迎来补涨行情？2026年第一个交易日（1月5日）重点布局国产AI产业链的科创人工智能ETF华宝 （589520）强势上攻，场内涨幅最高上探4.91%，收涨4.74%，收盘涨幅刷新去年8月以来的新高，盘中 最高价（0.620）再创去年10月以来的高点。值得关注的是，该ETF近7个交易日中，有6个交易日上 涨，日k线或已走出"上行台阶"。 | 序号 | 名称 | 所時代 | 两日图 | 申万一级行业 | 申万二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 复目積电 | 12.59% | | 电子 | 未曾体 | 数字芯片设计 | 576亿 | 27.78亿 | | 2 | 优刻得-W | 9.36% | State No a | 计算机 | IT服务Ⅱ | IT服务Ⅲ | 140亿 | 22.154Z | | 3 | 福昕软件 | 8.84% | ac - proven | 计算机 | 软件开发 | 横向通用软件 | 89亿 | 5.87 亿 | | 4 | 思看科技 | 8.69% ...

芯片设备行业的爆发点在哪 20251231 摘要 存储周期扩展、先进制程自主可控提升以及先进封装等新技术突破，为 2026 年设备领域带来巨大投资机会，工艺复杂度提升使得单位产能对 设备需求量增加。 Q&A 一颗芯片是如何生产出来的？ 芯片的生产过程涉及多个复杂的步骤。首先，芯片的基础材料是一片硅片。在 这片硅片上，通过一系列操作制造出许多晶体管，这些晶体管可以进行 0 和 1 的计算。接下来，通过光刻、刻蚀等工艺，将这些晶体管连接起来，形成多层 电路，就像搭建摩天大楼一样。这些电路最终构成一个完整的集成电路，即我 们常见的芯片。 在这个过程中，需要使用各种设备。例如，光刻机用于在硅片 上的光刻胶层上进行激光照射，规划出电路图；刻蚀机则负责将这些规划好的 路径打通或导通；薄膜沉积设备和原子沉积设备用于填充金属，使其能够导电 并交换信号。最后，通过封装技术将脆弱的芯片保护起来，并使其能够与外界 电路（如 PCB 板）连接，从而实现实际应用。 半导体行业具有周期性，目前全球半导体产业处于哪个周期位置？ 半导体行业通常每五年左右经历一个周期。从历史来看，2019 年至 2021 年 期间，半导体行业经历了一个强劲的 ...

Group 1 - Commercial banks are accelerating capital increases and share expansions as the year-end approaches, with several banks like China Construction Bank and Bank of China taking measures to strengthen their capital base and support the real economy [1] - The issuance of special bonds targeting government investment funds has reached nearly 85 billion yuan this year, with multiple regions participating, indicating a trend of low-cost, long-term funding for government projects [1] Group 2 - Over 520 companies have been investigated by institutions since December, with a focus on popular sectors such as commercial aerospace and AI hardware, indicating strong interest in these areas [2] - 77 companies have reported full order books, particularly in the power equipment sector, suggesting robust demand and potential for profit growth in the coming years [2] Group 3 - The global memory chip market has experienced a significant price surge, with DRAM and NAND Flash prices increasing over 300% since September, driven by advancements in AI and "compute-in-memory" technology [3] Group 4 - The first large-scale production project for bio-methanol in China has officially commenced, marking a strategic advancement in clean fuel development [4] Group 5 - YUM China has announced a share repurchase plan totaling approximately $460 million, as part of a broader capital allocation strategy to return $1.5 billion to shareholders by 2026 [7][8] Group 6 - Yihua Group plans to raise nearly 200 million Hong Kong dollars through a new H-share placement, with 90% of the proceeds allocated for repaying bank loans [9] - Huafu Securities has had a 5 billion yuan public bond application accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, aimed at supplementing working capital [9] Group 7 - The Southern Black Sesame Group is progressing with a share transfer to a state-owned enterprise, which will result in a change of control and ownership structure [11]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor equipment sector is experiencing a high growth cycle driven by domestic controllability policies and AI technology, with a year-to-date index increase of 57.28% [1] Investment Framework - The investment framework is divided into three levels: industry prosperity cycle (40%-50% weight), company fundamentals (30%-40% weight), and valuation level [2][3] - The semiconductor equipment sector has completed its initial breakthrough and is entering a high growth phase, making it an ideal investment opportunity [2] Semiconductor Equipment Sector Outlook - The semiconductor equipment sector is in the early to mid-stage of a high growth cycle, supported by domestic policies and increasing demand from wafer fabs for mid-to-high-end equipment [4] - The dual drivers of domestic controllability policies and AI applications are expected to sustain the growth of the semiconductor equipment sector over the next three years [5] Investment Opportunities - The increase in domestic production rates and AI-driven demand are seen as key sources of excess returns, with companies successfully positioned in the AI supply chain expected to have significant growth potential [6] - The advanced packaging sector is also viewed positively, as it becomes crucial for enhancing chip performance amid the slowdown of Moore's Law [5][6] Market Dynamics - The storage chip sector is anticipated to experience a high growth cycle due to expansion, with expectations for acceleration in mid to late 2026 [6] - Caution is advised for stocks heavily reliant on price rebounds, particularly in the DRAM market, where prices have more than doubled since last year [7]

Core Insights - The 2025 Trilateral Economic Report highlights the resilience and opportunities of the East Asian economic circle amid global uncertainties, emphasizing the importance of trilateral cooperation among China, Japan, and South Korea [1][6]. Economic Scale and Trade - In 2024, the combined GDP of China, Japan, and South Korea reached USD 24.21 trillion, a 2.7% increase from 2023, accounting for over 24% of global GDP [2][40]. - The total population of these three countries is approximately 1.584 billion, representing nearly 20% of the global population, making it one of the most promising consumer markets [2][40]. - The goods trade volume among the three countries is estimated at USD 8.93 trillion in 2024, which is 18.8% of global trade, highlighting their role as stabilizers in global supply chains [2][40]. Demographic Challenges - The aging population is a significant challenge, with Japan having 30% of its population aged 65 and older, South Korea at 18%, and China nearing 14%, all exceeding the global average of 10% [3]. - Fertility rates are critically low, with South Korea at 0.7, Japan at 1.2, and China at 1.0, indicating potential long-term population decline [3]. Economic Outlook - The report predicts that the economic growth rate for the ASEAN+3 region may fall below 4% in 2025 due to global trade shocks, with growth for China, Japan, and South Korea expected to decrease from 4.1% in 2024 to 3.7% [3][40]. - Long-term projections suggest that potential economic growth for ASEAN+3 and the CJK economies could decline to 2.8% and 3.0% by 2050, respectively [3][40]. Regional Economic Integration - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has shown positive impacts on trade and investment, with the trade volume reaching USD 13 trillion in 2023, accounting for 30% of global exports [4]. - However, challenges remain, such as small and micro enterprises struggling to benefit from RCEP, and the need for improved customs facilitation [4]. Semiconductor Industry Collaboration - The semiconductor industry is highlighted as a critical area for trilateral cooperation, with South Korea leading in memory chips, Japan dominating in manufacturing equipment, and China rapidly advancing [5]. - Recommendations include establishing a trilateral semiconductor supply chain dialogue platform and joint research initiatives to enhance regional supply chain resilience [5]. Future Cooperation Directions - The report emphasizes the need for accelerated negotiations on the China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement (CJKFTA) and collaboration in emerging sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy [5]. - Strengthening regional cooperation is deemed essential to navigate uncertainties and promote sustainable growth across the region [6].

Core Viewpoint - Beijing Junzheng Integrated Circuit Co., Ltd. has submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, focusing on a fabless model in the semiconductor industry, with a strategic emphasis on "computing + storage + analog" across high-growth markets such as automotive electronics, industrial medical, AIoT, and smart security [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Founded in 2005 by Liu Qiang, Beijing Junzheng initially focused on embedded CPU development and has since evolved to become a leader in the automotive storage chip sector following a significant acquisition in 2020 [8][14][15]. - The company was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2011, becoming the first publicly traded company in the embedded CPU chip sector in China, with a current market capitalization of 39.679 billion [7][10]. Group 2: Product Lines - The core product lines include: - **Computing Chips**: These are the brain of devices, including self-developed CPUs and NPUs for AI tasks, used in smart security cameras and robotic devices [3][19]. - **Storage Chips**: Responsible for data storage and retrieval, focusing on high-quality DRAM, SRAM, and Flash chips for harsh environments like automotive and industrial applications [4][21]. - **Analog Chips**: These serve as the bridge between the digital and physical worlds, including LED drivers and combo chips for automotive and smart home applications [5][23]. Group 3: Market Position and Financial Performance - The company has seen significant revenue growth, with a notable increase from 340 million to 2.17 billion in revenue from 2019 to 2020, marking a 538% increase [16]. - Despite a decline in overall revenue from 54.1 billion in 2022 to 45.3 billion in 2023, the computing chip segment experienced a 43.9% growth, indicating resilience in the face of market challenges [26]. Group 4: Future Opportunities - The company identifies three major opportunities in the semiconductor industry: 1. **End-Device AI Explosion**: The market for AI devices is expected to grow from 24.8 million units in 2020 to 311 million units by 2024, with a CAGR of 88.1% [31]. 2. **Storage Revolution**: The shift from 2D to 3D storage technology is anticipated to drive significant market growth, with 3D DRAM expected to rise from $30-40 million in 2024 to over $700 million by 2029 [34]. 3. **Rise of RISC-V Architecture**: The open-source RISC-V architecture is set to lower design costs and enhance customization, providing strategic advantages for companies like Beijing Junzheng [36][39].