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油脂油料四季报:油粕或先抑后扬,关注套利机会
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that in the 2025/26 period, the global oilseed supply will remain relatively loose, mainly due to the recovery of rapeseed and sunflower seed production and a slight increase in soybean production. The prices of oils and protein meals are expected to be weak in the early fourth - quarter, but may rise towards the end of the year if the La Nina weather is strong. [5][6][8] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a bearish view on oils and protein meals in the short - term, look for opportunities to go long on oils at the end of the year in the medium - term, and consider long - short spread trading strategies such as going long on rapeseed oil and short on palm oil, and going long on the oil - meal ratio in the medium - to long - term. [8] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Viewpoint Strategy - **Supply**: The global oilseed supply in 2025/26 will be relatively loose. Rapeseed and sunflower seed production will recover, and soybean production will slightly increase. In the US, soybean planting area decreases but with high yield; in Argentina, the planting area drops and there is a high probability of La Nina, which may lead to significant production reduction; in Brazil, the planting area increases, expected to offset the reduction from the US and Argentina. In China, soybean imports are large, palm oil imports are low, and rapeseed inventory in oil mills is at a low level. [6] - **Demand**: Global vegetable oil consumption increases annually, with a 2.5% growth in edible consumption and a 5.13% increase in industrial consumption in 2025/26. India's edible demand and the bio - fuel policies of Indonesia, the US, and Brazil are key factors. Protein meal demand is expected to decline due to the reduction of sow inventory and other factors. [7] - **Outlook and Strategies**: Oils and protein meals are expected to be weak in the early fourth - quarter. If La Nina is strong at the end of the year, oils may rise. Short - term: bearish on oils and protein meals; Medium - term: look for long - oil opportunities at the end of the year; Arbitrage: long rapeseed oil and short palm oil, long oil - meal ratio. [8] 3.2 Oil and Oilseed Market Review - **Oil Single - sided Review**: In the first three quarters of 2025, oils showed a wave - like upward trend. They were affected by various factors such as US tariff policies, bio - fuel policies, and geopolitical conflicts. [11][14][15] - **Oil Spread Review**: The spreads between different oils fluctuated throughout the year. Palm oil was strong in some periods, while rapeseed oil was relatively resistant in others, leading to changes in spreads. [19][20] - **Protein Meal Single - sided Review**: Protein meal prices were affected by factors such as USDA reports, tariff policies, and soybean import costs. They showed an overall volatile trend. [23] - **Protein Meal Spread Review**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was mainly affected by tariff policies and market supply - demand changes, with significant fluctuations in some periods. [27] 3.3 Global Oil and Oilseed Supply - Demand Analysis - **Global Oilseed Supply**: In 2025/26, global oilseed production, consumption, and ending inventory all increase, indicating a relatively loose supply. [31] - **Global Vegetable Oil Supply - Demand**: In 2025/26, global vegetable oil supply and demand both increase, but demand growth is greater than supply, and ending inventory slightly decreases. [32] - **Global Protein Meal Supply - Demand**: In 2025/26, global protein meal supply and demand both increase, with ending inventory slightly rising, showing a loose supply. [37] - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand**: In 2025/26, global soybean supply is relatively loose. US soybean production decreases, while Brazil's production increases. Argentina's production may be affected by La Nina. [40] - **Palm Oil Supply - Demand**: In 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production is similar to last year, but exports are weak and inventory is high. Indonesia's palm oil production recovers, exports increase, and inventory remains low. [90][94][98] - **Rapeseed and Sunflower Seed Supply - Demand**: In 2025/26, global rapeseed production recovers and inventory rises; global sunflower seed production increases and inventory slightly increases. [109][134] - **Oil Demand**: Global vegetable oil industrial consumption growth is expected to pick up in 2025/26. India's import demand is large, while the US bio - diesel production and consumption are low. Indonesia's bio - diesel demand increases, and Brazil's soybean oil demand rises due to the increase in blending ratio. [142][147][167] 3.4 Domestic Oil and Oilseed Supply - Demand Analysis - **Soybean Imports**: In 2025, from January to August, soybean imports increased by 4% year - on - year, mainly from South America. The proportion of US soybean imports decreased. [171] - **Soybean Inventory**: Oil mill soybean inventory is expected to be higher than the same period in previous years from October to December. [175] - **Soybean Import Cost and Profit**: As of September 29, 2025, the import cost and profit of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans vary. The purchase of Argentine soybeans is active due to good profit. [179] - **Oil Mill Operation Rate**: Since May, the oil mill operation rate has been high, and the soybean crushing volume in the first 38 weeks of 2025 increased by 5.06% year - on - year. [183] - **Palm Oil Import**: As of September 26, palm oil import losses are heavy, and the import volume is low. [190][192]
“黑土优品”借力成渝产销平台 为脱贫地区土特产注入营销新动能
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-28 14:13
Core Insights - The event "Special Products from Poverty Alleviation Areas Entering the Chengyu Region" aims to promote unique products from impoverished areas to broader markets, injecting new consumption momentum into rural revitalization [1][3] - The "Heilongjiang Black Soil Quality Products" brand showcases high-quality agricultural products and aims to connect these products with the Chengyu market, facilitating regional agricultural collaboration and rural revitalization [1][3] Group 1 - The event features a model of "exhibition and sales + production and sales docking + brand enhancement" to promote products from poverty-stricken areas [1] - Heilongjiang's "Black Soil Quality Products" brand includes 348 enterprises and 910 authorized products, covering a wide range of categories such as rice, flour, meat, eggs, dairy, and potatoes [3] - The brand aims to combine its full-chain quality control experience with the consumption needs of the Chengyu market, providing a reference for brand building and quality enhancement for products from impoverished areas [3] Group 2 - The participation in the Chengyu promotional event is a strategic move for "Black Soil Quality Products" to expand into the southwestern market and empower the industrial development of impoverished areas [3] - The brand plans to deepen cooperation with the Chengyu market through brand output and model sharing, enhancing the added value of products from impoverished areas and broadening sales channels [3] - This initiative is expected to inject strong momentum into the high-quality development of regional agriculture and contribute to increasing farmers' income [3]
蛋白四季报:弱现实中的变量
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Q3's market was a battle between weak reality and expectations of tariff cuts. Despite China halting purchases of US soybeans, the US soybean futures had some support due to strong domestic demand and optimistic expectations for Sino-US trade negotiations [3]. - It is advisable to wait for the negative factors to subside and then consider going long, while keeping an eye on the progress of South American crops and Sino-US trade negotiations [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 25年Q3行情回顾 - In July, due to cost support and concerns about long - term supply, the price once soared. Later in the month, it dropped due to Sino - US consultations and news of Argentine soybean meal imports. In August, USDA unexpectedly reduced the US soybean planting area, which provided bullish support, but strong harvest expectations and weak exports restricted the upward space. In September, the USDA report was bearish, but the US soybean futures had support from strong domestic demand and optimistic expectations for Sino - US negotiations [3][6]. 供给"微"增 - In the 25/26 season, global oilseed production is expected to be 690 million tons (up 1.39% year - on - year), with soybean production at 425 million tons (up 0.39% year - on - year), rapeseed at 90.96 million tons (up 6.1% year - on - year), and sunflower seeds at 55.1 million tons (up 5.05% year - on - year). The soybean stock - to - consumption ratio is expected to drop to 20.27% [26]. - In the September report, the US soybean planting area in the 25/26 season was increased to 81.1 million acres, the yield per unit was decreased to 53.5 bushels per acre, but it was higher than expected. The crush was increased to 2.555 billion bushels, and exports were decreased to 1.685 billion bushels, with ending stocks increased to 300 million bushels [32]. 成本支撑 - In Q3, sea freight was relatively stable. As of September 17, the sea freight from Brazil, Argentina, US Gulf, and US West to China was $36/ton, $43/ton, $56/ton, and $29/ton respectively [60]. - Brazilian farmers' and port prices rose, and farmers' profits recovered significantly. In Q3, farmers' received prices continued to rise, and domestic Brazilian growers' profits were significantly better than traders' [63][66]. 南北美大豆出口分化 - In August, Brazil exported about 7.28 million tons of soybeans, and the export plan for September was 7.06 million tons. Since May, China has basically stopped buying US soybeans. In the 24/25 season, the cumulative US soybean exports were 52.11 million tons [69][76]. 天气展望 - The current Niño - 3.4 index is - 0.2°C, and the atmospheric model shows a neutral state. Although the possibility of La Niña increases in the fourth quarter, the probability is still lower than that of a neutral state. La Niña usually affects the winter in the Northern Hemisphere and the summer in the Southern Hemisphere, mainly causing drought in southern Brazil and Argentina [95]. 饲料产量环同比增加,终端养殖产能过剩 - In July 2025, the national industrial feed production was 28.31 million tons (up 2.3% month - on - month and 5.5% year - on - year). As of August 2025, the laying hen inventory was 1.317 billion, and in January 2025, the white - feather broiler grandparent stock was 2.1457 million sets, at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years [99][103]. - In July 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.42 million, exceeding the normal level set by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs by about 3.6%. The industry's over - capacity situation has not been fundamentally reversed, and it still faces severe profit - loss pressure [111]. 平衡表推演 - The report provides a detailed balance sheet of soybean meal from January 2025 to March 2026, including data on beginning inventory, production, imports, total supply, exports, demand, total demand, ending inventory, inventory changes, stock - to - consumption ratio, and surplus [120].
【早间看点】MPOB马来毛棕榈油9月出口税上调至10%乌克兰2025年葵籽产量料不超过1400万吨-20250814
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 05:06
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, and capital flows. Key events include Malaysia's increase in the September export tax on crude palm oil, expected low sunflower seed production in Ukraine, and potential impacts of weather on US crops. [1][9][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Quotes - The closing prices and percentage changes of various futures, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude oil, US soybeans, and others, are presented. Currency exchange rates such as the US dollar index and several other currencies against the US dollar are also provided. [1] Spot Market Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different origins are also included. [2] Important Fundamental Information Weather in Production Areas - US soybean - producing states are expected to have higher - than - normal temperatures and mostly median precipitation from August 18th to 22nd. A slow - moving front in the US Midwest will bring rain and temperature changes, which may benefit some crops but also cause flooding in some areas. [5][8] International Supply - related News - Malaysia has raised the reference price and export tax of crude palm oil for September. Indonesia has saved at least $3.68 billion in foreign exchange through the use of palm - based biodiesel. Forecasts for US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales are provided. Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn export volumes for a specific period are predicted. Argentina's soybean sales data is released. Ukraine's rapeseed and sunflower seed production is expected to decline. The Baltic Dry Index has risen. [9][10][11][12] Domestic Supply and Demand - On August 13th, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased, while the trading volume of soybean meal decreased. The national oil mill operating rate declined. Price changes of various agricultural products and livestock products are reported. [14][15][16] Macro News International News - Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts in September and October are high. The US Treasury Secretary believes the Fed should cut rates. US mortgage application and oil reserve data are provided. The IEA has lowered global oil demand growth forecasts. UAE's refined oil inventory has decreased. [18][19] Domestic News - The US dollar/renminbi exchange rate has decreased (renminbi appreciation). The central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations and achieved a net withdrawal of funds. China's July financial statistics show the growth of M2, M1, and M0. [20] Capital Flows - On August 13th, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 27.391 billion yuan, with 5.129 billion yuan in commodity futures (including inflows in agricultural and chemical futures and outflows in black - series futures) and 22.262 billion yuan in stock index futures. [24]
油脂半年报:地缘冲突叠加生柴政策变动
Zi Jin Tian Feng· 2025-06-24 05:13
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - According to the USDA June report, in the 25/26 period, there will be significant increases in the production of global soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds. The export volume of soybeans will increase the most, and the crushing volume of soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds will also rise. In the 24/25 period, the stock-to-use ratios of global rapeseed and peanuts will increase, while those of soybeans and sunflower seeds will decline. Among the four major global oils and fats in the 25/26 period, the production of soybean oil, palm oil, and sunflower oil will increase significantly, with a small increase in rapeseed oil [4][8][11][15][18]. - In the 24/25 period, the global production of oils and fats will increase by 6.5 million tons to 235 million tons. Edible consumption will increase by 4.3 million tons to 164 million tons, and industrial consumption will increase by 1.02 million tons to 65.16 million tons. The total supply increment is less than the consumption increment, leading to a decline in the ending inventory and stock-to-use ratio in the 25/26 period. In the 25/26 period, the production growth rate is slightly higher than the consumption growth rate, and the industrial consumption growth rate is lower than the edible consumption growth rate [33][35][36]. - In the 2025 - 26 period, the planned rapeseed sown area in Canada will be 8.8 million hectares, slightly lower than the five - year average. The production is expected to be 18 million tons, and the supply is expected to be 19.4 million tons, a 6% year - on - year decrease. The rapeseed crushing volume is expected to decrease slightly to 11 million tons, and exports are expected to drop to a four - year low, while the inventory is expected to reach 2 million tons. In the EU, the rapeseed yield per unit area has been revised downwards again. In Australia, the rapeseed sown area is expected to decrease by 1% to 3.4 million hectares, and the production is expected to decline by 6% to 5.7 million tons. The yield per unit area is revised down to 1.69 tons per hectare. In the 25/26 period, the rapeseed production in Russia will be 4.5 - 4.7 million tons, and in Ukraine, it will drop from 3.7 million tons to 3.4 million tons. The total production of rapeseed in the EU, Canada, Australia, Russia, and Ukraine will reach 50.02 million tons, slightly higher than that in 2024 [41][42][46][50][55]. - The production of Malaysian palm oil is slightly higher than expected, with increases in Sarawak, Sabah, and Peninsular Malaysia. The export in May exceeded expectations. The production of Indonesian palm oil in March increased by 16.02% month - on - month, and exports increased by 2.68% month - on - month. In March, Indonesia started implementing the B40 biodiesel policy, and the palm oil consumption reached a record high for the same period. As of April 24, the biodiesel consumption in Indonesia this year was 4.44 billion liters. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources requires the implementation of B50 biodiesel in early 2026, but there is a need to increase production capacity [61][66][67][72]. - The soybean - palm oil price spread in India first declined and then rebounded. The soybean crushing profit in South America has deteriorated, and the export of South American soybean oil will significantly decrease after July. The front - end trading of palm oil supply pressure is basically over, and the subsequent rebound amplitude will be determined by the degree of demand improvement and crude oil prices [97][201]. - The actual domestic production capacity of the US soybean crushing industry has increased from about 2.23 billion bushels per year in early 2023 to about 2.55 billion bushels per year in early 2025, a 14% increase. If the unannounced expansion plans are realized, the total production will increase to over 2.78 billion bushels per year by 2030. The USDA June report shows that the US soybean crushing volume in the 24/25 period is 2.42 billion bushels, and in the 25/26 period, it is 2.49 billion bushels [161]. - Due to the geopolitical conflict, the strength of US crude oil has driven up the price of oils and fats. The increase in the production of new - crop rapeseed globally in the 25/26 period is limited, and the domestic rapeseed oil in the near - term remains strong. The South American soybean crushing profit has deteriorated, and the export of South American soybean oil will decline significantly after July. If the US biodiesel RVO is lower than expected, it is advisable to buy on dips after the correction of domestic oils and fats. After September, as the new - crop rapeseed and sunflower oil are listed, the price of oils and fats may enter a weak and volatile state [201]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oilseeds - **Production**: In the 25/26 period, the production of global soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds will increase significantly. In the 24/25 period, the stock - to - use ratios of global rapeseed and peanuts will increase, while those of soybeans and sunflower seeds will decline [4][15]. - **Export**: In the 25/26 period, the export volume of soybeans will increase the most [8]. - **Crushing**: In the 25/26 period, the crushing volume of global soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds will increase [11]. Oils and Fats - **Production**: In the 24/25 period, the global production of oils and fats will increase by 6.5 million tons to 235 million tons. In the 25/26 period, the production of soybean oil, palm oil, and sunflower oil will increase significantly, with a small increase in rapeseed oil [18][33]. - **Consumption**: Edible consumption will increase by 4.3 million tons to 164 million tons, and industrial consumption will increase by 1.02 million tons to 65.16 million tons in the 24/25 period. The industrial consumption growth rate is lower than the edible consumption growth rate in the 25/26 period [33][36]. - **Inventory and Stock - to - Use Ratio**: The total supply increment is less than the consumption increment, leading to a decline in the ending inventory and stock - to - use ratio in the 25/26 period [33]. Rapeseed - **Canada**: In the 2025 - 26 period, the planned rapeseed sown area will be 8.8 million hectares, slightly lower than the five - year average. The production is expected to be 18 million tons, and the supply is expected to be 19.4 million tons, a 6% year - on - year decrease. The crushing volume is expected to decrease slightly to 11 million tons, exports are expected to drop to a four - year low, and the inventory is expected to reach 2 million tons [41]. - **EU**: The rapeseed yield per unit area has been revised downwards again [42]. - **Australia**: The rapeseed sown area is expected to decrease by 1% to 3.4 million hectares, and the production is expected to decline by 6% to 5.7 million tons. The yield per unit area is revised down to 1.69 tons per hectare [46][50]. - **Russia and Ukraine**: In the 25/26 period, the rapeseed production in Russia will be 4.5 - 4.7 million tons, and in Ukraine, it will drop from 3.7 million tons to 3.4 million tons [55]. Palm Oil - **Malaysia**: The production is slightly higher than expected, with increases in Sarawak, Sabah, and Peninsular Malaysia. The export in May exceeded expectations [61]. - **Indonesia**: The production in March increased by 16.02% month - on - month, and exports increased by 2.68% month - on - month. In March, Indonesia started implementing the B40 biodiesel policy, and the palm oil consumption reached a record high for the same period [66][67]. India The soybean - palm oil price spread first declined and then rebounded [97]. US - **Soybean Crushing**: The actual domestic production capacity of the soybean crushing industry has increased from about 2.23 billion bushels per year in early 2023 to about 2.55 billion bushels per year in early 2025, a 14% increase. The USDA June report shows that the US soybean crushing volume in the 24/25 period is 2.42 billion bushels, and in the 25/26 period, it is 2.49 billion bushels [161]. - **Biodiesel**: The US biodiesel RVO is still in the proposal stage. The final RVO quantity may be lower than the proposal. Whether imported raw materials are used or not, the consumption of US soybean oil will increase, but the export supply of US soybean oil to the world will decrease [201]. Domestic Oils and Fats Due to the geopolitical conflict, the strength of US crude oil has driven up the price of oils and fats. The increase in the production of new - crop rapeseed globally in the 25/26 period is limited, and the domestic rapeseed oil in the near - term remains strong. If the US biodiesel RVO is lower than expected, it is advisable to buy on dips after the correction of domestic oils and fats. After September, as the new - crop rapeseed and sunflower oil are listed, the price of oils and fats may enter a weak and volatile state [201].
2025年菜系期货半年度行情展望:政策的不确定扰动全球菜系需求
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 12:12
Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The pricing of new international rapeseed crops in the 2025/26 season is expected to be lower than that of the old crops in the 2024/25 season. - In China, the inventories of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are expected to decline in Q3 2025, and the supply is theoretically expected to improve in Q4. - It is recommended to focus on the long - short spread opportunities of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in Q3, and consider short - side allocation of rapeseed products in the oilseeds and oils sector in Q4 [2]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 H1 Review of Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil Futures - Rapeseed meal: Its trend was basically consistent with that of soybean meal. Supply concerns made rapeseed meal futures stronger than soybean meal futures at certain stages. In H1 2025, it first rose due to factors like downstream pre - holiday stocking and supply concerns, and then fell due to the pressure of large soybean arrivals after April [6]. - Rapeseed oil: In the first stage (January - early March 2025), it was bearish due to expected sufficient supply. In the second stage (early March - June 2025), it became a bullish position in the three major oils due to supply tightening expectations [7][8]. 2. Analysis of Main Supply - Demand Contradictions of Rapeseed Products 2.1 Global Rapeseed: Production Expected to Recover, but Limited Increase in Effective Supply of Major Exporters and Unoptimistic International Trade Demand - The global production of rapeseed and sunflower seeds in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase significantly. However, the effective supply of rapeseed from major exporters may have a limited year - on - year increase. The international trade demand for rapeseed products is not optimistic due to factors such as the recovery of EU production, China's uncertain import policy for Canadian rapeseed products, and the uncertain US biodiesel policy [10][17]. 2.2 EU Rapeseed: Supply to Recover Significantly, Expected Reduction in Import Demand - The production of rapeseed and sunflower seeds in the EU in the 2025/26 season is expected to recover significantly. The increase in planting area offsets the impact of less - than - ideal yields. The EU's import demand for rapeseed is expected to decrease as local production recovers [18][20]. 2.3 Canadian Rapeseed: Awaiting Yield Determination, Unoptimistic Demand Outlook - The planting area and yield of Canadian rapeseed in the 2025/26 season are difficult to determine currently. The demand for Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed oil exports is expected to weaken due to China's policy changes, the EU's reduced import demand, and the uncertain US biodiesel policy [28][45]. 2.4 China's Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil Supply - Demand: High Uncertainty in H2 Supply, Expected Inventory Decline in Q3 - The supply of imported rapeseed in H2 2025 may be tight first and then loosen. The consumption of rapeseed oil is not expected to increase, and the inventory is expected to decline in Q3. The price and consumption of rapeseed meal are affected by soybean meal, and the inventory is also expected to decline in Q3 [46][52]. 3. Summary of Main Contradictions of Rapeseed and Strategy Outlook - International rapeseed products: In 6 - 8 months, prices may be supported. After new crops are listed, prices will face downward pressure due to supply - demand imbalances. - China's rapeseed products: The supply situation in H2 2025, especially Q4, is unclear. Inventories are expected to decline in Q3, and supply may increase in Q4, but it depends on Sino - Canadian relations and imports from non - Canadian regions. - It is recommended to focus on long - short spread opportunities in Q3 and short - side allocation opportunities in Q4 [54][56].
油脂:两报告落地,国内盘面反应平淡
Zi Jin Tian Feng· 2025-05-15 08:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the palm oil market and related industries, covering aspects such as production, price, weather, and profit. It presents data on international palm oil production, prices of various oils, import and processing profits, weather conditions in palm oil - producing regions, and biodiesel processing and blending profits, as well as the demand - side situation of the oil market [4][8][11][128]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil Production and Market Data - MPOB data shows that in the 4th period, the palm oil production situation includes aspects such as the production of smallholders and large - scale plantations, with a 14% increase in production in certain areas compared to the previous period, and a 20% increase in the 4th period compared to the 3rd period in some regions [4]. - The prices of international soybeans from different origins (Ukraine, Brazil, Germany, etc.) and various international oils (Russian sunflower oil, Indonesian CPO, etc.) are presented, with price fluctuations over different time points from March to May 2025 [8][12]. - The FOB price spreads of different oils, such as the price spreads between Malaysian and Indonesian RBD Olein, and between Argentine soybean oil and Indonesian CPO, are analyzed [15][17]. 3.2 Import and Processing Profits - The palm oil on - the - plate profit for different shipping dates (from October to May) is presented, showing profit fluctuations over time [30]. - The import and processing profits of Brazilian soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed are also analyzed, with historical data from 2021 - 2025 and the average value from 2021 - 2024 [31]. 3.3 Weather Conditions in Palm Oil - Producing Regions - Weather data for multiple palm oil - producing regions in Malaysia (Sabah, Sarawak, Pahang, Johor) and other areas (Kalimantan, Sumatra, Jambi, Riau) are provided, including soil moisture, average weekly temperature, daily rainfall, and rainfall and temperature forecasts [38][51][65]. 3.4 Biodiesel - The processing profit and blending profit of US biodiesel are analyzed, with historical data from 2007 - 2025 and the average value from 2007 - 2024 (for processing profit) and 2021 - 2024 (for blending profit) [129][131]. 3.5 Demand - Side Situation - The weekly trading volume of different oils (palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean oil) is presented, showing the trading volume changes from April 15 to May 9, 2025 [141][142].