来源：鹏友来开会 2026年，中国股市仍处于调整结构、优化生态的历史进程中，彻底解决主要矛盾还需要一定时间；但推 动资产质量提升、市场信誉提升、公平竞争体系提升的共识也显著增强，公众更有信心增持中国资产。 一大批优质公司、一大批优质投资机构将以崭新面貌亮相。 预言四，半导体行情波澜壮阔。 2026年是我国的"AI+元年"，半导体产业在资本投入、产业扩张、技术突破等方面都将呈现新的气象。 美国对中国半导体企业继续采取压制和拉拢两手政策，跨国半导体人才回流中国可望加速。我国半导体 产业投资有望超过5000亿元甚至更高。 预言一，上证综指将突破5200点。 随着沪深股市推进结构性调整，长线资金入驻速率更加稳定，股指的稳定性也将增强。中央明确，2026 年将统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，有助于引导社会预期，降低跪美惧美心态对股市的影响。大盘 优质股票的价值将被挖掘，促使股指稳定上升。 目前上证综指市盈率仅17倍左右，具有进一步上涨的空间。随着资产质量提高和更多长线资金涌入，上 证综指将持续上涨，有望突破5200点一线。 预言二，量化交易将显著受限。 各方对量化交易的认识趋于统一，有望出台进一步限制量化交易范围的监管 ...

Core Insights - The number of foreign tourists entering China without a visa is significantly increasing, enhancing the international influence of Chinese cities and boosting tourism foreign exchange revenue [1] - The continuous growth of South Korean tourists is a highlight, with cities like Shanghai, Qingdao, and Zhangjiajie seeing an influx of visitors [1] - Kunming is also popular among South Asian and Southeast Asian tourists, nearing its 2024 annual visitor levels by the third quarter of 2025 [1] Group 1: Shanghai's Tourism Dynamics - Since the implementation of the visa-free policy for South Korean passport holders in November 2024, the number of South Korean tourists in Shanghai has surged, making them the largest source of overnight visitors in 2024 with over 446,000 arrivals [4] - By September 2025, the total number of South Korean tourists in Shanghai reached 619,800, marking a year-on-year increase of 121.09%, solidifying their position as the top inbound tourist group [5] - Factors contributing to this growth include the visa-free policy, low travel costs (approximately 700 RMB for a one-way ticket), and convenient transportation (2-hour flight) [5] Group 2: Qingdao's Challenges - Qingdao has historically attracted South Korean tourists, with 507,900 arrivals in 2019, but recent data shows a decline compared to Shanghai, with only 360,000 arrivals by November 2025 [5] - The city faces pressure to enhance its appeal and attract more South Korean tourists for weekend trips to capitalize on the "weekend economy" [5] Group 3: Kunming's Strategic Goals - Kunming aims to become the "first city for inbound consumption" from South Asia and Southeast Asia, with a focus on enhancing consumer experiences rather than just increasing visitor numbers [7][8] - The city has a strong foundation for attracting tourists from Thailand and Malaysia, with 554,700 and 226,000 visitors respectively in 2019 [8] - As of mid-2025, Kunming's inbound tourist numbers grew by 48.8%, with South Asian and Southeast Asian tourists making up over 60% of the total [9] Group 4: Future Prospects for Other Cities - Cities like Hangzhou and Chengdu are also positioning themselves to attract international tourists through events and improved services [12] - Hangzhou ranked 140th globally for international conferences, indicating its competitive edge in attracting visitors [12] - The overall trend suggests a significant potential for growth in foreign tourist numbers entering China via air travel, driven by expanded visa-free policies and increased international flight routes [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has introduced a series of policies aimed at expanding service consumption, which is seen as a crucial driver for economic growth and improving living standards. The measures focus on addressing barriers to service consumption development and enhancing the quality and variety of service offerings [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The policies emphasize a combination of improving people's livelihoods and promoting consumption, including initiatives for high-profile sports events, long-term care insurance, and early childhood education [1]. - The measures advocate for a dual approach of optimizing supply and stimulating demand, proposing pilot projects for new consumption models and enhancing consumer credit support [2]. - The government aims to balance external openness and internal deregulation, encouraging foreign investment in service sectors while reducing market entry barriers for domestic and foreign businesses [2]. Group 2: Market Performance - In the first half of the year, over 19 million foreign visitors entered China, marking a 30% increase year-on-year, with visa-free entries rising by 54% [3]. - The number of duty-free shops has tripled compared to the end of 2024, with a 248% increase in the number of people benefiting from duty refunds and a 98% rise in refund sales [3]. Group 3: Service Quality Enhancement - The government plans to enhance service supply quality by promoting innovation in service sectors, integrating various consumption formats, and increasing the availability of skilled service personnel [4]. - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism aims to improve tourism services and experiences through initiatives like the "Strong Foundation Renewal Action" for tourist attractions and promoting diverse tourism products [5]. Group 4: Financial Support - The People's Bank of China has established a 500 billion yuan fund to support service consumption and elderly care, with significant loan applications already submitted by financial institutions [5]. - As of July, the loan balance in key service consumption sectors reached 2.79 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [5].

Group 1 - The overall economic performance in the first quarter showed a growth rate of 5.4%, exceeding market expectations, indicating a positive trend despite complex internal and external environments [2][3][4] - Key highlights include rapid growth in consumption, particularly in service and development-oriented consumption, with significant contributions from sectors like tourism and digital services [2][3] - Investment in high-tech industries has also seen double-digit growth, reflecting a shift in economic structure and the emergence of new productive forces [3][4] Group 2 - The implementation of a package of incremental policies in September 2022 played a crucial role in stabilizing the economy, with ongoing macro policy adjustments signaling a commitment to economic stability [4][5] - The government has set a consumer price index (CPI) target of around 2% for the year, down from 3%, to enhance the credibility and operability of macroeconomic policies [6][7] - The government aims to balance active fiscal policies with debt risk management, leveraging its relatively healthy balance sheet to stimulate domestic demand [7][8] Group 3 - The "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" includes 30 specific measures aimed at enhancing consumer confidence and spending capacity, focusing on various sectors including tourism and entertainment [9][10] - The emphasis on high-quality supply in services, particularly in telecommunications, healthcare, and education, is crucial for creating effective demand and promoting consumption [11][12] - The government is encouraged to adopt a dynamic approach to policy adjustments, ensuring timely and effective responses to economic conditions [12][13] Group 4 - The relationship between government and market dynamics is evolving, with a focus on enhancing government roles in facilitating market integration and providing public goods [18][19] - The balance between total supply and demand is critical, with a current emphasis on expanding domestic demand, particularly consumption, as a primary driver of economic growth [20][21] - The new "three drivers" of economic growth focus on residents, enterprises, and government, highlighting the importance of consumer spending, private investment, and proactive government policies [22][23]

Consumption Trends - During the 2025 "May Day" holiday, domestic travel reached 314 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%[1] - Total spending by tourists was 180.27 billion RMB, up 8.0% year-on-year, with an average spending of 574.1 RMB per person, a slight increase of 1.5%[1] - Restaurant and retail revenues showed significant growth due to consumer promotion policies and holiday effects[1] Travel and Transportation - Cross-regional travel volume reached 1.467 billion trips from May 1 to May 5, with a daily average of 293 million trips, marking an 8% increase year-on-year[2] - Road travel accounted for 1.344 billion trips, a 7.6% increase, while rail travel saw a 10.8% increase with 102 million trips[2] Tourism Insights - Long-distance travel orders increased significantly, with destinations like Haikou and Yining seeing over 130% growth[3] - County-level tourism grew by 25% year-on-year, outpacing growth in higher-tier cities by 11 percentage points[3] Accommodation Preferences - Economic hotel bookings surged by 80% year-on-year, while high-end hotel bookings only increased by 15%[6] - Overall hotel occupancy rates exceeded 84%, reflecting a preference for cost-effective lodging options[6] Dining and Retail Performance - Key retail and dining enterprises reported a 6.3% increase in sales, with consumer vouchers playing a significant role in boosting restaurant revenues[7] - Retail sales of home appliances, automobiles, and communication devices grew by 15.5%, 13.7%, and 10.5% respectively during the holiday[8] Movie Industry Performance - Box office revenue during the holiday was 747 million RMB, down 51.1% year-on-year, primarily due to limited film supply[9]