Market Overview - In October, the investment agreements between Japan, South Korea, and the United States were finalized, leading to significant gains in the Japanese and South Korean stock markets, which rose by 19.1% and 12.2% respectively[3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a notable decline of 8.53% during the same period[3] Global Asset Flows - Global money market funds saw an inflow of approximately $1,290 billion in October, a decrease from $1,550 billion in September[19] - The U.S. equity market attracted $595.1 billion, while China and emerging markets received inflows of $180.6 billion and $241.6 billion respectively[19] China Market Dynamics - In October, China's equity market attracted $180.62 billion, accounting for 74.76% of the total inflow into emerging markets[19] - The inflow into China's fixed income market was $26.17 billion, representing 32.09% of the total emerging market inflow[19] Country Allocation Trends - Global funds' allocation to the Chinese stock market has rebounded to the historical 40th percentile, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from September[19] - The allocation to the U.S. stock market was 61.6%, reflecting a marginal increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[19] Risk Considerations - Short-term asset price fluctuations may not accurately represent long-term trends, and there are risks associated with potential economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of "bottom warehouse thinking" in a volatile market, suggesting that investors should allocate a portion of their portfolio to stable, long-term "bottom warehouse" funds to manage risks and enhance returns [2][4]. Group 1: Definition and Characteristics of Bottom Warehouse Funds - Bottom warehouse funds are defined as the portion of fund assets that investors hold long-term, serving as the foundation of their investment portfolio, even during significant market downturns [2][5]. - These funds focus on steady appreciation rather than frequent trading, playing a crucial role in risk smoothing and balanced asset allocation [3][5]. - Key characteristics of suitable bottom warehouse funds include balanced investment across various sectors, long-term value potential, and the ability to provide a positive investment experience [5][6][7]. Group 2: Reasons for Allocating to Bottom Warehouse Funds - The article cites Benjamin Graham's perspective that bull markets can lead to significant losses for ordinary investors, highlighting the need for a balanced approach during market fluctuations [4]. - Current market conditions, with the Shanghai Composite Index around 3900 points, indicate increased volatility and a slowdown in capital inflows, making bottom warehouse funds essential for risk management [4][5]. - A well-structured fund portfolio can help investors participate in long-term growth opportunities while mitigating short-term volatility [4]. Group 3: Selection Criteria for Bottom Warehouse Funds - The selection of bottom warehouse funds should be based on the overall asset allocation framework and the investor's risk tolerance and investment goals [8]. - Types of funds that are often considered for bottom warehouse allocation include fixed income funds, broad-based index funds, and dividend strategy funds [9][10][13]. - Broad-based index funds aim to capture market average returns and are recommended for investors seeking stability and alignment with overall market performance [10][12]. Group 4: Specific Fund Types for Bottom Warehouse Allocation - Dividend strategy funds provide a dual benefit of generating income through dividends and capital appreciation, appealing to investors seeking both cash flow and long-term growth [13][14]. - Fixed income funds, while less prominent in a booming equity market, play a vital role in reducing portfolio volatility and providing steady income [15][16]. - The article emphasizes that a balanced portfolio does not require precise market predictions but should focus on dynamic adjustments based on market conditions [16][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Campisi model, a classic attribution framework in the fixed - income field, decomposes the total return of a pure - bond fund into four effects: income, treasury, spread, and selection effects, helping to evaluate a fund manager's abilities such as duration management and credit mining [6]. - The net - based Campisi model (RBA) constructs seven risk factors through factor regression, with advantages in high - frequency tracking and dynamic adaptability, capable of capturing strategy adjustments and market environment changes [2][80]. - The net - based Campisi model has strong explanatory power for fixed - income funds. From early 2025 to August 22, 2025, the adjusted R - squared generally exceeded 0.6, indicating that the model can explain most of the income sources [2][80]. - The model can identify strategy characteristics. For example, in 2025, interest - rate bond funds generally extended their durations, and credit bond funds shifted to a diversified strategy due to narrowing spreads. "Fixed - income +" funds balanced risks and returns through diversified rating allocations and maintained high exposure to option - containing assets [2][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Performance Attribution of Fixed - Income Funds - The core value of fixed - income fund performance attribution lies in evaluating management capabilities, guiding investment decisions, and optimizing risk management. Its practical significance benefits investors, managers, and regulatory agencies [5]. 3.2 Net - based Campisi Model 3.2.1 Campisi Model Principle - The Campisi model decomposes the total return of a pure - bond fund into four effects: income, treasury, spread, and selection effects, helping to assess a fund manager's abilities in various aspects [6]. - The income effect is the coupon income during bond holding, independent of market interest rate fluctuations. The treasury effect measures the impact of changes in risk - free interest rates on bond prices, and the spread effect reflects the impact of changes in credit spreads on bond prices. The selection effect reflects the fund manager's active management ability [7][8][13]. - The Campisi model can be divided into the portfolio - based (PBA) and net - based (RBA) models. PBA has high decomposition accuracy but low timeliness, while RBA has high - frequency tracking and dynamic adaptability [14]. 3.2.2 Model Construction and Factor Selection - The net - based Campisi model decomposes bond returns into seven factors: interest - rate level, term structure, convexity, credit spread, rating spread, convertible bond, and equity factors [18]. - Each factor has its own construction method and reflects different aspects of a fund's risk exposure and strategy preference. For example, the interest - rate level factor reflects the impact of the parallel shift of the interest - rate curve on bond portfolio returns, and the convertible bond factor captures the income contribution of convertible bond assets [20][34]. 3.2.3 Factor Performance and Processing - Since January 2020, the convertible bond and equity factors have fluctuated greatly, while non - option - containing factors have shown an upward trend in the long - term. The interest - rate level, term structure, credit spread, and rating spread factors have stable long - term trends, and the convexity factor has the smallest fluctuation [39]. - There are certain correlations among the factors. For example, the convertible bond factor and the equity factor have a strong positive correlation, while the interest - rate level factor has a negative correlation with the convertible bond and equity factors [40]. 3.3 Bond Fund Performance Evaluation Empirical Analysis 3.3.1 Pure - Bond Fund Attribution Analysis - From early 2025 to August 22, 2025, the adjusted R - squared of interest - rate bond funds and credit bond funds was generally high, indicating that the model can explain most of the fund income [45]. - Compared with 2024, in 2025, interest - rate bond funds generally extended their durations and increased exposure to convexity factors. Credit bond funds also extended their durations but to a lesser extent, and their investment strategies became more diversified [45][50][52]. - Short - term bond funds have a higher average exposure to the term structure factor, reflecting their preference for short - term bonds. Medium - and long - term bond funds have more diversified investment directions in credit bonds [55]. 3.3.2 Characteristics of Top - Ranked Pure - Bond Funds in Alpha in 2025 - Top - ranked medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds in Alpha generally have higher exposure to the interest - rate level factor and negative exposure to the term structure factor. Alpha, mainly from the selection effect, has a relatively small impact on their performance [58]. - Top - ranked medium - and long - term credit bond funds in Alpha have negative exposure to the rating spread factor, indicating a tendency to reduce credit risk exposure. Alpha also has a relatively small impact on their performance [61]. 3.3.3 "Fixed - Income +" Fund Attribution Analysis - From early 2025 to August 22, 2025, the adjusted R - squared of "fixed - income +" funds was generally high, and most of them had positive Alpha, indicating strong overall active management ability [63]. - In a low - interest - rate environment, "fixed - income +" funds balance risks and returns through diversified rating allocations and maintain high exposure to option - containing assets [67]. 3.3.4 Characteristics of "Fixed - Income +" Funds with Strong Active Management Ability in 2025 - Top - ranked "fixed - income +" funds in Alpha rely more on the fund manager's active management ability, and Alpha has a greater impact on their performance [76]. - Top - ranked "fixed - income +" funds in the convertible bond factor also mostly have strong active management ability [78]. 3.4 Investment Analysis Opinions - The net - based Campisi model provides a systematic tool for fixed - income funds, helping investors screen and allocate funds with stable strategies and strong active management abilities [80][81].

近日，中国证监会正式批复，核准上海证券有限责任公司成为新疆前海联合基金管理有限公司主要股东，并明确百联集团有限公司作为实际控制人。此举标志着 上海证券对前海联合基金的整体收购取得关键进展，股权变更进入实质性落地阶段。 公开信息显示，前海联合基金成立于2015年8月，是国内第99家基金管理公司。2020年末，其管理规模曾达到496.27亿元的峰值，但此后规模持续萎缩。截至2025年 9月28日，规模仅剩89.93亿元，旗下49只基金以固收类产品为主。自2021年9月以来，该公司再无新基金成立，2022年发行的两只产品均告募集失败。 根据批复文件，证监会认可上海证券依法受让前海联合基金2亿元人民币出资（占注册资本比例100%）。监管部门同时要求前海联合基金及各股东及时完成工商变 更登记等相关事宜，完善公司治理结构，切实维护公司及基金份额持有人的合法权益。 此次收购交易源于今年2月7日的一场司法拍卖。经过五次流拍与竞拍，上海证券最终以3766.22万元的价格竞得前海联合基金30%股权，较评估价6725.4万元折价约 44%，此前该股权拍卖过程因案外人异议、流拍及买家未支付等原因多次受阻。 近年来，已有嘉合基金、东海 ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple public fund institutions have initiated a new round of portfolio adjustments to respond to the changing market environment, indicating a proactive approach to asset allocation in light of market volatility [1] Group 1: Portfolio Adjustments - Some portfolios have reduced their allocation to mixed funds while increasing the proportion of fixed-income funds [1] - Certain portfolios are seeking quality assets that benefit from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] - Other portfolios have increased their holdings in balanced funds that have shown relatively stable net value performance over the medium to long term [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Despite short-term fluctuations, investment advisory institutions believe that the overall upward trend of the equity market remains intact [1] - There is an emphasis on rationally viewing profit-taking sell-offs and avoiding the pitfalls of chasing highs and selling lows [1] - A balanced asset allocation with a medium to long-term perspective is recommended [1]

Core Insights - Multiple public fund institutions have initiated a new round of portfolio adjustments in response to the changing market environment [1] - Some portfolios have reduced their allocation to mixed funds while increasing their allocation to fixed-income funds [1] - Other portfolios are seeking quality assets that benefit from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] - Certain portfolios have increased their positions in balanced funds that have shown relatively stable net value performance over the medium to long term [1] - Investment advisory institutions indicate that short-term fluctuations do not alter the overall upward trend of the equity market, advocating for a rational view on profit-taking and a balanced asset allocation from a medium to long-term perspective [1]

Group 1: Service Consumption Policies - The Ministry of Commerce, along with eight other departments, released a document outlining 19 specific measures to promote service consumption growth, focusing on enhancing high-quality service supply capabilities [1] - Key initiatives include launching "Service Consumption Season" activities, supporting cross-industry collaborations, expanding pilot programs in telecommunications and healthcare, and optimizing student holiday arrangements [1] - The document emphasizes the establishment of pilot cities for new consumption formats, models, and scenarios to stimulate market vitality, reflecting the government's commitment to the service consumption market [1] Group 2: Mergers and Acquisitions - Local state-owned capital merger funds are becoming significant market players, with regions like Shanghai, Shenzhen, Fujian, and Zhejiang establishing or planning such funds, aligning with national strategic directions [2] - The introduction of policies like the "Six Merger Guidelines" indicates an improved policy environment for mergers and acquisitions, assigning these funds a crucial role in driving industrial upgrades and regional transformations [2] Group 3: Financial Market Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is seeking public opinion on new regulations for the management of public fund sales expenses, which may impact the performance of short-term bond funds [2] - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking its first rate cut in nine months, amid concerns over employment and economic growth [2] Group 4: SoftBank's Strategic Adjustments - SoftBank Group announced a nearly 20% reduction in its Vision Fund team, focusing remaining resources on founder Masayoshi Son's AI projects, particularly the $500 billion Stargate initiative [3] - This restructuring reflects SoftBank's strategy to adapt to challenges while maintaining a focus on high-potential investment areas [3] Group 5: Market Performance Overview - Major global stock markets saw an upward trend, with notable performances from China's Shenzhen Component Index and the Hang Seng Index, while the U.S. stock indices also reported gains [3] - The bond market showed mixed results, with slight declines in short-term yields and increases in longer-term yields, indicating varied investor sentiment [3] Group 6: Fund Market Trends - The bank wealth management market is dominated by fixed-income funds, with 328 funds representing 51.09% of the total, reflecting investor preference for stable returns [5] - Bank wealth management subsidiaries lead in new product issuance, accounting for 73.99% of new products and 96.33% of total scale, indicating their competitive advantage in the market [5] - The demand for low-risk and innovative products is rising, supported by a favorable policy and regulatory environment, which enhances the performance of fixed-income assets [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by fixed-income products in China due to declining interest rates, emphasizing the need for domestic money market funds to learn from international experiences in managing their scale and attractiveness [1]. Group 1: Changes in Money Market Fund Scale in Major Overseas Markets - In the U.S., during periods when money market fund yields fell below 1%, there were significant outflows from these funds, particularly noted in 2003-2004, 2009-2017, and 2020-2021 [2][3][5]. - The Eurozone experienced a decline in money market fund scale during the positive interest rate period from 2009 to 2014, with a contraction of 43%, but saw a rebound during the negative interest rate period from 2014 to 2022, with a 24% increase from historical lows [6][8]. - Japan's money market funds (MMF) faced extinction due to negative interest rates, while money reserve funds (MRF) thrived due to special regulatory arrangements that exempted them from negative rates [9][10]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Money Market Fund Scale Changes - The elasticity of nominal interest rates to policy rate changes leads to a "funds migration" effect, where money market fund yields are more sensitive to central bank rate adjustments compared to bank deposit rates [11][13]. - Different central bank policies regarding negative interest rates have resulted in divergent outcomes for MMFs in Europe and Japan, with Japan's MMFs ceasing operations while European MMFs expanded [19][20]. - Inflation impacts actual interest rates, influencing market preferences for low-risk assets; lower inflation typically leads to higher demand for money market funds and similar products [21]. Group 3: Implications for China's Money Market Funds - China's money market rates have historically shown a higher beta value compared to deposit rates, but this trend has reversed since 2023, indicating a potential shift in fund flows [22]. - The future of money market funds in China will depend on the central bank's ability to maintain attractive yields relative to deposit rates, especially as rates approach or fall below 1% [24]. - Anticipated adjustments in monetary policy could lead to a correction in the low beta environment of money market rates, potentially impacting fund flows and necessitating proactive strategies from fund managers [23][24].

Core Insights - The A-share market has stabilized and rebounded since 2025, leading to a reshuffling in the public fund sales landscape, with significant growth in non-monetary fund holdings surpassing 10 trillion yuan [1][2] - The top fund distribution institutions, such as Ant Fund and China Merchants Bank, dominate the market, holding over 25% of the total non-monetary fund scale [1][2] - A structural change in investor preferences is evident, with a shift towards more transparent and lower-fee products, particularly passive and fixed-income funds [2][3] Growth Structure - In the first half of 2025, the non-monetary fund holdings of the top 100 distribution institutions reached 10.2 trillion yuan, a 6.95% increase, while equity fund holdings grew by 5.89% to 5.14 trillion yuan [1][2] - Stock index funds saw a remarkable growth of 14.57%, nearing 2 trillion yuan, indicating a recovery in investor confidence driven by rising core indices [1][2] - Smaller institutions are struggling to balance scale and profitability, with a continuing trend of market concentration favoring larger players [2][3] Channel Dynamics - The distribution landscape is increasingly characterized by a three-way competition among banks, brokerages, and independent sales institutions, with a clear restructuring of their market shares [3][4] - Banks still hold over 40% of equity fund holdings, but their market share is declining, as younger investors prefer digital platforms [3][4] - Brokerages and third-party platforms are gaining ground due to their product flexibility and online capabilities, with brokerages increasing their market share in equity funds to 27.41% [4][5] Index Fund Surge - Stock index funds are the hottest category in the current fund growth, with brokerages maintaining a dominant position due to their trading advantages [5][6] - Banks are rapidly increasing their index fund sales, with a year-on-year growth of 99.2% in the first half of 2025, indicating a strategic response to market trends [5][6] - Major banks like Agricultural Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank have significantly increased their index fund sales, showcasing their adaptability [5][6] Future Outlook - Despite positive growth data, the fund distribution industry remains cautious due to impending fee reforms that will impact revenue structures and product strategies [7][8] - The upcoming fee reductions are expected to challenge traditional sales models, pushing institutions to enhance their advisory services [7][8] - Regulatory changes are likely to encourage brokerages to invest more in equity product sales, further accelerating industry transformation [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The non-monetary fund holding scale exceeding 10 trillion yuan marks a significant milestone in the maturity of China's public fund market, indicating a transformation in channels, products, and client structures that will shape future competition [1][15]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of mid-2025, the non-monetary fund holding scale of the top 100 distribution institutions reached 10.2 trillion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.95%, while equity fund scale grew by 5.89% to 5.14 trillion yuan [2][5]. - The stock index fund segment saw a remarkable growth of 14.57%, nearing 2 trillion yuan, reflecting a recovery in investor confidence amid a rising A-share market [5][6]. Group 2: Structural Changes - There is a notable differentiation in growth, with leading institutions like Ant Fund and China Merchants Bank holding over 25% of the market share, while smaller institutions struggle to balance scale and profitability [6][7]. - The growth in fund scale is primarily driven by passive products and fixed-income funds, indicating a shift in investor preference towards more transparent and lower-fee products [7]. Group 3: Channel Dynamics - The distribution landscape is increasingly characterized by a tripartite structure of banks, securities firms, and independent sales agencies, with banks holding over 40% of equity fund holdings but experiencing a decline [9][10]. - Securities firms and third-party platforms are gaining market share due to their product flexibility and online capabilities, with securities firms' market share in equity funds rising to 27.41% [9][10]. Group 4: Index Fund Growth - Index funds are the hottest category in the current fund scale growth, with securities firms maintaining a dominant position due to their trading attributes and customer structure [11][12]. - Banks are rapidly increasing their index fund sales, with a year-on-year growth of 99.2% in the first half of 2025, indicating a strategic response to market trends and changing client needs [11][12]. Group 5: Future Challenges - The upcoming third phase of public fund fee reforms is expected to significantly impact the income structure and product strategies of distribution institutions, necessitating a shift from sales-driven to service-driven models [14][16]. - Institutions must adapt to fee changes, enhance advisory capabilities, and optimize product structures to remain competitive in the evolving market landscape [14][16].