为稳定经济大盘提供支撑 中国基金报：中央经济工作会议释放出哪些积极信号？你比较关注哪些内容？ 【导读】公募首席解读中央经济工作会议精神：为"十五五"开局定向领航推动经济行稳致远 中国基金报记者 李树超 曹雯璟 张玲 王思文 中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行，会议总结 2025 年经济工作，分析当 前经济形势，部署 2026 年经济工作。 如何看待当前中国经济形势？明年继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释 放出怎样的信号？八项重点任务蕴含怎样的发展新机遇？对此，中国基金报采访了 招商基金 研究部首席经济学家李湛、创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春、金鹰基金首席经济学家兼权 益研究部基金经理杨刚、华夏基金首席策略分析师轩伟、富国基金首席策略分析师马全胜、 博时基金首席权益策略分析师陈显顺和财通基金首席策略师王磊 。 释放多重积极信号 李湛： 会议释放了三大积极信号：一是政策延续性强，明确 " 更加积极的财政政策 + 适度宽 松的货币政策 " ，稳预期效果显著；二是聚焦高质量发展， " 稳中求进、提质增效 " 凸显质 效优先，适配 " 十五五 " 开局需求；三是精准发力重点领域， ...

Market Overview - The A-share market continues its recovery trend, showing a fluctuating upward pattern with increased market activity and a faster rotation of sectors, particularly in consumer electronics and high-end manufacturing [2][8] - The trading volume has increased significantly, with nearly 300 billion yuan more than the previous trading day, indicating a trial entry of incremental funds and a marginal improvement in investor risk appetite [2][8] Economic Indicators - Recent macroeconomic data indicates a gradual recovery in manufacturing and other sectors, providing a supportive backdrop for the market [2][8] - Expectations for multiple important policy meetings before the end of the year are rising, with the market anticipating policies aimed at stabilizing growth, promoting reforms, and expanding domestic demand [2][8] Sector Performance - The consumer electronics sector has shown strong performance, driven by government policies aimed at enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods [6] - The non-ferrous metals sector has also surged, supported by new demand opportunities in aluminum due to the global data center construction wave and potential supply constraints [7] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to align with sector rotation trends, employing balanced allocation, high sell-low buy strategies, or focusing on outperforming sectors [9] - Emphasis should be placed on selecting stocks with performance support while avoiding high-valuation speculative stocks lacking earnings backing [9]

Core Insights - The urbanization process in China is transitioning from scale expansion to quality enhancement, leading to profound changes in resource allocation logic, which significantly impacts urban development [1] - Major cities like Chongqing, Shanghai, Beijing, and Chengdu are experiencing population growth, each surpassing 20 million residents, showcasing their robust development vitality and strong attraction [3][5] - The competitive advantage of these mega cities is not solely based on scale but is supported by a multi-dimensional framework including industrial ecology, public services, and development space [5][7] Urban Development Dynamics - Core cities and key urban clusters are increasingly demonstrating agglomeration effects, forming a new ecosystem of urban development characterized by clear hierarchies and collaborative competition [3] - The Pearl River Delta cities attract a large influx of population due to their complete industrial clusters, becoming significant gathering places for individuals seeking opportunities [3][9] - The employment market in these mega cities is diverse and comprehensive, providing high-end job opportunities and platforms for skilled talent [7] Economic and Industrial Insights - Chongqing and Chengdu are emerging as core destinations for population inflow in the western region, leveraging their unique geographical advantages and complementary industrial layouts [7][9] - The Pearl River Delta cities have established a robust industrial matrix covering high-tech, trade logistics, and various manufacturing sectors, fostering a collaborative and complementary industrial ecosystem [9][11] - Shenzhen has become a hub for top tech talent, driven by leading companies like Huawei and Tencent, which have created a complete high-tech industrial chain [11] Emerging City Competitiveness - New first-tier cities like Hangzhou and Chengdu are rising strongly, injecting new vitality into the urban competition landscape by balancing industrial upgrades and living quality [13][15] - The real estate market is witnessing structural differentiation, with cities like Hangzhou and Chengdu stabilizing prices and improving market conditions driven by demand for better living conditions [17] - The shift in young people's city selection logic is moving towards rational decision-making based on industrial depth, living costs, and public services [19][21] Future Urban Trends - The construction of transportation networks, such as the Chengdu-Chongqing high-speed rail, is enhancing connectivity and supporting a dual-core development model [21] - The urbanization process in China is entering a high-quality development phase, with a clear trend of population and capital concentrating in core cities and urban clusters [23][25] - Sustainable urban development relies on optimizing living costs, enhancing public service levels, and establishing differentiated competitive advantages [25][26]

Company Overview - The company is a leading global professional electronic manufacturing enterprise, consistently ranked among the top in the Electronic Manufacturing Service (EMS) industry by MMI [1] - It focuses on providing one-stop electronic product manufacturing services, including R&D, process design, production, supply chain management, logistics, and sales [1] - The company has established a development strategy centered on three main businesses: storage semiconductors, high-end manufacturing, and intelligent metering terminals [1] Semiconductor Industry Insights - As of June 2025, the global semiconductor industry sales reached $59.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, with the Chinese market growing by 13.1% [2] - In the packaging and testing sector, the top ten global testing companies are projected to generate a combined revenue of $41.56 billion in 2024, reflecting a 3% annual growth [2] - The advanced packaging market is expected to reach $56.9 billion in total revenue by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9.6% [2] Technical Barriers and Future Plans - The company possesses high technical barriers in storage chip packaging, supported by an experienced R&D and engineering team, and advanced multi-layer stacking packaging capabilities [2] - Future plans for the high-end manufacturing sector include focusing on high-barrier, high-value-added businesses, enhancing digital transformation, and leveraging smart manufacturing and digital operations [2] - The company aims to transition from "Made in China" to "Created in China," emphasizing lean management, smart manufacturing, and the cultivation of new productive forces [2] Information Disclosure Compliance - The company adheres strictly to the information disclosure management regulations, ensuring that all disclosed information is true, accurate, complete, timely, and fair [2]

Company Overview - The company is a global leader in the electronic manufacturing services (EMS) industry, consistently ranked among the top by MMI [1] - It focuses on providing comprehensive electronic product manufacturing services, including R&D, process design, production, supply chain management, logistics, and sales [1] - The development strategy is centered around three main business areas: storage semiconductors, high-end manufacturing, and intelligent metering terminals [1] Storage Testing and Packaging - The company is a leading domestic player in high-end storage chip testing and packaging, with a skilled R&D and engineering team [2] - It possesses advanced multi-layer stacking packaging technology and testing capabilities [2] - Future plans include optimizing the product matrix and business model while expanding into emerging business areas to maintain technological leadership in the storage industry [2] High-End Manufacturing Strategy - The company prioritizes high-barrier, high-value-added businesses and is focused on digital transformation [2] - Core drivers include smart manufacturing, digital operations, and intelligent supply chains [2] - The goal is to enhance the systematic and flexible capabilities of high-end manufacturing, transitioning from "Made in China" to "Created in China" [2] Metering Business Development - The metering business will continue to expand in the domestic market to increase market share [2] - Since 2022, the company has secured multiple domestic orders, including a significant project with the State Grid worth over RMB 127 million in the first half of 2025 [2] - The company aims to leverage its extensive experience in international markets to enhance its domestic market presence, particularly in smart meter reliability and safety [2] Compliance and Information Disclosure - The company adheres strictly to information disclosure regulations, ensuring the accuracy and completeness of disclosed information [2] - There have been no incidents of significant undisclosed information leaks during the investor relations activity [2]

Core Insights - The 8th China International Import Expo (CIIE) is currently ongoing, with six countries including Thailand, UAE, Nigeria, Georgia, Sweden, and Colombia participating as guest countries [1][7] - Sweden, as a first-time guest country, showcased high-end manufacturing and green technology products, blending technology with culture [1] - Colombia, also a returning participant, presented its cultural charm through dance performances and food tastings, highlighting the growing scale and importance of the expo for Colombian businesses [5] Group 1 - The CIIE serves as a significant platform for international cooperation, with companies aiming to establish new partnerships with Chinese enterprises [3] - The expo features a diverse range of products from various countries, from Thai rice to heavy trucks, showcasing the strengths of each participating nation [7] - The increasing number of exhibitors and attendees at the expo indicates its expanding influence and importance in global trade [5][7] Group 2 - The UAE pavilion attracted many visitors with distinctive cultural performances, emphasizing the country's unique offerings [7] - The participation of 29 Colombian companies at the expo reflects the growing interest and investment in the Chinese market [5] - The event highlights the role of China as a global leader in innovation, attracting international businesses to engage and collaborate [3]

Core Insights - The company achieved operating revenue of 3.538 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a cumulative revenue of 11.278 billion yuan year-to-date, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.93% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 was 304 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.95% year-on-year, while the cumulative net profit reached 756 million yuan, up 14.27% year-on-year, indicating steady improvement in profitability [3] - The company demonstrated strong cash flow management, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 2.033 billion yuan year-to-date, representing a growth of 6.05% [3] - Total assets amounted to 27.557 billion yuan, a 2.93% increase from the previous year, and equity attributable to shareholders rose by 7.22% to 12.735 billion yuan, indicating an optimized asset structure [3] - Basic and diluted earnings per share for the reporting period were both 0.1940 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.57%, while year-to-date figures were 0.4833 yuan, up 14.04% [3] - The weighted average return on equity was 6.16%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points year-on-year, providing stable returns for shareholders [3] Business Performance - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses showed fluctuations, but the core business remained stable [4] - In the context of intensified competition in the global electronic information industry, the company maintained robust development by optimizing product structure and enhancing operational efficiency [4] - The company has made significant progress in its main business areas, including storage semiconductors and high-end manufacturing, laying a solid foundation for achieving annual performance targets [4]

Group 1 - The core conclusion is that Chinese assets are entering a "golden era" as the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts, leading to a return of cross-border capital and national wealth to China, which will benefit manufacturing and consumption assets [1][10]. - The foundation of this "golden era" is the competitive advantage of China's manufacturing exports, which has been strengthened by recent years of intense competition, allowing for continued accumulation of national wealth despite external challenges [2][13]. - The path to this "golden era" involves the recovery of A-share profits and cash flows, driven by export expansion and consumption upgrades, replacing previous reliance on capital expenditure [3][21]. Group 2 - The expansion of high-end manufacturing exports is crucial for the "golden era," as it leads to long-term appreciation of the RMB and the return of foreign capital, enhancing consumer spending power [4][14]. - The anticipated "big liquidity injection" by the Federal Reserve is expected to accelerate the return of cross-border capital to China, leading to a systematic revaluation of Chinese manufacturing and consumption assets [4][28]. - The report suggests a strategic allocation towards sectors that are expected to reach new highs, including precious metals, new consumption categories, and high-end manufacturing, as the market transitions into a "re-inflation bull" phase [5][30]. Group 3 - The market has recently shown a shift towards undervalued sectors, indicating a potential recovery in A-share performance as manufacturing and consumption sectors are poised for a rebound [8][33]. - Economic indicators such as the manufacturing PMI and consumer confidence are showing positive trends, which may support the recovery of consumer spending and overall economic activity [45]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring key economic data and market trends to identify further investment opportunities in the context of the anticipated recovery of Chinese assets [6][41].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a mixed performance last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 1.30% to close at 3820.09 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.14% and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.34% [2] - The market showed overall volatility in the first half of the week, but retreated towards the end as investors reacted to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [2][3] Federal Reserve Impact - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points was in line with market expectations, leading to a temporary cooling of investor sentiment and risk appetite [3][4] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains positive for A-shares, with expectations of a stronger RMB and improved market risk appetite [3][4] Calendar Effects - Historical data indicates that A-shares typically exhibit a calendar effect around the National Day holiday, with a tendency for the market to perform poorly before the holiday and rebound afterward [5][6] - Over the past decade, indices such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 have shown over 60% probability of rising in the week following the National Day holiday [5] Sector Performance - Certain sectors, particularly technology-related industries such as computers, communications, and electronics, have a higher probability of rising in the five trading days following the holiday [6] - Financial sectors, including banks and non-bank financials, are also expected to perform well in the weeks following the holiday [6] Investment Strategy - The fourth quarter is anticipated to see a shift in investment styles, with a potential rotation from previously high-performing sectors to more defensive ones [7] - Investors are encouraged to focus on sectors driven by economic recovery and industry trends, such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, new energy, and consumer sectors [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Wuchan Zhongda Group Co., Ltd., reported a slight decline in revenue but significant growth in profit metrics for the first half of 2025, indicating resilience and effective management strategies in a challenging market environment [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved total revenue of 288.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.92% [2]. - Total profit reached 3.74 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.03% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.04 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 29.65% [2]. Business Segments - The core supply chain integration services generated 265.61 billion yuan, accounting for 92.06% of total revenue, with significant growth in key sectors [3]. - Steel sales reached 37.97 million tons, up 6.46% year-on-year, while coal sales increased by 14.13% to 31.90 million tons [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is advancing its "One Body, Two Wings" strategy, focusing on smart supply chain services and enhancing operational efficiency [2][3]. - In financial services, the Zhejiang International Commodity Trading Center has attracted 3,619 quality member enterprises, with a pre-sale trading volume of 26.26 billion yuan, a 3.46% increase [3]. - R&D expenses rose by 27.96% to 655 million yuan, supporting the high-end manufacturing sector, which generated 16.08 billion yuan in revenue [3]. Industry Positioning - Wuchan Zhongda is recognized as a leader in supply chain integration services and has been listed among the Fortune Global 500 for 15 consecutive years, ranking 149th in 2025 [2]. - The company is also exploring opportunities in public service sectors such as elder care and environmental services, aligning with government and market demands [4].