投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20251125 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：美国降息预期再度走强，中美元首超预期通话 海外方面，市场降息预期再度走强，美联储理事沃勒称劳动力市场持续走弱，使其倾向 支持 12 月降息，但大量延迟数据将在会后集中公布，或令 1 月决策更复杂。12 月降息概率 升至 80%。在预期提振下，主要资产延续修复：美股反弹逾 2%，金价重回 4100 美元，油价 涨超 1%，铜价走高，美元指数在 100.2 附近震荡，美债利率回落。今日关注美国 9 月零售 及 PPI 数据。 国内方面，A 股宽幅震荡收涨，两市超 4000 只个股收涨、成交额缩量至 1.74 万亿，科 创、中证 2000 等成长小票领涨，在基本面数据边际走弱、地缘扰动风偏的背景下，短期预 计震荡偏弱，保持观望。资金面偏松，债市走势分化，主要期限国债利率小幅上行，短期依 旧缺乏清晰的主线。中美元首通话超预期，话题涉及台湾、乌克兰、芬太尼和美国农产品。 本周关注 10 月工业企业利润及 11 月 PMI 数据。 贵金属：美联储官员鸽派言论 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of crude oil is expected to be oscillating and strengthening, and investors can focus on the hedging value of out - of - the - money call options [2]. - Precious metals may continue to experience oscillating adjustments, and attention should be paid to the US non - farm payrolls guidance [3]. - Copper short positions should be held as the import tariff on refined copper is excluded, reversing the physical import arbitrage expectation [4]. - Aluminum may continue to be under pressure and oscillate in the short term due to inventory accumulation and weak consumption [5]. - For various commodities, different trading strategies are recommended according to their specific supply - demand and market conditions, such as short - selling aluminum oxide, waiting for inventory verification for aluminum, etc. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices declined. Although trade wars suppress market sentiment, there are still supporting factors from sanctions on oil. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and strengthening [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The cracking spreads of FU and LU are further declining due to weak fundamentals and the support of the crude oil market [22]. - **Asphalt**: In August, domestic production is expected to decline compared to July. Demand recovery is delayed, and inventory reduction is weak. The price trend follows crude oil [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market is under pressure due to supply loosening. The domestic market is also under pressure, and the price is generally low [23]. - **Urea**: The futures price has fallen sharply. The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the short - term market is expected to be weakly oscillating [24]. - **Methanol**: A coastal olefin plant is under maintenance, and the port is accumulating inventory seasonally. The domestic supply is sufficient, and attention should be paid to macro - policies [25]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: The price has fallen below the MA60 moving average. Trump's tariff policy affects the import arbitrage expectation, and short positions should be held [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price is declining. The social inventory of aluminum ingots is accumulating, and the short - term trend is under pressure [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has followed the decline of Shanghai aluminum. The short - term price is under pressure, but it has certain resilience in the medium term [6]. - **Alumina**: The industry profit has recovered, but the market is in an oversupply state. Short - selling is recommended near the recent high of 3500 yuan [7]. - **Zinc**: The macro - optimistic sentiment has faded. The supply - demand pattern is supply - increasing and demand - weakening. Short - selling on rebounds is the main strategy [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel is oscillating. The upstream price support has weakened, and short - selling is recommended [10]. - **Tin**: The price has fallen below the MA60 moving average. High - position short positions should be held [11]. Chemical Commodities - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The demand for propylene has increased slightly, but the market is lackluster. Polyolefin futures are in an interval - consolidation pattern [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is weakening, and the short - term price is expected to be oscillating and weakening. Caustic soda is running weakly, and the long - term price is under pressure [29]. - **PX & PTA**: The prices of PX and PTA have fallen. The mid - term processing margin has a repair drive, but it needs the recovery of downstream demand [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is declining. The domestic supply is increasing, and the overseas supply is stabilizing [31]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle Chip**: The prices have followed the decline of raw materials. Short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation in the medium term, while bottle chips have long - term over - capacity pressure [32]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is under pressure due to good weather and high excellent - rate. The domestic soybean meal inventory is accumulating. The market is waiting for the result of trade negotiations [36]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The prices of both are adjusting. A long - position allocation strategy at low prices is recommended, and attention should be paid to weather and policies [37]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed price is expected to be in a consolidation state. The short - term strategy is to wait and see [38]. - **Corn**: The futures price is oscillating and weakening. The US corn is growing well, and the domestic market focuses on the supply in the circulation link [40]. - **Cotton**: The price is declining. The downstream demand is weak, and the new - season production in Xinjiang is expected to increase. The operation strategy is to wait and see or conduct intraday trading [43]. - **Sugar**: The US sugar trend is downward, and the Zhengzhou sugar lacks positive factors. The short - term price is expected to be oscillating [44]. - **Apple**: The price is oscillating. The market focuses on the new - season production estimate, and the operation strategy is to wait and see [45]. - **Wood**: The supply - demand situation has improved, and the futures price is expected to rise. A long - position strategy is recommended [46]. - **Paper Pulp**: The price is falling. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The price may return to low - level oscillation [47]. Others - **Stock Index**: The stock market declined, and the mid - term market is expected to be relatively positive. Allocation to technology - growth sectors and low - level consumer sectors can be considered [48]. - **Treasury Bond**: The futures price of treasury bonds has strengthened. The yield curve is expected to steepen in the short term [49].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the financial market faces risks of sharp fluctuations due to the escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict, and it is recommended to wait and see for precious metals [2]. - The supply risk related to Iran's energy infrastructure and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz still exists. Crude oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is advisable to continue to be optimistic about the allocation value of out - of - the - money call options and the spread between SC and Brent [1]. - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed according to their respective fundamentals and market conditions, such as holding short positions for copper, waiting and seeing for aluminum, and considering specific arbitrage strategies for casting aluminum alloy [3][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Petrochemicals - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices continued to rise. The Brent 08 contract rose 2.85%, and the SC08 contract rose 8.82%. The supply risk persists, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to be optimistic about the allocation value of out - of - the - money call options and the spread between SC and Brent [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The conflict has led to increased volatility in international oil prices, and the volatility of fuel - related futures is expected to increase. High - sulfur fuel oil has geopolitical premium support, while the demand for low - sulfur fuel oil is weak [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The Middle East conflict is still ongoing, and the international market is strong. The domestic market has some supply pressure, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly [23]. - **Bitumen**: Affected by geopolitical risks, the price of bitumen follows the trend of crude oil. The increase in production is limited, the demand is expected to be boosted, and the inventory is declining. However, the crack spread is under pressure [22]. Metals - **Copper**: Last Friday, the volatility of LME copper increased. The short position is recommended to be held, and the trading sentiment of geopolitical risks over the weekend needs to be evaluated [3]. - **Aluminum**: The low - inventory state has led to a large Back structure in Shanghai aluminum. The upward space of the spot price is limited, and attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities after the narrowing of the monthly spread [4]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The futures price adjusted following Shanghai aluminum. Consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and short on AL if the spread expands [5]. - **Alumina**: The spot trading is scarce, the price is falling, the industry profit is repaired, and the production capacity is in an oversupply state. The futures price is in a weak and volatile state, and short - selling is the main strategy [6]. - **Zinc**: The supply is expected to increase, the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. However, due to the possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, short - term price increases should be vigilant, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel is in a downward trend, and the short position is recommended to be held [9]. - **Tin**: The price of LME tin rose, and a small number of short positions in the far - month contracts are recommended to be held [10]. - **Manganese Ore**: The price is expected to decline further, but the willingness of mines to support the price has increased. The silicon - manganese is temporarily bullish in the short term [18]. - **Silicon - Iron**: It follows the trend of silicon - manganese. The demand is okay, the supply is decreasing, and it is temporarily bullish in the short term [19]. Chemicals - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The geopolitical risk has increased the price of oil, which has a cost - side boost. The supply and demand of polyethylene change little, while the supply of polypropylene increases, and the demand is in the off - season [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is affected by the energy price increase, but the supply and demand are weak, and the price may fluctuate at a low level. The price of caustic soda is under pressure due to the weak downstream demand [28]. - **PX & PTA**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the cost is affected. The demand is weakening, and there is a risk of decline in the medium term if the geopolitical situation eases [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is expected to decline due to the Middle East conflict. The long - position holders should pay attention to the change of the situation and consider leaving the market at high prices [30]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: They follow the raw materials. The short - fiber supply - demand situation is improving, while the bottle - chip inventory is rising, and the repair of the processing margin needs to be treated with caution [31]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The price of soybean meal is affected by the price of domestic oils and fats and the weather in the United States. The inventory of soybean meal is increasing, and attention should be paid to the weather in June - August [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: In the short term, pay attention to the long - short game. In the long term, a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended for vegetable oils [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The upward momentum of the rapeseed series is weak, and the short - term strategy is neutral [37]. - **Soybean No.1**: The price is rising. The remaining grain in the market is scarce, and the price is affected by the weather and the U.S. biodiesel policy [38]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and the futures price may continue to fluctuate [39]. - **Pig**: The policy aims to stabilize the price, but the supply pressure is large in the medium term, and the price may decline [40]. - **Egg**: The price may rebound, but it is not a reversal due to the release of production capacity [41]. - **Cotton**: The international and domestic cotton markets are weak due to insufficient demand. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on significant pullbacks [42]. - **Sugar**: The U.S. sugar price is in a downward trend, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate [43]. - **Apple**: The market demand is decreasing, and the trading focus is on the new - season production estimate. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Wood**: The supply is expected to be low, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider buying on significant pullbacks [46]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The market price has increased, but the increase is lower than expected. The spot volume is good, and the 08 contract needs more substantial negative news to decline further [20]. - **Urea**: The agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season. The market is expected to fluctuate and correct in the short term [24]. - **Methanol**: The supply may be affected by the situation in the Middle East. The short - term price is strong, but there is a risk of decline in the medium term [25]. - **Styrene**: The cost - side is the main driver, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is relatively stable [26]. - **Glass**: The production and sales in Shahe are improving, but the overall inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to operate with caution [32]. - **20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: The supply is increasing, the demand is warming up, and the inventory is rising. It is recommended to wait and see for RU and NR and be bullish on BR [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The inventory is accumulating, the supply is under high pressure, and the long - term strategy is to be bearish at high prices [34]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The market is in a weak and volatile state, waiting for the clarification of the Israel - Iran situation. It is recommended to allocate dividend assets and pay attention to technology - growth opportunities [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: The futures price is rising, and the short - term bullish trend is expected to continue [48].