复盘燃油豪华车：追求溢价的市场，具备品牌溢价、设计溢价、技术溢价三大属性。 回顾传统燃油豪华车（高端车），我们认为，豪华车是追求溢价的市场，其核心溢价在在于品牌溢价、设计溢价、技术 溢价三种：1）品牌溢价：豪华车品牌所带来的品牌力上的溢价，并由此在国内将燃油豪华车拆解为一线豪华、二线豪 华和其他豪华品牌，在豪华车溢价体系中，品牌溢价最为重要；2）设计溢价，包括燃油车的产品精细化打造水平和车 辆自身稀缺性，精细化打造即我们常说的"豪华感"，即更好的细节处理、更少的槽点和更优秀的产品体验；稀缺性则 来自个性化和功能的稀缺性上，要求极致的堆料和对个性化的充份体现，并由此诞生了巴博斯、迈莎锐等豪车改装厂， 法拉利、布加迪等超跑公司；3）技术溢价，来自于燃油车发动机、底盘、变速箱三大件，技术溢价需来自于每辆车的 必备品，同时技术上拥有较高的技术壁垒，如燃油车的发动机，大马力便是燃油车体系内的溢价核心。 新能源时代豪华车竞争的变化：技术属性削弱、部分品牌仍在确立期，核心仍是品牌和设计。 新能源车与燃油车在价值体系上出现巨大差异。这主要来自新能源车时代大马力廉价化，平替发动机、变速箱的电机、 电驱又转为供应链主导，形成如华 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - Despite a 39.7% year-on-year decline in July sales, the company remains optimistic about its adaptability in the pure electric vehicle market [4][7]. - The launch of the new electric SUV i8 has faced challenges, with its configuration strategy being perceived as conservative compared to competitors [7][8]. - The company has a strong error correction capability, which is expected to support its future growth in the pure electric vehicle segment [8]. Financial Summary - Projected revenues for 2023A are 123.85 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 173.5%. However, a decline of 3.5% is expected in 2025E [6]. - Net profit is forecasted to be 11.704 billion in 2023A, with a significant increase of 681.7% year-on-year, but a decrease of 31.4% is anticipated in 2024A [6]. - The gross margin is expected to be 22.2% in 2023A, with a slight decline to 20.5% in 2024A [6]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 162.35 billion in 2024A, with total liabilities of 91.03 billion [10]. - The cash flow from operating activities is expected to be 15.933 billion in 2024A, indicating strong operational cash generation [12]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is facing increased competition in the mid-to-large hybrid SUV market, which may impact the sales of its L series vehicles [7]. - The i8's delivery strategy may affect customer commitment due to a lack of additional cash incentives for early adopters [8]. - The company has established a robust charging network with 3,000 supercharging stations across 31 provinces and 258 cities, positioning it favorably in the pure electric vehicle market [8].

Industry Overview - In June 2025, China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity was approximately 14.4GW, a year-on-year decrease of 38.4% [2] - Cumulative newly installed photovoltaic capacity from January to June 2025 reached about 212.2GW, representing a year-on-year growth of 107.1% [2] - The decline in June's installation was attributed to the uncertainty in project profitability following the new pricing mechanism introduced in February 2025 [2] - Despite the June decline, the overall annual growth in photovoltaic installations is expected to remain robust, supported by new technologies and a recovery in upstream equipment demand [2] Mechanical Industry - In the first half of 2025, China's industrial enterprises saw a revenue growth of 2.5% year-on-year, with manufacturing revenue growing by 3.5% [4] - Industrial profits decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in previous months, indicating a gradual policy effect [4] - The manufacturing sector's profit growth was 4.5% year-on-year, suggesting potential for continued recovery in equipment demand as policies take effect [4] Investment Recommendations - The mechanical industry is rated as "buy," with a focus on photovoltaic processing equipment and general equipment sectors benefiting from manufacturing recovery [5] - Companies to watch include Jing Sheng Mechanical and Aotai Wei in the photovoltaic sector, and Haomai Technology in the general equipment sector [5] Banking Sector - By the end of Q2 2025, the total balance of RMB loans from financial institutions reached 268.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [7] - Corporate loans were the main driver of credit growth, with a balance of 182.47 trillion yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year [7] - The growth in loans for small and micro enterprises and the real estate sector showed signs of recovery, indicating a stable credit environment [8] Investment Recommendations for Banking - The banking sector is rated as "overweight," with recommendations to focus on high-dividend and regionally growing banks, including major state-owned banks and select regional banks [9] Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage industry saw a slight increase of 0.74% from July 21 to July 25, 2025, underperforming compared to broader market indices [19] - White liquor exports surged, with a 30.9% increase in export value in the first half of 2025, indicating strong international demand [20] - The industry is adapting to changing consumer behaviors, with a focus on instant retail channels and digital integration [21] Investment Recommendations for Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector is rated as "buy," with a focus on stable demand leaders and companies innovating in new products and channels [22] Real Estate Sector - Recent policy changes in Chengdu aim to stimulate the real estate market by optimizing loan policies and reducing restrictions on property sales [24][25] - New housing transaction volumes are under pressure, with significant declines in both new and second-hand home sales reported [26][27] - The outlook for the real estate market remains cautious, with expectations for further policy support to stabilize demand [28] Investment Recommendations for Real Estate - The real estate sector is rated as "buy," with a focus on leading developers with strong land acquisition capabilities and active real estate agencies [28] Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical sector saw a 1.9% increase in market performance, with significant gains in drug manufacturing and raw materials [29][30] - Recent policy optimizations in drug procurement are expected to improve competitive dynamics in the market [30] - The industry is entering a new growth cycle driven by innovation and improved market conditions [31] Investment Recommendations for Pharmaceuticals - The pharmaceutical sector is rated as "buy," with a focus on innovative drug companies and those benefiting from policy improvements in generic and raw material drugs [32]

Summary of Li Auto Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Li Auto - **Industry**: Electric Vehicles (EVs) Key Points and Arguments 1. **Product Launch and Features**: - The Li Auto I6 is positioned as a five-seat mid-to-large pure electric SUV, featuring an 800V architecture and a 5C lithium iron phosphate battery, allowing for a 500 km range with just 10 minutes of charging. It offers both rear-wheel and all-wheel drive versions, enhancing its competitiveness in space, power, and charging efficiency [2][4][5]. 2. **Charging Infrastructure**: - As of June 2025, Li Auto has built over 2,500 supercharging stations, with plans to reach 4,000 by the end of the year. This expansion significantly improves the competitiveness of its pure electric products and addresses early EV charging inconveniences, solidifying its market position and potentially boosting sales [2][6][9]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: - The market's attitude towards high-end pure electric vehicles is shifting, with increasing demand expected as consumers transition from hybrid to pure electric models. Li Auto's I series products, priced between 300,000 to 400,000 yuan, are anticipated to have a competitive edge in this segment [2][18]. 4. **Sales Expectations**: - Li Auto anticipates that the I8 model will achieve monthly sales of at least 5,000 units, while the overall pure electric series could exceed 20,000 units monthly. By 2026, following a major upgrade of range-extended products, monthly sales could reach 70,000 units, translating to an annual profit of 20 billion yuan and a market capitalization of 400-500 billion yuan [4][21]. 5. **Investment Logic**: - The investment rationale for Li Auto is based on a two-phase opportunity model: the first phase involves an upward revision of sales expectations due to new models and technological innovations, while the second phase focuses on sustained quarterly performance leading to improved profitability per vehicle. Currently, Li Auto is in the early stages of the first phase, making it a compelling investment opportunity [12][15]. 6. **Competitive Positioning**: - Li Auto is recognized as an industry leader, particularly in the transition from hybrid to pure electric vehicles. The company is positioned to capitalize on the current electric vehicle cycle, demonstrating a strong market presence compared to competitors [20]. 7. **Challenges in the EV Market**: - The electric vehicle market faces challenges such as insufficient charging infrastructure and high battery costs, which have historically hindered sales. However, these issues are gradually being resolved, with Li Auto's rapid expansion of its charging network enhancing its competitive edge [10][11]. 8. **Future Outlook**: - Li Auto's future in the AI sector is promising, with potential for growth as its electric products gain market validation. The company aims to diversify its AI capabilities, which could significantly enhance its overall value [22]. 9. **Investment Timing**: - Current market conditions are viewed as favorable for investing in Li Auto stock, especially with upcoming product launches expected to catalyze positive market sentiment and stock performance [23]. Additional Important Content - **Consumer Preferences**: The shift in consumer preferences towards electric vehicles is evident, with a notable increase in sales from 1 million to approximately 11 million units in the new energy vehicle market from 2018 to 2024, indicating a growing acceptance of electric vehicles [18]. - **Product Differentiation**: The I6 model is designed with family use in mind, offering more interior space compared to competitors, which may attract a broader customer base [7]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding Li Auto's strategic positioning, product offerings, market dynamics, and future growth potential.

证券研究报告 | 2025 年 06 月 17 日 晨会集萃 制作：产品中心 重点推荐 《策略|新一轮以伊冲突下各类资产表现如何？》 1）以伊冲突爆发后，美股短期内恐慌情绪迅速上升，标普 500 指数收跌 1.13%，而 CBOE 波动率指数大幅上涨 15.54%，VIX 指数仍处于历史低位附 近。2）避险需求推动黄金上涨 1.40%，原油价格大幅上涨 8.39%。3）中 国权益市场在地缘冲突表现承压，6/13 沪深 300 和恒生指数分别收跌 0.72%和 0.63%。4）美元指数在两段冲突时期表现不一。2022 年由于美国 进入加息周期，美元指数大幅走强，也取代了黄金、比特币成为了当时优 先级较高的避险资产，而 23Q4 巴以冲突时期，美国加息周期结束，美元 走弱，比特币、黄金则表现强于美元。3、总的来说：1）国际：美国 5 月通胀、核心通胀均低于市场预期，5 月 CPI 同比增长 2.4%，前值 2.3%， 预期 2.5%，核心 CPI 同比 2.8%，前值 2.8%，预期 2.9%。2）国内：通胀增 速保持低位。5 月 CPI 同比跌幅持平，PPI 同比降幅走阔，PPI-CPI 剪刀差 走阔。6 月， ...

Summary of Li Auto's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Li Auto - **Industry**: Automotive, specifically focusing on electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrid models Key Points and Arguments Market Performance - As of April 2025, Li Auto achieved a market share of **14.1%**, maintaining its position as the top-selling Chinese automotive brand for **14 consecutive months** in the **20万元** and above new energy vehicle market [2][3] - Cumulative deliveries exceeded **1.26 million units**, with the Li L series reaching a milestone of **1 million units** delivered by April 2025 [3] Product Development and Launch Plans - Li Auto plans to launch two new pure electric SUV models: **I8** in July 2025 and **I6** in September 2025 [2][4] - The company has introduced the **Mega** and **L series** with upgraded chips and laser radar to enhance driving assistance features [2][4] - The **ALMAC 4G** model, developed in-house, aims to improve the perception and adaptability of the driving assistance system [2][6] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, total revenue reached **259 billion RMB**, with a stable gross margin of approximately **20%** [2][7] - GAAP net profit was **6 billion RMB**, while non-GAAP net profit stood at **10 billion RMB** [2][7] - Cash reserves exceeded **100 billion RMB**, providing a solid foundation for future growth [2][7] Gross Margin and Future Expectations - The gross margin showed a slight increase, influenced by financial information, despite a **3,000 RMB** drop in average selling price (ASP) [8] - The company expects steady growth in gross margin in the upcoming quarters [8] Charging Network Expansion - Li Auto has opened **2,350** supercharging stations with over **12,280** charging piles, aiming for **2,500** stations before the I8 launch and **4,000** by year-end [4][10] Research and Development (R&D) Budget - The R&D budget for 2025 is estimated between **11 billion to 12 billion RMB**, with approximately **4.5 billion RMB** allocated for AI-related research [4][12] - The company emphasizes collaboration with partners to enhance R&D efficiency and share results [19] Sales Strategy in Lower-Tier Cities - Li Auto is expanding its sales network and optimizing store layouts in lower-tier cities to boost sales [13][14] - The company has launched the **Star Plan** to improve service quality and customer satisfaction [13] International Market Strategy - Li Auto's international strategy is a long-term plan, focusing on understanding local user needs and building brand recognition over the next ten years [18] Product Strategy and Market Trends - The company is adapting to trends in the electric vehicle market, particularly in the extended-range electric vehicle segment, which is expected to see increased battery capacity [16] - Li Auto plans to expand its product offerings to include sedans and MPVs based on user demand [17] AI and Talent Management - Li Auto is focusing on AI advancements and talent acquisition in areas like virtual reality management [20] - The company aims to create a platform for personal value realization rather than relying solely on high salaries to retain talent [20] Additional Important Insights - The company is cautious about increasing R&D spending significantly, preferring to collaborate with partners to mitigate risks [19] - Li Auto's strategy includes a balanced approach to product offerings in the **20万元** and above market, with expectations of equal market share between extended-range and pure electric vehicles in the long term [16]

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto has elevated AI to the company's top priority, yet it remains focused on automotive products for now [1][5]. Group 1: Performance Overview - In the first quarter, Li Auto delivered 92,864 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 15.5% [2]. - The automotive sales revenue reached 24.68 billion yuan, up 1.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 650 million yuan, reflecting a 9.4% increase and marking ten consecutive quarters of profitability [2]. - The average selling price of vehicles decreased by 11.9% year-on-year to 266,000 yuan (excluding VAT) due to a significant increase in the sales proportion of the L6 model and pre-launch price promotions [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Challenges - Following the earnings report, Li Auto's stock initially dropped nearly 5% due to concerns over lackluster performance guidance and increased competition, but later rebounded over 4% as management discussed product strategies and competitive advantages [3]. - The company faces significant challenges in successfully launching the i8 and i6 models, with analysts questioning their market competitiveness against rivals like the AITO M8 and Xiaomi YU7 [4]. Group 3: Future Strategies and Product Development - Li Auto plans to evaluate the launch of more affordable sedan and MPV models after achieving over 300 billion yuan in revenue, aiming to expand into other Asian and European markets [4]. - The company has restarted discussions on developing sedans, with the first model likely to belong to the third product line, although pricing and energy forms remain uncertain [5]. - Li Auto's market share in the new energy vehicle segment priced above 200,000 yuan has reached 14.7%, with expectations to double the growth rate of this market segment by 2025 [5].

任天堂 Switch 2 六月上市，将有多种版本，49980 日元起售。 Switch 2 将在 6 月 5 日发售，日本国内专用版售价 49980 日元（约合 2427 元人民币），美版 449.99 美元（约合 3270 元人民币），多语言版 69980 日元（约合 3398 元人民币）。 Switch 2 有一个新按钮，位于右侧 Joy-Con 上，主页按钮正下方，呈方形，标有字母 "C"，今晚任 天堂公布了按钮的功能—— C 代表 GameChat，玩家将可以通过内置麦克风和其他人聊天、屏幕共 享，还可以添加单独摄像头进行直播。 另外， Switch 2 的屏幕也会更大、分辨率更高，7.9 英寸、1080P，支持 120Hz 高刷新率。 一季度港股资本市场融资额是近四年新高。 据伦敦证券交易所集团交易商情数据，今年第一季度香港股票资本市场总体融资额录 167 亿美元， 约合 1299 亿港元，同比上涨超过 13 倍，是 2021 年以来最好表现。另外，古茗、蜜雪冰城接连上 市，也使一季度香港 IPO 融资额达到 182 亿港元，同比上升 287%。15 宗 IPO 中，6 宗融资额超 10 亿港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The report highlights the potential of the company's electric vehicle models and advancements in smart technology, with expectations for significant sales growth in the coming years [2][4]. - The company achieved a Q4 net profit of 3.52 billion RMB, exceeding expectations, despite a slight decline in gross margin [1][4]. Financial Performance - Q4 revenue reached 44.27 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3% [1]. - The gross margin for Q4 was 20.3%, down 3.2 percentage points year-on-year and 1.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company expects Q1 deliveries to be between 88,000 and 93,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.5% to 15.7% [1]. Future Outlook - The company plans to launch new electric models, including the L series and MEGA models in May, and the i8 SUV in July, with further models expected in Q4 [2]. - The company aims to enhance its charging infrastructure, targeting over 2,000 supercharging stations by Q1 2025 and 4,000 by the end of 2025 [2]. Sales and Revenue Projections - Projected sales for 2025-2027 are approximately 600,000, 780,000, and 880,000 vehicles, with total revenues expected to reach 159.9 billion, 202.2 billion, and 238.1 billion RMB respectively [4][5]. - The report anticipates a GAAP net profit of 8.4 billion RMB in 2025, with a non-GAAP net profit of 10.4 billion RMB [4][5]. Market Expansion - The company is optimizing its domestic channels and accelerating overseas expansion, with new retail centers and service centers established in various international markets [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market is experiencing unprecedented competition, with various companies achieving different levels of year-on-year growth in delivery data despite it being a traditionally slow sales season [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - In February, several new energy vehicle manufacturers, including XPeng, Li Auto, and Leap Motor, reported significant delivery numbers, with XPeng leading the new forces in sales [4][5]. - XPeng's P7+ and MONA M03 models contributed nearly 80% of its sales, with the latter expected to be a strong contender in the "smart driving" segment [4]. - Li Auto delivered 26,263 vehicles in February, a 12% month-on-month decrease, while Leap Motor delivered 25,287 vehicles, marking a 285% year-on-year increase [5][6]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Other players like Hongmeng Zhixing, NIO, and Lado are closely following the top three, with Hongmeng Zhixing experiencing a 38.5% month-on-month decline in deliveries [6][7]. - NIO's delivery numbers were 9,143 units, while Lado's were significantly below expectations at 4,049 units, indicating challenges in maintaining competitive sales [7]. Group 3: Future Strategies - Companies are implementing new promotional strategies to boost sales, with Li Auto offering significant discounts and financing options [10][11]. - Upcoming model launches and updates are expected to influence market dynamics, with several companies planning to release new or updated models in the coming months [11].