1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, and capital flows. Key events include Malaysia's increase in the September export tax on crude palm oil, expected low sunflower seed production in Ukraine, and potential impacts of weather on US crops. [1][9][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Quotes - The closing prices and percentage changes of various futures, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude oil, US soybeans, and others, are presented. Currency exchange rates such as the US dollar index and several other currencies against the US dollar are also provided. [1] Spot Market Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different origins are also included. [2] Important Fundamental Information Weather in Production Areas - US soybean - producing states are expected to have higher - than - normal temperatures and mostly median precipitation from August 18th to 22nd. A slow - moving front in the US Midwest will bring rain and temperature changes, which may benefit some crops but also cause flooding in some areas. [5][8] International Supply - related News - Malaysia has raised the reference price and export tax of crude palm oil for September. Indonesia has saved at least $3.68 billion in foreign exchange through the use of palm - based biodiesel. Forecasts for US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales are provided. Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn export volumes for a specific period are predicted. Argentina's soybean sales data is released. Ukraine's rapeseed and sunflower seed production is expected to decline. The Baltic Dry Index has risen. [9][10][11][12] Domestic Supply and Demand - On August 13th, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased, while the trading volume of soybean meal decreased. The national oil mill operating rate declined. Price changes of various agricultural products and livestock products are reported. [14][15][16] Macro News International News - Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts in September and October are high. The US Treasury Secretary believes the Fed should cut rates. US mortgage application and oil reserve data are provided. The IEA has lowered global oil demand growth forecasts. UAE's refined oil inventory has decreased. [18][19] Domestic News - The US dollar/renminbi exchange rate has decreased (renminbi appreciation). The central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations and achieved a net withdrawal of funds. China's July financial statistics show the growth of M2, M1, and M0. [20] Capital Flows - On August 13th, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 27.391 billion yuan, with 5.129 billion yuan in commodity futures (including inflows in agricultural and chemical futures and outflows in black - series futures) and 22.262 billion yuan in stock index futures. [24]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - According to the USDA June report, in the 25/26 period, there will be significant increases in the production of global soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds. The export volume of soybeans will increase the most, and the crushing volume of soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds will also rise. In the 24/25 period, the stock-to-use ratios of global rapeseed and peanuts will increase, while those of soybeans and sunflower seeds will decline. Among the four major global oils and fats in the 25/26 period, the production of soybean oil, palm oil, and sunflower oil will increase significantly, with a small increase in rapeseed oil [4][8][11][15][18]. - In the 24/25 period, the global production of oils and fats will increase by 6.5 million tons to 235 million tons. Edible consumption will increase by 4.3 million tons to 164 million tons, and industrial consumption will increase by 1.02 million tons to 65.16 million tons. The total supply increment is less than the consumption increment, leading to a decline in the ending inventory and stock-to-use ratio in the 25/26 period. In the 25/26 period, the production growth rate is slightly higher than the consumption growth rate, and the industrial consumption growth rate is lower than the edible consumption growth rate [33][35][36]. - In the 2025 - 26 period, the planned rapeseed sown area in Canada will be 8.8 million hectares, slightly lower than the five - year average. The production is expected to be 18 million tons, and the supply is expected to be 19.4 million tons, a 6% year - on - year decrease. The rapeseed crushing volume is expected to decrease slightly to 11 million tons, and exports are expected to drop to a four - year low, while the inventory is expected to reach 2 million tons. In the EU, the rapeseed yield per unit area has been revised downwards again. In Australia, the rapeseed sown area is expected to decrease by 1% to 3.4 million hectares, and the production is expected to decline by 6% to 5.7 million tons. The yield per unit area is revised down to 1.69 tons per hectare. In the 25/26 period, the rapeseed production in Russia will be 4.5 - 4.7 million tons, and in Ukraine, it will drop from 3.7 million tons to 3.4 million tons. The total production of rapeseed in the EU, Canada, Australia, Russia, and Ukraine will reach 50.02 million tons, slightly higher than that in 2024 [41][42][46][50][55]. - The production of Malaysian palm oil is slightly higher than expected, with increases in Sarawak, Sabah, and Peninsular Malaysia. The export in May exceeded expectations. The production of Indonesian palm oil in March increased by 16.02% month - on - month, and exports increased by 2.68% month - on - month. In March, Indonesia started implementing the B40 biodiesel policy, and the palm oil consumption reached a record high for the same period. As of April 24, the biodiesel consumption in Indonesia this year was 4.44 billion liters. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources requires the implementation of B50 biodiesel in early 2026, but there is a need to increase production capacity [61][66][67][72]. - The soybean - palm oil price spread in India first declined and then rebounded. The soybean crushing profit in South America has deteriorated, and the export of South American soybean oil will significantly decrease after July. The front - end trading of palm oil supply pressure is basically over, and the subsequent rebound amplitude will be determined by the degree of demand improvement and crude oil prices [97][201]. - The actual domestic production capacity of the US soybean crushing industry has increased from about 2.23 billion bushels per year in early 2023 to about 2.55 billion bushels per year in early 2025, a 14% increase. If the unannounced expansion plans are realized, the total production will increase to over 2.78 billion bushels per year by 2030. The USDA June report shows that the US soybean crushing volume in the 24/25 period is 2.42 billion bushels, and in the 25/26 period, it is 2.49 billion bushels [161]. - Due to the geopolitical conflict, the strength of US crude oil has driven up the price of oils and fats. The increase in the production of new - crop rapeseed globally in the 25/26 period is limited, and the domestic rapeseed oil in the near - term remains strong. The South American soybean crushing profit has deteriorated, and the export of South American soybean oil will decline significantly after July. If the US biodiesel RVO is lower than expected, it is advisable to buy on dips after the correction of domestic oils and fats. After September, as the new - crop rapeseed and sunflower oil are listed, the price of oils and fats may enter a weak and volatile state [201]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oilseeds - **Production**: In the 25/26 period, the production of global soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds will increase significantly. In the 24/25 period, the stock - to - use ratios of global rapeseed and peanuts will increase, while those of soybeans and sunflower seeds will decline [4][15]. - **Export**: In the 25/26 period, the export volume of soybeans will increase the most [8]. - **Crushing**: In the 25/26 period, the crushing volume of global soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds will increase [11]. Oils and Fats - **Production**: In the 24/25 period, the global production of oils and fats will increase by 6.5 million tons to 235 million tons. In the 25/26 period, the production of soybean oil, palm oil, and sunflower oil will increase significantly, with a small increase in rapeseed oil [18][33]. - **Consumption**: Edible consumption will increase by 4.3 million tons to 164 million tons, and industrial consumption will increase by 1.02 million tons to 65.16 million tons in the 24/25 period. The industrial consumption growth rate is lower than the edible consumption growth rate in the 25/26 period [33][36]. - **Inventory and Stock - to - Use Ratio**: The total supply increment is less than the consumption increment, leading to a decline in the ending inventory and stock - to - use ratio in the 25/26 period [33]. Rapeseed - **Canada**: In the 2025 - 26 period, the planned rapeseed sown area will be 8.8 million hectares, slightly lower than the five - year average. The production is expected to be 18 million tons, and the supply is expected to be 19.4 million tons, a 6% year - on - year decrease. The crushing volume is expected to decrease slightly to 11 million tons, exports are expected to drop to a four - year low, and the inventory is expected to reach 2 million tons [41]. - **EU**: The rapeseed yield per unit area has been revised downwards again [42]. - **Australia**: The rapeseed sown area is expected to decrease by 1% to 3.4 million hectares, and the production is expected to decline by 6% to 5.7 million tons. The yield per unit area is revised down to 1.69 tons per hectare [46][50]. - **Russia and Ukraine**: In the 25/26 period, the rapeseed production in Russia will be 4.5 - 4.7 million tons, and in Ukraine, it will drop from 3.7 million tons to 3.4 million tons [55]. Palm Oil - **Malaysia**: The production is slightly higher than expected, with increases in Sarawak, Sabah, and Peninsular Malaysia. The export in May exceeded expectations [61]. - **Indonesia**: The production in March increased by 16.02% month - on - month, and exports increased by 2.68% month - on - month. In March, Indonesia started implementing the B40 biodiesel policy, and the palm oil consumption reached a record high for the same period [66][67]. India The soybean - palm oil price spread first declined and then rebounded [97]. US - **Soybean Crushing**: The actual domestic production capacity of the soybean crushing industry has increased from about 2.23 billion bushels per year in early 2023 to about 2.55 billion bushels per year in early 2025, a 14% increase. The USDA June report shows that the US soybean crushing volume in the 24/25 period is 2.42 billion bushels, and in the 25/26 period, it is 2.49 billion bushels [161]. - **Biodiesel**: The US biodiesel RVO is still in the proposal stage. The final RVO quantity may be lower than the proposal. Whether imported raw materials are used or not, the consumption of US soybean oil will increase, but the export supply of US soybean oil to the world will decrease [201]. Domestic Oils and Fats Due to the geopolitical conflict, the strength of US crude oil has driven up the price of oils and fats. The increase in the production of new - crop rapeseed globally in the 25/26 period is limited, and the domestic rapeseed oil in the near - term remains strong. If the US biodiesel RVO is lower than expected, it is advisable to buy on dips after the correction of domestic oils and fats. After September, as the new - crop rapeseed and sunflower oil are listed, the price of oils and fats may enter a weak and volatile state [201].

2025 年 6 月 23 日 政策的不确定扰动全球菜系需求 ---2025 年菜系期货半年度行情展望 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 报告导读： 我们的观点：国际菜籽 2025/26 年度新作上市后的定价预计比 2024/25 年度的旧作定价要低。国内菜油和菜粕预计三 季度降库，四季度理论上供应将有所改善。建议三季度关注菜油、菜粕的正套的机会，四季度菜系商品目前看可能在 油脂油料板块中偏空配。 我们的逻辑： 国际菜籽供需：预计 25/26 年度全球菜籽和葵籽产量将明显回升，但是主要出口国：加拿大、澳大利亚、俄罗斯和乌 克兰 25/26 年度菜籽的有效供应（期初库存+产量）的同比增幅可能不大，所以在 6-8 月份，在加拿大和俄乌的菜籽 未定产的情况下，国际菜籽价格仍将偏强。由于欧盟菜籽和葵籽产量大幅回升、中国对加拿大菜系商品的进口政策的 不确定性、以及美国生物柴油政策的不确定性，使得 2025 年下半年全球菜系商品的国际贸易需求并不乐观，所以， 在欧盟、俄乌和加拿大新作菜籽陆续上市后，国际菜系商品或面临较大的供应压力。 中国菜系商品供需：受中加经贸关系的不确定性和新增 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the palm oil market and related industries, covering aspects such as production, price, weather, and profit. It presents data on international palm oil production, prices of various oils, import and processing profits, weather conditions in palm oil - producing regions, and biodiesel processing and blending profits, as well as the demand - side situation of the oil market [4][8][11][128]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil Production and Market Data - MPOB data shows that in the 4th period, the palm oil production situation includes aspects such as the production of smallholders and large - scale plantations, with a 14% increase in production in certain areas compared to the previous period, and a 20% increase in the 4th period compared to the 3rd period in some regions [4]. - The prices of international soybeans from different origins (Ukraine, Brazil, Germany, etc.) and various international oils (Russian sunflower oil, Indonesian CPO, etc.) are presented, with price fluctuations over different time points from March to May 2025 [8][12]. - The FOB price spreads of different oils, such as the price spreads between Malaysian and Indonesian RBD Olein, and between Argentine soybean oil and Indonesian CPO, are analyzed [15][17]. 3.2 Import and Processing Profits - The palm oil on - the - plate profit for different shipping dates (from October to May) is presented, showing profit fluctuations over time [30]. - The import and processing profits of Brazilian soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed are also analyzed, with historical data from 2021 - 2025 and the average value from 2021 - 2024 [31]. 3.3 Weather Conditions in Palm Oil - Producing Regions - Weather data for multiple palm oil - producing regions in Malaysia (Sabah, Sarawak, Pahang, Johor) and other areas (Kalimantan, Sumatra, Jambi, Riau) are provided, including soil moisture, average weekly temperature, daily rainfall, and rainfall and temperature forecasts [38][51][65]. 3.4 Biodiesel - The processing profit and blending profit of US biodiesel are analyzed, with historical data from 2007 - 2025 and the average value from 2007 - 2024 (for processing profit) and 2021 - 2024 (for blending profit) [129][131]. 3.5 Demand - Side Situation - The weekly trading volume of different oils (palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean oil) is presented, showing the trading volume changes from April 15 to May 9, 2025 [141][142].