证券研究报告·公司点评报告·软件开发 德赛西威（002920） 2025 年三季报点评：短期业绩承压，看好智 驾出海及产业外拓 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 21,908 | 27,618 | 33,381 | 42,038 | 50,445 | | 同比（%） | 46.71 | 26.06 | 20.87 | 25.93 | 20.00 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,547 | 2,005 | 2,593 | 3,326 | 4,012 | | 同比（%） | 30.57 | 29.62 | 29.32 | 28.28 | 20.62 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.59 | 3.36 | 4.34 | 5.57 | 6.72 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 49.83 | 38.44 | 29.73 | 23.17 | 19.21 | -22% -17% -12% ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q3 2025 results, showing a mixed performance with revenue growth but a decline in net profit, indicating challenges in the current market environment [3][4]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 7.69 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6% but a year-on-year decrease of 2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 570 million, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.57% and a year-on-year decline of 11.74% [3]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 22.337 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.72%, and a net profit of 1.788 billion, up 27.08% year-on-year, indicating strong cumulative growth [3]. Customer Impact - The sales volume from major client Li Auto decreased significantly, with a quarter-on-quarter drop of 40% and a year-on-year drop of 16%, which pressured the company's performance. However, new clients like Xiaomi and Great Wall Motors, along with increased penetration of smart driving technologies, helped maintain overall revenue stability [4]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin in Q3 2025 was 18.51%, down 1.95 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 1.65 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to intense price competition among downstream automakers. The overseas gross margin was significantly higher than domestic, with domestic gross margin at 19.7% and overseas at 29.0% [5]. - The company’s operating expense ratio increased to 12.04%, up 0.58 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to increased R&D investments. Sales expenses for January to September totaled 254 million, a year-on-year increase of 75.89% [6]. Capacity Expansion - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, with construction projects increasing from 445 million at the beginning of the year to 820 million by the end of September, a year-on-year increase of 84.08%. This expansion is expected to support production for smart driving controllers and cockpit products [7]. Global Strategy - The company is steadily advancing its globalization strategy, with production capacity contributions starting in Indonesia in May 2025, and the Monterrey plant in Mexico beginning production in June 2025. A smart factory in Spain is expected to be completed by the end of 2025, providing localized production for the European market [8]. Earnings Forecast - The company is viewed as a leading player in the smart driving components sector, with revised revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 33.4 billion, 42 billion, and 50.4 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 21%, 26%, and 20%. The net profit forecasts remain at 2.59 billion, 3.33 billion, and 4.01 billion for the same period, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30, 23, and 19 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The discussion on intelligent driving safety is ongoing, emphasizing that human-machine collaboration will be crucial for future developments in autonomous driving technology [1][3]. Group 1: Human-Machine Collaboration - Current intelligent driving capabilities do not meet user expectations, highlighting the need to build trust between humans and machines to optimize collaboration [3][4]. - If humans disengage from driving control, their driving skills may deteriorate, leading to risky behavior due to overconfidence in autonomous systems [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The urban navigation assistance feature (NOA) in intelligent driving vehicles faces challenges due to the complexity and diversity of China's traffic infrastructure, affecting user trust in these systems [3][4]. - Companies are focusing on enhancing the capabilities of intelligent driving products to handle complex scenarios, including increasing computational power and automating data processes for rapid system iteration [4]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The integration of large models in AI is expected to improve human-machine interaction by better understanding commands and emotional nuances [4]. - In five years, AI-driven vehicles may evolve from mere tools to intelligent companions, with systems potentially available in vehicles priced around 100,000 yuan [5]. - The automotive industry anticipates the mass production of intelligent cabins with long-term memory capabilities, leading to personalized driving experiences [5].

Core Insights - The company has successfully won two systematic project bids from Huineng Group and in Xinjiang, covering various aspects such as 5G communication networks, monitoring systems, data centers and services, intelligent ventilation systems, and video AI analysis systems, showcasing its comprehensive solution capabilities in the smart mining sector [2] - In the smart driving field, the company's first project has been successfully implemented with Shanxi Coal Group, and it is currently conducting multi-vehicle trial operations with Xingfa Group, indicating ongoing development and application of smart driving technologies [2] - The company plans to continue investing in research and development resources to promote the iterative upgrade of smart driving products, supporting stable growth in related business areas [2]

Group 1 - The report highlights the impact of high-interest deposit repricing on the banking sector, indicating that the inversion between the 10-year government bond yield and bank funding costs may gradually disappear [1][7][11] - It estimates that the total amount of fixed-term deposits maturing in the second half of this year will be approximately 59.52 trillion yuan, with expected declines in funding costs of about 8.3 basis points this year and 9.8 basis points in 2026 [10][11] - The report suggests that the repricing of high-interest deposits could alleviate the pressure of yield inversion, thereby enhancing banks' willingness to invest in bonds [11][12] Group 2 - The report on the TOC fintech sector indicates that the market is expected to benefit from improved liquidity and risk appetite, with technology and traffic remaining core competitive drivers [3][24] - It notes that the total revenue of six major TOC financial information service companies reached 12.182 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 47% [25] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and platform advantages, such as Dongfang Caifu and Xiangcai Co., which are expected to gain market share [26] Group 3 - The report on Youjia Innovation forecasts revenue growth from 1 billion yuan in 2025 to 2.16 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 53% [4][28] - It emphasizes the company's strategic partnerships with major automotive manufacturers, which are expected to accelerate project delivery and enhance market presence [29] - The report highlights the potential of the L4 autonomous minibus business as a significant growth driver for the company [29] Group 4 - The report on the energy sector indicates that China Power Construction has signed 3,579 energy and power projects with a total contract value of 516.24 billion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [51] - It notes that the company's overseas business has also seen rapid growth, with new contracts amounting to 179.841 billion yuan, up 21.9% year-on-year [52] - The report projects that the company will achieve a net profit of 12.301 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 2.4% [53] Group 5 - The report on Sanxia Energy highlights that the company has a cumulative installed capacity of 49.9366 million kilowatts, with wind power accounting for 22.9702 million kilowatts, representing a market share of 4.01% [55] - It indicates that the company's solar power business has also shown strong growth, with a cumulative installed capacity of 25.9055 million kilowatts [56] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the company, projecting a net profit of 6.125 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a slight increase [57] Group 6 - The report on Miniso indicates that the company's domestic revenue grew by 11.4% in the first half of 2025, with a focus on optimizing store quality rather than quantity [58] - It highlights the strategic shift towards self-owned IP development, which is expected to enhance brand value and customer loyalty [58] - The report anticipates that the company's self-owned IP will contribute significantly to future revenue growth, targeting a GMV of 1 billion yuan for the year [58]

招股书显示，瑞立科密成立于2001年，公司通过研发团队20余年持续的努力，成功开发出具有完全自主 知识产权的机动车主动安全系统，并实现了电子控制单元(ECU)、执行器和传感器等核心电控制动部件 的自主技术开发及核心工艺的自主生产。截至2024年年末，公司已取得授权专利459项，其中发明专利 58项，以及计算机软件著作权93项，具备22项与公司主营业务和产品密切相关的核心技术。公司研发费 用持续投入，2022年-2024年，研发费用从9372.91万元增至1.16亿元，研发人员占比超15%。 中证报中证网讯(王珞)9月30日，瑞立科密（001285）在深交所挂牌上市。此次IPO，公司拟募资15.22 亿元，用于大湾区汽车智能电控系统研发智造总部、研发中心建设项目、信息化建设项目和补充流动资 金。发行结果显示，此次发行总量为4504.4546万股，发行价为42.28元，募集资金总额达19.04亿元，扣 除发行费用后募集资金净额17.56亿元，较原计划超募2.34亿元。 业绩持续增长龙头地位稳固 公开资料显示，瑞立科密是一家专业从事机动车主动安全系统相关核心部件研发、生产和销售的国家高 新技术企业，主营业务为机动车 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the progress of various provinces in China in leveraging data as a valuable resource to enhance economic development and public services, highlighting initiatives in Hebei, Shandong, and Chongqing [1][3][6]. Group 1: Data Utilization in Industries - Hebei is advancing the construction of a large model for the steel industry, collaborating with 21 local steel enterprises to manage 1854TB of data and develop 293 high-quality datasets for applications such as personnel safety monitoring and waste steel quality inspection [1][6]. - Shandong has gathered over 50PB of high-quality marine data, accounting for 25% of the national total, and has established a marine big data trading service platform to enhance applications in marine fisheries and disaster prevention [7][8]. - Chongqing is focusing on the automotive industry, creating a trusted data space for the sector and developing high-quality datasets to support the digital transformation of the automotive industry, with a notable statistic that one in ten new energy vehicles in China is produced in Chongqing [8]. Group 2: Public Services and Data Accessibility - The "Yukuaiban" platform in Chongqing manages over 2900 government service items, achieving an 85% rate of online service completion, significantly reducing the time and effort required for citizens to access essential services [4][6]. - Jiangsu has established a unified data trading platform that has listed 3933 data products and attracted 1864 data vendors and third-party service providers, aiming to enhance the economic and social development through data utilization [3][11]. - Guangdong's "One Network Sharing" platform has served 2342 departments and opened over 27 billion public data records, providing robust data support for efficient public service delivery [3][11]. Group 3: Policy and Financial Support - The "Data Element x" competition has attracted over 22,000 teams, with 900 projects entering the finals, serving as a connector for data supply and demand across various regions [10][11]. - Financial incentives for data initiatives are significant, with Jiangsu offering over 2.3 million yuan in total rewards for the competition, while Shandong has allocated 1.05 billion yuan for data industry funding, including 35 million yuan specifically for the "Data Element x" initiative [11][12]. - Several provinces, including Guangdong and Shandong, are accelerating the formulation of provincial data regulations to support the development of data-driven industries [11][12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the release of the "Automobile Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments, aiming for automobile sales of approximately 32.3 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of about 3% [1] - The plan emphasizes expanding domestic consumption as a key strategy, with initiatives including the promotion of over 700,000 new energy buses and logistics vehicles in 25 pilot cities for electric vehicles, and the implementation of tax reductions for new energy vehicle purchases [3] - The plan also supports the replacement of old vehicles with new ones, encourages the expansion of the aftermarket, and suggests optimizing purchase restrictions in regions with such policies [3] Group 2 - The plan positions intelligent development at its core, focusing on the industrial application of intelligent connected technology and the construction of networked infrastructure and cloud control platforms [5] - It encourages the production approval of L3 level vehicles, which are conditionally automated driving cars, and aims to improve safety and insurance regulations [5] - The article mentions a new grading system for intelligent driving capabilities introduced by the China Automotive Engineering Research Institute, which categorizes intelligent driving into three levels based on technological maturity [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 162.86 CNY, based on a comparable company PE average valuation of 34 times for 2025 [2][5]. Core Views - The company's profitability is expected to achieve high growth driven by its intelligent driving business and overseas market expansion. The EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 4.79, 5.94, and 7.38 CNY respectively, up from previous estimates [2][4]. - The company is experiencing strong revenue growth, with a projected revenue increase from 21,908 million CNY in 2023 to 49,526 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19.5% [4][9]. - The intelligent driving business is expected to grow significantly, with a revenue increase of 55.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, supported by new product launches and AI technology integration [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million CNY): - 2023: 21,908 - 2024: 27,618 (26.1% YoY growth) - 2025: 34,149 (23.6% YoY growth) - 2026: 41,452 (21.4% YoY growth) - 2027: 49,526 (19.5% YoY growth) [4][10] - Net Profit (in million CNY): - 2023: 1,547 - 2024: 2,005 (29.6% YoY growth) - 2025: 2,657 (32.5% YoY growth) - 2026: 3,298 (24.1% YoY growth) - 2027: 4,096 (24.2% YoY growth) [4][10] - Gross Margin: - 2023: 20.0% - 2024: 19.9% - 2025: 20.2% - 2026: 20.5% - 2027: 20.7% [4][10] - Net Margin: - 2023: 7.1% - 2024: 7.3% - 2025: 7.8% - 2026: 8.0% - 2027: 8.3% [4][10] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2023: 21.4% - 2024: 22.8% - 2025: 25.0% - 2026: 25.5% - 2027: 25.6% [4][10]

Group 1 - The stock price of Junsheng Electronics (600699) has increased by 9.7% over the past week, attributed to developments in humanoid robots, automotive electronics, and growth in the first quarter report [1] - The company has fully entered the humanoid robot sector and plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary, Ningbo Junsheng Embodied Intelligent Robot Co., Ltd., by April 2025 [1] - Junsheng Electronics has made progress in its Robotaxi business, with products applicable to autonomous taxis, including safety airbags, seat belts, steering wheels, and various automotive electronic products [1] Group 2 - Over the past three years, the company has distributed approximately 860 million RMB in dividends and conducted share buybacks totaling around 420 million RMB [2] - The company has completed its loan buyback plan disclosed for November 2024, repurchasing 13.03 million shares for approximately 222 million RMB, with the repurchased shares being canceled [2] - Junsheng Electronics emphasizes shareholder returns through performance improvement and a dual approach of cash dividends and share buybacks, enhancing investor satisfaction [2] Group 3 - The company acknowledges the national policy on anti-involution, which aims to systematically address low-price competition and guide the industry towards value competition, enhancing overall profitability and promoting high-quality, innovation-driven transformation [2]