盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 调整收入、毛利率及费用率等，预测 2025-2027 年 EPS 为 4.79、5.94、7.38 元 （原为 4.43、5.43、6.67 元），维持可比公司 2025 年 PE 平均估值 34 倍，目标价 162.86 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 乘用车行业销量低于预期、智能座舱产品业务收入低于预期、智能驾驶产品业务收入低 于预期。 智驾业务及海外市场共同促进盈利实现较 高增长 核心观点 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 21,908 | 27,618 | 34,149 | 41,452 | 49,526 | | 同比增长 (%) | 46.7% | 26.1% | 23.6% | 21.4% | 19.5% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,537 | 2,099 | 2,799 | 3,474 | 4,314 | | 同比增长 (%) | 32.7% | 36.6% | 33.4% | 24.1% | ...

Group 1 - The stock price of Junsheng Electronics (600699) has increased by 9.7% over the past week, attributed to developments in humanoid robots, automotive electronics, and growth in the first quarter report [1] - The company has fully entered the humanoid robot sector and plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary, Ningbo Junsheng Embodied Intelligent Robot Co., Ltd., by April 2025 [1] - Junsheng Electronics has made progress in its Robotaxi business, with products applicable to autonomous taxis, including safety airbags, seat belts, steering wheels, and various automotive electronic products [1] Group 2 - Over the past three years, the company has distributed approximately 860 million RMB in dividends and conducted share buybacks totaling around 420 million RMB [2] - The company has completed its loan buyback plan disclosed for November 2024, repurchasing 13.03 million shares for approximately 222 million RMB, with the repurchased shares being canceled [2] - Junsheng Electronics emphasizes shareholder returns through performance improvement and a dual approach of cash dividends and share buybacks, enhancing investor satisfaction [2] Group 3 - The company acknowledges the national policy on anti-involution, which aims to systematically address low-price competition and guide the industry towards value competition, enhancing overall profitability and promoting high-quality, innovation-driven transformation [2]

Group 1: Satellite Chemical - The company achieved operating revenue of 23.46 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.93% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.744 billion yuan, up 33.44% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 11.69% [3][5] - The functional chemicals segment saw revenue of 12.217 billion yuan, a 32.12% increase year-on-year, while the high polymer new materials segment experienced a revenue decline of 4.43% [5][6] - The α-olefin comprehensive utilization project is progressing well, expected to support long-term growth with a total investment of approximately 26.6 billion yuan [9][10] Group 2: Desay SV - The company reported H1 2025 revenue of 14.644 billion yuan, a 25.25% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.223 billion yuan, up 45.82% [12][14] - The overseas sales reached 1.038 billion yuan, reflecting a strong growth momentum in international markets [15] - The company is focusing on AI technology investments to enhance smart product development and applications [16] Group 3: Offshore Wind Power Industry - European offshore wind power demand is expected to quadruple, driven by net-zero emissions and energy independence goals [18][19] - The annual average new offshore wind installation in Europe is projected to reach over 12 GW from 2025 to 2034, significantly higher than previous years [19][20] - The supply chain bottlenecks in Europe highlight the complementary advantages of Chinese manufacturers in offshore wind equipment [21][22] Group 4: Guoguang Co. - The company achieved operating revenue of 1.119 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.33%, with a net profit of 231 million yuan, up 6.05% [24][25] - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 81%, emphasizing shareholder returns [26] - Ongoing projects funded by convertible bonds are expected to enhance core competitiveness [27] Group 5: Xindong Company - The company anticipates H1 2025 revenue of at least 3.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 37%, with net profit expected to rise by 215% [29][30] - The self-developed game "Heart Town" has performed strongly, contributing significantly to revenue growth [30][31] - The TapTap platform has shown steady growth, with total downloads increasing by 16% [31][32] Group 6: Animal Health Industry - The domestic animal health industry has seen a slowdown in growth, with sales increasing from 50.395 billion yuan in 2019 to 69.651 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 8.43% [37][38] - The market for pet pharmaceuticals is expected to grow significantly, driven by increasing consumer awareness of pet health [40] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards innovation and technology-driven growth, with a focus on new product development [39][40]

民生证券研报指出，德赛西威25Q2盈利高增，国际化战略持续深化。公司核心业务板块增长强劲，不 断推动产品技术革新。深化国际化战略构建生态协同。2025H1公司境外销售收入达10.38亿元，同比增 长36.82%。2025年5月，公司在印尼地区开始贡献产能；2025年6月，墨西哥蒙特雷工厂首个量产项目 诞生，为美洲市场提供了更高效的本地化服务保障；西班牙智能工厂预计将于2026年开始量产，为欧洲 地区提供智能座舱、辅助驾驶领域的系列前沿智能化产品。智能座舱产品受益大屏多屏趋势及新客户拓 展，智能驾驶产品覆盖L2、L3及以上级别，看好智能变革机遇下公司长期成长。维持"推荐"评级。 ...

Group 1 - The AI industry chain has experienced a significant surge, with the AI ETF (515070) rising over 1.5% during trading, and key holdings such as Xiechuang Data, Cambricon, Desay SV, Shenzhou Taiyue, and New Yisheng also seeing substantial gains [1] - The optical communication sector has strengthened again, with the ChiNext AI ETF (159831) increasing by more than 1.7%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation AI ETF (589010) also showing a rapid rise of nearly 1% [1] - Desay SV reported its mid-year results, with total operating revenue of 14.644 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.223 billion, alongside a net cash inflow from operating activities of 1.638 billion [1] Group 2 - Minsheng Securities believes that Desay SV's smart cockpit products will benefit from the trend of large and multiple screens, as well as new customer expansion, while its smart driving products cover L2, L3, and above levels, indicating long-term growth potential under the smart transformation opportunities [1] - CITIC Securities released a report on the computer industry, suggesting to seize the new round of innovation landing cycle by 2025, with AI as the main line of innovation continuing to drive the acceleration of the industry chain's growth [1] - The focus is on the "AI main line," with optimism regarding opportunities in AI applications and computing power sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) emphasizes the integration of AI technology with various applications, highlighting the potential for significant advancements in the AI+terminal sector over the next three years [2][6]. Group 1: AI+Terminal Trends - The next three years are expected to be pivotal for the AI+terminal sector, particularly in the automotive and mobile phone industries, with significant advancements anticipated in human-machine interaction and application integration [6][8]. - The automotive industry is entering a critical phase, marking the tenth year of smart driving in China, with expectations of substantial changes in technology and product offerings [7][8]. Group 2: Model Evolution - Models are identified as the driving force behind the evolution of the AI industry, with a clear progression in learning paradigms from imitation learning to reinforcement learning and eventually to autonomous learning [9][11]. - The current state of multi-modal models in China is approximately six months behind that of the U.S., although the gap in computational power is widening, indicating a divergence in technological advancement [14][15]. Group 3: Business Model Insights - A sustainable business model must be closed-loop to effectively drive technological progress, emphasizing the importance of integrating technology, product, and commercialization from the outset [16][19]. - Companies focusing on foundational large models must justify significant investments in computational resources, as the long-term profitability of such models is critical for business viability [19]. Group 4: Hardware Opportunities - There are substantial opportunities in hardware beyond just vehicles and smartphones, with a focus on delivering comprehensive AI services through innovative hardware solutions [20][22]. - The future of AI services and operating systems is expected to undergo significant changes, with a shift towards human-machine collaboration and the emergence of new hardware forms driven by AI agents [24][25].

进入2025年以来，以比亚迪为代表的多家车企推出了智驾平权的产品和计划。"这些车企背后几乎 都有地平线的身影，我们甚至是其中几个车企的最大供应商。"余凯自信地说。 然而，由于众所周知的原因，智能驾驶宣传被戴上了"紧箍咒"。"有一定规范对行业健康发展只会 更有利，长远来看能加快智能驾驶技术的健康稳定发展，最终发展速度反而会更快。"余凯举例道，就 像高速列车时速比汽车更快，就是因为有铁轨的规范。 "我在行业中属于相对冷静派，但也认为未来两三年自动驾驶发展会迎来拐点，飞入寻常百姓家一 定会一步步成为现实。"地平线创始人兼董事长余凯，在2025中国汽车重庆论坛上表示，今年大家开始 解决的问题是有没有智能驾驶，马上就会解决到底好不好用，市场一定会朝着为用户创造价值的方向发 展。 在余凯看来，目前很多车型宣传配置了智能驾驶功能，但对消费者而言并没有深入人心，还"欠一 点火候"。"随着人工智能技术近几年的十倍速变化，结合地平线的亲身经历，可以推测自动驾驶领域拐 点正在发生。" 谈及智能驾驶出海，余凯表示，这是白与黑的问题，不存在灰度空间，唯一应该做的就是严格遵守 当地法规。"中国厂商去做这件事，可能会有各种各样的困难，所以 ...

Group 1: Company Strategy and Market Position - The company aims to strengthen customer cooperation and expand high-quality domestic and international customer resources to enhance market share [2][3] - Focus on cost control through a low-cost strategy and improving operational quality across the entire value chain [2][3] - Emphasis on R&D in "lightweight, electrification, intelligence, and connectivity" to accelerate product transformation and upgrade [2][3] Group 2: Financial Performance and Management - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of CNY 3.627 billion, a decrease of 3.64% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 0.26% to CNY 163 million [11] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 16.468 billion, a growth of 3.95%, with net profit rising by 11.93% to CNY 676 million [12][13] - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 961.69% in 2024, attributed to improved cash management practices [14] Group 3: R&D and Product Development - The company plans to increase R&D investment in 2025, focusing on core technologies such as chassis systems and electric systems [15] - The company has successfully developed electric control shock absorbers, leading to significant revenue growth and market share in this segment [6][9] Group 4: Market Expansion and Order Growth - In 2024, the company secured 307 new orders, with external market orders accounting for 48% of total revenue, and over 80% of new energy orders [8] - The company’s strategy includes differentiated market expansion tactics tailored to various customer groups to achieve significant order growth [8] Group 5: Industry Trends and Challenges - The automotive parts industry is rapidly transforming towards electrification, intelligence, connectivity, and low-carbon solutions, requiring stronger R&D capabilities [9][10] - The company aims to adapt to these changes by enhancing its core competencies and maintaining a flexible operational strategy [10]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.792 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.26% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 582 million CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 51.32% [2] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 497 million CNY, reflecting a growth of 34.08% [2] Group 2: Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company's smart cockpit business is expected to reach an annual revenue of 18.230 billion CNY in 2024, with new project orders generating an annualized sales amount exceeding 16 billion CNY [3] - The integration of smart driving and smart cockpit technologies is anticipated to enhance vehicle efficiency, optimize costs, and improve user experience [3] - The company has established a leading position in both smart cockpit and smart driving sectors, which will enhance its competitive edge through cross-domain integration [3] Group 3: International Expansion - In 2024, the company's overseas orders are projected to exceed 5 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 120% [3] - The company has secured project orders from renowned international automotive brands such as TATA MOTORS, VOLKSWAGEN, and TOYOTA [3] - The German factory is operational, while the Spanish factory is under construction, expected to be completed by the end of 2025, starting to supply smart cockpit and smart driving products [3]