证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 ◼ 市场表现回顾： ◼ 事件驱动盘点： ◼ 指数后市展望： ◼ 风险提示： 1)行业政策或监管环境突变；2)宏观经济不及预期；3)发生重大预期外的事 件。 金融产品深度报告 20260202 纳斯达克 100ETF，1 月复盘与 2 月展望 2026 年 02 月 02 日 [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 唐遥衎 执业证书：S0600524120016 tangyk@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 2026-02-01 东吴证券研究所 1 / 19 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 走势复盘：2026 年 1 月，纳斯达克 100 指数月度上涨 1.20%，整体震荡 向上。上旬弱经济数据强化宽松预期，推动指数上行；中旬因 PPI 超预 期、鲍威尔遭调查及特朗普地缘言论等风险集中爆发，引发指数调整； 下旬政治危机缓和，财报季验证 AI 与半导体需求强劲，但高位 PPI 及 特朗普提名鹰派美联储主席候选人重燃政策疑虑，导致指数回调。 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Real Estate Market in China - The Chinese real estate market is transitioning from a rapid decline to a stabilization phase, which is expected to take time. The government may implement selective pilot policies, such as mortgage subsidies, to prevent excessive adjustments and moral hazards, but comprehensive support would be costly [1][3][4] - The real estate sector continues to significantly drag on China's nominal GDP, with a projected impact of -2.3% in 2025 and around -1.7% in 2026-2027, posing challenges to achieving a 5% GDP growth target [1][4][18] - The current state of the real estate market is characterized by falling prices, which suppresses consumption and employment, necessitating policy intervention to restore expectations [7][17] Global Geopolitical Landscape - The global geopolitical landscape is characterized by "stability in the East and turmoil in the West," affecting dollar assets and leading to a noticeable depreciation of the dollar. Central banks are increasingly holding gold and other non-traditional safe-haven assets to mitigate risks associated with fiat currency systems [1][5] - Western countries are adopting a more pragmatic approach towards China, seeking mutually beneficial cooperation in sectors like new energy vehicles, agricultural products, and services, which provides a window for upgrading China's export industry and attracting foreign investment [1][6] AI and Data Center Industry - The demand for data centers is expected to grow significantly, driven by the anticipated capacity of domestic GPUs. The overall growth rate of the industry is projected to be 18% over the next three years [2][29] - AI applications have a higher tolerance for network latency, which is facilitating the rapid emergence of data centers in remote areas [30][31] - The investment return rates for data centers are expected to stabilize around 10-11%, regardless of location, due to changes in supply and demand dynamics [32] Core Insights and Arguments Real Estate Market Challenges - The real estate market is currently in a phase of declining transaction volumes and prices, with a need for policy interventions to prevent further deterioration. The government is likely to adopt targeted measures rather than broad-based support [3][17][26] - The anticipated decline in housing prices is projected to be 8% in 2026 and 6% in 2027, with stabilization expected in high-demand cities by late 2027 [16][22] Geopolitical and Economic Implications - The depreciation of the dollar and the shift towards gold as a strategic asset reflect a broader trend of declining confidence in traditional fiat currency systems. The expectation is that gold prices could reach $5,700 per ounce by the second half of 2026 [5][14] - The geopolitical environment is conducive to Chinese asset allocation, with a healthy liquidity in the Chinese stock market and effective regulatory interventions to maintain rational market sentiment [10][11] AI Sector Dynamics - The competition between China and the U.S. in the AI sector shows strengths on both sides, with the U.S. leading in large models and computational power, while China excels in domestic computational alternatives and application scenarios [9] - The shift in data center strategies among internet companies towards relying on service providers rather than building their own facilities is indicative of a healthy market evolution in remote areas [34] Additional Important Insights - The recent improvement in transaction volumes in major cities is attributed to various factors, including policy adjustments and seasonal effects, but its sustainability remains uncertain [23][24] - The overall sentiment in the Chinese stock market has shown signs of rationality, with regulatory measures effectively managing market emotions [11] - The long-term outlook for housing demand in China suggests a shift towards a predominance of second-hand housing transactions by 2040, with a significant reduction in new housing sales [27][28]

Domestic Market Overview - The market experienced a contraction with mixed performance on January 15, 2026, where the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4112.6 points, down 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41% to 14306.73 points [10][11] - Among the 30 sectors tracked, 8 sectors saw gains, with basic chemicals, electronics, and non-ferrous metals leading the increases, while comprehensive finance, defense, and media sectors faced significant declines [11] - The total trading volume for the A-share market was 29,385 billion, a substantial decrease from the previous day [11] Overseas Market Overview - On January 15, 2026, the three major U.S. stock indices saw slight increases, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.6%, the S&P 500 by 0.26%, and the Nasdaq by 0.25% [2] - Notable stock performances included Goldman Sachs increasing over 4% and Nvidia rising more than 2%, leading the Dow [2] Economic Drivers - The People's Bank of China implemented a series of monetary policy measures to support high-quality economic development, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the re-lending and rediscount rates [12][19] - The central bank's actions are expected to boost market sentiment, with 2,230 stocks rising and 3,121 falling on the same day [12] Key Economic Data - The central bank reported that the total social financing scale for 2025 reached 35.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.34 trillion yuan from the previous year [18] - The breakdown of financing included a 15.91 trillion yuan increase in RMB loans to the real economy, with various other financing methods also contributing to the total [18] Industry Insights - The report highlights the performance of specific sectors, noting that advanced packaging, cobalt mining, and lithography machines showed active index performance [11] - The report indicates a focus on supporting small and medium-sized enterprises through increased lending and financial support measures [12]

Market Analysis - The A-share market shows a "weak Shanghai, strong Shenzhen" pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4112.60, down 0.33%, marking three consecutive days of decline, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41% to 14306.73 [2] - The overall market turnover decreased significantly to 2.94 trillion yuan, down approximately 1 trillion yuan from the previous day, indicating a contraction in trading activity [2][7] - The market saw a divergence in performance, with 2226 stocks rising and 3121 falling, reflecting a notable reduction in profit-making opportunities compared to earlier periods [2] Sector Performance - Technology and cyclical sectors led the gains, with advanced packaging, photolithography machines, semiconductor materials, and HBM index rising by 3.79%, 3.76%, 3.66%, and 3.27% respectively, driven by U.S. tariffs on certain semiconductor imports [5] - Conversely, sectors that had previously surged, such as commercial aerospace and AI applications, faced significant declines, with commercial aerospace down 4.46% and AI application stocks experiencing a drop of 5.78% [5][7] Policy and Economic Signals - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is signaling a loosening monetary policy, with structural interest rate cuts expected to support credit growth and stabilize the market [12] - The PBOC's recent actions include a net injection of liquidity through reverse repos and a reduction in the rates for relending and rediscounting, aimed at enhancing support for key sectors [12] - The M1 and M2 growth rates indicate a widening gap, suggesting that while liquidity is ample, short-term corporate vitality remains weak, necessitating further policy measures to boost economic activity [11][12] Commodity Market - The commodity index fell by 0.51%, with a mixed performance across sectors; however, non-ferrous metals showed strength, particularly tin, which surged by 8.30% [15] - Tin prices remain robust due to supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions in the Democratic Republic of Congo and production issues in Myanmar, alongside increased demand from the semiconductor industry [15] Investment Opportunities - Key sectors to watch include AI applications, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, and robotics, all of which are supported by government policies and technological advancements [17] - The report suggests a continued bullish trend in non-ferrous metals, indicating potential investment opportunities in this area [20]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Hold" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the continuous progress in the AI field and the acceleration of commercialization, particularly with the ongoing iterations of large models [1][4] - The computer industry index outperformed major indices, with a 8.49% increase, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.67 percentage points [2] - The CES 2026 event showcased significant advancements in AI and embodied intelligence, with notable participation from Chinese companies [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - During the week of January 5-9, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.82%, the ChiNext Index by 3.89%, and the CSI 300 Index by 2.79%, while the computer industry index increased by 8.49% [2] AI Developments - The CES 2026 event featured over 4,000 exhibitors, with nearly a quarter being Chinese companies, emphasizing the growing influence of AI technologies [4] - NVIDIA's new Rubin AI platform was introduced, promising significant improvements in inference costs and training efficiency [4] - The upcoming DeepSeek V4 model is expected to launch around the Lunar New Year, boasting enhanced coding capabilities [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the following areas: 1. Computing power: Cambrian, Haiguang Information, Zhongke Shuguang, Huafeng Technology, Shenling Environment, Yingweike, Oulu Tong, and Zhongheng Electric [6] 2. AIDC: Kehua Data, Yunsai Zhili, Hongxin Electronics, Runjian Co., Runze Technology, and Data Port [6] 3. AI applications: Kingsoft Office, iFlytek, Foxit Software, Wanxing Technology, Dingjie Zhizhi, Hand Information, Nengke Technology, and Zhuoyi Information [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Nvidia's H200 chip will be available for purchase in China by December 2025, with ByteDance reportedly planning to invest nearly 100 billion yuan in H200 chip procurement if approved [1] - There is a significant interest from companies like ByteDance and X in rapidly placing orders for the H200 chip following its release [1] Group 2 - Some public reactions indicate frustration over the decision to purchase foreign chips instead of domestic alternatives, raising questions about the preference for non-Chinese semiconductor products [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent approval by Trump for NVIDIA to export H200 chips to China, highlighting the potential impact on Chinese tech companies like ByteDance and Alibaba, which are reportedly planning to place large orders for these advanced AI chips [3][4]. Group 1: Export Approval and Market Response - On December 9, 2025, Trump allowed NVIDIA to export H200 chips to China, which are significantly more powerful than previously allowed models [3][4]. - ByteDance and Alibaba have consulted NVIDIA regarding the procurement of H200 chips, indicating a strong interest in acquiring these advanced technologies [4][9]. - The H200 chip is approximately six times more powerful than the previously exportable H100 chip, which was subject to stricter export controls [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The production of H200 chips is limited as NVIDIA is focusing on its more advanced Blackwell and upcoming Rubin series [6]. - A representative from a Chinese cloud service company noted that major AI model training in China still relies heavily on NVIDIA chips, suggesting that leading firms are likely to quietly purchase H200 chips in large quantities [7]. - Despite the approval for H200, weaker models like A100 and H100 remain under export restrictions, creating a unique market situation for the H200 [8].