策 略 研 究 融资资金重回流入，公募基金发行提速 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) 投资者微观行为洞察手册·10 月第 3 期 本报告导读： 本期市场成交热度有所下降，资金层面上偏股基金发行边际抬升，融资资金流入加 速，而外资资金小幅流出 A 股与港股。 投资要点： 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.10.27 | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 郭胤含(分析师) | | | 021-38031691 | | | guoyinhan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524100001 | | | 田开轩(分析师) | | | 021-38038673 | | | tiankaixuan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080006 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 | 成交活跃度下降，创业板指领涨 2025.10.25 | | --- | | 电子产业链景气延续，耐用品需求透支 | | 2025 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market has seen a significant inflow of incremental funds in July and August, driven by various sources including financing, private equity, and foreign investment, indicating a robust market activity [1][9]. Financing Funds - In August, the net inflow of financing funds reached 2744.45 billion yuan, doubling from July's 1328.79 billion yuan, marking a new peak [2][3]. - The trend of financing funds has shifted from weakness to strength since early 2025, with significant net inflows observed in the last few months [2]. Foreign Investment - Foreign capital showed remarkable activity in August, with the average monthly trading volume of the Stock Connect reaching 2942.27 billion yuan, a 45.8% increase from July [4][6]. - The trading volume continued to rise in September, reaching 3206.50 billion yuan, indicating sustained foreign interest in the A-share market [4][6]. Private Equity Funds - The newly registered scale of private equity funds in July was 792.81 billion yuan, significantly surpassing June's 299.83 billion yuan and setting a new record since 2022 [7][8]. - The management scale of private equity funds also saw a substantial increase, with an addition of 3254 billion yuan in July [7]. Individual Investors - The number of new individual investors has significantly increased in August, reflecting a growing enthusiasm for market participation [9][10]. - The increase in individual investor accounts is positively correlated with the market's profitability, contributing to a cycle of increased market activity [9]. Household Savings - As of August 2025, household savings have exceeded 161 trillion yuan, creating a substantial pool of funds waiting to enter the market [12]. - The growth rate of household savings has slowed since March 2025, while the A-share market's profitability is becoming more attractive, encouraging a shift of funds from savings to equities [12].

Market Overview - The current market is experiencing a positive feedback loop of incremental capital inflow, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the previously mentioned resistance level of 3450 points, indicating a shift towards a bull market phase [5][10]. - Financing funds are showing a continuous net inflow, particularly favoring technology and growth sectors, with a financing balance reaching 1.86 trillion yuan [10][11]. - Industry and thematic ETFs are increasingly popular, reflecting a significant trend in the market this year, with continuous net inflows observed [12][13]. Financing and Capital Flow - The net inflow of financing funds amounted to 225.35 billion yuan, with a notable preference for sectors such as automotive, pharmaceuticals, and computing [10][11]. - The total net inflow for ETFs was 8.28 billion yuan, indicating a growing interest in these investment vehicles [4][36]. - The market is witnessing a slight net inflow of capital, with the financing balance increasing and the net buying amount for financing funds expanding significantly [5][36]. Northbound Capital - Northbound capital continued its net inflow trend in the second quarter, with an estimated net inflow of 59.1 billion yuan, primarily directed towards sectors like semiconductors, batteries, and securities [19][23]. - As of the end of June, northbound capital held a total of 2.29 trillion yuan in A-shares, reflecting a stable investment interest from foreign investors [19][23]. Market Sentiment and Activity - Market sentiment has improved, with the VIX index declining, indicating a rise in risk appetite among investors [47]. - The trading activity of financing funds has increased, with the proportion of financing transactions in the A-share market rising to 10.1% [45][46]. - The focus of trading has shifted towards essential consumer goods, finance, and the CSI 500 index, with significant trading volumes observed in these sectors [50].

Market Pricing Status - The market trading heat has slightly declined, with a decrease in the intensity of capital inflow from Guotai Haitong, and the average daily trading volume of the entire A-share market has decreased from 1.5 trillion to 1.4 trillion yuan [4][7] - The proportion of stocks that increased in value has dropped to 53.34%, and the median weekly return for A-share stocks has decreased to 0.3% [4][9] - The trading concentration has decreased, with only three industries maintaining a turnover rate above the historical 90th percentile, down from seven [4][20] A-share Liquidity Tracking - Foreign capital has turned to inflow, while ETF funds have seen an increase in outflow [21][27] - The net inflow of foreign capital into A-shares was 2.9 million USD as of July 4, with the northbound trading proportion dropping to 10.5% [4][41] - The net buy of financing funds was 189 billion yuan, with the total margin balance rising to 1.9 trillion yuan [4][27] A-share Industry Allocation - There is a significant divergence in funding within the electric power equipment industry, with foreign capital flowing out while financing funds flowed in [4][19] - The top net inflows from financing funds were in electric power equipment (+29.7 billion yuan) and non-ferrous metals (+24.3 billion yuan), while oil and petrochemicals (-3.0 billion yuan) and construction decoration (-0.8 billion yuan) saw net outflows [4][19] - The ETF inflows were concentrated in non-bank financials (+7.7 billion yuan) and electronics (+5.3 billion yuan), while the pharmaceutical and banking sectors saw significant outflows [4][19] Hong Kong and Global Fund Flow - The net inflow of southbound funds has decreased to 169.3 billion yuan, which is at the 95th percentile since 2022 [4][19] - Global foreign capital has returned to the US and Chinese markets, with the US seeing a net inflow of 1.8 billion USD and China 1.04 billion USD [4][19]