编者按：2025年，公募基金行业迎风而上、向新而行，在深化变革的浪潮中，踏出了高质量发展的坚定 步伐。当行业规模昂首迈向37万亿元新高度，一条从"规模扩张"到"质量跃升"的转型之路清晰铺展。 这一年，费率改革"三步走"平稳落地，推动行业回归投研本源；ETF市场百花齐放，构建多元竞争新格 局；权益类基金伴随A股修复稳步回升，以扎实业绩兑现长期投资承诺；科技创新主题基金紧扣时代脉 搏，精准把握产业升级机遇；个人养老金产品持续丰富优化，为居民养老规划奠定坚实财富基础；基金 分红广度与深度同步提升，切实增强投资者获得感……每一项突破，都凝结着行业的智慧；每一次进 阶，都回应着时代的期许。 岁末已至，新篇待启。让我们以十大关键词勾勒出这段砥砺奋进的历程，沉淀发展经验，汲取前行力 量。 ■本报记者 吴珊 昌校宇 方凌晨 王宁 彭衍菘 重塑生态： 公募基金明确"为何而战" 2025年，围绕"推动公募基金高质量发展"这一主线，监管部门相继推出一系列新规，从考核激励、投资 行为到费率结构进行全面重塑，旨在推动行业从"重规模"向"重回报"转变。 这场改革的关键点是今年5月份发布的《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》，具体措施25条 ...

Market Overview - In October, the investment agreements between Japan, South Korea, and the United States were finalized, leading to significant gains in the Japanese and South Korean stock markets, which rose by 19.1% and 12.2% respectively[3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a notable decline of 8.53% during the same period[3] Global Asset Flows - Global money market funds saw an inflow of approximately $1,290 billion in October, a decrease from $1,550 billion in September[19] - The U.S. equity market attracted $595.1 billion, while China and emerging markets received inflows of $180.6 billion and $241.6 billion respectively[19] China Market Dynamics - In October, China's equity market attracted $180.62 billion, accounting for 74.76% of the total inflow into emerging markets[19] - The inflow into China's fixed income market was $26.17 billion, representing 32.09% of the total emerging market inflow[19] Country Allocation Trends - Global funds' allocation to the Chinese stock market has rebounded to the historical 40th percentile, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from September[19] - The allocation to the U.S. stock market was 61.6%, reflecting a marginal increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[19] Risk Considerations - Short-term asset price fluctuations may not accurately represent long-term trends, and there are risks associated with potential economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of "bottom warehouse thinking" in a volatile market, suggesting that investors should allocate a portion of their portfolio to stable, long-term "bottom warehouse" funds to manage risks and enhance returns [2][4]. Group 1: Definition and Characteristics of Bottom Warehouse Funds - Bottom warehouse funds are defined as the portion of fund assets that investors hold long-term, serving as the foundation of their investment portfolio, even during significant market downturns [2][5]. - These funds focus on steady appreciation rather than frequent trading, playing a crucial role in risk smoothing and balanced asset allocation [3][5]. - Key characteristics of suitable bottom warehouse funds include balanced investment across various sectors, long-term value potential, and the ability to provide a positive investment experience [5][6][7]. Group 2: Reasons for Allocating to Bottom Warehouse Funds - The article cites Benjamin Graham's perspective that bull markets can lead to significant losses for ordinary investors, highlighting the need for a balanced approach during market fluctuations [4]. - Current market conditions, with the Shanghai Composite Index around 3900 points, indicate increased volatility and a slowdown in capital inflows, making bottom warehouse funds essential for risk management [4][5]. - A well-structured fund portfolio can help investors participate in long-term growth opportunities while mitigating short-term volatility [4]. Group 3: Selection Criteria for Bottom Warehouse Funds - The selection of bottom warehouse funds should be based on the overall asset allocation framework and the investor's risk tolerance and investment goals [8]. - Types of funds that are often considered for bottom warehouse allocation include fixed income funds, broad-based index funds, and dividend strategy funds [9][10][13]. - Broad-based index funds aim to capture market average returns and are recommended for investors seeking stability and alignment with overall market performance [10][12]. Group 4: Specific Fund Types for Bottom Warehouse Allocation - Dividend strategy funds provide a dual benefit of generating income through dividends and capital appreciation, appealing to investors seeking both cash flow and long-term growth [13][14]. - Fixed income funds, while less prominent in a booming equity market, play a vital role in reducing portfolio volatility and providing steady income [15][16]. - The article emphasizes that a balanced portfolio does not require precise market predictions but should focus on dynamic adjustments based on market conditions [16][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Campisi model, a classic attribution framework in the fixed - income field, decomposes the total return of a pure - bond fund into four effects: income, treasury, spread, and selection effects, helping to evaluate a fund manager's abilities such as duration management and credit mining [6]. - The net - based Campisi model (RBA) constructs seven risk factors through factor regression, with advantages in high - frequency tracking and dynamic adaptability, capable of capturing strategy adjustments and market environment changes [2][80]. - The net - based Campisi model has strong explanatory power for fixed - income funds. From early 2025 to August 22, 2025, the adjusted R - squared generally exceeded 0.6, indicating that the model can explain most of the income sources [2][80]. - The model can identify strategy characteristics. For example, in 2025, interest - rate bond funds generally extended their durations, and credit bond funds shifted to a diversified strategy due to narrowing spreads. "Fixed - income +" funds balanced risks and returns through diversified rating allocations and maintained high exposure to option - containing assets [2][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Performance Attribution of Fixed - Income Funds - The core value of fixed - income fund performance attribution lies in evaluating management capabilities, guiding investment decisions, and optimizing risk management. Its practical significance benefits investors, managers, and regulatory agencies [5]. 3.2 Net - based Campisi Model 3.2.1 Campisi Model Principle - The Campisi model decomposes the total return of a pure - bond fund into four effects: income, treasury, spread, and selection effects, helping to assess a fund manager's abilities in various aspects [6]. - The income effect is the coupon income during bond holding, independent of market interest rate fluctuations. The treasury effect measures the impact of changes in risk - free interest rates on bond prices, and the spread effect reflects the impact of changes in credit spreads on bond prices. The selection effect reflects the fund manager's active management ability [7][8][13]. - The Campisi model can be divided into the portfolio - based (PBA) and net - based (RBA) models. PBA has high decomposition accuracy but low timeliness, while RBA has high - frequency tracking and dynamic adaptability [14]. 3.2.2 Model Construction and Factor Selection - The net - based Campisi model decomposes bond returns into seven factors: interest - rate level, term structure, convexity, credit spread, rating spread, convertible bond, and equity factors [18]. - Each factor has its own construction method and reflects different aspects of a fund's risk exposure and strategy preference. For example, the interest - rate level factor reflects the impact of the parallel shift of the interest - rate curve on bond portfolio returns, and the convertible bond factor captures the income contribution of convertible bond assets [20][34]. 3.2.3 Factor Performance and Processing - Since January 2020, the convertible bond and equity factors have fluctuated greatly, while non - option - containing factors have shown an upward trend in the long - term. The interest - rate level, term structure, credit spread, and rating spread factors have stable long - term trends, and the convexity factor has the smallest fluctuation [39]. - There are certain correlations among the factors. For example, the convertible bond factor and the equity factor have a strong positive correlation, while the interest - rate level factor has a negative correlation with the convertible bond and equity factors [40]. 3.3 Bond Fund Performance Evaluation Empirical Analysis 3.3.1 Pure - Bond Fund Attribution Analysis - From early 2025 to August 22, 2025, the adjusted R - squared of interest - rate bond funds and credit bond funds was generally high, indicating that the model can explain most of the fund income [45]. - Compared with 2024, in 2025, interest - rate bond funds generally extended their durations and increased exposure to convexity factors. Credit bond funds also extended their durations but to a lesser extent, and their investment strategies became more diversified [45][50][52]. - Short - term bond funds have a higher average exposure to the term structure factor, reflecting their preference for short - term bonds. Medium - and long - term bond funds have more diversified investment directions in credit bonds [55]. 3.3.2 Characteristics of Top - Ranked Pure - Bond Funds in Alpha in 2025 - Top - ranked medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds in Alpha generally have higher exposure to the interest - rate level factor and negative exposure to the term structure factor. Alpha, mainly from the selection effect, has a relatively small impact on their performance [58]. - Top - ranked medium - and long - term credit bond funds in Alpha have negative exposure to the rating spread factor, indicating a tendency to reduce credit risk exposure. Alpha also has a relatively small impact on their performance [61]. 3.3.3 "Fixed - Income +" Fund Attribution Analysis - From early 2025 to August 22, 2025, the adjusted R - squared of "fixed - income +" funds was generally high, and most of them had positive Alpha, indicating strong overall active management ability [63]. - In a low - interest - rate environment, "fixed - income +" funds balance risks and returns through diversified rating allocations and maintain high exposure to option - containing assets [67]. 3.3.4 Characteristics of "Fixed - Income +" Funds with Strong Active Management Ability in 2025 - Top - ranked "fixed - income +" funds in Alpha rely more on the fund manager's active management ability, and Alpha has a greater impact on their performance [76]. - Top - ranked "fixed - income +" funds in the convertible bond factor also mostly have strong active management ability [78]. 3.4 Investment Analysis Opinions - The net - based Campisi model provides a systematic tool for fixed - income funds, helping investors screen and allocate funds with stable strategies and strong active management abilities [80][81].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the approval by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for Shanghai Securities to become the major shareholder of Qianhai United Fund Management Co., marking a significant step in the acquisition process [1][3] - Shanghai Securities has acquired a 100% stake in Qianhai United Fund, with a capital contribution of 200 million RMB, and is required to complete relevant business registration changes and improve corporate governance [3] - The acquisition originated from a judicial auction on February 7, where Shanghai Securities successfully bid for a 30% stake at 37.66 million RMB, approximately 44% lower than the assessed value of 67.25 million RMB [3] Group 2 - Qianhai United Fund, established in August 2015, is the 99th fund management company in China, with its peak management scale reaching 49.63 billion RMB at the end of 2020, but has since declined to 8.99 billion RMB by September 28, 2025 [3] - The company has not launched any new funds since September 2021, and two products issued in 2022 failed to raise funds [3] - The trend of ownership transfers among small and medium-sized fund companies reflects the challenges faced in the development of small-scale public funds [4]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple public fund institutions have initiated a new round of portfolio adjustments to respond to the changing market environment, indicating a proactive approach to asset allocation in light of market volatility [1] Group 1: Portfolio Adjustments - Some portfolios have reduced their allocation to mixed funds while increasing the proportion of fixed-income funds [1] - Certain portfolios are seeking quality assets that benefit from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] - Other portfolios have increased their holdings in balanced funds that have shown relatively stable net value performance over the medium to long term [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Despite short-term fluctuations, investment advisory institutions believe that the overall upward trend of the equity market remains intact [1] - There is an emphasis on rationally viewing profit-taking sell-offs and avoiding the pitfalls of chasing highs and selling lows [1] - A balanced asset allocation with a medium to long-term perspective is recommended [1]

Core Insights - Multiple public fund institutions have initiated a new round of portfolio adjustments in response to the changing market environment [1] - Some portfolios have reduced their allocation to mixed funds while increasing their allocation to fixed-income funds [1] - Other portfolios are seeking quality assets that benefit from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] - Certain portfolios have increased their positions in balanced funds that have shown relatively stable net value performance over the medium to long term [1] - Investment advisory institutions indicate that short-term fluctuations do not alter the overall upward trend of the equity market, advocating for a rational view on profit-taking and a balanced asset allocation from a medium to long-term perspective [1]

Group 1: Service Consumption Policies - The Ministry of Commerce, along with eight other departments, released a document outlining 19 specific measures to promote service consumption growth, focusing on enhancing high-quality service supply capabilities [1] - Key initiatives include launching "Service Consumption Season" activities, supporting cross-industry collaborations, expanding pilot programs in telecommunications and healthcare, and optimizing student holiday arrangements [1] - The document emphasizes the establishment of pilot cities for new consumption formats, models, and scenarios to stimulate market vitality, reflecting the government's commitment to the service consumption market [1] Group 2: Mergers and Acquisitions - Local state-owned capital merger funds are becoming significant market players, with regions like Shanghai, Shenzhen, Fujian, and Zhejiang establishing or planning such funds, aligning with national strategic directions [2] - The introduction of policies like the "Six Merger Guidelines" indicates an improved policy environment for mergers and acquisitions, assigning these funds a crucial role in driving industrial upgrades and regional transformations [2] Group 3: Financial Market Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is seeking public opinion on new regulations for the management of public fund sales expenses, which may impact the performance of short-term bond funds [2] - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking its first rate cut in nine months, amid concerns over employment and economic growth [2] Group 4: SoftBank's Strategic Adjustments - SoftBank Group announced a nearly 20% reduction in its Vision Fund team, focusing remaining resources on founder Masayoshi Son's AI projects, particularly the $500 billion Stargate initiative [3] - This restructuring reflects SoftBank's strategy to adapt to challenges while maintaining a focus on high-potential investment areas [3] Group 5: Market Performance Overview - Major global stock markets saw an upward trend, with notable performances from China's Shenzhen Component Index and the Hang Seng Index, while the U.S. stock indices also reported gains [3] - The bond market showed mixed results, with slight declines in short-term yields and increases in longer-term yields, indicating varied investor sentiment [3] Group 6: Fund Market Trends - The bank wealth management market is dominated by fixed-income funds, with 328 funds representing 51.09% of the total, reflecting investor preference for stable returns [5] - Bank wealth management subsidiaries lead in new product issuance, accounting for 73.99% of new products and 96.33% of total scale, indicating their competitive advantage in the market [5] - The demand for low-risk and innovative products is rising, supported by a favorable policy and regulatory environment, which enhances the performance of fixed-income assets [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by fixed-income products in China due to declining interest rates, emphasizing the need for domestic money market funds to learn from international experiences in managing their scale and attractiveness [1]. Group 1: Changes in Money Market Fund Scale in Major Overseas Markets - In the U.S., during periods when money market fund yields fell below 1%, there were significant outflows from these funds, particularly noted in 2003-2004, 2009-2017, and 2020-2021 [2][3][5]. - The Eurozone experienced a decline in money market fund scale during the positive interest rate period from 2009 to 2014, with a contraction of 43%, but saw a rebound during the negative interest rate period from 2014 to 2022, with a 24% increase from historical lows [6][8]. - Japan's money market funds (MMF) faced extinction due to negative interest rates, while money reserve funds (MRF) thrived due to special regulatory arrangements that exempted them from negative rates [9][10]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Money Market Fund Scale Changes - The elasticity of nominal interest rates to policy rate changes leads to a "funds migration" effect, where money market fund yields are more sensitive to central bank rate adjustments compared to bank deposit rates [11][13]. - Different central bank policies regarding negative interest rates have resulted in divergent outcomes for MMFs in Europe and Japan, with Japan's MMFs ceasing operations while European MMFs expanded [19][20]. - Inflation impacts actual interest rates, influencing market preferences for low-risk assets; lower inflation typically leads to higher demand for money market funds and similar products [21]. Group 3: Implications for China's Money Market Funds - China's money market rates have historically shown a higher beta value compared to deposit rates, but this trend has reversed since 2023, indicating a potential shift in fund flows [22]. - The future of money market funds in China will depend on the central bank's ability to maintain attractive yields relative to deposit rates, especially as rates approach or fall below 1% [24]. - Anticipated adjustments in monetary policy could lead to a correction in the low beta environment of money market rates, potentially impacting fund flows and necessitating proactive strategies from fund managers [23][24].

Core Insights - The A-share market has stabilized and rebounded since 2025, leading to a reshuffling in the public fund sales landscape, with significant growth in non-monetary fund holdings surpassing 10 trillion yuan [1][2] - The top fund distribution institutions, such as Ant Fund and China Merchants Bank, dominate the market, holding over 25% of the total non-monetary fund scale [1][2] - A structural change in investor preferences is evident, with a shift towards more transparent and lower-fee products, particularly passive and fixed-income funds [2][3] Growth Structure - In the first half of 2025, the non-monetary fund holdings of the top 100 distribution institutions reached 10.2 trillion yuan, a 6.95% increase, while equity fund holdings grew by 5.89% to 5.14 trillion yuan [1][2] - Stock index funds saw a remarkable growth of 14.57%, nearing 2 trillion yuan, indicating a recovery in investor confidence driven by rising core indices [1][2] - Smaller institutions are struggling to balance scale and profitability, with a continuing trend of market concentration favoring larger players [2][3] Channel Dynamics - The distribution landscape is increasingly characterized by a three-way competition among banks, brokerages, and independent sales institutions, with a clear restructuring of their market shares [3][4] - Banks still hold over 40% of equity fund holdings, but their market share is declining, as younger investors prefer digital platforms [3][4] - Brokerages and third-party platforms are gaining ground due to their product flexibility and online capabilities, with brokerages increasing their market share in equity funds to 27.41% [4][5] Index Fund Surge - Stock index funds are the hottest category in the current fund growth, with brokerages maintaining a dominant position due to their trading advantages [5][6] - Banks are rapidly increasing their index fund sales, with a year-on-year growth of 99.2% in the first half of 2025, indicating a strategic response to market trends [5][6] - Major banks like Agricultural Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank have significantly increased their index fund sales, showcasing their adaptability [5][6] Future Outlook - Despite positive growth data, the fund distribution industry remains cautious due to impending fee reforms that will impact revenue structures and product strategies [7][8] - The upcoming fee reductions are expected to challenge traditional sales models, pushing institutions to enhance their advisory services [7][8] - Regulatory changes are likely to encourage brokerages to invest more in equity product sales, further accelerating industry transformation [7][8]