Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Asian PTA market is affected by the dual impacts of sharp fluctuations in crude oil and tight PX supply. The increase in naphtha prices is much higher than that of PX, leading to a significant contraction in profits. Although demand has recovered with the resumption of polyester plants after the Spring Festival, supply - side risks have significantly increased. Uncertainties in PX supply have led to more concerns about production halts. Due to supply - chain chaos and raw material bottlenecks, further production increases in polyester are restricted, and there may even be temporary production cuts. The extreme tightness on the supply side has led to concentrated force majeure at PTA plants. Asian countries' export restrictions have further exacerbated the raw material shortage. If Middle - East exports cannot resume in the near future, the Asian polyester industry chain is expected to face a severe risk of production decline in April due to the dual shortages of PX and MEG, and the physical supply in the Asian PX market is tight. The market shows obvious chaos, but the acceptance and purchasing willingness of downstream customers are increasing [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Indicators 3.1 Price and Cost Indicators - PTA spot price decreased from 6810 to 6690, a decrease of 120; MEG inner - market price decreased from 5443 to 5339, a decrease of 104; PTA closing price decreased from 6768 to 6684, a decrease of 84; MEG closing price decreased from 5359 to 5218, a decrease of 141; 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 8460 to 8320, a decrease of 140; short - fiber basis decreased from 83 to - 54, a decrease of 137; 4 - 5 spread increased from - 80 to - 40, an increase of 40; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6; 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 6220; the price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 2240 to 2100, a decrease of 140; East China water - bottle chip price increased from 8554 to 8594, an increase of 40; hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 8554 to 8594, an increase of 40; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 8654 to 8694, an increase of 40; outer - market water - bottle chip price decreased from 1180 to 1175, a decrease of 5; bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 908 to 1085, an increase of 177; T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 12500; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 4040 to 4180, an increase of 140; cotton - polyester yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 18500; cotton 328 price decreased from 16580 to 16470, a decrease of 110; cotton - polyester yarn profit increased from 1624 to 1758, an increase of 134; primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 8945; hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from an unknown value to 236, an increase of 137; primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 9350 [2]. 3.2 Production and Sales Indicators - The weekly load of direct - spun staple fiber decreased from 76.98% to 84.13%, a decrease of 7.15%; the production and sales rate of polyester staple fiber decreased from 43.00% to 36.00%, a decrease of 7.00%; the weekly start - up rate of polyester yarn increased from 70.00% to 70.32%, an increase of 0.32%; the weekly load index of recycled cotton - type decreased from 55.44% to 54.81%, a decrease of 0.63% [2][3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - The Asian PX market is in a short - term situation caused by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. The continuous closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to transportation disruptions of 20% of global petroleum liquids and nearly 80% of petrochemical products shipped to Asia, causing a sharp rise in PX spot prices [2]. - Although polyester is about to enter the peak season, the extreme tightness on the supply side has led to concentrated force majeure at PTA factories. Asian countries' restrictions on exports due to fuel safety concerns have further exacerbated the raw material shortage [2]. - If Middle - East exports cannot resume in the near future, the Asian polyester industry chain is expected to face a severe risk of production decline in April due to the dual shortage of PX and MEG. The physical supply of the Asian PX market is tight, and the market is in chaos with low polyester operating loads and poor downstream acceptance of current prices [2]. Group 3: Summary of Data Changes Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 6885 to 6555, a change of - 330 [2]. - MEG inner - market price decreased from 5143 to 5108, a change of - 35 [2]. - PTA closing price decreased from 6834 to 6650, a change of - 184 [2]. - MEG closing price increased from 5220 to 5353, a change of 133 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 8380 to 8381, a change of 1 [2]. - Short - fiber basis decreased from - 44 to - 54, a change of - 10 [2]. - 4 - 5 spread increased from - 3 to 12, a change of 15 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6 [2]. - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 6190 [2]. - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 2190 to 2191, a change of 1 [2]. - East China water bottle chip price decreased from 8820 to 8545, a change of - 275 [2]. - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price decreased from 8820 to 8545, a change of - 275 [2]. - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price decreased from 8920 to 8645, a change of - 275 [2]. - Outer - market water bottle chip price decreased from 1210 to 1160, a change of - 50 [2]. - Bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 1210 to 1229, a change of 19 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn price decreased from 12490 to 12450, a change of - 40 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 4110 to 4069, a change of - 41 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price increased from 18000 to 18300, a change of 300 [2]. - Cotton 328 price decreased from 16330 to 16290, a change of - 40 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1271 to 1586, a change of 314 [2]. - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 9000 [2]. - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 190 to 484, a change of 294 [2]. - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 9330 [2]. Load and Production - Sales Changes - Direct - spun staple fiber load (weekly) decreased from 84.13% to 76.98%, a change of - 7.15% [3]. - Polyester staple fiber production - sales increased from - 32.00% to 20.00%, a change of 52.00% [3]. - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) increased from 70.00% to 70.32%, a change of 0.32% [3]. - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 55.44% to 54.81%, a change of - 0.63% [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Asian PX market is in a short - term situation caused by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. The continuous closure of the Strait of Hormuz has blocked the transportation of 20% of the world's petroleum liquids and nearly 80% of petrochemical products shipped to Asia, leading to a sharp rise in PX spot prices [2]. - Although polyester is about to enter the peak season, the extreme tightness on the supply side has led to force majeure among PTA factories. Asian countries' export restrictions have further exacerbated the raw material shortage [2]. - If Middle - East exports cannot resume in the near future, the Asian polyester industry chain is expected to face a severe risk of production decline in April due to the dual shortage of PX and MEG. The physical supply of the Asian PX market is tight, and the market is in chaos [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 7000 to 6770, a change of - 230; MEG inner - market price dropped from 4868 to 4700, a change of - 168; PTA closing price fell from 6982 to 6918, a change of - 64; MEG closing price decreased from 4897 to 4826, a change of - 71 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased from 8460 to 8350, a change of - 110; short - fiber basis decreased from 82 to - 54, a change of - 136; 4 - 5 spread decreased from 42 to 38, a change of - 4 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6; 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 6190; the spread between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 2270 to 2160, a change of - 110 [2]. - East China water bottle chips price decreased from 9182 to 8834, a change of - 348; hot - filling polyester bottle chips price decreased from 9182 to 8834, a change of - 348; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chips price decreased from 9282 to 8934, a change of - 348; outer - market water bottle chips price decreased from 1260 to 1210, a change of - 50 [2]. - Bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 1566 to 1471, a change of - 95; T32S pure - polyester yarn price decreased from 12500 to 12480, a change of - 20; T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee increased from 4040 to 4130, a change of 90 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 18000; cotton 328 price increased from 16580 to 16610, a change of 30; polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1124 to 1185, a change of 62 [2]. - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 9000; hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 184 to 437, a change of 253; primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 9330 [2]. 2. Market Conditions - In the short - fiber market, the main short - fiber futures dropped 78 to 8278. Cost decline dominated the price trend. Polyester staple fiber production factories negotiated prices, traders' prices declined, downstream buyers purchased as needed, and on - site transactions were sluggish [2]. - In the bottle - chip market, the mainstream market price of polyester staple fiber declined. The weakening support of polymerization cost for polyester staple fiber, price negotiation by production factories, price decline of traders, low downstream purchasing willingness, and limited market transactions were the main reasons [2]. 3. Operating Rates - Direct - spinning short - fiber load (weekly) decreased from 84.13% to 76.98%, a change of - 7.15%; polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 47.00% to 44.00%, a change of - 3.00% [3]. - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) increased from 70.00% to 70.32%, a change of 0.32%; recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 54.81% to 55.44%, a change of - 0.63% [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is expected to strengthen significantly due to geopolitical influences. Northeast Asian refineries are facing tight crude oil supply and have to reduce their production loads because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The speculative sentiment in the Asian PX market has rebounded, but the physical supply is tight, and PX physical goods are in short supply. Downstream replenishment is rapid, and the polyester operating load is lower than expected. South Korea, India, and Thailand may face significant operational difficulties. The floating spread of PX has reached +40, and the spread between PX and naphtha has rebounded to $300. Tensions in the Middle East have brought short - term energy price volatility risks, and the upstream price increase has begun to be transmitted downstream [2]. Group 3: Data Summary 1. Price Changes - PTA spot price increased from 6180 to 6320, a change of 140 [2]. - MEG inner - market price decreased from 4408 to 4400, a change of - 8 [2]. - PTA closing price increased from 6200 to 6660, a change of 460 [2]. - MEG closing price increased from 4305 to 4577, a change of 272 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 7805 to 7885, a change of 80 [2]. - Short - fiber basis decreased from 93 to 58, a change of - 35 [2]. - 4 - 5 spread decreased from 102 to 52, a change of - 50 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical spread increased from 1655 to 1735, a change of 80 [2]. - East China water - bottle chip price increased from 7309 to 7955, a change of 646 [2]. - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 7309 to 7955, a change of 646 [2]. - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 7409 to 8055, a change of 646 [2]. - Outer - market water - bottle chip price increased from 1025 to 1080, a change of 55 [2]. - Bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 548 to 1077, a change of 529 [2]. - T32S pure - polyester yarn price decreased from 12300 to 12250, a change of - 50 [2]. - T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 4495 to 4365, a change of - 130 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price increased from 17700 to 17800, a change of 100 [2]. - Cotton 328 price increased from 16430 to 16650, a change of 220 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1315 to 1279, a change of - 36 [2]. - Hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 764 to 647, a change of - 117 [2]. 2. Operating Rate and Sales - Direct - spun staple fiber load (weekly) decreased from 84.13% to 76.98%, a change of - 7.15% [3]. - Polyester staple fiber sales increased from - 9.00% to 66.00%, a change of 57.00% [3]. - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) increased from 70.00% to 70.32%, a change of 0.32% [3]. - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 55.44% to 54.81%, a change of - 0.63% [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Weekend crude oil is affected by geopolitics with expected significant strengthening; Asian PX market speculative sentiment rebounds but physical supply is stable; despite upcoming March maintenance of some PTA devices, PX physical goods are not in short - supply; demand is in a calm period, downstream replenishment is not active, and polyester's operating load is lower than expected; domestic PX market supply is sufficient, but there will be a major turnaround season for refineries from March to May, and supply is expected to tighten; PX - crude oil price difference has rebounded to $310; Middle - East geopolitical tensions may bring short - term energy price volatility risks; bottle - chip profit expands, and short - fiber profit is expected to expand [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Index Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 5235 to 5155, a change of - 80; MEG inner - market price decreased from 3641 to 3621, a change of - 20; PTA closing price decreased from 5260 to 5250, a change of - 10; MEG closing price increased from 3700 to 3703, a change of 3; 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6685 to 6695, a change of 10; short - fiber basis decreased from 76 to 34, a change of - 42; 3 - 4 spread increased from - 86 to - 48, a change of 38; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6; 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical difference increased from 1385 to 1395, a change of 10; East China water bottle - chip price increased from 6280 to 6331, a change of 51; hot - filling polyester bottle - chip price increased from 6280 to 6331, a change of 51; carbonated - grade polyester bottle - chip price increased from 6380 to 6431, a change of 51; outer - market water bottle - chip price decreased from 850 to 845, a change of - 5; bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 584 to 710, a change of 126; T32S pure polyester yarn price increased from 10800 to 10900, a change of 100; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 4115 to 4205, a change of 90; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16900; cotton 328 price decreased from 16490 to 16435, a change of - 55; polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1235 to 1249, a change of 14; primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7295; hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 300 to 474, a change of 75; primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7895 [2] 2. Market Conditions - Short - fiber: Due to intensified Middle - East conflict and rising oil price expectations, polyester staple fiber production factory prices are running strongly, trader prices are rising, some downstream are replenishing, and on - site transactions are okay. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market is 6530 - 6770 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included self - pick - up; in the North China market, it is 6650 - 6890 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included delivery; in the Fujian market, it is 6600 - 6850 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included delivery. - Bottle - chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is 6300 - 6400 yuan/ton, with the average price rising 75 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures are closed, supplier quotes are raised, market spot supply has increased, downstream terminal demand follows up with rigid needs, and the market negotiation center has risen [2] 3. Operating Rate and Sales - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) decreased from 89.90% to 84.13%, a change of - 5.77%; polyester staple fiber sales decreased from 47.00% to 46.00%, then increased to 93.00%; polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) increased from 70.00% to 70.32%, a change of 0.32%; recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 55.44% to 54.81%, a change of - 0.63% [2][3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Group 2: Report Core Views Polyolefin Industry - Market short - covering sentiment cooled, spot trading worsened. For PE, HD - LLDPE spread narrowed, with increased marginal supply of LLDPE and weakening downstream demand in the off - season. For PP, supply and demand were both weak, with more maintenance, expected destocking in January, and improved balance. Pay attention to the implementation of future maintenance [2]. Methanol Industry - Methanol futures opened lower and then fluctuated narrowly, with light spot trading. Inland prices are expected to fluctuate, while port prices are under pressure due to factors such as low MTO profits and potential device maintenance [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure benzene has a weak short - term supply - demand pattern but is supported by the strong performance of downstream styrene. Styrene has short - term supply shortages but may accumulate inventory around the Spring Festival [8]. Natural Rubber Industry - Supply: Domestic production is ending, and raw material prices are rising. Demand: Some semi - steel tire export orders are increasing, and inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [9][10]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash futures are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with high inventory and weak downstream demand. Glass futures are also expected to decline, with weakening supply and demand in the off - season [11]. Urea Industry - Urea supply is high, but short - term regional agricultural demand boosts market confidence. Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream agricultural demand and plant restart schedules [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak, with increased supply and lack of demand improvement. PVC fundamentals are under pressure, with high supply, low demand, and inventory accumulation [13]. LPG Industry - No specific view provided in the content Crude Oil Industry - Oil prices fell on Thursday. Geopolitical risks have eased, and the supply - demand outlook is weak. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [17]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX is expected to fluctuate at a high level before the Spring Festival and may be tight in the second quarter. PTA and MEG are expected to have weak supply - demand in January and February. Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are mainly driven by raw materials [19]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Changes**: L2605 and L2609 closed down, PP2605 slightly up, PP2609 down. Some spreads and basis had significant changes [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased, while PE device and downstream weighted开工率 decreased, and PP device开工率 slightly increased [2]. Methanol Industry - **Price Changes**: MA2605 and MA2609 closed down, with significant changes in some spreads and basis [5]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased slightly, while port and social inventories decreased. Upstream and downstream开工率 had different changes [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Price Changes**: Many prices such as crude oil, pure benzene, and styrene decreased, with some spreads and basis changing [8]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Some开工率 increased, while some decreased. Pure benzene port inventory reached a record high, and styrene port inventory decreased [8]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Price Changes**: Spot prices of natural rubber decreased, and some spreads changed significantly [9]. - **Production,开工率, and Inventory**: Production in some regions changed, tire开工率 increased, and inventory in China continued to accumulate [9]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Price Changes**: Glass and soda ash prices were mostly stable, with some futures prices down [11]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Soda ash production increased, demand was weak, and inventory was high. Glass supply and demand were weak, and inventory was still relatively high year - on - year [11]. Urea Industry - **Price Changes**: Futures prices fluctuated down, and spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply was high, industrial demand was stable, and agricultural demand in some regions increased [12]. - **Inventory**: Factory and port inventories decreased [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Price Changes**: Caustic soda and PVC prices decreased slightly, with some spreads and basis changing [13]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Caustic soda supply increased, demand was weak, and inventory increased in some regions. PVC supply was stable, demand was low, and inventory accumulated [13]. LPG Industry - **Price Changes**: Some futures prices changed slightly, and spot prices were stable [15]. - **Inventory and开工率**: LPG refinery and port inventories decreased slightly, and some开工率 increased while some decreased [15]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Changes**: Brent and WTI prices decreased, while SC increased slightly. Many refined oil product prices decreased [17]. - **Spread Changes**: Some spreads such as Brent - WTI changed [17]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price Changes**: Upstream and downstream product prices in the polyester industry chain mostly decreased, with changes in some spreads and basis [19]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Some开工率 increased slightly while some decreased. MEG port inventory increased, and the arrival forecast decreased [19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View - The PX market has experienced a rapid increase, driven mainly by speculative funds rather than fundamental changes. The futures market dominates price discovery, creating an "irrational boom" with self - reinforcing trends. Despite concerns about bubbles, the PX fundamentals are supported, and the market is expected to remain tight in 2026. The PX - naphtha spread has widened to $360, and the PX - mixed xylene spread has reached $155, improving aromatics extraction economics. The PX market is at a critical juncture between speculative sentiment and fundamental tension. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operations, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the resumption of exports to India since the end of November. The high gasoline spread supports aromatics, and new polyester installations keep polyester load and PTA consumption high, with increasing inventory willingness and strengthening basis. Although domestic polyester demand weakens seasonally, polyester factory production cuts are insufficient to form a negative feedback [2] Group 3: Summary by Indicators Price and Spread Indicators - PTA spot price decreased from 5100 on 2026/1/12 to 5060 on 2026/1/13, a decline of 40 [2] - MEG inner - market price dropped from 3734 on 2026/1/12 to 3686 on 2026/1/13, a decrease of 48 [2] - PTA closing price fell from 5142 to 5140, a decline of 2 [2] - MEG closing price decreased by 65, from 3880 to 3815 [2] - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price remained unchanged at 6520 [2] - Short - fiber basis decreased from 38 to 34, a drop of 4 [2] - The 2 - 3 spread increased from 18 to 16, an increase of 2 [2] - 1.4D imitation large - fiber price decreased from 5275 to 5250, a decline of 25 [2] - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - fiber increased from 1245 to 1270, an increase of 25 [2] - East - China water - bottle chip price decreased from 6125 to 6097, a decline of 28 [2] - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price decreased from 6125 to 6097, a decline of 28 [2] - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price decreased from 6225 to 6197, a decline of 28 [2] - Outer - market water - bottle chip price remained unchanged at 810 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10600 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee remained unchanged at 4080 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16600 [2] - Cotton 328 price increased from 15365 to 15610, an increase of 245 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1469 to 1377, a decline of 93 [2] - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7210 [2] - Primary low - melting - point short - fiber price remained unchanged at 7775 [2] Cash Flow and Processing Fee Indicators - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2] - Bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 514 to 536, an increase of 22 [2] - Hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 399 to 449, an increase of 50 [2] Market and Production Indicators - Direct - spinning short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 86.77% to 88.84%, an increase of 2.07 percentage points [3] - Polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 87.00% to 80.00%, a decline of 7.00 percentage points [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00% [3] - Recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [3] Market Conditions - Short - fiber: The short - fiber main - contract futures decreased by 24 to 6506. In the spot market, polyester staple fiber production factory prices were stable, while trader prices slightly declined. Downstream buyers purchased on - demand, and on - site transactions were limited. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural - white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East - China market was 6380 - 6650 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included self - pick - up; in the North - China market, it was 6500 - 6770 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included delivery; and in the Fujian market, it was 6440 - 6630 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included delivery [2] - Bottle - chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 6100 - 6180 yuan/ton, with the average price increasing by 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated upward. The cost - side support was strong. Most supply - side quotes remained stable, with local supplies being slightly tight. The low - end price center shifted slightly upward. The overall market trading atmosphere was light, and the market negotiation center shifted slightly upward [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong due to supportive market bullish factors, such as the confirmed reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang, fast cotton sales progress, improved Sino - US relations, and expansion capacity expectations of Xinjiang textile mills. However, the cotton price has significantly corrected recently, and it's necessary to observe if it can break through the 20 - day line. For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for the short - term trends of US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options [6][7][9] - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is light, with prices stable to slightly rising. The acceptance of new price increases by downstream is poor. The shipment of all - cotton plain cloth is still divided, with clothing fabric mills cautious and home textile fabric mills having a slightly better attitude. Attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream demand [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Disk**: For cotton futures contracts (CF01, CF05, CF09), the closing prices decreased, with the decline ranging from 20 to 65. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of CF05 increased by 106,794, while its open interest decreased by 31,033. For cotton yarn futures contracts (CY01, CY05, CY09), the closing prices mostly decreased, and trading volume and open interest also had various changes [2] - **Spot Prices**: The price of CCIndex3128B decreased by 135 to 15,857 yuan/ton, while the price of CY IndexC32S remained unchanged at 21,300 yuan/ton. Other spot prices such as Cot A, FC Index, etc., also had corresponding changes [2] - **Price Spreads**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was 85 with a 30 increase; in cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was - 425 with a 110 increase. In cross - variety spreads, CY01 - CF01 was 5515 with a 20 increase. The internal - external price spreads of cotton and cotton yarn also changed [2] 3.2 Market News and Views 3.2.1 Cotton Market News - As of January 9, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.7756 million tons, accounting for 89.2% of the estimated US cotton production in the 2025/26 season, 9% slower than the same period last year. The inspection progress of upland cotton was 89.37%, and that of Pima cotton was 88.6%. The quarterly deliverable ratio was 82.3%, 1.4 percentage points higher year - on - year. It is expected that the inspection speed will accelerate later [4] - As of January 2, the number of un - priced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2603 contract decreased by 1,977 to 18,662, a 40,000 - ton decrease from last week. The total number of un - priced contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season decreased by 2,068 to 36,195, equivalent to 820,000 tons, a 50,000 - ton decrease from last week [5] - On January 12, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang cotton was 0.1726 yuan/ton·km, a 3.52% decrease from the previous day. It is expected that the freight index will show a narrow - range fluctuation in the short term [5] 3.2.2 Trading Logic - The rumored reduction in cotton production has been gradually confirmed. The cotton sales progress is fast, and factors such as improved Sino - US relations and the expansion capacity of Xinjiang textile mills support the upward movement of fundamentals. The upward trend of the disk is obvious, with some ginning mills reluctant to sell and downstream textile mills starting to price [6] 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is expected that the short - term trend of US cotton will mostly be range - bound. For Zhengzhou cotton, the positions of the recent main contracts have decreased, and the price has dropped significantly. It is recommended to wait and see [7] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8] - **Options**: Wait and see [9] 3.2.4 Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is light, with prices stable to slightly rising. The acceptance of new price increases by downstream is poor, but there is a slight improvement in downstream orders in some markets. Attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream demand [9] - The shipment of all - cotton plain cloth is divided. Clothing fabric mills are cautious, and home textile fabric mills have a slightly better attitude. Observe the post - Spring Festival market situation [9] 3.3 Options - The 10 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 6.4492, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 6.7%, that of CF601 - P - 13000 was 11.4%, and that of CF601 - P - 12400 was 17.8% [11] - Yesterday, the position PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7339, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6421. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see for options [12][13] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the internal - external market cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton 1 - month basis, cotton 5 - month basis, cotton 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [15][18][22][23]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gasoline crack spreads are declining, but PX prices are strong, supporting the PX - naphtha spread. Despite no significant fundamental changes, PTA units maintain high - load operation, and PX consumption remains stable. Korean manufacturers plan to cut STDP operation and shut down relevant units in the second half of December due to the widened PX - mixed xylene spread. PX costs are high while PTA profits are under pressure, but integrated enterprises' economic benefits improve. New polyester installations keep the polyester load high, increasing PTA consumption and market inventory intention, and strengthening the basis. Although domestic demand is seasonally weak, polyester factories have low inventories and low willingness to cut production, and the cancellation of India's BIS certification may drive export growth [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Market Conditions - PTA spot price increased from 5015 to 5050, MEG inner - market price rose from 3573 to 3653, and PTA closing price went up from 5094 to 5152. The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6550 to 6575. Polyester bottle - chip prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets rose, with the average price up 30 yuan/ton. Cotton 328 price increased from 14910 to 15000 [2] Market Transaction - In the short - fiber market, downstream purchasing is cautious, and the market is mainly bought by futures - spot traders with scarce transactions. In the bottle - chip market, the trading atmosphere is cautious, and downstream terminals are on the sidelines [2] Industry Operation Indicators - The direct - spun short - fiber load increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, and the polyester short - fiber production and sales rate decreased from 80.00% to 56.00%. The polyester yarn startup rate and the recycled cotton - type load index remained unchanged [2][3] Profit and Cost - The polyester short - fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, the bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 527 to 469, the T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3800 to 3775, and the polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1321 to 1271. The cash flow of 6 - 15D hollow short - fiber decreased from 465 to 408 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of new cotton is increasing significantly this year, but the expected increase may be less than previously thought. The demand side is in a relatively off - season after the peak season, and orders have been average recently. However, previous negative factors have been mostly reflected in the market. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will likely fluctuate within a limited range [6]. - The overall atmosphere in the cotton yarn industry is weakening, with the price of pure - cotton yarn remaining stable, and some large manufacturers offering price promotions. The overall startup rate has not changed much, but inventory has increased. If there is no significant improvement in new orders, the yarn price may decline further. Attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream terminal demand [10]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Market Information - **Futures Market**: For CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts of cotton, the closing prices were 13765, 13725, and 13860 respectively, with price increases of 40, 40, and 70. The trading volumes were 200,316, 118,427, and 4,067 hands respectively, showing decreases of 66,349, 3,732, and 1,026 hands. The open - interest positions were 546,943, 370,519, and 13,609, with increases of 1,675, 22,949, and 1,112 respectively. For CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts of cotton yarn, the closing prices were 20045, 20040, and 20095 respectively, with price changes of - 45, 60, and - 30. The trading volumes were 4,978, 60, and 2 hands respectively, showing decreases of 8,693, increases of 55, and decreases of 8. The open - interest positions were 6543, 46, and 7, with changes of - 1364, 6, and 0 respectively [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B was 14936 yuan/ton, up 45; Cot A was 74.95 cents/pound; the arrival price of (FC Index):M was 73.91; the price of polyester staple fiber was 7450 yuan/ton, up 70; the price of viscose staple fiber was 12800 yuan/ton, down 50. For cotton yarn, CY IndexC32S was 20770 yuan/ton, up 30; FCY IndexC33S was 20988 yuan/ton, down 11; the price of Indian S - 6 was 55800; the price of pure polyester yarn T32S was 11050 yuan/ton, up 100; the price of viscose yarn R30S was 17300 yuan/ton, up 50 [2]. - **Spread**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was 40 (unchanged), the 5 - 9 spread was - 135 (down 30), and the 9 - 1 spread was 95 (up 30). In cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was 5 (down 105), the 5 - 9 spread was - 55 (up 90), and the 9 - 1 spread was 50 (up 15). In cross - variety spreads, CY01 - CF01 was 6280 (down 85), CY05 - CF05 was 6315 (up 20), and CY09 - CF09 was 6235 (down 100). The 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread was 1899 (up 14), the sliding - duty internal - external cotton spread was 933 (up 12), and the internal - external yarn spread was - 218 (up 41) [2]. 2. Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: As of the week of November 28, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton + Pima cotton was 1.7585 million tons, accounting for 57.3% of the estimated annual U.S. cotton production, 12% slower than the same period last year. The inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton was 1.7234 million tons, with an inspection progress of 57.63%, a 12% year - on - year decrease; the inspection volume of Pima cotton was 35,100 tons, with an inspection progress of 42.4%, a 34% year - on - year decrease. The weekly deliverable ratio was 85.7%, the quarterly deliverable ratio was 82%, 0.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and the quarterly deliverable ratio increased month - on - month. The U.S. cotton harvest is in the late stage, and the listing inspection peak season has seen a narrowing of the year - on - year lag in the listing progress, with the overall inspection of Pima cotton being much slower. The quarterly deliverable ratio continues to rise. In the week of October 16, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 U.S. upland cotton was 39,800 tons, a 11% weekly increase and a 5% increase compared to the average of the previous four weeks; the weekly signing volume of 2026/27 U.S. upland cotton was 6,100 tons; the weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 U.S. upland cotton was 36,200 tons, a 15% weekly increase and a 1% increase compared to the average of the previous four weeks [4]. - **Trading Logic**: In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be some selling - hedging pressure in the market. Although this year's cotton production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. On the demand side, after the peak season, the market enters a relative off - season. Overall, the large - scale listing of new cotton on the supply side and a significant increase in production this year but a possible smaller - than - expected increase; on the demand side, recent orders have been average, but previous negative factors have been mostly reflected in the market. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will likely fluctuate within a limited range [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, it is expected that the future trend of U.S. cotton will likely be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate. For arbitrage and options, the recommendation is to wait and see [8][9][10]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: Zhengzhou cotton continues to fluctuate strongly. Although there is some resilience in recent demand, the overall atmosphere is weakening. The price of pure - cotton yarn remains stable, and some large manufacturers have carried out price promotions. The overall startup rate has not changed much, but inventory has increased. The rise in Zhengzhou cotton has gradually weakened the cash flow of spinning enterprises, and combined with year - end bank repayment, supplier settlement, and worker wage payment, enterprises are under great pressure. If there is no significant improvement in new orders, the yarn price may decline further. Attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream terminal demand. The rigid demand for all - cotton clothing grey fabric is weak, and both the volume and price are expected to decline further. The grey fabric market has low popularity and insufficient confidence, mainly due to the decline in demand leading to insufficient factory orders. The price center has shifted downwards, and actual orders can be negotiated. The situation of dyeing factories varies, with better - performing ones having orders that can last about half a month, and those with less business being able to deliver goods in 7 days [10]. 3. Options - **Option Data**: On November 24, 2025, for the CF601C13400.CZC option contract, the underlying contract price was 13585.00, the closing price was 183.00, with a price increase of 71.0%, an implied volatility (IV) of 6.7%, a Delta of 0.7924, a Gamma of 0.0012, a Vega of 8.9763, a Theta of - 2.5396, a theoretical leverage of 74.2350, and an actual leverage of 58.8238. For the CF601P13000.CZC option contract, the underlying contract price was 13585.00, the closing price was 7.00, with a price decrease of 75.9%, an IV of 11.4%, a Delta of - 0.0470, a Gamma of 0.0000, a Vega of 3.0820, a Theta of - 1.2967, a theoretical leverage of 1,940.7143, and an actual leverage of 91.2136. For the CF601P12400.CZC option contract, the underlying contract price was 13585.00, the closing price was 2.00, with a price decrease of 83.3%, an IV of 17.3%, a Delta of - 0.0106, a Gamma of 0.0001, a Vega of 0.8840, a Theta of - 0.5394, a theoretical leverage of 6,792.5000, and an actual leverage of 72.0005. The 10 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton was 6.4492, slightly higher than the previous day. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 were 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively [12]. - **Option Strategy**: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7339, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6421. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. The recommendation for options is to wait and see [13][14]. 4. Related Attachments - The text provides multiple figures, including the internal - external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the spread between CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01, and the spreads of CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 [16][19][23][24].