宏观经济分析报告 "反内卷"与新质生产力发展并进 ――2026 年 1 月物价数据点评 展望来看，（1）生猪供给仍较充足，猪价或延续低位震荡；春节前鲜菜 价格或再度上涨。（2）油价对 CPI 同环比将转为上拉；（3）春节因素或 带动核心通胀同环比涨幅扩大。综上预计 2026 年 2 月 CPI 同环比涨幅均 扩大。 PPI："反内卷"与新质生产力发展并进 2026 年 1 月 PPI 同比降幅收窄，环比涨幅扩大。国际定价商品中，输入 性因素继续拖累国内石油相关行业价格；受铜矿供应持续紧缺、AI 投资 扩张等因素影响，有色金属产业链价格继续上行。国内定价商品中，（1） 上游原材料中，"反内卷"持续显效，基础化学原料制造、黑色金属加工 价格由降转涨，煤炭产业链则暂时降温。（2）中游制造业中，除"反内 卷"带动锂离子电池、光伏设备制造等价格由降转涨外，人工智能等数 字化技术加快发展、算力需求增长带动电子设备制造业价格环比上涨。 （3）下游消费品制造业中，春节提振效应明显，礼品和食品等备货需求 增加带动工艺品制造、农副食品加工价格上涨。 展望来看，2 月输入型通胀或有升温；国内定价商品价格的积极因素仍然 是两大方向， ...

"1月份物价运行呈现低位温和回升态势。"民生银行首席经济学家温彬分析称，CPI方面，虽然春节错月 影响下同比涨幅回落较多，但居民消费需求持续恢复，核心CPI温和上涨的态势没有改变；同时，PPI环 比连续第4个月上涨，同比降幅连续第2个月收窄，价格逐步企稳。 从走势来看，1月物价数据和去年12月相比出现了明显变化，由去年12月的CPI同比涨幅扩大、PPI降幅 收窄，转变为CPI同比涨幅有所回落、PPI降幅继续收窄。"但总体上看，物价温和回升的势头并没有发 生根本变化。"东方金诚研究发展部执行总监冯琳分析称。 1月CPI同比涨幅有所回落，主要涉及两方面原因。一是春节错月影响。上年1月份为春节月份，食品和 部分服务价格上涨较多，导致上年同期对比基数较高，带动本月同比涨幅回落较多。二是国际油价变动 导致能源价格降幅扩大。1月份能源价格下降5.0%，影响CPI同比下降约0.34个百分点，其中汽油价格同 比下降11.4%，降幅比上月扩大3.0个百分点。 不过，伴随居民消费需求持续恢复，核心CPI温和上涨的态势没有改变。1月份扣除食品和能源价格的 核心CPI环比上涨0.3%，为近6个月最高。 2月11日，国家统计局发布最新 ...

2月11日，国家统计局数据显示，今年1月，全国居民消费价格同比上涨0.2%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.8%。国家统计局城市司首席统计师 董莉娟表示，1月CPI同比涨幅有所回落，主要原因为春节错月影响和国际油价变动导致的能源价格降幅扩大。值得注意的是，国家统计局发布以2025年为 基期的全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）和工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）数据，这是本次基期轮换后的首次数据发布。国家统计局城市司相关负责人表示， 本次基期轮换对CPI和PPI各月同比指数的影响平均约为0.06和0.08个百分点，总体较小。 核心CPI保持温和上涨 数据显示，今年1月，全国居民消费价格同比上涨0.2%。其中，城市上涨0.2%，农村上涨0.1%；食品价格下降0.7%，非食品价格上涨0.4%；消费品价格上涨 0.3%，服务价格上涨0.1%。环比来看，1月，全国居民消费价格上涨0.2%。其中，城市上涨0.2%，农村上涨0.2%；食品价格持平，非食品价格上涨0.2%；消 费品价格上涨0.2%，服务价格上涨0.2%。 董莉娟表示，CPI同比涨幅有所回落，主要受春节错月影响和国际油价变动导致能源价格降幅扩大的影响。具体 ...

1月份，居民消费需求持续恢复，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.2%，扣除食品 和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.8%。受全国统一大市场建设持续推进、部分行业需求增加及国际大宗 商品价格传导等因素影响，工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.4%，同比下降1.4%。 股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 一、CPI同比涨幅回落主要受春节错月影响，核心CPI保持温和上涨 责任编辑：山上 二、PPI环比继续上涨，同比降幅收窄 PPI环比上涨0.4%，连续4个月上涨，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点。本月PPI环比运行的主要特点：一是 全国统一大市场建设持续推进带动部分行业价格上涨。水泥制造、锂离子电池制造价格环比均上涨 0.1%，均连续4个月上涨；光伏设备及元器件制造价格由上月下降0.2%转为上涨1.9%，基础化学原料制 造价格由下降0.1%转为上涨0.7%，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格由下降0.1%转为上涨0.2%。二是需 求增加带动相关行业价格上涨。人工智能等数字化技术加快发展、算力需求增长带动计算机通信和其他 电子设备制造业价格环比上涨0.5%，其中电子半导体材料、外存储设备及 ...

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) - In January, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, reflecting a decrease of 0.6 percentage points compared to December [1] - The decline in CPI is attributed to the Spring Festival timing and a significant drop in energy prices, which decreased by 5.0%, impacting CPI by approximately 0.34 percentage points [3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, marking the highest increase in six months, indicating a steady recovery in consumer demand [3] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) - The PPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month in January, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, with an expansion of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [5] - Factors contributing to the PPI increase include the ongoing construction of a unified national market and rising demand in certain industries [5] - Prices in sectors such as photovoltaic, battery, cement, and steel have shown positive improvements due to the "anti-involution" policies implemented last year [5] Group 3: Industry-Specific Price Changes - In January, prices for cement manufacturing and lithium-ion battery manufacturing increased by 0.1%, continuing a four-month upward trend [5] - The price of photovoltaic equipment and components shifted from a 0.2% decrease to a 1.9% increase, while basic chemical raw materials saw a 0.7% increase [5] - The prices of non-ferrous metal mining and smelting industries rose significantly, with silver smelting prices increasing by 38.2% and copper smelting by 8.4% [6] Group 4: Future Price Trends - The National Bureau of Statistics indicates that favorable factors for moderate price recovery are accumulating, supported by policies aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing market expectations [6] - The implementation of coordinated fiscal and financial policies is expected to gradually expand consumer demand, providing a foundation for stable price operations [6] - Emphasis on industry self-regulation and capacity management is anticipated to further enhance price recovery in key sectors [6]

Group 1 - In December 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month but decreased by 1.9% year-on-year [1][2] - The CPI's year-on-year growth rate expanded by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, reaching the highest level since March 2023, primarily driven by an increase in food prices, which rose by 1.1% [1][3] - Key food items such as fresh vegetables and fruits saw price increases of 18.2% and 4.4%, respectively, contributing approximately 0.16 percentage points to the CPI's year-on-year increase [1][2] Group 2 - The month-on-month CPI increase was influenced by rising prices of industrial consumer goods, excluding energy, which rose by 0.6%, contributing about 0.16 percentage points to the CPI [2] - The PPI's year-on-year decline of 1.9% showed a narrowing of the decline by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, with significant price reductions in coal mining and lithium-ion battery manufacturing [3] - Prices in sectors such as external storage devices and biomass liquid fuels increased by 15.3% and 9.0%, respectively, indicating a growth in new productive forces [3]

Core Insights - In December 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with urban areas rising by 0.9% and rural areas by 0.6% [3][20] - The producer price index (PPI) for industrial producers decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline compared to the previous month [12][25] CPI Analysis - The CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month in December, driven by increased consumer demand ahead of the New Year [20][21] - Food prices increased by 1.1% year-on-year, significantly impacting the CPI, with fresh vegetable prices soaring by 18.2% [6][23] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for four consecutive months [20][23] PPI Analysis - The PPI saw a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking the third consecutive month of growth [24][25] - The decline in PPI year-on-year was less severe than in previous months, indicating a potential stabilization in industrial pricing [12][25] - Key industries such as coal mining and lithium-ion battery manufacturing experienced price increases, reflecting improved supply-demand dynamics [24][25] Price Movement by Category - In December, food and beverage prices rose by 0.8% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.24 percentage points to the CPI [6][11] - The prices of production materials decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, with significant declines in mining and raw materials sectors [14][19] - The prices of durable consumer goods fell by 3.5%, while general daily necessities saw a price increase of 1.4% [14][19]

Core Viewpoint - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in November continued to rise month-on-month for the second consecutive month, with the year-on-year decline stabilizing compared to the previous month, indicating a trend of narrowing year-on-year declines since August [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Influencing PPI - Consumption upgrade is driving price increases, with notable price rises in sports and cultural goods. In November, the price of arts and crafts and ceremonial goods manufacturing rose by 20.6% year-on-year, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month. The price of sports balls manufacturing increased by 4.3%, up by 1 percentage point from the previous month [1][3]. - The development of emerging industries is positive, with accelerated industrial transformation towards intelligence and sustainability. In November, the price of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling increased by 7.8% year-on-year, up by 1 percentage point from the previous month. Prices for graphite and carbon products rose by 3.8%, and integrated circuit manufacturing prices increased by 1.7% [1][3]. Group 2: Market Competition and Policy Implications - The effects of regulating market competition are becoming evident, with the year-on-year price declines for photovoltaic equipment and components, lithium-ion batteries, and new energy vehicles narrowing by 2.0, 0.7, and 0.6 percentage points, respectively [2][4]. - The current PPI is still declining year-on-year, and further efforts are needed to solidify the foundation for a reasonable price recovery. Future strategies include expanding domestic demand, strengthening the domestic circulation, and improving supply-demand relationships to promote reasonable price recovery and enhance business operations [5].

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In November, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest growth since March 2024, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% [2][3] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by a shift in food prices from decline to increase, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 14.5% after nine consecutive months of decline [2][3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining above 1% for three consecutive months, indicating stable inflationary pressures [2][3] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month in November, marking the second consecutive month of growth, influenced by seasonal demand increases in certain industries [4] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 2.2%, with the decline slightly widening compared to the previous month, primarily due to high comparison bases from the previous year [4] - The increase in PPI was supported by rising prices in coal and gas sectors, while international oil price fluctuations led to a decrease in domestic oil and gas extraction prices [4] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The ongoing "anti-involution" measures are showing results, with price declines in key industries narrowing, indicating improved market competition [5] - Emerging industries are rapidly developing, contributing to price increases in related sectors, such as a 13.9% rise in external storage devices and components [6] - Future inflation is expected to remain low, with a gradual recovery in prices anticipated due to stable domestic demand and effective competition governance [7][8]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Trends - In November, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) slightly decreased by 0.1% month-on-month but increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest growth since March 2024, with a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month [1] - The rise in CPI year-on-year was primarily driven by a shift in food prices from a decline to an increase, with food prices changing from a decrease of 2.9% to an increase of 0.2%, impacting CPI by approximately 0.04 percentage points [1] - Fresh vegetable prices saw a significant turnaround, increasing by 14.5% after a 9-month decline, contributing an additional 0.49 percentage points to the CPI [1] Group 2: Core CPI and Industrial Prices - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for three consecutive months [2] - Service prices and industrial consumer goods prices, excluding energy, increased by 0.7% and 2.1%, respectively, contributing approximately 0.29 and 0.53 percentage points to the CPI [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month but decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, with the decline attributed to a high comparison base from the previous year [2] Group 3: Industry-Specific Price Changes - The "involution" competition in key industries has shown improvement, with price declines in coal mining, photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, and lithium-ion battery manufacturing narrowing over several months [3] - Emerging industries such as new materials and intelligent technology are driving price increases, with external storage devices and components rising by 13.9% year-on-year [4] - Consumer demand has been effectively released, leading to price increases in related industries, such as a 20.6% rise in the manufacturing of arts and crafts and ceremonial goods [5]