本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 免责声明 热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/10/9 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,286 | +33↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1374586 | +24718↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -23,217 | +21390↑ HC1-5合约价差(元/吨) | -7 | -1↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报( ...

Summary of Real Estate Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The real estate industry is supported by government policies such as the "three arrows" and "36 financial measures," aimed at improving the industry's balance sheets, stabilizing market expectations, and supporting both first-time and upgraded housing demand, promoting stable and healthy development of the industry [1][3] Key Points and Arguments Impact on Upstream and Downstream Industries - The stabilization of the real estate sector impacts various industries through three phases: new construction, construction, and completion [4] - A 1% increase in real estate sales growth can lead to: - A 2.37% increase in crane sales, corresponding to approximately 402.7 cranes [7] - A 1.61% increase in excavator sales, corresponding to 2,433 excavators [8] - A 0.3% increase in steel production, corresponding to 274.7 million tons of steel [9] - A 0.4% increase in development credit balance, corresponding to 23.5 billion yuan [10] - A 0.59% increase in cement production, corresponding to 12.69 million tons of cement [11] Specific Industry Effects - **Construction Phase**: - Cement usage accounts for about 20%-30% of construction materials, with a 1% increase in sales growth leading to a 0.59% increase in cement production [11] - Copper production increases by 0.61% for every 1% increase in real estate sales, corresponding to 791 million tons of copper [12] - Chemical products like polystyrene and soda ash also see production increases of 0.89% and 0.23%, respectively, for every 1% increase in sales [12] - **Completion Phase**: - Post-completion, homeowners may require renovation loans, linking closely to companies like Ningbo Bank [13] - A 1% increase in sales growth can lead to a 0.21% increase in furniture production [13] - The demand for home appliances such as air conditioners and refrigerators increases significantly, with air conditioner production increasing by 0.7% (103,000 units) and refrigerator production by 0.45% (39,900 units) for every 1% increase in sales growth [15][16] Broader Economic Implications - The real estate sector is recognized as a pillar of the national economy, with significant policy support aimed at mitigating risks and fostering a positive cycle in the industry [3] - The relationship between real estate sales and various sectors demonstrates the interconnectedness of the economy, highlighting the importance of real estate in driving growth across multiple industries [19][20] Additional Important Insights - The real estate sector's influence on the crane market shows a close correlation, with sales growth trends mirroring each other [6] - The furniture industry is less impacted by real estate sales compared to other sectors, with a longer production cycle and lower immediate responsiveness [14] - The demand for small household appliances is increasingly tied to real estate sales, indicating a growing consumer trend post-purchase [17] This comprehensive analysis underscores the critical role of the real estate industry in the broader economic landscape, emphasizing its influence on various sectors and the importance of supportive policies to ensure its stability and growth.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On Thursday, the HC2601 contract traded within a range. Mexico is seeking to raise the tariff rate on Asian - made cars by up to 50%. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased after a decline, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.06%. Inventory decreased slightly, and apparent demand increased significantly. Overall, the terminal demand for hot - rolled coils is fairly resilient, with both year - on - year and month - on - month increases in apparent demand, but tariff disruptions have affected market investment sentiment. Technically, for the HC2601 contract, the 1 - hour MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA are above the 0 - axis, with the green bar expanding. Short - term trading is recommended, with attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,334 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the trading volume was 1,323,310 lots, up 9,651 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 113,934 lots, down 7,049 lots. The HC10 - 1 contract spread was 38 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The HC Futures Exchange's daily warehouse receipt was 59,441 tons, up 34,382 tons. The HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 242 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,410 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou it was 3,370 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan it was 3,430 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin it was 3,320 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the HC main contract was 76 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The price difference between Hangzhou hot - rolled coils and rebar was 170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 801 yuan/wet ton, up 3 yuan. The market price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,290 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Hebei Q235 billets was 2,990 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 138.2532 million tons, up 623,000 tons. The inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 406,600 tons, up 9,500 tons. The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.2354 million tons, up 134,200 tons. The inventory of Hebei billets was 1.2895 million tons, down 75,800 tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.38%, down 2.80 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.77%, down 4.23 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 3.2514 million tons, up 109,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 83.06%, up 2.79 percentage points. The factory inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 808,800 tons, up 9,000 tons. The social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 2.9244 million tons, down 19,200 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 79.66 million tons, down 3.53 million tons. The monthly net export volume of steel was 9.01 million tons, down 380,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 2.5911 million vehicles, down 203,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume was 2.5934 million vehicles, down 311,100 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 20.5965 million units, down 7.7866 million units. The monthly output of household refrigerators was 8.7307 million units, down 316,800 units. The monthly output of household washing machines was 8.7743 million units, down 733,600 units [2] Industry News - On September 11, Mysteel information showed that the actual output of hot - rolled coils this period was 3.2514 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 109,000 tons; the factory inventory was 808,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,000 tons; the social inventory was 2.9244 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,200 tons; the total inventory was 3.7332 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,200 tons; the apparent demand was 3.2616 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 208,000 tons. Mexico's Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said the country is seeking to raise the tariff rate on Asian - made cars by up to 50% to protect about 320,000 jobs [2]

Core Viewpoint - The new national standard for household refrigerator energy consumption will be implemented on June 1, 2026, significantly reducing energy consumption requirements for refrigerators [1] Group 1: Standard Changes - The new standard will lower the energy consumption requirement for a 500L two-door refrigerator from 0.92 kWh/day to 0.55 kWh/day, representing a 40% reduction in energy consumption [1] - This is the fifth revision of the standard since its establishment in 1989, expanding its applicability to include motor-driven compression household refrigerators and semiconductor cooling devices with a volume of 60L or less [1] Group 2: Efficiency and Innovation - The revision raises the performance indicators and energy consumption limits for all energy efficiency levels of refrigerators, significantly reducing overall energy consumption [1] - New requirements for volume utilization rates and effective volume standards are introduced, encouraging companies to adopt high-performance, compact insulation materials [1] - The standard also includes requirements for smart grid signal response capabilities, promoting the intelligent and green development of refrigerators [1]

Economic Overview - Guangzhou's GDP for the first half of 2025 reached 15080.99 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [1] - The primary industry increased by 4.2%, the secondary industry by 2.1%, and the tertiary industry by 4.3% [1] Agriculture - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery was 236.01 billion yuan, growing by 4.4% [1] - Key agricultural products saw significant increases, with fruit production rising by 8.3% and fishery output by 2.7% [1] Industrial Production - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 0.7% year-on-year [2] - The automotive manufacturing sector faced challenges, with a decline of 5.7%, although new energy vehicle production increased by 9.5% [2] - The electronics and petrochemical manufacturing sectors showed stable growth, with increases of 1.6% and 6.3% respectively [2] - The integrated circuit manufacturing sector experienced a remarkable growth of 30.0% [2] Service Sector - The profit-making service sector's revenue grew by 9.2% from January to May [2] - The internet, software, and information technology services saw an increase of 8.7%, with internet platforms growing by 13.3% [2] - The sports industry benefited from the upcoming 15th National Games, achieving a revenue growth of 16.7% [2] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 5611.22 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [3] - Significant growth was observed in categories such as home appliances (27.6%) and sports and entertainment products (33.0%) [3] - Online retail sales increased by 16.4%, indicating a shift towards e-commerce [3] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment grew by 0.8%, with infrastructure investment increasing by 4.2% [4] - Industrial investment rose by 12.0%, supported by a 15.5% increase in industrial technological transformation investment [4] - High-tech service industry investment surged by 17.6%, with information service investment growing by 28.2% [4] Transportation - The transportation sector showed positive growth, with passenger volume reaching 1.63 billion, a 0.9% increase [4] - The cargo transport volume was 4.50 billion tons, growing by 2.4% [4] Financial Market - By the end of June, the total balance of deposits and loans in financial institutions was 176.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [4] - The loan balance for the manufacturing sector grew by 4.7%, indicating strong credit support for industrial development [4] Social Welfare - The per capita disposable income for urban residents was 46310 yuan, growing by 3.4% [5] - Significant increases in fiscal spending for social security and education were noted, with growth rates of 12.0% and 3.0% respectively [5]

广州第一大产业汽车制造业仍然处于较为艰难的状态 截至上半年，广州的房地产开发投资转正，汽车制造继续承压，服务业投资向"新"聚集。 7月29日，广州发布上半年经济运行数据，地区生产总值（GDP）同比增长3.8%，增速不及广东省 （4.2%）和全国（5.3%）水平，但快于一季度（3.0%）。 广州市统计局表示，上半年当地经济运行总体呈现稳中有进、结构向优的发展态势，发展基础不断夯 实，发展动能持续增强。但当前经济发展仍面临诸多挑战，外部环境的复杂性和不确定性增加，内部经 济结构优化升级还需持续加力。 今年上半年，广州实现地区生产总值15080.99亿元。其中，第一产业增加值112.34亿元，增长4.2%；第 二产业增加值3705.87亿元，增长2.1%；第三产业增加值11262.78亿元，增长4.3%。 房地产开发投资转正，释放企稳信号 广州上半年完成固定资产投资同比增长0.8%，其中房地产开发投资加快恢复，增长4.1%。 广东省房协专家委特约研究员、克而瑞广佛地区首席分析师肖文晓在接受第一财经采访时表示，广州上 半年房地产开发投资转正，很大程度上与去年四季度以来房地产市场的持续用力有关。 肖文晓向记者指出，从前 ...

Economic Recovery in Guangzhou - The latest economic data from Guangzhou indicates a positive recovery, with the city's GDP growth reaching 3.8% in the first half of the year, up from 3.0% in the first quarter [2][4] - The industrial output value of Guangzhou has finally turned positive after a year of decline, supported by the automotive industry [2][4] - Real estate development investment in Guangzhou also saw a positive growth of 4.1% in the first half of the year, reversing a 10.8% decline in the first quarter [2][11] Automotive Industry Performance - The automotive industry in Guangzhou is still recovering, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% in automotive industrial value added, although this is an improvement from a 6.4% decline in the first quarter [4][8] - GAC Group reported a total automotive sales volume of 755,300 units in the first half of the year, a decrease of 12.48% year-on-year [5][7] - GAC Toyota managed to maintain stability with a slight increase in sales of 2.58%, accounting for 45.63% of GAC Group's total sales [7] Industrial Growth and Investment - The overall industrial value added in Guangzhou increased by 0.7% in the first half of the year, marking the first positive growth since June of the previous year [8] - Key sectors such as electronics and petrochemicals showed stable growth, with value added increasing by 1.6% and 6.3% respectively [8][9] - The city's fixed asset investment grew by 0.8%, with infrastructure investment rising by 4.2% [12] Real Estate and Policy Support - The positive growth in real estate investment is attributed to supportive policies, including the acceleration of central special bonds [11][12] - The issuance of special bonds is also facilitating the launch of other investment projects, contributing to a 12.0% increase in industrial investment [12] Consumer Market Dynamics - Retail sales in Guangzhou increased by 5.9% year-on-year, outperforming both national and provincial averages [13] - The "old-for-new" consumption subsidy policy significantly boosted sales, contributing to a total of 482.7 billion yuan in sales [13] Foreign Trade and Economic Events - Guangzhou's total import and export value reached 605.05 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a 15.5% increase year-on-year [15] - The upcoming 15th National Games is expected to further stimulate economic activity, particularly in the sports industry, which saw a revenue increase of 16.7% [15][17]

Economic Overview - Guangzhou's GDP for the first half of 2025 reached 1,508.099 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8% at constant prices [2] - The city's fixed asset investment increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment growing by 4.2% and real estate development investment rising by 4.1% [3][4] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises in Guangzhou grew by 0.7% year-on-year, with the automotive manufacturing sector experiencing a decline of 5.7% [2] - New energy vehicle production increased by 9.5% year-on-year, while the integrated circuit manufacturing sector saw a significant growth of 30.0% [2] - The electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry grew by 11.3%, and specialized equipment manufacturing increased by 7.5% [2] Service Sector Growth - The profit-making service industry achieved a revenue growth of 9.2% year-on-year, with the internet, software, and information technology services sector growing by 8.7% [3] - High-end professional services such as human resources, advertising, and consulting saw substantial growth, with increases of 12.4%, 21.4%, and 28.4% respectively [3] - The sports industry experienced a revenue increase of 16.7%, driven by the upcoming 15th National Games [3] Transportation and Logistics - Passenger traffic in the transportation sector reached 163 million, marking a 0.9% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in air and rail transport [4] - The total cargo volume was 450 million tons, reflecting a 2.4% growth, with port cargo throughput increasing by 2.7% [4]

Economic Overview - Guangzhou's GDP for the first half of 2025 reached 15,080.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [1] - The primary industry increased by 4.2%, the secondary industry by 2.1%, and the tertiary industry by 4.3% [1] Agriculture - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery reached 236.01 billion yuan, growing by 4.4% [1] - Key agricultural products saw significant increases, with fruit production rising by 8.3% and fishery production by 2.7% [1] Industry - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 0.7% year-on-year [2] - The automotive manufacturing sector faced challenges, with a decrease of 5.7%, but new energy vehicle production increased by 9.5% [2] - The electronics and petrochemical manufacturing sectors showed stable growth, with increases of 1.6% and 6.3% respectively [2] - The new generation information technology industry thrived, with integrated circuit manufacturing increasing by 30.0% [2] Services - The profit-making service sector's revenue grew by 9.2% from January to May [3] - The internet, software, and information technology services saw an increase of 8.7%, with internet platforms growing by 13.3% [3] - The rental and business services sector experienced a revenue increase of 13.0% [3] Consumption - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 5,611.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [4] - Significant growth was observed in various categories, including home appliances (27.6%) and sports and entertainment goods (33.0%) [4] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment grew by 0.8%, with infrastructure investment increasing by 4.2% [5] - Industrial investment rose by 12.0%, supported by a 15.5% increase in industrial technological transformation investment [5] Transportation - The transportation sector showed positive growth, with passenger volume reaching 163 million, a 0.9% increase [6] - The cargo transport volume was 450 million tons, growing by 2.4% [6] Financial Market - By the end of June, the total balance of deposits and loans in financial institutions reached 17.69 trillion yuan, a 4.8% increase [7] - The loan balance for manufacturing and technology services grew significantly, with increases of 4.7% and 22.9% respectively [7] Resident Income - The per capita disposable income for urban residents was 46,310 yuan, a 3.4% increase, while rural residents saw a 5.6% increase to 23,568 yuan [8] - Significant growth in fiscal spending for social security and education was noted, with increases of 12.0% and 3.0% respectively [8]

Core Insights - The industrial added value in Guangzhou increased by 0.7% year-on-year in the first half of the year [1] Group 1: Automotive Industry - The automotive manufacturing sector faced challenges during the transition period, with added value decreasing by 5.7% year-on-year, although the decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - The production of new energy vehicles accelerated, with cumulative output increasing by 9.5%, an improvement of 8.8 percentage points from the first quarter [1] Group 2: Electronics and Petrochemicals - The electronics manufacturing industry and petrochemical manufacturing industry showed stable growth, with added value increasing by 1.6% and 6.3% respectively [1] - The "two new" policy effects continued to be released, driving the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry and specialized equipment manufacturing industry to achieve added value growth of 11.3% and 7.5% respectively [1] Group 3: Home Appliances and New Generation Information Technology - Home appliances such as refrigerators, fans, and smartphones experienced rapid production with double-digit growth [1] - The new generation information technology industry is expanding, with the integrated circuit manufacturing industry seeing added value growth of 30.0%, and production of liquid crystal display modules, analog chips, and industrial robots increasing by 150%, 19.5%, and 19.0% respectively [1] Group 4: Low-altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy industry is growing rapidly, with the added value of the aerospace and equipment manufacturing industry increasing by 17.1%, and the production of civil drones growing by 37.7% [1]