AI 时代创新先锋，行业配置更进一竿 - 电子行业 2025Q3 基金持仓分析 20251121 摘要 2025 年第三季度电子板块涨幅显著，位居全行业第二，主要受益于算 力相关领域及 AI 消费电子新品，但后者放量预计在明年下半年或后年。 电子行业细分领域中，零部件及元器件配置增长最多，半导体配置比例 最高达 12.91%，重仓标的包括寒武纪、兆易创新等，受益于 AI、大算 力及存储扩产。 立讯精密、工业富联等公司被看好，工业富联新增大量主动型基金持仓， 预示未来成长潜力，并有望在明年业绩中体现。 全球半导体月度销售额创新高，预计未来一两年内可能突破万亿美元， AI 和存储需求共振，存储市场呈现缺货涨价状态，2026 年预计持续高 增速。 尽管存储涨价带来压力，但终端环节软硬件创新将带动电子产品及元器 件板块增长，富联、沪电等公司被大幅增配，仍具备配置价值。 显示器件市场格局稳定，利润趋于稳定，核心龙头公司分红潜力大，但 短期内受 AI 热潮影响，基金有所减配，长期前景依然看好。 外资通过陆股通增配蓝思科技、水晶光电等行业龙头，减配豪威集团等， ETF 重仓股持仓金额增加但集中度下降，AI 仍是确定性投入增 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in various sectors, particularly in the semiconductor, healthcare, and renewable energy industries, indicating a favorable investment environment for long-term strategies [4][21][24]. Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,990.49, down 0.97%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,216.03, down 1.93% [3]. - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext Index are 16.52 and 50.18, respectively, suggesting a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [7][9]. Industry Analysis - The semiconductor industry showed a significant year-on-year revenue increase of 6.07% in Q3 2025, with a notable profit growth of 48.93% [27]. - The healthcare and renewable energy sectors are experiencing strong performance, with specific focus on battery, medical, and photovoltaic equipment industries [8][11][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy focusing on cyclical and technology growth sectors, particularly in batteries, healthcare, and renewable energy [10][12][22]. - The mechanical industry is also highlighted for its steady growth, with a revenue increase of 5.98% year-on-year in Q3 2025, indicating a positive outlook for related investments [21]. Key Data Updates - The report notes that the North American cloud service providers have increased capital expenditures significantly, with a total of $96.4 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting a 67% year-on-year growth [30][31]. - The domestic semiconductor market is expected to see further price increases, particularly in DRAM and NAND Flash products, driven by rising demand from data centers and AI applications [29][28]. Sector-Specific Insights - The sports nutrition market in China is projected to grow at an annual rate of 11.56%, driven by an increasing number of fitness enthusiasts [18][19]. - The mechanical sector is witnessing a recovery, with traditional cyclical industries showing significant profit growth, while emerging sectors are beginning to show signs of improvement [21][22]. Conclusion - Overall, the report indicates a positive trend across multiple sectors, with specific recommendations for investors to focus on cyclical recovery and technology-driven growth opportunities, particularly in the semiconductor and renewable energy industries [4][21][24].

Group 1 - The market has experienced a significant style switch since November, with brokerages suggesting a focus on technology, consumer, and core asset sectors as the year-end approaches in a bullish environment [1] - As of October 31, the Hang Seng Technology PE-TTM stands at 22.9 times, which is at the 29th percentile historically, indicating that Hong Kong stocks are not highly valued [1] - Cumulative southbound capital inflow since 2025 has exceeded 1.1 trillion yuan, primarily driven by institutional forces such as public funds and insurance capital, with expectations for net inflows to surpass 1.5 trillion yuan next year [1] Group 2 - In Q3, actively managed equity funds increased their positions in the technology sector while reducing exposure to blue-chip sectors like banking, indicating a shift in institutional behavior [1] - The technology growth narrative is believed to remain intact, with Hong Kong's technology, consumer, and core assets being viewed as scarce opportunities [1] - The AI industry trend is accelerating, with the fundamentals of the Hang Seng Technology index appearing favorable [1] Group 3 - The "Magnificent 7" tech giants, including Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia, are recognized for their robust growth and innovation, establishing them as core assets in the US tech sector [1] - Companies like Xiaomi, Lenovo, BYD, SMIC, Alibaba, Tencent, and Meituan are highlighted for their potential benefits from AI and market opportunities in the coming years [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in the A-share market, with structural opportunities emerging in various sectors, particularly technology and energy [14][15][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term capital in enhancing market stability and supporting high-quality development in the capital market [11][12] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,950.31, with a daily increase of 0.71%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.02% to 13,289.18 [4] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext Index are 16.02 and 48.28, respectively, indicating a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [13][15] International Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 30,772.79, down 0.67%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also experienced declines of 0.45% and 0.15%, respectively [5] Industry Analysis - The report notes a significant decline in the media sector, with a 6.65% drop in the media index from September 29 to October 22, underperforming compared to the broader market indices [19] - The automotive industry achieved record production and sales figures in September, with production reaching 3.28 million vehicles and sales at 3.23 million, marking year-on-year increases of 17.15% and 14.86% respectively [24][25] - The new energy vehicle penetration rate reached 49.72% in September, reflecting strong growth in this segment [24] Technology and AI Developments - The report discusses advancements in AI applications, particularly the release of OpenAI's latest video generation model, which enhances the capabilities of AI in content creation [22] - The software industry in China saw a revenue increase of 12.6% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2025, indicating a robust growth trajectory [26] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as gaming, which is expected to benefit from favorable policies and strong market demand, as well as the publishing sector, which offers stable returns due to its low volatility and high dividend yields [21][25] - In the automotive sector, the report recommends attention to companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing transition to smart and electric vehicles [25]

Core Insights - The report highlights the robust growth in the semiconductor industry, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 13.87% in Q2 2025, driven by strong performance from domestic AI chip manufacturers [19][20][21] - The telecommunications sector is experiencing significant capital expenditure growth, with major cloud service providers increasing their budgets, indicating a strong demand for AI infrastructure [22][23] - The food and beverage sector shows a recovery trend, with a notable increase in individual stock performance, particularly in snacks and alcoholic beverages, despite overall market challenges [29][30][31] Domestic Market Performance - The A-share market has shown a wide fluctuation, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,831.66, down 1.15% [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are at 15.80 and 50.16 respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [8][9] International Market Performance - The Dow Jones closed at 30,772.79, down 0.67%, while the Nikkei 225 saw a slight increase of 0.62% [4] - Global liquidity conditions are expected to remain loose, benefiting foreign capital inflows into the A-share market [9] Industry Analysis - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a strong upward trend, with domestic semiconductor stocks rising by 23.84% in August 2025, outperforming the broader market indices [19][20] - The telecommunications sector is projected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with a focus on cloud integration and digital technology applications in key industries [16][22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as AI chips, telecommunications, and the food and beverage industry for potential investment opportunities, given their strong growth prospects and market dynamics [16][22][29] - Specific companies within the AI chip sector, such as Cambrian and Haiguang Information, are highlighted for their impressive revenue growth and market positioning [20][22] Economic Indicators - The report notes that China's total R&D investment is expected to exceed 3.6 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a 48% increase from 2020, which underscores the country's commitment to innovation [4][8] - The service industry is also showing signs of growth, with the top 500 service enterprises projected to achieve a total revenue of 51.1 trillion yuan in 2024 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" investment rating for the communication industry [6][7]. Core Insights - The communication industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index in August 2025, with a rise of 33.78%, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index (+7.97%), CSI 300 Index (+10.33%), Shenzhen Component Index (+15.32%), and ChiNext Index (+24.13%) [6][14]. - From January to July 2025, China's telecommunications business revenue reached 1,043.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. As of July 2025, 5G mobile phone users accounted for 62.7% of total mobile phone users [6][46]. - The retail sales of communication equipment increased by 14.9% year-on-year in July 2025, driven by smartphone upgrades and marketing activities [6][42]. - The report highlights a significant increase in capital expenditure by major North American cloud providers, with a total of $95.06 billion in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 66.6% [6][22]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The communication industry index showed a strong performance in August 2025, with a 33.78% increase, outperforming major indices [6][14]. - The sub-sectors of the communication industry, including network equipment and systems, also experienced significant growth, with increases of 64.61% and 30.10% respectively [17]. Telecommunications Sector - The telecommunications business revenue for the first seven months of 2025 was 1,043.1 billion yuan, with a total business volume growth of 8.9% [6][46]. - The number of 5G mobile phone users reached 1.137 billion, marking a net increase of 123 million from the end of 2024 [6][47]. - The average monthly mobile internet usage (DOU) reached 20.91 GB per user in July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.9% [6][56]. Cloud Infrastructure and AI - Major cloud providers are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, with a combined forecast of over $300 billion for 2025 [22]. - The demand for AI applications is driving the growth of cloud services, with a notable increase in spending on AI infrastructure [29][30]. Market Trends - The report suggests a positive outlook for the optical communication and AI smartphone sectors, driven by advancements in technology and increasing consumer demand [7][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating digital technologies with the real economy, particularly in key sectors such as industrial manufacturing and digital government [6][7].

Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows strong supply but weak demand, indicating a cautious outlook for various sectors [4][11][15] - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the ChiNext index, driven by policy support and advancements in battery storage technology [17][24][28] Macroeconomic Overview - Construction activity is showing signs of improvement, with a slight increase in operational rates for key materials like asphalt and cement, although still below historical averages [6] - Industrial production remains robust, with high operational rates in the chemical sector, but automotive sales have seen a decline [6][13] - Demand in the construction sector is weak, with negative year-on-year growth in building materials [6][12] Commodity Prices - International commodity prices are fluctuating, with significant increases in gold prices, while domestic industrial prices are stable [7] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions have turned positive, with a notable increase in sales in first-tier cities due to relaxed policies [8] - The second-hand housing market is showing marginal improvement, with transaction volumes increasing in major cities [8] Export Trends - Exports are projected to grow by approximately 4% year-on-year in early September, supported by favorable tariff conditions [9] Consumer Market - Retail sales growth has slowed, with a year-on-year decline in August, but the "trade-in" policy is expected to boost sales in the coming months [12][32] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment has weakened, particularly in real estate, with a significant year-on-year decline in property development investment [14][34] Automotive Industry - Heavy truck sales have surged, with a year-on-year increase of about 40% in August, indicating a strong recovery in the domestic market [52] - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks has reached a record high, driven by supportive policies and market demand [53] Battery and Storage Sector - The new energy storage policy aims to significantly increase installed capacity by 2027, indicating strong future growth potential for the battery sector [25][27] - The battery industry is experiencing improved market conditions, with solid-state batteries and lithium batteries gaining traction [27] Machinery Sector - The development of Tesla's robotic technology, particularly the "dexterous hand," is crucial for achieving mass production, highlighting the importance of advanced robotics in manufacturing [58][59]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][15]. Core Views - The company is entering an AI-driven innovation cycle in consumer electronics, with significant growth in automotive communication business [2][3]. - The company achieved a revenue of 124.5 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.18%, and a net profit of 6.644 billion yuan, up 23.13% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expanding its product lines and customer base in the automotive sector, focusing on key areas such as intelligent cockpit and driving assistance systems, which is expected to drive significant growth [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 62.715 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.51%, and a net profit of 3.601 billion yuan, up 23.09% year-on-year [1]. - The company forecasts a net profit of 4.246 to 4.699 billion yuan for Q3 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 15.41% to 27.74% [1]. Business Segments - The consumer electronics segment generated revenue of 97.799 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.32% [2]. - The communication interconnect products and precision components business achieved revenue of 11.098 billion yuan in H1 2025, a significant increase of 48.65% year-on-year [2]. - The automotive interconnect products and precision components business saw revenue of 8.658 billion yuan in H1 2025, marking an impressive year-on-year growth of 82.07% [3]. Profitability and Valuation - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 16.675 billion yuan and 20.434 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 25.118 billion yuan [3]. - The current market valuation corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19X for 2025, 15X for 2026, and 12X for 2027 [3].

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the A-share market, driven by supportive policies and a shift of household savings towards capital markets, with an expected recovery in corporate earnings growth after four consecutive years of decline [5][8][9] - The communication industry is experiencing significant growth, with a notable increase in capital expenditure from North American cloud vendors and advancements in AI technology, particularly with the release of the GPT-5 model [15][19][28] - The media sector shows a rebound in fund holdings, particularly in gaming and advertising, indicating strong investor interest and potential for growth in these areas [21][34] Domestic Market Performance - The A-share market has shown a steady upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,883.56, reflecting a 1.51% increase [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are at 15.62 and 46.07 respectively, indicating a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [8][9] International Market Performance - Major international indices such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 have shown slight declines, with the Dow Jones closing at 30,772.79, down 0.67% [4] Industry Analysis - The software industry in China has seen a revenue increase of 11.9% in the first half of 2025, with significant growth in AI-related projects and applications [28][29] - The automotive sector is experiencing a seasonal slowdown but continues to show double-digit year-on-year growth, particularly in the electric vehicle segment, which has seen a 120% increase in exports [25][27] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, food and beverage, real estate, and aerospace for short-term investment opportunities [8][9] - In the communication sector, it is recommended to pay attention to light communication, AI smartphones, and telecom operators, which are expected to benefit from increased capital expenditure and technological advancements [19][30] - The media sector, particularly gaming and IP derivatives, is highlighted as having strong growth potential, with a recommendation to monitor companies in these areas for investment opportunities [21][22][34]

Summary of the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses **ZTE Corporation** and the **domestic computing power industry** in China, particularly focusing on the developments in AI and semiconductor sectors [2][3][6]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Concerns and Recovery**: Concerns regarding domestic computing power stem from tariffs, trade wars, and the H20 ban, leading to a decline in capital expenditure. However, since May, there has been a recovery in overseas demand for inference and application, indicating a formed commercial closed loop [2][3]. 2. **Profitability Improvement**: The profitability of the domestic computing power sector is improving, with specific segments like switches showing better performance. From a valuation perspective, these companies are more attractive compared to peers like Xinyi and Xuchuang [2][5]. 3. **ZTE's Dual Drivers**: ZTE is highlighted as a key player with dual drivers of performance release and technological breakthroughs. Although 2025 may see a decline in operator capital expenditure, a recovery in 5G investments is expected in 2026, alongside increased capital expenditure on computing power [2][6]. 4. **Impact of Tariffs**: Recent U.S. tariffs on semiconductors may pose short-term challenges but are expected to drive long-term advancements in domestic chip technology [2][7]. 5. **Technological Advancements**: The release of Deepsec's V3.1 model indicates significant technological breakthroughs in domestic chip design, enhancing the competitive strength of local companies [2][8]. 6. **GPU Supply Uncertainty**: There is uncertainty in overseas GPU supply, but domestic companies like Cambricon, Kunlun, and Muxi are making progress in this area. ZTE plans to incorporate domestic chips in its next-generation products, indicating an increase in domestic computing power demand [2][9]. 7. **ZTE's Comprehensive Capabilities**: ZTE is recommended as a core investment due to its full-stack capabilities in AI cluster computing, covering everything from chips to complete systems, and its involvement in liquid cooling technology [2][10]. 8. **R&D Investment**: ZTE has shifted focus from traditional connectivity to computing power, with R&D expenses projected to reach 24 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 20% of total revenue, which is comparable to Huawei's investment levels [2][11]. 9. **Business Segment Performance**: ZTE's business segments include operators, government enterprises, and consumer markets. The operator segment is expected to decline by 15% in 2024, but 5G and 6G upgrades may provide future growth opportunities [2][12]. 10. **Chip Development**: ZTE's subsidiary, ZTE Microelectronics, has achieved significant milestones, including the commercialization of 130 types of chips and a shipment volume of 200 million units, covering a wide range of applications [2][13]. 11. **Ethernet Switch Chip Capabilities**: ZTE has developed Ethernet switch chips capable of 51.2T, surpassing competitors like Shengke, which have achieved lower levels [2][14][15]. 12. **DPU Significance**: The introduction of the Dinghai DPU is crucial for optimizing CPU and GPU collaboration, indicating ZTE's commitment to enhancing its market competitiveness [2][16]. 13. **Market Analysis Reports**: IDC's report highlights ZTE's comprehensive capabilities in the large model inference market, showcasing its critical components in computing and connectivity [2][17]. 14. **Scale-Up Architecture**: The scale-up architecture is essential for enhancing overall performance in computing clusters, presenting new market opportunities for domestic GPUs [2][18]. 15. **Competitive Landscape**: Huawei and Nvidia maintain a competitive edge in the global computing power sector due to their comprehensive capabilities in computing and networking [2][19]. 16. **Future Prospects for Domestic GPUs**: Domestic GPUs and overseas inference ASICs are expected to become significant growth areas in the latter half of 2025, although they may face challenges in cluster network construction [2][20]. 17. **Potential Collaborators**: Companies like Cambricon and Kunlun are positioned to assist in the interconnection deployment of domestic GPUs, leveraging their technical expertise [2][21]. 18. **ZTE Microelectronics' Financials**: ZTE Microelectronics reported revenues of 9.73 billion yuan in 2021, with profits exceeding 800 million yuan, indicating its growth trajectory [2][22]. 19. **ZTE's Future Outlook**: ZTE's comprehensive layout in the domestic computing power chain positions it favorably for future growth, with a projected PE ratio of 25 times for 2025, suggesting it is relatively undervalued [2][24]. Additional Important Content - The call emphasizes the importance of ongoing technological advancements and strategic shifts within ZTE and the broader domestic computing power industry, highlighting the potential for significant growth and investment opportunities in the coming years [2][3][6][10][24].