Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leap Motor (09863.HK) with a target price of HKD 73, corresponding to a valuation of HKD 977 billion, which is 1.5x the estimated price-to-sales (P/S) ratio for 2025 [4][6]. Core Insights - Leap Motor's Q1 2025 gross margin exceeded expectations, achieving 14.9%, a significant improvement from -1.4% year-on-year, driven by increased sales volume and cost control measures [1][4]. - The company reported a Q1 revenue of CNY 10.02 billion, a year-on-year increase of 187.1%, with vehicle sales rising 162% to 87,552 units [1][4]. - The outlook for Q2 2025 anticipates sales of 130,000 to 140,000 units, with a gross margin expected to decline slightly [1][4]. Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, Leap Motor's sales reached 87,552 units, with the C series accounting for 77.5% of total sales, reflecting a 5.7 percentage point increase [2]. - The launch of new models, including the B10 and upgraded C series vehicles, is expected to drive continued sales growth [2][3]. International Expansion - Leap Motor exported 13,632 units from January to April 2025, leading among new energy vehicle manufacturers in China [3]. - The company has established over 500 sales and service points internationally, with plans for localized production in Malaysia and Europe by 2026 [3]. Component Business Outlook - Leap Motor's collaboration with major automotive players, including a strategic partnership with FAW and Stellantis, is expected to enhance its component business and improve economies of scale [4]. - The company anticipates significant growth in sales volume, projecting 550,000 units in 2025, with revenues reaching CNY 60 billion [4][5]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts Leap Motor's revenue to grow from CNY 16.75 billion in 2023 to CNY 99.81 billion by 2027, with a projected net profit of CNY 6.62 billion in 2027 [5][12]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 0.5% in 2023 to 14% by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [12][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 gross margin performance significantly exceeded expectations, driven by a strong new vehicle cycle [8] - The company achieved a revenue of 10.02 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 187.1% [8] - The company’s Q1 gross margin reached a historical high of 14.9%, with a year-on-year increase of 16.3% [8] - The company is expanding its sales and service network, with 756 sales stores and 449 service stores covering 279 cities as of March 2025 [8] - The company is actively pursuing localization of production in overseas markets, including plans for local assembly in Malaysia and Europe [8] - The new B platform vehicles are performing well, with the first model, B10, achieving over 10,000 deliveries shortly after launch [8] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised upwards due to the strong new vehicle cycle, with expected net profits of 613.67 million yuan, 4.40 billion yuan, and 7.67 billion yuan respectively [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 16.75 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 35.23% [1] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 613.67 million yuan in 2025E, marking a significant turnaround from previous losses [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.46 yuan in 2025E, with a P/E ratio of 97.41 [1] - The company’s asset-liability ratio is projected to be 76.32% in 2025E [9] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 11.48% in 2025E [9]

Summary of Leap Motor Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Leap Motor - **Industry**: Electric Vehicle (EV) Manufacturing Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance - In April 2025, Leap Motor sold 41,000 vehicles, maintaining the top position in wholesale sales among new force car manufacturers for two consecutive months, with a month-on-month increase of 4,000 units, primarily due to the complete delivery of the B10 model and significant growth in overseas sales, which reached 6,086 units, the highest among new forces [2][5] - During the May Day holiday, Leap Motor set a new record for order volume, with over 18,000 total orders from May 1 to May 5, and a single-day order exceeding 3,700 units on May 5, indicating strong market demand and potential for future sales growth [2][5] Product Development - The second new car from the B platform, the B01, was unveiled at the Shanghai Auto Show, positioned as a compact pure electric sedan with a competitive price and a range of 650 kilometers, equipped with advanced technologies including LIP3.5 architecture and high-performance chips [2][6] - The new C10 model has started pre-sales, featuring an improved range of 605 kilometers and a price range of 129,800 to 149,800 yuan, enhancing market competitiveness through price reduction and added features [2][6] Strategic Partnerships - Leap Motor signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with China FAW Group, focusing on joint development of new energy passenger vehicles and integration of component technologies, which is expected to positively impact the company's performance through authorized service income [2][7] Financial Projections - For 2025, Leap Motor anticipates sales of 500,000 to 600,000 vehicles, with revenue exceeding 60 billion yuan, and projections for 2026 reaching 100 billion yuan. The expected gross margin is between 10% and 12%, although actual performance typically exceeds guidance [4][12] - The company expects significant improvements in gross margin due to scale effects and cost reductions from the LIP3.5 platform, which is designed to lower production costs [3][12] Market Outlook - The company maintains a positive outlook for future sales, expecting stable monthly sales of 10,000 to 15,000 units for the B10 model and several thousand units for the B01 after its launch in July [4][8] - The new C10 model is projected to maintain strong sales momentum, supported by competitive pricing and enhanced features [9][10] Competitive Positioning - Leap Motor's products are positioned competitively against rivals such as BYD and XPeng, with the B01's range and pricing strategy aimed at capturing market share in the compact EV segment [6][11] Cost Management - The LIP3.5 platform is expected to reduce costs significantly through design optimizations and negotiations with suppliers, contributing to better profitability despite a competitive market environment [12] Additional Important Information - Leap Motor's overall sales strategy includes accelerating overseas expansion, with a focus on high-end models and localizing production to mitigate market disruptions [8][11] - The company has a robust pipeline of new models, including the B05 expected to debut at the Chengdu Auto Show in August 2025, which will further enhance its market presence [11]

风险提示：行业需求不及预期、原材料价格波动风险、行业价格战风险。 增持（维持） 汽车 特斯拉及新势力：小鹏零跑新车亮眼，车企加码智驾与机器人 特斯拉：行业竞争激烈，汽车销量承压影响业绩。2024 年至今，全球新能 源市场整体向好，国内受益政策补贴、新车型持续增加，自主新车数量多 且定价激进，国内新能源车增长势头较强，欧洲市场在碳排法规推动下有 改善的趋势，美国电动化进程持续推进，特斯拉近期仅推出 modely 焕新 版，且调价力度弱于自主品牌，销量承受压力，2024&2025q1，特斯拉交 付 179/34 万辆，同比-1.1%/-13%，其中国内 65.7/17.28 万辆，同比+9%/- 21.8%。受降价促销影响，2024&2025Q1asp 为 4.2/4 万美元，同降 7%/8%；收入 977/193 亿美元，同比+1%/-9%，毛利率 17.9%/16.3%， 净利率 8.1%/4.8%，单车盈利 0.46/0.29 万美元，同降 27%/29%。展望 2025 年，焕新版 model Y 已开启密集交付，后续有计划推出经济型小车 及 cybercab 等，有望带动销量提升。 新势力：小鹏、零跑新 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose by 385 points, closing at 22,504, marking a weekly increase of 523 points or 2.4% [3] - The Northbound trading was paused, resulting in a total market turnover of 133.728 billion [3] - The performance of major blue-chip stocks included AIA rising by 1.7%, Hong Kong Exchanges increasing by 3.1%, and Alibaba jumping by 3.8% [4] Economic Indicators - Hong Kong's retail sales value for March was estimated at 30.1 billion, down 3.5% year-on-year, which was better than the expected decline of 7% [7] - The GDP for the first quarter is estimated to have increased by 3.1% year-on-year, surpassing the market expectation of 2.1% [8] - The total value of goods exported increased by 8.7% year-on-year, while imports rose by 7.4% [8] Banking Sector - Standard Chartered reported a 26.51% year-on-year increase in pre-tax profit in Hong Kong, amounting to 711 million [13] - The bank's credit impairment decreased by 20.45%, indicating improved asset quality [13] Automotive Industry - Leap Motor reported a 173% year-on-year increase in vehicle deliveries for April, totaling 41,039 units [14] - NIO's vehicle deliveries for April increased by 53% year-on-year, reaching 23,900 units [15] Gaming and Hospitality - MGM China reported a 5.46% year-on-year decline in adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter, totaling 2.368 billion [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Views - The automotive sector is expected to enter a phase of sales prosperity, event catalysis, and industry trend resonance, with continued optimism for investment opportunities in the automotive sector [8][18] - The 2024 vehicle trade-in policy has boosted passenger vehicle sales beyond expectations, and the continuation of this policy in 2025 is expected to support upward consumer spending on automobiles [8][18] Summary by Sections Recent Developments - The Tengshi N9 SUV was launched on March 21, with a starting price of 389,800 yuan, featuring advanced specifications such as a power output of nearly 1,000 horsepower and a 0-100 km/h acceleration time of 3.9 seconds [5][15] - The second-generation Haval Xiaolong MAX began pre-sales on March 21, with a starting price of 138,800 yuan, showcasing a comprehensive power system and intelligent driving features [6][16] - Elon Musk held a Tesla all-hands meeting on March 20, discussing innovations in production lines and plans for mass production of autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots [7][17] Market Performance - The automotive sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index during the week of March 17-21, with the automotive index declining by 0.8% compared to the Shanghai Composite's decline of 1.6% [20] - The report highlights a significant increase in the penetration rate of advanced driving assistance systems, benefiting leading automakers and related component manufacturers [9][19] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several investment opportunities, including: 1. Domestic automakers entering a new phase of high-end development, with companies like Li Auto, JAC Motors, Geely, BYD, and Great Wall Motors expected to benefit [19] 2. The "affordability" of advanced driving technology is anticipated to significantly increase its market penetration, with recommendations for companies like XPeng Motors, Huayang Group, Desay SV, and Kobot [19] 3. The potential for mass production of robots, with recommendations for leading companies in the industry chain such as Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and Beite Technology [19] 4. Favorable conditions for high-quality auto parts manufacturers amid a complex export environment, recommending companies like Fuyao Glass, Xingyu Co., and Yinlun [19] 5. Recovery in the commercial vehicle sector, particularly for heavy trucks, with recommendations for leading companies like China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Yutong Bus [19]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, indicating an expected total return over the next 12-18 months that exceeds the relevant market benchmark [3][11]. Core Insights - Leapmotor achieved a revenue of RMB 32.16 billion in 2024, a 92% year-over-year increase, aligning with the forecast of at least RMB 30.5 billion [3][11]. - The company reported a narrowed net loss of RMB 2.82 billion for the year, with Q4 2024 showing a revenue of RMB 13.46 billion, up 155% year-over-year and a net profit of RMB 80 million, marking a positive turnaround [3][11]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) for the year was 8.4%, up 7.9 percentage points year-over-year, with Q4 GPM reaching 13.3%, driven by product mix optimization and cost management [3][11]. - Leapmotor's strategic cooperation with Stellantis Financial Services aims to enhance financial services for distributors and consumers, while the company plans to expand its sales service network to 550 outlets by 2025 [3][11]. Financial Data and Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 55.3 billion, RMB 86.5 billion, and RMB 100 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at RMB 400 million, RMB 1.7 billion, and RMB 4.4 billion for the same years [3][11]. - The report highlights a significant increase in vehicle deliveries, with a total of 294,000 new cars delivered in 2024, a 104% increase year-over-year [3][11]. - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle in Q4 was approximately RMB 111,000, reflecting a year-over-year increase of RMB 16,000 [3][11]. Market Position and Strategy - Leapmotor is positioned as a leading smart electric vehicle company in China, focusing on innovation and self-developed technology to create value for users [3][11]. - The company is expanding its product lineup, with the recent pre-sale of the B10 model, which features advanced intelligent driving capabilities at a competitive price point [3][11]. - The report emphasizes the potential growth opportunities in the RMB 100,000-200,000 economic smart car market, supported by the company's light asset overseas model in collaboration with Stellantis [3][11].

中国将向困难群众发现金。 中国民政部和财政部已经要求各地确保在新中国成立 75 周年（10 月 1 日）前，将一次性生活补助 发放到特困人员、孤儿等困难群众手中。根据 4 月下发的通知，各部委今年为极端贫困、孤儿和无 家可归者准备了 1547 亿元人民币财政援助和补贴。民政部数据显示，截至今年 6 月，中国极端贫 困人口共 474 万人。 上海投入 5 亿元发消费券。 包括 3.6 亿元的餐饮消费券、9000 万元的住宿消费券、4500 万元的电影消费券和 2700 万元的体育 消费券。消费券有满减面额，自 9 月 28 日上午起在不同平台开抢，先到先得，分多轮发放。 8 月海外品牌智能手机在中国出货量下滑。 据中国信通院数据，8 月国内智能手机出货量同比增长 26.7%、至 2404.7 万部，主要由国产品牌带 动。海外品牌（主要是 iPhone）手机出货量同比下滑 12.7%。三方市调机构 Counterpoint 早前报告 称，8 月小米超过苹果，成为全球出货量第二的手机品牌，为三年来首次。 蔚来公布乐道 L60 供应商信息。 针对供应商为 18 线品牌的质疑，乐道公布了供应商、保险价格等信息。中国供应 ...

6 月多家新能源汽车品牌批发量为年内新高 在 Shein、Temu 的推动下，华南至美国空运价格较 2019 年翻倍 上海中海·顺昌玖里二期开盘即售罄，单价近每平方米 30 万元 特斯拉止住颓势，二季度销量超预期 关注《晚点财经》并设为星标，第一时间获取每日商业精华。 上半年国内新能源车销量陆续公布。比亚迪以超 34 万辆的月销量继续断层领先、上半年累计卖出 161 万辆新车，完成年度销量目标的 45%。特斯拉中国排 6 月销量榜第二，据乘联会数据约 7.1 万 辆，继续同比下滑 24%、但环比小幅增长。本月，特斯拉推出 5 年免息等优惠购车政策。 理想和蔚来找回节奏，因为给了消费者更有性价比的选项。前者在 L6 的带动下，月销量回暖至 4.78 万辆，同比增长 47%，接近去年 12 月 5 万辆的最高纪录。后者则在 BaaS 电池租用服务费降低以及 创始人李斌的卖力直播影响下，年内第二次月销超过 2 万辆、6 月达到 2.1 万辆，同比接近翻倍。 据摩根士丹利统计，5 月理想和蔚来国内市场份额不同程度增长，机构预计 L6 订单动力将继续支撑 理想在三季度份额回升 —— 顶着赛力斯给的压力。 作为另一家月销 ...