期货研究报告 | 金融工程研究 本周宽基指数普升，可增仓复制指数T和不 依赖小微盘的交易型Alpha策略 （ 2025年12月22日-2025年12月26日） ——招期金工股票策略环境监控周报 ·研究员-卢星 ·联系电话：13120557519 ·luxing1@cmschina.com.cn ·执业资格号: Z0022829 2025年12月28日 contents 权益市场回顾 01 目录 策略环境监控 02 03 未来策略研判 2 核心观点 | | | 从宽基指数来看，截至2025-12-26，本周中证500指数上涨4.03%，中证1000指数上涨3.76%，中证2000指数上 涨3.06%，中证全指指数上涨2.78%，中证A500上涨2.75%，沪深300指数上涨1.95%，中证红利上涨0.55%。从 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | Barra风格因子来看，截止2025-12-26，本周收益最好的3个风格因子为BETA, 中盘, 动量，分别为1.16%, 0.60%, | | | | 0.58%；表现最差的3个风格因子为杠杆, 价值, 盈利，分别为0.03%, -0.11%。从 ...

在金融业务方面，《办法》明确，违反规定开展信托、租赁、保理等金融业务和基金业务，服务主业不 力，脱实向虚；违反规定开展期货、期权等金融衍生业务；吸收客户资金不入账，非法吸收公众存款或 变相吸收公众存款，违反规定参与或变相参与民间借贷等六类行为将被追责。 此外，下述违规行为也将被追责。在科技创新方面，通过设立空壳公司、套牌贴牌等形式骗补骗扶。在 产权管理方面，违反规定代持股权、虚假控股、控股不控权、虚假合资、挂靠经营等。在股权投资方 面，投资并购后未按有关工作方案开展整合，致使对标的企业管理失控；偏离核定主责主业和战略规划 投资，以大额负债形式形成主业无关资产。 国务院国资委日前对外发布《中央企业违规经营投资责任追究实施办法》（国务院国资委令第46号，以 下简称《办法》）。《办法》明确央企经营管理有关人员违反规定，未履行或未正确履行职责造成国有 资产损失或其他不良后果，应当追究相应责任的具体情形，包括集团管控等13个方面98种责任追究情 形。 2018年，国务院国资委印发了《中央企业违规经营投资责任追究实施办法（试行）》，为规范央企违规 经营投资责任追究工作发挥了重要作用。 国务院国资委监督追责局相关负责人表示 ...

为建立长效激励约束机制、强化国有企业经营投资责任追究，国务院国资委日前对外发布《中央企业违 规经营投资责任追究实施办法》（国务院国资委令第46号，下称《办法》），自2026年1月1日起施行。 《办法》明确了中央企业经营管理有关人员违反规定，未履行或未正确履行职责造成国有资产损失或其 他不良后果，应当追究相应责任的具体情形，包括金融业务、科技创新、固定资产投资、股权投资等13 个方面98种责任追究情形。 早在2018年，国务院国资委印发了《中央企业违规经营投资责任追究实施办法（试行）》（国务院国资 委令第37号），为规范中央企业违规经营投资责任追究工作发挥了重要作用。 在金融业务方面，《办法》明确，违反规定开展信托、租赁、保理等金融业务和基金业务，服务主业不 力，脱实向虚；违反规定开展期货、期权等金融衍生业务；吸收客户资金不入账，非法吸收公众存款或 变相吸收公众存款，违反规定参与或变相参与民间借贷等六类行为将被追责。 下一步，国资委将持续推进责任追究工作规范化精准化法治化，形成覆盖全面、职责明确、流程清晰、 规范有序的责任追究工作机制，提升综合效能，形成"有权必有责、有责要担当、失责必追究"的氛围， 通过精准追 ...

Core Insights - The total market capitalization of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) reached HKD 48.1 trillion by the end of October 2025, representing a 37% increase compared to HKD 35.2 trillion in the same period last year [1] - The average daily trading volume for October 2025 was HKD 2,749 billion, an 8% increase from HKD 2,550 billion in October 2024 [1] - The average daily trading volume for the first ten months of 2025 was HKD 2,582 billion, a significant 102% increase from HKD 1,278 billion in the same period last year [2] Trading Activity - The average daily trading volume for derivative warrants in the first ten months of 2025 was HKD 80 billion, up 60% from HKD 50 billion in the previous year [2] - The average daily trading volume for bull and bear certificates was HKD 104 billion, a 60% increase from HKD 65 billion year-on-year [2] - The average daily trading volume for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) was HKD 343 billion, reflecting a 127% increase from HKD 151 billion in the same period last year [2] New Listings and Fundraising - There were 81 new listings in the first ten months of 2025, a 50% increase compared to 54 new listings in the same period last year [2] - The total amount raised through initial public offerings (IPOs) was HKD 2,160 billion, a remarkable 209% increase from HKD 700 billion year-on-year [2] - The total fundraising amount for the first ten months of 2025 reached HKD 5,070 billion, up 228% from HKD 1,548 billion in the previous year [3] Derivative Market Performance - The average daily trading volume for futures and options in the first ten months of 2025 was 1,696,752 contracts, a 7% increase from 1,582,570 contracts in the same period last year [4] - The average daily trading volume for stock index futures was 568,701 contracts [5] - The average daily trading volume for stock options was 896,891 contracts, up 22% from 733,117 contracts year-on-year [6] Historical Records - On October 2, 2025, the weekly trading volume for stock options reached a historical high of 312,545 contracts [7] - On October 27, 2025, the trading volume for Hang Seng Tech Index futures options hit a record high of 64,982 contracts [8]

Quantitative Factors and Models Summary Quantitative Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: BETA **Construction Idea**: Measures the sensitivity of a stock's returns to market returns, capturing systematic risk exposure [13][28] **Construction Process**: The BETA factor is calculated as the slope coefficient in a regression of a stock's returns against the market index returns over a specified period [13][28] **Evaluation**: This factor performed well during the week, indicating a positive contribution to portfolio returns [13][28] - **Factor Name**: Residual Volatility **Construction Idea**: Captures the idiosyncratic risk of a stock, independent of market movements [13][28] **Construction Process**: Residual volatility is derived from the standard deviation of the residuals in a regression of stock returns against market returns [13][28] **Evaluation**: This factor showed moderate positive performance during the week [13][28] - **Factor Name**: Momentum **Construction Idea**: Reflects the tendency of stocks with strong past performance to continue performing well in the short term [13][28] **Construction Process**: Momentum is calculated as the cumulative return of a stock over a specific look-back period, excluding the most recent month [13][28] **Evaluation**: This factor exhibited slight positive performance during the week [13][28] - **Factor Name**: Value **Construction Idea**: Measures the attractiveness of a stock based on its valuation metrics, such as price-to-earnings or price-to-book ratios [13][28] **Construction Process**: Value is computed using a weighted combination of valuation ratios, normalized across the universe of stocks [13][28] **Evaluation**: This factor underperformed during the week, indicating a negative contribution to portfolio returns [13][28] - **Factor Name**: Leverage **Construction Idea**: Represents the financial risk of a company based on its debt levels relative to equity [13][28] **Construction Process**: Leverage is calculated as the ratio of total debt to total equity for each stock [13][28] **Evaluation**: This factor showed slight negative performance during the week [13][28] - **Factor Name**: Size **Construction Idea**: Captures the performance difference between small-cap and large-cap stocks [13][28] **Construction Process**: Size is measured as the natural logarithm of a company's market capitalization [13][28] **Evaluation**: This factor significantly underperformed during the week, reflecting a preference for larger-cap stocks [13][28] Factor Backtesting Results - **BETA Factor**: Weekly return +0.27%, 1-year Sharpe ratio 2.74, 1-year maximum drawdown 5.40% [13][29] - **Residual Volatility Factor**: Weekly return +0.12%, 1-year Sharpe ratio -3.22, 1-year maximum drawdown 11.67% [13][29] - **Momentum Factor**: Weekly return +0.05%, 1-year Sharpe ratio 2.96, 1-year maximum drawdown 2.47% [13][29] - **Value Factor**: Weekly return -0.25%, 1-year Sharpe ratio -0.18, 1-year maximum drawdown 3.31% [13][29] - **Leverage Factor**: Weekly return -0.28%, 1-year Sharpe ratio 2.96, 1-year maximum drawdown 1.55% [13][29] - **Size Factor**: Weekly return -0.47%, 1-year Sharpe ratio -5.82, 1-year maximum drawdown 17.33% [13][29]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Shanghai Offshore Economic Function Zone is a strategic move in response to the profound adjustments in the global financial landscape, aiming to enhance Shanghai's international financial center capabilities and facilitate the internationalization of the Renminbi from "trade settlement" to "reserve currency" [1] Institutional Innovation - The core competitiveness of the Shanghai Offshore Economic Function Zone lies in a regulatory framework that aligns with international practices while incorporating Chinese characteristics, emphasizing "transparent rules + precise regulation" [2] - The zone will implement a "boundary management" approach, allowing foreign capital to flow freely while ensuring that offshore activities do not disrupt the onshore financial system [2] Business Environment Innovation - The average approval time for foreign financial institutions to set up offshore business departments in China is currently 187 days, significantly longer than the 4-week standard in Dubai. The zone aims to reduce this to 30 days through a "commitment system + full-process supervision" [3] - The zone will promote a "multi-currency fund pool + blockchain clearing" model to enhance cross-border settlement efficiency, targeting a significant increase in corporate fund turnover rates by 2025 [3] Tax Policy Design - The zone will adopt a "low tax + strong regulation" policy, proposing a 5% capital gains tax and zero VAT for offshore financial activities, while implementing strict anti-tax avoidance measures [4] - A "tax neutrality + anti-avoidance" mechanism will be established to prevent tax arbitrage and ensure compliance in offshore operations [4] Legal and Regulatory Coordination - A "special legal application zone" will be created to allow international commercial contracts to choose applicable laws, enhancing the legal framework for offshore operations [5][6] - A joint regulatory meeting involving the central bank, foreign exchange bureau, and financial regulatory authorities will oversee offshore financial activities, promoting innovation while managing risks [6] Business Ecosystem - The zone will focus on providing comprehensive services for cross-border trade and investment, particularly for countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [7] - The offshore bond market will be a key focus, with targets set for issuance and financing for infrastructure projects by 2026 [8] Internal and External Coordination - The zone will establish a network linking itself with Hong Kong and global nodes, facilitating risk isolation and collaborative value release [12] - A "Shanghai-Hong Kong offshore financial express" mechanism will be implemented to allow for the flow of funds based on real trade backgrounds [13] Risk Prevention - A "prevention-monitoring-disposal" risk control system will be established to mitigate concerns about risk spillover [16] - The zone will implement strict account management to ensure complete separation between offshore and onshore accounts, with rigorous transaction verification processes [17] Ecological Support - The zone will develop a talent system to attract and cultivate international financial professionals, aiming to increase the proportion of foreign talent by 2025 [21] - High-level infrastructure will be enhanced to improve global competitiveness, including the establishment of a global offshore financial data port [22]