随着经营压力缓解，何小鹏与团队对前沿技术冒险的渴望重新显露。 文 丨 孟驰 新技术的冒险，有时要与悬而未决长时间相伴；但技术交锋剧烈时，一些技术流派的优势可能无法维 持半年。置身其中的企业不得不保持高度敏捷的应对姿势。 这大概也是为什么今年以来，车企们的智能驾驶部门架构普遍多次调整， 要么换人，要么换 "脑子" 。而小鹏汽车的结论是：革掉过去的成功经验。因为他们现在想把虚拟的 AI 规模化、可靠地部署在 真实世界的智能汽车、机器人、飞行汽车 —— 即他们所说的 "物理 AI "。 今年 4 月，小鹏对外发布自动驾驶模型技术路线 VLA（视觉-语言-动作）。它本是机器人领域的主流 技术框架，近年扩散到智驾领域。相隔仅半年多，小鹏就在今年的科技日上发布第二代 VLA 产品， 相比前代最大的变化是新一代 VLA 方案更 "拟人"，在一些场景会有意想不到的智能涌现：读懂随机 路人的手势、 在红绿灯路口前蠕行等。 小鹏机器人团队也有类似的 "涌现" 时刻。去年发布首款人形机器人后，今年初小鹏对机器人重新做了 设计： 做了专门的脊椎设计 、做了能收肩和耸肩的肩膀、 重新研发前脚掌的关节 ，新型机器人更因 为在今年科技日活 ...

行 业 及 产 业 2025 年 11 月 25 日 策略会重点公司更新；车展重点公 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 - 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 樊夏沛 A0230523080004 fanxp@swsresearch.com 联系人 邵翼 (8621)23297818× shaoyi@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 汽车 司更新 看好 ——一周一刻钟，大事快评（W133） 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 ⚫ 优信：新店盈利爬坡速度超预期，很重要的一个原因就是品牌建立起来（二手车为非标 产品，建立信任困难和且成本高），所以一旦品牌建立起来以后，盈利弹性非常大，行 业向好的情况下，盈利天花板可能也会远超预期，持续推荐。 ⚫ 上汽集团：明年的看点仍主要是华为，尚界 H5 反响一般的一个很重要的原因就是其用 户定位和宣传没有精准定位到目标人群，但是我们认为明年的新车会有调整，可能带来 布局机会。其次上汽通用五菱的华境我们认为是华为的第 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the relevant market index [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Xiaopeng Motors reported a narrowing net loss of 380 million yuan in Q3 2025, with a gross margin exceeding 20%. The company anticipates Q4 2025 vehicle deliveries to be approximately 125,000 to 132,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of about 36.6% to 44.3% [2]. - Xiaopeng's total revenue for Q3 2025 reached 20.38 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 101.8%. The automotive sales revenue was 18.05 billion yuan, up 105.3% year-on-year [2]. - The report emphasizes the strong growth in vehicle deliveries, with Q3 2025 deliveries reaching 116,007 units, a year-on-year increase of 149.3% [2]. - The company is focusing on dual-energy products and plans to launch several long-range extended-range models in 2026, aiming to capture the traditional fuel vehicle market in northern and inland cities [2]. - Xiaopeng is advancing its technology strategy centered on physical AI, with plans for significant upgrades in smart driving capabilities and the introduction of Robotaxi models by 2026 [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Xiaopeng's Q3 2025 total revenue was 20.38 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 20.1%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.8 percentage points. The net loss narrowed to 380 million yuan, showcasing improved cost control [2]. Market Expansion - The company reported a strong increase in overseas deliveries, surpassing 5,000 units in September 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 79%. The global sales network now covers 52 countries and regions [2]. Technological Development - Xiaopeng is focusing on the development of its self-researched Turing AI chip and plans to launch the VLA 2.0 model in Q1 2026, which is expected to enhance the smart driving experience significantly [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 122.71 [6][14]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of RMB 20.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 120%, and a net loss of RMB 3.8 billion, narrowing losses by 79% year-on-year [1][4]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 reached 20.1%, marking a significant improvement due to scale effects and cost control measures [2][4]. - The company is optimistic about its growth prospects in Q4 2025 and 2026, driven by multiple growth avenues including "dual energy + AI + robotics + external collaborations" [1][4]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue was RMB 20.4 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12% and a year-on-year increase of 102% [1][19]. - The gross margin improved to 20.1%, up 4.8 percentage points year-on-year, with vehicle gross margin at 13.1% [2][19]. - The company expects Q4 2025 deliveries to be between 125,000 and 132,000 units, projecting revenue of RMB 21.5 to 23 billion [2][19]. Business Segments - The automotive sales segment is projected to generate RMB 118 billion in revenue for 2026, with a price-to-sales ratio of 0.95x [4][11]. - The humanoid robot business is valued at approximately RMB 40 billion, with significant advancements in humanoid capabilities expected by the end of 2026 [4][11]. - The Robotaxi business is estimated to be worth RMB 33 billion, with plans to launch three models by 2026 [4][11]. Market Position and Collaborations - The company is set to launch the new X9 super range extender vehicle, which is expected to achieve high sales volumes due to its advanced features [2][4]. - Collaboration with Volkswagen is anticipated to enhance revenue through technology service fees and new model launches [4][13]. Valuation - The overall market capitalization of the company is estimated at approximately RMB 215 billion, with a target price adjustment to HKD 122.71 [4][14]. - The report employs a segmented valuation approach, considering automotive sales, robotics, and Robotaxi businesses [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced an overall decline of 1.6% during the week from November 2 to November 8, 2025, with significant drops in the passenger and commercial vehicle segments, which fell by 3.4% and 3.0% respectively [2][11]. - Xpeng Motors showcased its advancements in "physical AI" at its technology day, introducing the second-generation VLA large model and the humanoid robot IRON, which is expected to be mass-produced by the end of 2026 [1][25][28]. - The report highlights the performance of individual stocks, with notable gains for Haima Automobile (+50.0%), Weichai Power (+22.1%), and ST Meichen (+17.2%), while Hengshuai Co. (-20.8%) and Biaobang Co. (-20.0%) faced significant declines [3][16]. Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's secondary segments saw a comprehensive decline, with automotive parts and services experiencing smaller drops of -0.2% and -0.4% respectively, while tire and dealership segments showed positive growth of +1.9% and +1.8% [2][11]. - The overall market indices for the week showed mixed results, with the Shanghai A index rising by 1.1% and the Shenzhen A index by 0.4%, contrasting with the automotive sector's decline [9]. Recent Developments - Xpeng announced its entry into the Robotaxi market, planning to launch three self-developed Robotaxi models in 2026, which will utilize the second-generation VLA model and feature advanced AI capabilities [28]. - BYD plans to launch its high-end brand "Yangwang" in the Middle East in early 2026, marking its expansion into the luxury vehicle market [24]. - The report notes the successful IPOs of autonomous driving companies, including WeRide and Pony.ai, which reflect growing investor interest in the sector [31].

Group 1 - Yu Minhong confirmed the departure of Sun Dongxu from Dongfang Zhenxuan, highlighting Sun's contributions to the company's development [1] - Dongfang Zhenxuan was established in October 2021 with a registered capital of 10 million RMB, and is involved in various sectors including broadcasting and cultural operations [1] - Sun Dongxu's company has successfully registered multiple trademarks and copyrights related to its brand and products [1] Group 2 - Xiaopeng Motors addressed concerns about its IRON robot by publicly demonstrating its internal mechanical structure during a product launch event [3] - Tesla shareholders approved Elon Musk's compensation plan, allowing him to potentially earn up to $878 billion in stock over the next decade [6] - Xiaomi announced the discontinuation of its calling service effective December 3, 2025, due to the availability of similar features in other applications [6] Group 3 - Xiaohongshu has obtained a payment license through its subsidiary, enabling it to conduct internet payment services [8] - ByteDance's Doubao PC product head Qi Junyuan has left the company, with reports of interest from multiple dollar funds [9] - Wang Yibo's contribution to Lehua Entertainment's revenue is reported to exceed 60% in 2024, although the company claims this percentage is gradually decreasing [9] Group 4 - Huawei's Mate 70 Air launched with a market price increase of 300 RMB shortly after its release [9] - Fat Donglai Supermarket rewarded 20 employees with a total of 200,000 RMB for their bravery during an emergency incident [11] - Rabbit Mom responded to a product quality issue by confirming that the affected batch of shampoo was destroyed before reaching the market [14] Group 5 - Nissan announced the sale of its global headquarters for 97 billion JPY (approximately 4.5 billion RMB) as part of its business restructuring efforts [14] - Nissan established a joint venture for vehicle import and export in China, marking a significant step in its local operations [15] - Google is reportedly negotiating to increase its investment in AI startup Anthropic, which may exceed a valuation of 350 billion USD [15] Group 6 - Yushi Technology completed a Pre-A+ round financing of several million RMB to enhance its HPC and AI infrastructure [16] - Jabil announced the acquisition of Hanley Energy Group for approximately 725 million USD, with potential additional payments based on future performance [16] - Leap Bio completed nearly 100 million RMB in A+ round financing, focusing on cell therapy for various diseases [17] Group 7 - Google is set to launch its most powerful AI chip, Ironwood, aimed at enhancing AI model training and real-time applications [17] - iFlytek released the Spark X1.5 deep reasoning model, achieving performance metrics comparable to leading international models [18] - Yushu Technology introduced a full-body remote operation platform, showcasing its robot's capabilities in household tasks [19] Group 8 - ByteDance launched a free music app, Tomato Music, to diversify its music product offerings and cater to different user needs [21] - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported a significant decline in vehicle imports, with September figures showing a 25.6% year-on-year drop [21]

Core Insights - The launch of the RuiSheng M8 marks a significant entry into the MPV market, targeting the price-sensitive segment with a starting price of 169,800 yuan, while emphasizing a "business class" experience across all three rows of seating [2][21][22] - The MPV market in China is projected to see a total sales volume of 1.092 million units in 2024, with a slight year-on-year decline of 0.3%, yet the 150,000 to 250,000 yuan price segment is growing rapidly, now accounting for 42.7% of the market [2][17] - The RuiSheng M8 aims to redefine the value benchmark for large MPVs by offering competitive pricing and superior configurations, potentially disrupting the existing competition between domestic and joint venture brands [2][21] Pricing Strategy - The RuiSheng M8's pricing strategy effectively addresses the market's demand for high-end features at a reasonable price, with its starting price of 169,800 yuan being significantly lower than competitors like the Buick GL8 and Tengshi D9 [5][21] - The model fills a gap in the 150,000 to 200,000 yuan market segment, which has been underserved, particularly in terms of offering "large MPV + business-level configuration" combinations [5][17] Market Demand - Data from 2023-2024 indicates that balancing price and product capability is crucial for success in the MPV market, with the RuiSheng M8's pricing strategy appealing to families and small business owners looking for value [7][19] - The demand for family-oriented and business-capable MPVs is on the rise, with family users contributing over 50% of MPV sales, and the RuiSheng M8's design caters to both needs effectively [19][21] Product Innovation - The M8's unique selling proposition of "all three rows are business class" addresses a common consumer pain point regarding third-row comfort, which is often neglected in other models [10][12] - The vehicle features a spacious interior with a 2+2+3 seating layout, allowing for versatile use cases, from family outings to business meetings, enhancing its appeal [12][19] Powertrain and Technology - The RuiSheng M8 is equipped with a 1.5T hybrid system, achieving a fuel consumption of 5.8L/100km and a range exceeding 1,000 km, aligning with the market trend favoring hybrid vehicles [14][21] - Advanced technology features include a 15.6-inch central display and L2-level intelligent driving assistance, catering to the tech-savvy younger consumer demographic [14][16] Safety Features - The M8 includes comprehensive safety features, such as seven airbags and vehicle stability control, with higher trims offering additional active safety technologies, positioning it competitively within the 200,000 yuan MPV segment [16][21] Market Positioning - The RuiSheng M8's entry coincides with a critical adjustment in the MPV market structure, where the 150,000 to 250,000 yuan segment is experiencing significant demand, while higher-end models dominate the market [17][22] - The model's launch is expected to invigorate competition in the large MPV market, pushing for improvements in pricing, features, and technology across the board [22]

Investment Rating - The report rates the automotive industry as "Outperforming the Market" [29] Core Insights - The new energy vehicle sales continue to grow significantly, with various companies reporting impressive sales figures for October 2025 [3] - The report highlights the acceleration of intelligent driving technology among leading companies, indicating a shift towards enhanced user experience and competitive differentiation [3] - The investment recommendation focuses on companies that are leading in smart technology and user experience, specifically mentioning Xiaomi Group, Xiaopeng Motors, and Li Auto as key players to watch [3] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Leap Motor reported sales of 70,289 units in October, showing a year-on-year increase of 84.1% and a month-on-month increase of 5.4% [3] - Xiaopeng Motors sold 42,013 units, with a year-on-year increase of 75.7% and a month-on-month increase of 1.0% [3] - NIO's sales reached 40,397 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 92.6% and a month-on-month increase of 16.3% [3] - BYD maintained strong sales with 441,706 units sold, although it experienced a year-on-year decline of 12.1% [3] - Other companies like Geely, Changan, and SAIC also reported significant sales figures, contributing to the overall growth in the sector [3] Technological Advancements - Xiaopeng Motors is enhancing its intelligent driving capabilities, with a notable penetration rate of 86% for its XNGP urban driving feature [3] - Tesla continues to leverage its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, achieving a record global delivery of 497,000 units in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of technological innovation in maintaining competitive advantages within the automotive industry [3] Market Dynamics - The report suggests that the industry is moving towards a concentrated market structure, with leading companies establishing user experience barriers through advanced technology [3] - The competitive landscape is characterized by a focus on smart technology and integrated ecosystems, as seen with Xiaomi's automotive strategy [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaopeng Motors (9868.HK) with a target price of HKD 80.45, indicating a strong potential for stock performance in the upcoming months [1][13]. Core Insights - Xiaopeng Motors reported a significant improvement in gross margins for its automotive business in Q2 2025, with a gross margin of 14.3%, an increase of nearly 4 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. The company also achieved a delivery volume of 103,181 units, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 241.6% [3][6]. - The company’s revenue for Q2 2025 reached CNY 18.27 billion, marking a year-over-year increase of 125.3% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 15.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of CNY 480 million, which narrowed by 62.8% year-over-year [3][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Projections**: Expected revenues for 2025 are projected at CNY 81.97 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of 100.6% [5][11]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The net profit forecast for 2025 is a loss of CNY 1.21 billion, improving to a profit of CNY 2.28 billion by 2026 and CNY 4.68 billion by 2027 [5][11]. - **Gross Margin Trends**: The gross margin is expected to improve from 14.3% in 2025 to 18.9% by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5][11]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is projected to improve from -CNY 3.04 in 2024 to CNY 2.46 by 2027 [5][11]. Delivery and ASP Insights - The average selling price (ASP) of vehicles increased to CNY 164,000, attributed to a decrease in the proportion of lower-priced models and an increase in higher-priced models [6]. - The company has provided guidance for Q3 2025 deliveries between 113,000 to 118,000 units, with expected revenue between CNY 19.6 billion to CNY 21 billion [6]. Strategic Developments - Xiaopeng Motors is focusing on enhancing product design and has initiated pre-sales for the new generation P7, which has already surpassed previous models in pre-order numbers. The company plans to launch the X9 model, marking the start of a new product cycle [7][6]. - The collaboration with Volkswagen on electronic and electrical architecture is expected to boost service and other income, with Q2 2025 service revenue at CNY 1.39 billion [6]. Conclusion - The report indicates a strong outlook for Xiaopeng Motors, driven by improving margins, increasing ASP, and a robust product pipeline. The company is positioned to capitalize on its strategic initiatives and market trends in the automotive sector [6][7].

Group 1 - The article discusses the emergence of new rules and potential opportunities for Chinese companies to establish a second supply chain overseas, particularly in Mexico [2] - The competition between Xiaomi and BYD against Tesla is highlighted, indicating that these companies are becoming significant threats to Tesla's market position [3] - The year 2023 is noted as a pivotal year for humanoid robots, with companies like Yushun and Zhiyuan gaining traction and orders, validating the concept of a "production year" [4] Group 2 - The launch of AI Agent products led by Manus and Jingkun is creating a wave of entrepreneurial activity among Chinese individuals in the AI sector [5] - Lovart's introduction of ChatCanvas aims to compete with established platforms like Figma and Canva, indicating a growing trend in AI-driven design tools [5] - The global top two AI + PPT startups have completed Series B3 financing, aiming to create a comprehensive "AI office suite" [5][6] Group 3 - OpenAI is reportedly preparing to launch its flagship model GPT-5 along with mini and nano versions, indicating advancements in AI technology [7] - BYD plans to start production at its Hungary factory by the end of this year, with a target peak capacity of 300,000 vehicles, reaffirming its commitment to European expansion [7] - XPeng Motors has officially launched its first overseas manufacturing base in Indonesia, marking a significant step in its international strategy [7] Group 4 - Chinese Premier Li Qiang expressed a willingness to enhance economic cooperation with Europe, focusing on emerging fields like AI and digital economy [8] - CITIC Securities suggests that energy equipment, engineering machinery, and key materials could be potential collaboration points for Chinese companies in Europe as the region accelerates its strategic autonomy [8] - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for Chinese exports to Europe, driven by strong performance in machinery and vehicles [8][9] Group 5 - CITIC JianTou highlights investment opportunities in the medical device sector, particularly for companies that are innovating and entering profitability [9] - The report notes that several medical device companies are expected to experience significant performance improvements in the second half of the year [9]