新华财经上海11月22日电 2025年已接近尾声，全球大类资产配置有何趋势，A股市场哪些板块更具投资价值，跨年行情又会呈现出哪些新的特征？围绕资产 配置与股市行情，在近期举行的第十四届"沪上金融家"的颁奖活动上，来自九方智投的多位业界投资专家接受了新华财经采访。他们表示，增配人民币资产 或已成为全球资产配置的重要趋势，得益于中国经济稳健复苏和人工智能（AI）等科技创新的支撑，A股市场有望继续上行，跨年行情值得期待，新能源、 消费等板块具备投资价值。 人民币资产受全球资本配置青睐 今年以来，全球经济复苏分化、美国关税政策扰动、美联储降息博弈、美股AI泡沫讨论持续、中国资产重估叙事等多重因素相互交织，驱动着各类资产估 值重构与资金流向调整。全球资本正重新评估不同区域资产的风险收益比，并调整相关资产配置。 A股有望继续向上拓展空间 从今年全球大类资产配置来看，两条核心主线已清晰显现。九方智投首席投顾黄伟分析认为，第一条主线是避险，黄金等贵金属价格大幅上涨，成为全球资 金的重要选择，各国央行持续增持黄金，进一步印证了市场避险需求旺盛。第二条主线是风险资产的"洼地效应"，尽管全球股票市场流动性依然充裕，但美 债收益率上 ...

Group 1 - The semiconductor sector in Hong Kong experienced a decline, with major companies like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor dropping over 4% [2] - The semiconductor index fell by 3.88%, closing at 5309.924, down 214.057 points [3] - The trading volume was 28.927 million, with a total transaction value of 2.219 billion [3] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to accelerate breakthroughs in the entire semiconductor industry chain, focusing on developing new model algorithms and high-performance computing chips [4] - The domestic chip localization rate is expected to increase from 10% in October 2021 to 18% by 2024, with AI chip penetration projected at around 30% for Chinese brands [4] - There is a significant demand for domestic alternatives in CPU, GPU, analog chips, storage chips, and automotive chips due to external restrictions and the clear guidance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4]

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the deep collaboration across the semiconductor industry chain, promoting self-innovation and supply chain security, leading to a new phase of high-quality development in China's semiconductor industry [1][5]. Group 1: Policy and Strategic Framework - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines the need for high-level technological self-reliance and the establishment of a new type of national system to promote collaborative development across key sectors, including integrated circuits and advanced materials [3]. - The plan indicates a systematic approach to address weaknesses in semiconductor equipment, materials, and design tools through collaboration among national laboratories, research universities, and leading tech enterprises [3]. Group 2: Industry Development and Innovation - The plan aims to enhance the role of enterprises in technological innovation, encouraging them to lead innovation consortia and take on national technology challenges, which will boost the capabilities of leading firms and innovative SMEs [4]. - The focus on domestic substitution is expected to evolve from "usable" to "better usable," with an emphasis on the localization of equipment and materials, particularly in advanced processes [4]. Group 3: Market Opportunities - The acceleration of strategic emerging industries such as digital economy, artificial intelligence, and smart connected vehicles will create unprecedented application scenarios and market space for domestic chips [5]. - The demand for supply chain security in wafer fabrication is anticipated to drive the localization of equipment and materials, with local companies poised to capture broader market opportunities [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The domestic computer industry is experiencing accelerated localization, driven by national strategies aimed at establishing a technology powerhouse by 2035, with R&D investment expected to exceed 3.6 trillion yuan in 2024, a 48% increase from 2020 [1][10][13] - The domestic computing power sector is entering a performance explosion phase, with significant year-on-year growth in inventory and revenue for key companies like Cambrian and Haiguang Information [3][24] - The market for domestic information technology (IT) is projected to reach 2.66 trillion yuan by 2026, with a steady push for localization across various sectors, including finance and telecommunications [2][19] Summary by Sections Section 1: National Strategy and R&D Investment - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development and technological self-reliance, with a focus on enhancing the national innovation system and increasing R&D investment [1][10][14] - China ranks first globally in high-level international journal publications and patent applications for five consecutive years [1][13] Section 2: Market Demand and Localization - The domestic IT market is witnessing a shift towards localization, with significant demand from both government and commercial sectors [2][18] - The "2+8+N" strategy is being implemented for the replacement of IT systems, with rapid progress in the financial sector [2][20] Section 3: Performance of Domestic Computing Power Companies - Cambrian reported a revenue of 1.727 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a 1333% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 567 million yuan [3][24] - Haiguang Information achieved a revenue of 9.490 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 54.65% year-on-year growth [3][24] Section 4: Key Software Companies - Key software companies such as China Software and Kingsoft have shown recovery in their performance, with significant increases in revenue and net profit in Q2 2025 [3][26] - The report highlights the importance of software in supporting the growth of the domestic computing power sector [4][30]

Group 1 - The recent market decline is viewed as a concentrated washout rather than a signal of the end of a bull market, with over 4,500 stocks closing lower [1] - The drop was influenced by external factors, including risk events in some US banks, which triggered global panic and led to passive declines in A-shares [1] - The trading structure was affected by the expiration of stock index futures, which allowed short sellers to exert downward pressure, creating a chain reaction of declines [1] Group 2 - Positive signals outweigh short-term negatives, with the central bank planning to facilitate foreign institutional investment, and a global trend towards looser monetary policy due to the Fed's slowing rate hike expectations [3] - Domestic chip manufacturers are poised to capture market share as Nvidia's high-end product presence in China diminishes, presenting an opportunity for local firms [3] - The clean energy sector is receiving policy support, particularly in offshore wind power, which enhances profit margins for companies in this space [3] Group 3 - Companies like Cambricon, despite a quarterly decline, have high order and advance payment levels, indicating secured future deliveries, suggesting that short-term financial fluctuations may not reflect fundamental issues [3] - Resource sectors may face short-term pressure due to significant declines in gold and silver prices, leading to a potential shift in funds towards growth and policy-benefiting sectors [3] - The negative sentiment from external markets is quickly dissipating, with major US indices and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index showing signs of recovery, which sets a positive emotional foundation for A-shares [3] Group 4 - The market is expected to experience a tentative downward test initially, followed by a gradual rise, with technology and high-end manufacturing likely to lead the gains [4] - The brokerage sector may also see a rebound once market stability is restored, indicating potential for recovery in this area [4] - Investors are advised to differentiate between short-term fluctuations and long-term trends, focusing on sectors supported by policies and industrial logic rather than reacting emotionally to market lows [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the critical importance of domestic chip production for China's AI ecosystem, especially in light of tightening US export controls [1][3] - Major Chinese companies like Huawei and Alibaba are increasing investments in self-developed AI chips and optimizing software to reduce reliance on foreign hardware [2][5] - The report highlights key investment targets including Cambrian, Haiguang Information, and SMIC, which are seen as pivotal in the domestic semiconductor landscape [1][6] Group 2 - The ongoing US export restrictions are accelerating the development of China's semiconductor industry, with AI innovation helping to narrow the technology gap [3][4] - Chinese tech giants are launching new AI-optimized chips, challenging global leaders, while local manufacturers are rapidly expanding capacity to meet domestic demand [3][4] - The development of a vibrant local AI ecosystem in China is characterized by close alliances between LLM manufacturers, large tech companies, and chip makers [4][5] Group 3 - Customization of chips is enhancing efficiency, with recent AI chips from Chinese companies increasingly optimized for specific tasks, despite overall performance still lagging behind Nvidia [5][6] - Cambrian and Haiguang Information are making significant progress in chip solutions for China's LLM and broader AI ecosystem, positioning them as key beneficiaries of the domestic semiconductor push [6][7] - SMIC is expected to benefit significantly from government initiatives aimed at achieving chip self-sufficiency, enhancing supply chain resilience and technological independence [7][8] Group 4 - Changdian Technology is anticipated to benefit from the growth of domestic AI chips, with its advanced packaging processes set to enter mass production by Q2 2025 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing increased volatility and differentiation, with a cautious short-term outlook but positive long-term fundamentals for the stock market [1] Domestic Macroeconomics - The macroeconomic environment is under pressure, with ongoing profitability recovery and continued liquidity easing [2] - Industrial profits saw a significant year-on-year increase of 20.4% in August, the highest growth rate since December 2023, driven by low base effects and policy changes [2] - Micro liquidity remains ample, supporting the market, while macro liquidity continues to be loose, with no immediate expectations for interest rate cuts unless external conditions change [2] Market Outlook - The current market rally is supported by long-term narratives, but the sources of incremental capital appear insufficient [3] - Key upcoming events include the Fourth Plenary Session and the China-US summit, which may boost market sentiment and create investment opportunities [3] Equity Investment - The stock market's underlying fundamentals are improving in the long term, but the short-term outlook is cautious due to declining valuation attractiveness [4] - Focus on low-value and cyclical sectors such as real estate, new energy, and high ROE large-cap companies, while being cautious of risks in strong sectors [4] - Key sectors to watch include technology, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a focus on structural opportunities [4] Fixed Income Investment - The bond market is not expected to enter a sustained bear market, with credit bonds still offering spread value [5][6] - The 10-year government bond yield rose from 1.65% to 1.86%, with a potential for further fluctuations due to market conditions [5] - Credit bonds are expected to follow market trends without independent bullish movements, but there may be some recovery potential after short-term adjustments [6] Global Asset Allocation - Uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies remains high, leading to a preference for global diversification [7] - Short-term opportunities are seen in US stocks and bonds, but macroeconomic volatility may increase [7] - Continued focus on structural opportunities in the US AI sector and real estate recovery during the interest rate cut cycle [7] Hong Kong and Other Markets - The Hong Kong market is viewed positively due to liquidity catalysts and structural opportunities, though domestic and overseas influences must be monitored [8] - There is optimism for Japan's market to emerge from deflation and enter a phase of sticky service inflation [8] - Gold is favored as a hedge against fiscal and equity market risks, with strong potential for growth [8]

Market Overview and Sector Characteristics - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.22%, with the median stock price increase of 1.07% [2] - A total of 65 stocks hit the daily limit up, an increase of 28 from the previous day, while 4 stocks hit the limit down, an increase of 2 [2] - The sectors with the most limit-up stocks included automotive parts, electric grid equipment, and chemical pharmaceuticals [2] Key Sectors and Concepts - **Automotive Parts**: 8 stocks reached the limit up, driven by policy support and accelerated automation transformation [3] - **Electric Grid Equipment**: 7 stocks reached the limit up, benefiting from new infrastructure investments and increasing electricity demand [3] - **Chemical Pharmaceuticals**: 5 stocks reached the limit up, supported by recent policy backing and recovering market demand [3] - **Robotics**: 13 stocks reached the limit up, supported by policy backing and improved industry conditions [4] - **Cloud Computing Data Centers**: 6 stocks reached the limit up, driven by policy support and growing digitalization needs [4] - **Domestic Chips**: 6 stocks reached the limit up, accelerated by domestic substitution and policy support [4] Notable Limit-Up Stocks - 16 stocks reached new highs in the past year, indicating strong market interest and upward trends [5] - 5 stocks reached historical highs, suggesting robust momentum and minimal resistance above [5] Main Capital Inflows - The top 5 stocks by net capital inflow included Sanhua Intelligent Controls (1.611 billion yuan), New Clean Energy (650 million yuan), and others [7] - The top 5 stocks by net inflow as a percentage of market value included Tengda Technology (7.18%), Rongji Software (4.47%), and others [8] Limit-Up Stock Characteristics - The stocks with the highest sealing funds included Asia-Pacific Pharmaceuticals (463 million yuan), Sanhua Intelligent Controls (311 million yuan), and others [9] - The number of stocks with consecutive limit-ups indicates strong market interest, with 58 stocks hitting their first limit-up today [10]

Group 1 - The core driver of the A-share market trend is internal factors, with external shocks only causing fluctuations [2][4] - After the policy measures implemented on September 24, 2024, the A-share market began an upward trend, with daily trading volume increasing from less than 500 billion to 3 trillion [2][4] - The two main sources of internal driving force are policy support, such as interest rate cuts and structural monetary tools, and significant capital inflow, with margin financing balances exceeding 2 trillion, a ten-year high [4][6] Group 2 - The A-share market is expected to face pressure next week, with potential stabilizing sectors identified as banks and power companies, which are considered dividend assets [6][8] - In terms of hedging, sectors like rare earths, military, and agriculture are preferred, while semiconductor stocks may have limited hedging value due to previous gains [10] - The technology sector, particularly in AI, domestic chips, and robotics, is highlighted for its high elasticity and potential for significant price movements [12][14] Group 3 - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to provide clearer policy support for technology stocks, leading to increased market speculation [13] - Despite potential short-term adjustments, the long-term trends driven by macroeconomic and industry logic remain intact, presenting opportunities for investors [16]

Group 1 - The semiconductor sector is experiencing significant gains, with the ChiNext 50 ETF rising by 3.31%, and stocks like Western Superconducting increasing over 16% [1] - OpenAI and AMD have signed a multi-billion dollar chip deal to jointly develop AI data centers based on AMD processors [1] - The domestic AI chip industry is entering a new era, with a complete industrial chain established from advanced processes to model upgrades by major companies like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent [1] Group 2 - The ChiNext 50 ETF tracks the ChiNext 50 Index, with 68.77% of its holdings in the electronics sector and 4.99% in the computer sector, aligning well with the development of AI and robotics [2] - The ETF also covers various high-tech fields such as semiconductors, medical devices, software development, and photovoltaic equipment, indicating a strong growth potential [2] - Investors optimistic about China's hard technology development are encouraged to maintain their focus on this sector [2]