2025 年中国高端消费市场初显回暖信号，呈现理性复苏与结构性分化特征。全年境内个人奢侈品市场同比降幅收窄至 3%-5%，虽仍处调整期，但相较 2019 年仍保持 50% 以上增长体量，长期成长韧性凸显。市场复苏呈 "前低后高" 的 J 型修复，3Q25 起受资本市场回暖与政策发力带动，景气度持续回升，4Q25 销售额同比转正至 1%-3%。 品类方面，消费结构从 "物质占有" 向 "体验优先" 转型。高端服务消费表现亮眼，奢华酒店 RP 持平、入境邮轮游客同比激增 210%，健康保健、旅游等体 验类消费成为高净值人群支出增长重点；商品端呈 K 型分化，美妆个护逆势增长 4%-7%，珠宝品类降幅收窄至 0%-5%，而皮具箱包、腕表分别下滑 8%-11% 和 14%-17%。 复苏动力源于多因素共振：境内外奢侈品价差显著收窄至 12% 左右，叠加消费回流趋势，为内地市场带来增量；促消费政策落地、海南封关与离岛免税新 政拓宽消费渠道；楼市企稳与股市慢牛释放财富效应，高净值人群消费信心修复；外资品牌加强本土化适配，产品与营销更贴合中国市场需求。 人群特征呈现代际分化：Z 世代以悦己消费和文化自信为核心，偏好国潮与线 ...

证券研究报告 可选消费 海外看中国：高端消费复苏启示录 可选消费 增持 (维持) 樊俊豪 研究员 SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 fanjunhao@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 曾珺 研究员 SAC No. S0570523120004 SFC No. BTM417 惠普 研究员 SAC No. S0570524090006 SFC No. BSE005 孙丹阳 研究员 SAC No. S0570519010001 sundanyang@htsc.com SFC No. BQQ696 +(86) 21 2897 2038 张霜凝* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525070015 zhangshuangning@htsc.com 华泰研究 复盘 2025 年海外集团在华经营表现，我们认为我国高端消费初显回暖信号。 以 LVMH 为例，FY3Q25 中国区销售额回正，录得中-高个位数同比增长 （vs1H25 亚太区：-9%），改善趋势逐步显现。品类上看，消费者重视价 值与体验，从面子走向里子，高端服务消费领先复苏，高端商品表现分化。 拉长看 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious recovery in the Chinese personal luxury goods market, with an overall decline expected to narrow to 3%-5% in 2025 [9][11]. Core Insights - The Chinese luxury goods market is gradually recovering, but consumers remain cautious, leading to a decline in non-essential spending. There is a growing preference for high-value luxury items that combine quality, uniqueness, and practicality [8][10]. - The market is witnessing a shift towards experiential luxury consumption, particularly in travel and health, as consumers favor emotional and sensory satisfaction over physical goods [8]. - Brands focusing on affordable luxury and ultra-high-end segments are gaining market share by providing "real value" to affluent young consumers and ultra-high-net-worth individuals [8][10]. - The share of overseas luxury consumption has decreased compared to 2024, driven by a weaker RMB and ongoing domestic promotions, which encourage luxury spending to return to mainland China [8][10]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Chinese personal luxury goods market is projected to shrink by 3%-5% in 2025, with signs of recovery in the third quarter. Different categories show varied performance, with beauty and personal care recovering, while watches continue to face pressure [10][11]. - The second-hand luxury market is growing robustly, with an expected increase of 15%-20%, although it still represents a small portion of the overall market [10][36]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers are becoming more discerning, leading to a cautious approach in luxury purchases. The market is transitioning into a slow growth phase, with expectations for continued recovery into 2026 [10][49]. - The report identifies three main consumer segments driving market dynamics: high-end consumers, middle-aged middle-income consumers, and a new generation of luxury seekers [28]. Category Performance - Beauty and personal care categories are showing strong recovery, with growth rates of 4%-7%. In contrast, the leather goods category is expected to decline by 8%-11% due to insufficient innovation and rising prices [18][20]. - Jewelry is expected to see a reduced decline of 0%-5%, while the watch category is under significant pressure, with an anticipated decline of 14%-17% [20]. Second-Hand Market - The second-hand luxury market is expected to grow significantly, driven by increased supply and changing consumer behavior towards value and sustainability [35][36]. - The second-hand market is primarily concentrated in leather goods and watches, with leather goods accounting for 50%-55% of the market [40]. Local Brand Competitiveness - Chinese local luxury brands are emerging as significant competitors by integrating innovative designs with local culture, thus attracting consumer attention [45]. - These brands are leveraging a deeper understanding of local consumer preferences to create unique product aesthetics and marketing strategies [45][48]. Future Outlook - The luxury market is expected to continue facing volatility and uncertainty in 2026, but there are signs of sustained recovery, supported by domestic policy and geopolitical factors [49][50]. - The second-hand luxury market's low penetration rate compared to global averages indicates substantial growth potential [49].

Core Insights - The 2025 China Personal Luxury Goods Report by Bain & Company indicates a contraction of 3% to 5% in the mainland personal luxury goods market, showing a significant easing compared to the sharp decline in 2024 [1] - The report highlights a shift in consumer behavior towards high-cost performance products that balance quality, uniqueness, and practicality, with a preference for experiential consumption such as travel and health [1] - The report notes that the high-value customer (VIC) group remains the core driver of the luxury goods market, while younger potential consumers are entering the luxury market with a more cautious and delayed approach [1] Market Performance - Different luxury categories show varied performance: beauty and personal care products are recovering with a growth of 4% to 7%, while apparel is declining by 5% to 8%, leather goods by 8% to 11%, watches by 14% to 17%, and jewelry is expected to decline by 0% to 5% compared to 2024 [1] Consumption Trends - The share of overseas luxury goods consumption has significantly decreased in 2025, with 65% of luxury consumption occurring in mainland China and 35% abroad, indicating an increase in consumption return [2] - Mainland consumers' enthusiasm for outbound travel has not diminished their willingness to purchase luxury goods domestically, aided by reduced price gaps between mainland and major overseas markets [2] - The rise of local Chinese luxury brands, particularly in beauty and personal luxury categories, is emphasized, with these brands leveraging culturally relevant product designs and competitive pricing strategies [2] Competitive Advantages - Local brands are building differentiated advantages through a deeper understanding of local consumer preferences, implementing a "China-first" customer outreach strategy, and enhancing access to local quality resources and materials to establish price advantages [3] - Despite ongoing market volatility and uncertainty, Bain forecasts moderate growth for the Chinese personal luxury goods market in 2026, supported by the expanding middle-income group and improving consumer confidence [3]

新京报贝壳财经讯（记者陈维城）1月29日，贝恩公司发布的《2025年中国个人奢侈品报告》显示， 2025年中国内地个人奢侈品市场收缩了3%至5%，相比2024年的大幅下降有明显缓和。贝恩估计，2025 年中国奢侈品消费中有65%发生在中国内地，35%在境外，反映出消费回流的程度有所增加。 贝恩公司全球合伙人杨玥表示："二手市场正在逐渐成为中国奢侈品生态系统中不可或缺的一环，它的 持续增长不仅说明了消费者观念的转变，也标志着整个市场的日益成熟。"她指出，直播平台兼具实时 互动和产品验证两大功能，增强了消费者对二手奢侈品的信心。" 报告还强调了本土中国奢侈品品牌的持续崛起，特别是在美妆护肤和部分个人奢侈品类别中。这些品牌 通过文化相关的产品设计、数字化和互动导向的消费者策略以及由本地投入和供应链支持的竞争性价格 定位获得市场份额。 展望未来，尽管波动和不确定性仍将持续，贝恩预计中国个人奢侈品市场将在2026年实现适度增长，但 仍将保持全球奢侈品市场增长的基石地位。随着中等收入群体的不断壮大、消费者信心的提升以及有利 政策的出台，预计将有更多奢侈品消费回流至中国内地市场。然而，增长的程度仍将高度依赖于具体的 产品类 ...

Core Viewpoint - The high-end consumption sector in China is gradually recovering since Q3 2025, driven by the wealth effect from the stock market, with significant investment opportunities anticipated in 2026 [3][4][6]. Group 1: Recovery of High-End Consumption - The recovery of high-end consumption is validated by three key points: international luxury brands in the Asia-Pacific region have shown revenue growth since Q2 2025, high-end retail properties in China are entering a recovery phase, and the global luxury market has also begun to recover since Q3 2025 [4][16][19]. - The stock market's wealth effect has significantly contributed to the recovery of high-end consumption, with the total market capitalization of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks reaching 123 trillion yuan and 48 trillion HKD respectively by the end of 2025, an increase of 24.5 trillion yuan and 12.7 trillion HKD [12][14]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities in High-End Consumption - The recovery timing and intensity of different high-end consumption categories are influenced by four dimensions: the proportion of VIC (Very Important Customer) groups, the order of consumption following wealth increase, the elasticity of supply, and consumption trends [3][5][35]. - High-net-worth individuals are a primary source supporting high-end consumption, with approximately 300 million global high-end luxury consumers in 2024, where 2%-3% of core VIC users contribute over 40% of sales, a proportion that is continuously increasing [9][24]. - The luxury goods market is expected to see the fastest growth in categories such as luxury cruises, private jets, high-end dining, and personal luxury goods, with jewelry projected to perform best in 2025, growing by 4%-6% [5][28][29]. Group 3: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The luxury experience segment is expected to increase its share to 20% by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 4%, continuing to outperform the overall market [33]. - The recovery of high-end consumption is characterized by a shift from essential needs to optional purchases, with categories that have strong social and status-related demands recovering first, while those with high VIC customer proportions and favorable supply conditions are expected to sustain longer [39].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the China Leather Luggage Museum and the "Lion Ridge Leather" brand selection store marks a significant transition for Lion Ridge from "scale expansion" to "quality enhancement and brand leadership" in the leather goods industry [1]. Group 1: Museum - The newly opened China Leather Luggage Museum serves as a cultural landmark, showcasing the history of the luggage industry and the local heritage of Lion Ridge, which has evolved from producing 300 bags 50 years ago to over 700 million bags annually [2]. - The museum features multiple exhibition areas, including a history zone, craftsmanship zone, designer area, and Lion Ridge honor zone, displaying nearly 300 valuable artifacts and providing an immersive experience for visitors [2]. Group 2: Brand Selection Store - The "Lion Ridge Leather" brand selection store aims to reshape the reputation of local manufacturing and achieve "dual empowerment" between regional and individual brands [3]. - The store features nearly 20 local brands, with all products undergoing strict quality selection by the China Inspection and Quarantine Company, ensuring consumer confidence in product quality [3]. Group 3: Future Vision - The dual launch of the museum and selection store is seen as a critical first step in establishing a new development framework based on industry and brand, with plans for the government to enhance the business environment and support brand cultivation [4]. - The goal is to create a model for traditional manufacturing transformation and upgrade, aiming for Lion Ridge to become a globally recognized center for leather design [4].

Core Insights - Guangdong's "Le Gou Town" initiative aims to promote local consumption and tourism by highlighting unique regional products and experiences [1][2] - The initiative includes eight towns, each specializing in different sectors such as beauty, automotive, and fashion, enhancing their appeal to consumers [1][2] Group 1: Town Features - Guangzhou's Minquan Street is noted for its extensive professional markets, with 57 operational markets covering six categories including beauty and fashion [1] - Shenzhen's Zhongying Street offers a unique shopping experience with cross-border e-commerce and duty-free shopping, targeting both local and Hong Kong consumers [1] - Dongguan's Liaobu Town is recognized as a national automotive consumption hub, with annual funding of 5 million for consumer promotion activities [2] Group 2: Economic Impact - The "Le Gou Town" initiative is part of the "Yue Enjoy Warm Winter, Le You Guangdong" consumption season, aimed at enhancing local economic development [2] - Liaobu's automotive cultural festival has generated over 1.1 billion in consumer spending over five events, showcasing the town's economic impact [2] - The initiative seeks to create a positive cycle of consumption and tourism, contributing to high-quality local economic growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Province has announced the list of "Shopping Towns" for 2025, highlighting 34 selected towns that focus on enhancing consumer value through the integration of industry, culture, and tourism [1][3]. Group 1: Selection of Towns - A total of 34 towns were selected, including 12 industrial towns, 6 agricultural towns, and 16 commercial towns, focusing on various consumer goods such as electronics, toys, clothing, and food [3]. - Notable towns include Guangzhou's "Tea Town," Shenzhen's "Electronic Town," and Foshan's "Home Art Town," showcasing the diversity of Guangdong's industrial clusters [1][3]. Group 2: Industry and Cultural Integration - The initiative aims to upgrade consumer experiences from single product purchases to a combination of products, culture, and experiences, creating a new consumption ecosystem in Guangdong [1]. - The integration of agriculture, culture, commerce, and tourism is emphasized, with towns like Foshan's "Home Art Town" transforming into immersive shopping destinations [10]. Group 3: Consumer Experience Enhancements - The "Guangdong Shopping Map" has been upgraded to version 2.0, featuring new functionalities such as "trade-in" store markings and clearer subsidy information for nearly 30,000 participating stores [12]. - The map aims to enhance consumer navigation and experience, linking coupon distribution with store visits, and is accessible through major payment platforms [12].

Core Viewpoint - The "Modern China" International Footwear, Bag, and Apparel Fashion Exhibition held in Shanghai aims to promote the development of the leather and bag industry in Lushan County, facilitating the "going out" strategy for local enterprises and expanding their domestic and international markets [2][3]. Group 1: Exhibition Overview - The exhibition lasted for three days, themed "Leading Trends, Building Brand Value," featuring 11 exhibition areas with products including footwear, bags, leather clothing, and other leather and fur products [3]. - The event serves as a high-end business cooperation, brand display, and information exchange platform for international and domestic brand enterprises, regional specialties, and independent designers [3]. Group 2: Participation and Outcomes - Lushan County showcased several companies, including Xiangjiangyuan Leather City, Qixiu Technology, and Jiayi Leather, attracting numerous domestic and international buyers [5]. - The exhibition received over 800 inquiries on the first day, with more than 20 potential clients establishing initial cooperation intentions with the participating enterprises [5]. Group 3: Industry Development - Lushan County has established over 170 "one main, one special" enterprises, with 41 being above-scale, achieving nearly 10 billion yuan in output value in 2024 [2]. - The county's leather and bag industry has transitioned from "manufacturing" to "intelligent manufacturing" and from "OEM" to "own brand" through continuous technological investment and original brand development [5].