可谁能想到，海关数据一公布，不仅没有断供，反而出现了"井喷"。2025年11月，中国对日本的稀土磁 铁出口量竟然飙升到了304吨。 新年刚刚开始，日本传来3个重要消息，非常引人关注，转过年来，日本将走向何方呢？ 很明显，高市早苗有点慌了，我们大胆预测，今年她要下台了，为什么这么说呢？ 首先让人看不懂的，是一组完全反常的数据。 整个国际市场原本都在屏住呼吸，等着看中国对日本祭出"稀土制裁"的杀招，毕竟高市早苗去年11月7 日那番极具挑衅的言论言犹在耳。 这个数字意味着什么？不仅比10月份暴涨了34.7%，甚至直接创下了全年的最高纪录。 这种时候，一定有人会觉得脑子转不过弯来：这不是在"资敌"吗？哪怕是看一眼同期的数据，中国对美 国的稀土出口可是实打实下降了11.4%。 一升一降之间，难道是我们把货卖给日本，让日本人转手去填美国的窟窿？或者是因为不敢得罪日本而 故意放水？ 如果你这么想，那就太天真了。这背后恰恰是一场最高级别的心理博弈和战略绞索。 真相往往隐藏在反直觉的表象之下。中国对日本的策略，从来不是只有"断供"这一张牌，还有一种更为 窒息的打法叫"温水煮青蛙"。 没错，我们确实还在卖，但这只局限于民用的轻稀 ...

欢迎扫描下方二维码关注： ↑ 点击上方 " 蓝色柳林财税室 " 关注我们 未经加工处理的 - 经过破碎、选研 按照煤原 (研石直径50mm →矿征收资 以上)后的 源税 经过筛选分类后 的筛选煤、低热 开采的 值煤 煤炭 通过洗选、 H 选、风选等物理 按照煤选 化学工艺去灰去 → 矿产品征 研后生产的精 收资源 煤、中煤、煤泥 等 2 经过洗选等初 加工过程产出 的矿岩型稀土 按照轻稀 精矿（包括氟 _土选矿产 开采的- 碳饰矿精矿、 品征收资 轻稀土 独居石精矿以 源税 原矿 及 混 合 型 稀 土 精矿等) B 通过离子交换原 理等工艺生产的 稀土料液、碳酸 按照中重 稀土、草酸稀土 稀土选矿 开采的 产品征收 通过灼烧、氧化 离子型 资源税 等工艺生产的混 稀土原矿 合稀土氧化物 4 通过蒸发结晶 法、沉淀法、溶 剂萃取法、离子 按照盐类 交换法、膜分离 →选矿产品 开采的一 法等物理工艺生 征收资源 盐湖卤水 产的氯化盐、硫 税 盐井卤水 酸盐、硝酸盐等 U 2 6 6 6 5 5 关于计税依据 1 纳税人销售免征增值税的应税产 品,或将应税产品自用于连续生产免 征增值税的非应税产品,以不包括增 值 ...

Group 1 - The copper industry is experiencing a significant price increase driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and an improving supply-demand balance, indicating a potential super cycle for copper [1] - In the aluminum sector, macroeconomic sentiment is favorable, with leading aluminum processing companies reporting a slight week-on-week increase in operating rates by 0.3% to 62.3%, benefiting from year-end demand driven by automotive policy changes [1] - The lithium sector shows strong demand, but seasonal supply declines have led to a decrease in lithium carbonate production, with inventory levels also decreasing; the cobalt sector faces tight upstream raw material supplies and higher prices [1] Group 2 - Precious metals are seeing price increases due to optimistic liquidity expectations, with silver experiencing significant gains due to tight balances and low inventory levels [1] - The price trends for light and heavy rare earths are diverging, with light rare earths benefiting from both policy and demand, while heavy rare earths are experiencing price declines due to marginally eased supply [1] - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which includes listed companies involved in the mining and processing of precious and industrial metals, reflecting the overall performance of the non-ferrous mining industry [1]

《 人民日报 》（ 2025年12月01日 18 版） (责编：岳弘彬、牛镛) 关注公众号：人民网财经 本报电 近日，财政部、国家税务总局联合发布公告，明确了资源税有关政策执行口径，自2025年12月1 日起施行。公告主要从9个方面明确了对资源税有关政策和征管问题的执行口径，包括不缴纳资源税的 情形、部分应税产品的适用税目和征税对象、特殊情形下应税产品的计税依据、关联交易价格明显偏低 的正当理由、自用连续生产应税产品定义、减免税管理规定和计算方法、不同结算方式下资源税的纳税 义务发生时间等。在资源税征税对象方面，公告对实际征管中征纳双方争议较为集中的煤炭原矿、选矿 产品、盐类选矿产品和轻稀土、中重稀土等重要战略资源原矿、选矿产品的概念定义，作了进一步的明 确和细化。明确资源税有关政策执行口径，有利于进一步消除地区间资源税法的执行差异，避免因政策 理解偏差导致的征管争议，为税务部门和纳税人提供了更为清晰的操作指引。 （王 观） ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance has issued a notice clarifying the execution standards for resource tax policies, specifically regarding the taxation of various mineral products, including light and heavy rare earths, condensate oil, and other mineral resources [1][2]. Taxation Policy - Taxpayers extracting light rare earth ores that undergo initial processing to produce mineral-type rare earth concentrates will be taxed according to light rare earth mining products [6]. - Taxpayers extracting ion-type rare earth ores and producing rare earth solutions, carbonates, and oxalates through ion exchange and other processes will be taxed according to medium and heavy rare earth mining products [6]. - Condensate oil extracted from gas fields will be taxed under the crude oil tax category [3][4]. Exemptions and Special Cases - Certain entities, such as administrative and judicial bodies, are exempt from paying resource tax on confiscated taxable products [2]. - Construction projects extracting sand, clay, and other minerals for direct use in the project are also exempt from resource tax [2]. Tax Calculation Basis - The tax basis for resource tax will be determined based on the sales amount excluding VAT for taxable products sold or self-used in continuous production of non-taxable products [7][8]. Related Transactions - If a taxpayer sells taxable products to an affiliated unit at a price significantly lower than the price charged to non-affiliated units without justification, tax authorities may adjust the taxable sales amount accordingly [9][10]. Implementation Timeline - The new tax policies will take effect on December 1, 2025, and will apply to previously unprocessed matters according to the new regulations [18].

Core Insights - The approval of a $465 million loan by the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to Brazilian rare earth mining company Serra Verde signifies a strategic move to challenge China's long-standing dominance in the rare earth market [1][4] - The focus is on heavy rare earth elements, which are critical for high-tech applications and defense industries, rather than total production volume [3][4] Group 1: Strategic Implications - The DFC's funding is not merely a financial transaction but serves as a strategic endorsement, positioning Serra Verde within the Western supply chain security strategy [6] - This loan provides Serra Verde with a "strategic guarantee," signaling to global buyers that purchasing from them aligns with Western geopolitical interests [6][7] - The U.S. government has established a price floor for rare earths, which supports the pricing strategy for Serra Verde and other Western suppliers [7] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The rarity and complexity of extracting heavy rare earths, particularly from ion-adsorption type ores, create significant barriers for competitors [3][4] - The DFC's investment aims to disrupt China's dual advantage of resource and technology in the rare earth sector, specifically targeting the heavy rare earth separation process [4][9] - The current production capacity of Serra Verde, at 6,500 tons per year, is insufficient to significantly impact global pricing power without additional support from other resource-rich countries [9] Group 3: Challenges Ahead - The extraction and refining of heavy rare earths face environmental and technical challenges, which may lead to higher production costs for Western suppliers [7][9] - The success of this strategic initiative depends on the ability to create a robust alternative supply chain that includes contributions from other countries like Vietnam and Australia [9] - The ongoing geopolitical struggle for resource control indicates that the competition is not merely about reserves but involves a complex interplay of technology, capital, and geopolitical will [9]

Core Viewpoint - China announced a one-year suspension of its rare earth export control policy, coinciding with the U.S. also pausing related measures, leading to optimism in Western media about reducing dependence on Chinese rare earths, which is deemed unrealistic [1][3][11] Background Knowledge - In early October, China implemented strict controls on rare earth exports, affecting the entire supply chain from mining to production, causing anxiety in Western industries reliant on these materials [3] - Western countries, including the U.S. and Australia, have invested heavily in establishing independent supply chains, with both nations committing $1 billion each, viewing this as a strategic breakthrough [3][6] Misunderstanding of the Industry - Some believe the one-year suspension is a "golden opportunity" for Western countries to overcome their reliance on China, underestimating the complexity of the rare earth industry [4] - Rare earths consist of 17 elements, categorized into light and heavy rare earths, with the U.S. capable of mining 43,000 tons of light rare earths annually, but lacking refining capabilities, as 90% of global refining is controlled by China [6][8] Heavy Rare Earths Challenge - Heavy rare earths, crucial for high-tech applications like aerospace and defense, are predominantly produced in China, with 99% of global production concentrated there [8] - Western efforts to develop refining capabilities are still in experimental stages, with significant timeframes for commercial production, indicating a long road ahead [8][9] Export Restrictions - China's recent suspension only applies to new regulations from October, while previous export restrictions on heavy rare earths and critical elements for semiconductors and military applications remain in effect, contributing to supply shortages in the West [11] - The notion that Western countries can stockpile during this one-year period is misguided, as previous restrictions have already limited their options [11] Conclusion - The current situation is characterized as a self-deceptive attempt by Western nations to believe they can turn the tide in the rare earth industry, while in reality, they are far from achieving independence from Chinese dominance [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, particularly focusing on the recent U.S. tariffs on Chinese rare earth exports and China's corresponding export controls on rare earth materials, highlighting the strategic importance of these materials in technology and defense sectors [1][3][6]. Group 1: U.S. Tariffs and Market Reaction - On October 10, President Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, in response to China's export controls on rare earths [1]. - Following this announcement, U.S. stock markets experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.71%, the Dow Jones down 1.90%, and the Nasdaq falling 3.56%, indicating market concerns over potential disruptions in global supply chains and rising inflation [3]. Group 2: China's Export Control Measures - On October 9, China's Ministry of Commerce announced comprehensive export controls on rare earths, which are critical for military and semiconductor applications, marking a full-chain coverage from extraction to export [3]. - The Chinese government clarified that the export controls do not equate to a ban, as compliant applications for civilian use will still be approved, emphasizing a regulated approach to maintain trade [4]. Group 3: Importance of Rare Earths - Rare earths are essential in modern technology and defense, often referred to as "industrial vitamins," with China holding about one-third of global reserves and over 70% of mining and refining capabilities [6]. - The strategic significance of rare earths is underscored by their applications in various high-tech products, including smartphones, electric vehicles, and advanced military systems, making them a critical resource in the U.S.-China technological competition [6]. Group 4: Future Negotiations and Economic Implications - There is speculation about the potential for renewed negotiations between the U.S. and China around the time of the APEC meeting, as the timing of the tariff implementation may serve as a political window for dialogue [7]. - The economic costs of high tariffs could lead to significant repercussions for both nations, with estimates suggesting that U.S. effective tax rates could rise above 20%, potentially increasing core CPI from 3.4% to 3.5% or higher [7].

Summary of Rare Earth Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the rare earth industry, particularly the recent policy changes and their implications for market dynamics and company performance [1][2][5][7]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Policy Changes**: The annual quota for rare earth mining is no longer publicly disclosed, which may increase market uncertainty and affect expectations [1][2]. 2. **Expanded Definitions**: The definitions and scope of rare earth mining and smelting have been broadened, indicating stricter controls over more types of rare earth minerals, including potential new products [1][2][6]. 3. **Production Forecast**: Baotou Steel (包钢) expects a production of 390,000 tons in 2025, a 3.4% increase year-on-year, which is significant for market quota references [4]. 4. **Market Quota Growth**: The overall market quota growth for 2025 is projected to be between 3.4% and -6.45%, providing support for the market fundamentals [4]. 5. **Cautious Attitude**: The government maintains a cautious stance on the increment of quotas, aiming to reduce market uncertainty and enhance control through measures like export restrictions [5][6]. 6. **Price Trends**: The light rare earth market has seen prices rise to 600,000 yuan, with expectations to reach 800,000 yuan, driven by strong demand in sectors like new energy vehicles and wind power [1][19]. 7. **Heavy Rare Earth Market**: The heavy rare earth market is still in a price initiation phase, with weak demand influenced by new technologies, but it retains strategic value due to scarcity and technical barriers [1][18]. 8. **Regulatory Impact**: The new management measures are expected to strengthen industry regulation, improve resource utilization efficiency, and combat illegal mining and trading [8][9]. 9. **Emerging Applications**: Future applications in humanoid robots and flying cars are anticipated to significantly impact demand for rare earth materials, particularly neodymium-iron-boron magnets [22][24]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The demand for light rare earths is primarily driven by their applications in electric motors for new energy vehicles and wind power, with significant growth expected in these sectors [19][20]. - **Supply Challenges**: Heavy rare earth supply is heavily reliant on ion-type rare earth mines, predominantly located in southern China and Southeast Asia, which face stability issues [14][15]. - **Valuation of Companies**: The valuation of rare earth companies varies, with companies like Shenghe Resources and Northern Rare Earth showing different market capitalizations and production capacities, indicating a need for careful evaluation of investment opportunities [27]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the rare earth industry, highlighting the implications of policy changes, market dynamics, and future growth areas.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the rare earth industry, particularly focusing on the supply and demand dynamics of light and heavy rare earth elements, as well as the impact of government policies on pricing and production [1][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Production and Demand Growth**: Baotou Steel's rare earth concentrate production is expected to increase by 3.4% in 2025, which is significantly lower than the demand growth in the electric vehicle sector (40.61% year-on-year increase) and wind power (new installed capacity doubled) [1][3]. - **Price Trends**: Light rare earth prices have shown a significant upward trend since July 2025, driven by tight supply-demand fundamentals. The first batch of tungsten quotas decreased by 6.45%, indicating limited supply growth [3][7]. - **Strategic Value of Heavy Rare Earths**: Heavy rare earths are crucial for magnetic materials, with elements like samarium, dysprosium, and terbium being essential. China's export controls on these materials are expected to lead to a price increase within 3-6 months after policy implementation [4][9]. - **Emerging Demand Areas**: New demand areas for rare earths include humanoid robots (approximately 4 kg of rare earths per robot) and low-altitude economy applications, which are expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance in the future [2][6]. Additional Important Content - **Global Supply Dynamics**: China currently holds 89% of the global rare earth smelting and separation capacity, which is projected to decrease to 64% by 2029 due to increased overseas capacity and no new domestic production [1][4][14]. - **Impact of Myanmar's Policy**: Myanmar's Kachin State announced the cessation of rare earth mining licenses, which could disrupt global supply stability, particularly affecting ion-type rare earth mines outside of China [8][13]. - **Market Sentiment**: The auction results from Northern Rare Earths showed that all bids were successfully completed, reflecting positive market sentiment [7]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Investors are advised to monitor developments in the electric vehicle and wind power sectors, as these areas are expected to drive demand for rare earths. Companies like Guangsheng Nonferrous and China Northern Rare Earth are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the current market conditions [5][18]. Conclusion - The rare earth industry is poised for significant changes driven by supply constraints, strategic government policies, and emerging technological demands. Investors should remain vigilant regarding market dynamics and policy impacts to identify potential opportunities and risks.