life services sector, particularly Meituan, which maintains long-term competitive advantages despite competitive pressures [17]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Sector - The report emphasizes the low valuations of leading e-commerce companies, recommending Alibaba, Pinduoduo, JD.com, and Vipshop as key investment opportunities [17][20]. - Alibaba's e-commerce monetization rate is steadily improving, with significant growth potential in its cloud and AI businesses [17]. - Pinduoduo is expected to see sustainable growth driven by its support plan for merchants and improving global market prospects [20]. Local Life Services - Meituan's long-term investment value remains intact despite short-term competitive disruptions, with a focus on high-value users and operational efficiency [17]. Travel and Tourism - The travel sector is projected to maintain high growth, with recommendations for companies in the OTA and scenic spots, as well as transportation and hotel sectors driven by business travel demand [17]. - The report notes that the restaurant and tourism index rose by 4.81%, outperforming major indices [5][6]. Retail Sector - The report suggests focusing on quality retail trends, with companies like Yonghui adapting to consumer trust and product quality [17]. - The retail sector is experiencing significant growth, with notable increases in various product categories during the Double Eleven sales [5][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the computer industry, indicating an expected return that exceeds the CSI 300 Index by 10% or more over the next six months [8]. Core Insights - The launch of the first commercial world model product, Marble, by World Labs, allows users to create editable and downloadable 3D virtual scenes from various inputs, significantly reducing scene distortion and inconsistency [1][12]. - The concept of a "world model" is introduced as a new AI system that enables machines to understand spatial relationships and interactions, moving beyond mere language descriptions [2][13]. - Major breakthroughs in world model technology have been achieved by global tech giants, including Tencent's mixed 3D world model and Google DeepMind's Genie 3, which enhances the generation of interactive virtual environments [3][14]. - Spatial intelligence is expected to empower creative tools in the short term and serve as a foundational capability for machines to understand and interact with the three-dimensional world in the medium term [4][15]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The domestic world model and physical AI industry chain is forming, with significant advancements such as the ReKep system developed by Li Feifei's team, which utilizes RGB-D cameras for 3D visual data support [5][16]. - Recommended stocks include: - Oboe Technology (leader in 3D visual perception) - Zhiwei Intelligent (robotic brain controller) - Suochen Technology (physical AI product developer) - Alter (investing in the robotics sector) [5][16]. Market Performance Review - The computer sector underperformed relative to the CSI 300 Index, with a decline of 3.72% this week, while the overall market indices showed mixed results [17][18]. - The computer industry index ranked 28th among 30 industry indices, indicating weaker performance compared to other sectors [20]. Industry News - The report highlights significant developments in quantum applications in Anhui province, aiming for 1,000 application scenarios by 2027, and the departure of Meta's chief AI scientist, who plans to establish a world model company [24][25].

晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 17 日 核心结论 分析师 【基金】行业主题基金专题研究（六）-主动篇：先进制造主题基金研究框 架及产品优选 本文构建主动型先进制造主题基金池。根据主动权益基金对制造行业的配 置、基金与先进制造概念的相关系数等标签划分，细分为均衡型/专注单一 赛道型制造基金、机器人/军工/汽车/新能源/智能驾驶/电池等概念主题基金。 综合定量定性指标、当下投资关注度，建议关注：1）机器人主题：永赢先 进制造智选、鹏华碳中和、平安先进制造、中航趋势领航等；2）军工主题： 长信国防军工、华夏军工安全、永赢高端装备智选等。 【证券Ⅱ】证券行业 2026 年度策略：步步向上，欣欣向荣 我们认为经济定调积极下资本市场上升趋势仍在，券商板块仍是年内不可多 得的相对低估+业绩同比高增的细分资产。在自营相对难以预测、叠加增量 资金持续入市带动 ADT 中枢高企下，我们认为当前经纪主线是不错的选择， 推荐国泰海通、华泰证券、东方证券、国信证券、广发证券，建议关注方正 证券；此外，推荐受益于权益市场活跃的九方智投控股、有望通过换股吸收 大智慧实现增长的湘财股份、持续受益于港股 IPO 回暖的中金公 ...

Investment Rating - The overall industry rating is positive, expecting returns to exceed the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [33] Core Insights - The computer industry index fell by 3.03% during the week of November 10-16, 2025, ranking 29th among 31 first-level industries, but has risen 18.24% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.62 percentage points [3][27] - OpenAI launched the GPT-5.1 series flagship model, focusing on enhancing user experience and conversation engagement, with two models: GPT-5.1 Instant for daily interactions and GPT-5.1 Thinking for advanced reasoning [4][11] - Alibaba and Tencent are actively developing AI intelligent agents, with Alibaba's "Qianwen" project aiming to compete directly with ChatGPT, and Tencent planning to introduce an AI agent within WeChat to assist users [15][17] - Kimi K2 Thinking, a new generation of open-source thinking agent, has achieved significant advancements in reasoning and tool usage capabilities, outperforming other models in various benchmarks [20][23] Summary by Sections Industry Key Events Review - OpenAI released GPT-5.1, optimizing user experience with enhanced models for different interaction types [11] - Alibaba initiated the "Qianwen" project to create a personal AI assistant, leveraging its leading position in the open-source model market [15] - Tencent is exploring AI capabilities within WeChat, aiming to enhance user task completion through AI [17] Market Review - The computer industry index decreased by 3.03% for the week, but has increased by 18.24% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the CSI 300 index [27] - The top five gainers in the computer industry for the week included Haixia Innovation (+33.1%) and Yingfang Software (+19.3%), while the top five losers included Fangzhi Technology (-19.91%) and Chunzong Technology (-17.43%) [29][31] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Kingsoft Office, Feng Assistant, and Yonyou Network, as well as those involved in AI applications and computing power demands, such as Haiguang Information and Lenovo Group [5][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" with a target price set for the next six months [4]. Core Insights - Alibaba has launched the "Qianwen" project, aiming to compete with ChatGPT by developing a personal AI assistant app, leveraging its Qwen model, which has a pre-training data volume of 36 trillion tokens and over one trillion parameters [1]. - SanDisk has raised NAND flash memory prices by 50%, indicating a tightening storage chip market driven by strong demand from AI data centers and limited global wafer production capacity [2]. - Baidu has unveiled its AI chip roadmap, introducing the Kunlun M100 and M300 chips, with plans to release new products annually over the next five years [3]. Summary by Sections Industry News Overview - The report highlights significant developments in the semiconductor and AI sectors, including the completion of the first phase of 6G technology trials in China and advancements in silicon carbide (SiC) technology [16][17]. Market Performance Review - The electronic sector experienced a decline of 4.77% in the week of November 10-14, 2025, ranking 30 out of 31 in overall industry performance [31][33]. - The report notes that the semiconductor sub-sector has a high price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 95.27, indicating strong market expectations [40]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the domestic computing power sector such as Feirongda and Xingsen Technology, as well as storage industry players like Zhaoyi Innovation and Bawei Storage [10].