Core Viewpoint - UBS reviews the sales and product mix of major Chinese automakers, previewing second-quarter profits and comparing them with buyer expectations, suggesting that despite concerns over pricing pressures, corporate earnings should remain stable [1] Group 1: New Energy Vehicle Manufacturers - New energy vehicle manufacturers, including Li Auto, NIO, and Xpeng, have shown a quarter-on-quarter increase in sales and moderate improvement in product mix, with UBS expecting Li Auto's profits to grow quarter-on-quarter and NIO and Xpeng's losses to narrow [2] - NIO and Xpeng aim to achieve breakeven net profit by the fourth quarter, with UBS anticipating improved gross margins as cost controls take effect [2] - Li Auto's reduction in computing power leasing costs is expected to aid in controlling R&D expenses, with UBS believing that sales of new models are more critical than profits for these companies [2] Group 2: Traditional Automakers - UBS notes limited high-quality data on quarterly forecasts for traditional automakers but believes investor concerns about price competition are present, leading to moderate overall expectations [3] - BYD's record-high export volume, accounting for 21% of second-quarter sales, is expected to help achieve a net profit of 8,800 yuan per vehicle [3] - Great Wall Motors' high-end brands, Wei and Tank, contribute to 26% of sales, aiding in profit recovery, while Geely's complex structure complicates profit forecasts, though UBS expects earnings to be close to first-quarter levels [3] Group 3: Stock Impact - Since late May, investor sentiment has cooled due to concerns over price competition and signs of unfair competition, leading UBS to adopt a slightly more positive view on the industry [4] - UBS is optimistic about Li Auto's i8 debut at the end of July, BYD's overseas performance, and Great Wall Motors' high-end strategy, while expressing concerns about Xpeng's G7 performance amid fierce competition [4] Group 4: Li Auto (LI.0) - Li Auto delivered 111,000 vehicles in the second quarter, with the L6 model accounting for 52,000 units, representing a 20% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 5% year-on-year increase [5] - UBS predicts a gross margin of 19.5% for Li Auto in the second quarter, slightly lower than the first quarter due to increased pricing pressure [6] - R&D expenses are estimated at 2.6 billion yuan, with sales and management expenses at 2.9 billion yuan, leading to total operating expenses of 5.5 billion yuan, which is stricter than market consensus [6] Group 5: NIO (NIO.N) - NIO delivered 72,000 vehicles in the second quarter, with the Onvo L60 model accounting for 17,000 units, resulting in a 72% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 26% year-on-year increase [7] - UBS estimates a gross margin of 12.5% for NIO, reflecting operational leverage from increased sales [8] - R&D expenses are projected at 3 billion yuan, with sales and management expenses at 4 billion yuan, leading to total operating expenses of 7 billion yuan, slightly below market consensus [8] Group 6: Xpeng (XPEV.N) - Xpeng delivered 103,000 vehicles in the second quarter, with the Mona M03 model accounting for 39,000 units, resulting in a 10% quarter-on-quarter increase and approximately 200% year-on-year increase [9] - UBS expects a gross margin of 12.0% for Xpeng, benefiting from improved product mix and a 45% quarter-on-quarter increase in export volume [9] - R&D expenses are estimated at 2 billion yuan, with sales and management expenses at 2 billion yuan, leading to total operating expenses of 4 billion yuan, aligning with market consensus [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the automotive industry [4]. Core Insights - The market share of domestic brands in the automotive sector has increased significantly, reaching 70% in April-May 2025, up by 6.1 percentage points year-on-year [7][11]. - Domestic brands have shown stable growth across various price segments, particularly in the high-end market, where they are gaining ground against joint ventures and foreign brands [11]. - The report anticipates that the overall market share of domestic brands will continue to rise, potentially exceeding 70% in 2025, driven by new model launches and competitive pricing strategies [11]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total market value of the automotive industry is approximately 50,730.05 billion, with a circulating market value of 32,553.74 billion [4]. - The industry comprises 232 listed companies [4]. Sales Performance - In the 0-15 million yuan price segment, domestic brands accounted for 79% of sales, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4 percentage points [3]. - In the 10-15 million yuan segment, domestic brands' market share rose by 2.0% to 73%, significantly impacting Japanese and German brands [3]. - The overall sales volume for the automotive industry in the first five months of 2025 reached 3.7 million units, representing a 29% increase year-on-year [3]. Price Segment Analysis - In the 15-20 million yuan segment, domestic brands accelerated their market share growth to 58%, with a notable increase of 5.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The 20-25 million yuan segment saw domestic brands' share rise to 60%, up by 16.5 percentage points year-on-year, driven by new model releases [3]. - In the 30-40 million yuan segment, domestic brands captured 56% of the market, reflecting a 21 percentage point increase year-on-year [9]. Competitive Landscape - BYD leads the market with a 15% share, followed by Chery and Geely with 9% and 8% respectively [16]. - The report highlights that domestic electric vehicles are increasingly dominating sales across various price segments, with several models ranking as bestsellers [11][35]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that domestic brands are expected to continue their upward trajectory in market share, particularly in the mid to high-end segments, as they enhance their product offerings and competitive pricing [11].

Summary of Li Auto Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Li Auto - **Focus**: SUV and MPV market above 200,000 RMB, aiming for sales of 750,000 units with a profit of approximately 15 billion RMB and a P/E ratio of 20, indicating robust growth potential [2][3] Core Industry Insights - **Market Growth**: The market for cars priced above 200,000 RMB is rapidly expanding, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 11% from 2019 to 2024, reaching a scale of 6.8 million units, including imports [2][10] - **SUV Market Dynamics**: The market for SUVs priced above 200,000 RMB is expected to grow to nearly 4 million units by 2024, with market share increasing from 50% in 2019 to 60% in 2024, driven by family travel needs and an increase in families with two or more children [2][11] - **Li Auto's Market Position**: Li Auto holds a 13% market share in the above 200,000 RMB SUV market, ranking first, with a sales ceiling estimated between 750,000 to 1.07 million units, with a neutral estimate of around 1 million units [2][10] Strategic Goals and Innovations - **Long-term Vision**: Li Auto aims to become a leader in consumer electronics akin to Apple or in gaming like Nintendo, focusing on unique creativity and exceptional experiences through investments in AI, autonomous driving technology, and smart voice assistants [2][4][6] - **Technological Investments**: The company is investing in silicon carbide (SiC) supply chain, focusing on packaging and testing, and is actively developing an 800V high-voltage supercharging network, with 2,271 charging stations established by May 2025 [4][25] Competitive Landscape - **Market Challenges**: New energy vehicle brands face challenges in channel and cost control, with consumers increasingly favoring higher-priced, higher-quality models with advanced technology [9] - **Comparison with Competitors**: Li Auto's strategy emphasizes unique creativity and user experience, similar to Apple and Nintendo, with a focus on high-end SUV and MPV segments [6][16] Sales and Market Trends - **Sales Trends**: The above 200,000 RMB market is projected to grow from 3.7 million units in 2019 to 6.14 million units in 2024, with significant contributions from new energy vehicle brands [10] - **MPV Market Stability**: The above 200,000 RMB MPV market is expected to stabilize around 700,000 units by 2024, with growth driven by specific models [12] Future Outlook - **Market Projections**: The total volume of the above 200,000 RMB SUV and MPV market is expected to maintain around 5 million units, with potential slight declines in market share due to new entrants and innovations in electric vehicle technology [14] - **Electric Vehicle Penetration**: The penetration rate of pure electric vehicles is expected to increase, aided by improved charging infrastructure and consumer acceptance [15] Technological Developments - **Battery Technology**: Li Auto has collaborated with CATL to develop the Kirin 5C battery, achieving significant reductions in internal resistance and improvements in low-temperature performance and power capabilities [4][26] - **Smart Driving Innovations**: The company has made advancements in its smart driving platform, achieving significant milestones in autonomous driving capabilities and system upgrades [29][33] Conclusion Li Auto is strategically positioned in the growing SUV and MPV market, leveraging technological innovations and a strong market presence to drive future growth. The company's focus on high-end models and unique user experiences aligns with broader market trends favoring quality and advanced technology.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is expected to enter a new product cycle for pure electric vehicles in the second half of 2025, coinciding with the launch of advanced intelligent driving features [3] - The first pure electric SUV, the Li Auto i8, is set to be released in July, followed by another new model, the i6, in September [3] - The company has established 2,355 supercharging stations as of May 29, with plans to exceed 2,500 by the i8 launch and reach over 4,000 by the end of 2025 [3] - The L series of vehicles will feature significant upgrades, including the new 2025 models equipped with advanced AI and hardware for intelligent driving [3] Financial Forecasts - The company's revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted to 143.64 billion, 223.30 billion, and 236.15 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year change of -0.6%, +55.5%, and +5.8% respectively [4] - The net profit forecasts for the same period have been revised to 8.16 billion, 13.66 billion, and 15.41 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of +1.6%, +67.4%, and +12.8% respectively [4] - Corresponding EPS for 2025 to 2027 is projected at 3.81, 6.38, and 7.20 RMB, with P/E ratios of 27, 16, and 14 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to enter a pure electric product cycle in the second half of 2025, coinciding with the launch of high-level intelligent driving features. The first pure electric SUV, the Li Auto i8, will be launched in July, followed by a new model, the i6, in September. As of May 29, 2025, the company has built 2,355 supercharging stations, with plans to exceed 2,500 by the i8 launch and reach over 4,000 by the end of 2025. The L series of vehicles will feature upgraded configurations and advanced driving capabilities, with the AD Max system utilizing the NVIDIA Thor-U chip and new laser radar technology [3][4]. Financial Forecasts - The company's revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted to 143.64 billion, 223.30 billion, and 236.15 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -0.6%, +55.5%, and +5.8%. The net profit forecasts for the same period have been revised to 8.16 billion, 13.66 billion, and 15.41 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth of +1.6%, +67.4%, and +12.8%. The corresponding EPS for 2025 to 2027 is projected to be 3.81, 6.38, and 7.20 RMB, with P/E ratios of 27, 16, and 14 times [4][12]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 25.93 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 41.4%. The gross margin for Q1 was 20.5%, slightly better than expected, with vehicle sales gross margin at 19.8%. The company reported a net profit of 650 million RMB for the same quarter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.7% but a significant quarter-on-quarter decrease of 81.5% [11].

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto has elevated AI to the company's top priority, yet it remains focused on automotive products for now [1][5]. Group 1: Performance Overview - In the first quarter, Li Auto delivered 92,864 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 15.5% [2]. - The automotive sales revenue reached 24.68 billion yuan, up 1.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 650 million yuan, reflecting a 9.4% increase and marking ten consecutive quarters of profitability [2]. - The average selling price of vehicles decreased by 11.9% year-on-year to 266,000 yuan (excluding VAT) due to a significant increase in the sales proportion of the L6 model and pre-launch price promotions [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Challenges - Following the earnings report, Li Auto's stock initially dropped nearly 5% due to concerns over lackluster performance guidance and increased competition, but later rebounded over 4% as management discussed product strategies and competitive advantages [3]. - The company faces significant challenges in successfully launching the i8 and i6 models, with analysts questioning their market competitiveness against rivals like the AITO M8 and Xiaomi YU7 [4]. Group 3: Future Strategies and Product Development - Li Auto plans to evaluate the launch of more affordable sedan and MPV models after achieving over 300 billion yuan in revenue, aiming to expand into other Asian and European markets [4]. - The company has restarted discussions on developing sedans, with the first model likely to belong to the third product line, although pricing and energy forms remain uncertain [5]. - Li Auto's market share in the new energy vehicle segment priced above 200,000 yuan has reached 14.7%, with expectations to double the growth rate of this market segment by 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - Geely plans to fully acquire Zeekr, aiming for internal resource integration to enhance efficiency during the current market elimination phase [5][15]. - The reduction of the reserve requirement ratio for automotive finance companies from 5% to 0% is expected to stimulate automotive consumption demand [16]. - The collaboration between Pony.ai and Uber to deploy Robotaxi services in the Middle East marks a significant step in the autonomous driving sector [17]. Summary by Sections Industry News - Geely's potential privatization of Zeekr is anticipated to maximize resource utilization and reduce related transactions during the market's elimination phase [5][15]. - The People's Bank of China has announced a temporary reduction in the reserve requirement ratio for automotive finance companies, which is expected to lower financing costs and enhance credit supply for automotive consumption [16]. - Pony.ai and Uber's partnership will introduce Robotaxi services in the Middle East, with plans for expansion into other international markets [17]. Market Performance - From May 6 to May 9, 2025, the automotive sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a gain of 2.03% compared to the index's 2.00% [33][34]. - The automotive sector's PE ratio (TTM) stands at 26.1, reflecting a decrease from the previous week [41]. Data Tracking - In March 2025, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.9374 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.25% [46]. - The retail penetration rate for new energy passenger vehicles reached 51.2% in March 2025, with retail sales of 991,200 units, up 38.78% year-on-year [58]. - The penetration rate for vehicles equipped with L2.5 and above intelligent driving systems reached a historical high of 17.10% in February 2025 [67].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an overview of new vehicle models set to launch in May 2025, detailing specifications, pricing, and market segments for various manufacturers [2]. Group 1: SAIC Volkswagen - The new model, Tiguan L PRO, will be launched on May 7, 2025, in the B SUV segment with a price range of 236,800 to 266,800 CNY [7]. - The vehicle features a 2.0T engine paired with a DCT7 transmission, producing 162 kW of power and 350 N·m of torque [7]. Group 2: FAW Car - The Hongqi H9 will also debut on May 7, 2025, targeting the C NB segment with a price range of 329,800 to 539,800 CNY [15]. - It offers both 2.0T and 3.0T engine options, with the 2.0T engine generating 185 kW and 380 N·m, while the 3.0T engine produces 248 kW and 445 N·m [15]. Group 3: Yundu Automobile - The new model, Ji Xiang AIR, is set to launch on May 7, 2025, in the A NB segment, priced between 147,800 and 159,800 CNY [23]. - It is an all-electric vehicle with a power output of 147 kW and a torque of 250 N·m, featuring battery capacities of 51.2 kWh and 64.1 kWh, providing ranges of 435 km and 530 km respectively [23]. Group 4: Avita Technology - The Avita 12 will be released on May 8, 2025, in the C NB segment, with prices ranging from 269,900 to 429,900 CNY [31]. - It offers both range-extended and pure electric versions, with the pure electric variant achieving a range of 705 km [31]. Group 5: BYD Automobile - The Hai Si 07 DM-i will launch on May 8, 2025, in the C SUV segment, with a price range of 169,800 to 205,800 CNY [39]. - This model features a 1.5T plug-in hybrid engine, producing 115 kW and 225 N·m, with an electric motor output of 200 kW and a torque of 315 N·m [39]. Group 6: Li Auto - The Li L6 is set to launch on May 8, 2025, in the C SUV segment, priced between 249,800 and 279,800 CNY [47]. - It features a 1.5T range-extended engine with a power output of 113 kW and an electric motor producing 300 kW [47]. Group 7: Additional Models from Li Auto - The Li L7 will also be released on May 8, 2025, with prices ranging from 301,800 to 359,800 CNY [55]. - The model features similar engine specifications as the L6, with a focus on enhanced performance [55]. Group 8: Li Auto L8 and L9 - The Li L8 will launch on May 8, 2025, priced between 321,800 and 379,800 CNY, while the L9 will be priced from 409,800 to 439,800 CNY [63][71]. - Both models utilize a 1.5T range-extended engine, with the L9 targeting the D SUV segment [71].

6 月多家新能源汽车品牌批发量为年内新高 在 Shein、Temu 的推动下，华南至美国空运价格较 2019 年翻倍 上海中海·顺昌玖里二期开盘即售罄，单价近每平方米 30 万元 特斯拉止住颓势，二季度销量超预期 关注《晚点财经》并设为星标，第一时间获取每日商业精华。 上半年国内新能源车销量陆续公布。比亚迪以超 34 万辆的月销量继续断层领先、上半年累计卖出 161 万辆新车，完成年度销量目标的 45%。特斯拉中国排 6 月销量榜第二，据乘联会数据约 7.1 万 辆，继续同比下滑 24%、但环比小幅增长。本月，特斯拉推出 5 年免息等优惠购车政策。 理想和蔚来找回节奏，因为给了消费者更有性价比的选项。前者在 L6 的带动下，月销量回暖至 4.78 万辆，同比增长 47%，接近去年 12 月 5 万辆的最高纪录。后者则在 BaaS 电池租用服务费降低以及 创始人李斌的卖力直播影响下，年内第二次月销超过 2 万辆、6 月达到 2.1 万辆，同比接近翻倍。 据摩根士丹利统计，5 月理想和蔚来国内市场份额不同程度增长，机构预计 L6 订单动力将继续支撑 理想在三季度份额回升 —— 顶着赛力斯给的压力。 作为另一家月销 ...

以下文章来源于晚点Auto ，作者晚点团队 晚点Auto . 从制造到创造，从不可能到可能。《晚点LatePost》旗下汽车品牌。 L6 起售价 24.98 万元，还能再降一点吗？ 脚本丨王笑渔 后期丨 Tony 摄影丨张霁欣 编辑丨冒诗阳 作为家族中尺寸最小、起售价最低的车型，L6 将扛起今年全公司的销量重任。尤其是在 MEGA 上 市失利之后，L6 成了 "全村的希望"。 但不巧的是，在 20 万-30 万元价位区间里，理想 L6 将面临小米和问界的左右包夹。L6 的产品力， 真的能够让它在这一竞争最激烈的市场中站稳脚吗？ 在 "普天同降" 的大背景下，理想 L6 的定价，为什么不能再降一点？理想到底在纠结什么呢？ 点击下方，观看视频。 欢迎大家关注 "三里屯车间"。你可以在多个平台搜索并关注我们，不错过每一期视频的更新。我们 解析热点，从产品和技术的视角解析汽车行业的竞争。如果你有希望我们制作的汽车相关选题，欢 迎在后台留言。 各平台搜索 "三里屯车间" 关注我们 4 月 18 日，理想汽车通过线上发布会的形式，正式推出了 L 系列的第四款车——理想 L6。 与 L7、L8、L9 不同的是，L6 这次只 ...