分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -5% 3% 11% 19% 27% 35% 44% 52% 2024.08 2024.12 2025.04 2025.08 上证指数 深证成指 证券研究报告-晨会聚焦 发布日期：2025 年 08 月 26 日 【财经要闻】 1、政协第十四届全国委员会常务委员会第十三次会议 25 日上午在京开 幕，围绕"制定国民经济和社会发展'十五五'规划"协商议政。 2、上海 6 部门联合印发《关于优化调整本市房地产政策措施的通知》，包 括调减住房限购、优化住房公积金、优化个人住房信贷以及完善个人住房 房产税等政策。 3、央行上海总部发布通知称，对上海市商业性个人住房贷款利率定价机 制进行调整，上海市商业性个人住房贷款利率不再区分首套住房和二套 住房。 资料来源：新华社，人民银行上海市分行，Wind 资讯 【宏观策略】 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | ...

市场对国产算力的担忧主要源于关税、贸易战及 H20 禁令，导致资本开 支下滑，但 5 月起海外推理和应用端需求回升，表明商业闭环已形成， 如 ASIC 推理芯片、甲骨文算力租赁及 Google TOKEN 量增加。 国产算力板块盈利能力改善，以交换机为代表的细分领域业绩显现，估 值角度优于新易盛、旭创等公司，PB 角度也更具优势，核心矛盾逐步解 决。 中兴通讯作为重点标的，具备业绩释放和技术突破双线驱动。虽 2025 年受运营商资本开支下滑影响，但预计 2026 年 5G 投资恢复，算力侧 资本开支增加，且在 GPU 芯片、交换芯片等核心领域布局领先。 近期美国对半导体加征关税虽短期利空，但长期将推动国内芯片技术进 步。Deepsec 发布 V3.1 版本模型，提出针对下一代国产芯片设计的新 精度标准，表明国内企业技术突破显著。 海外 GPU 供应存在不确定性，国内寒武纪、昆仑芯和沐曦等企业在 GPU 领域取得进展，DS 计划在下一代产品中使用国产芯片，国产算力 景气度提升。 中兴通讯 20250824 摘要 Q&A 我们推荐国产算力的原因主要有两个方面。首先，全球 AI 产业变革过程中， 2025 年上半年 ...

| 国内市场表现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 涨跌幅(%) | | | 昨日收盘价 | | | 上证指数 | 3,825.76 | | | | | 1.45 | | 深证成指 | | | | | 12,166.06 | 2.07 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | | -0.47 | | | | | 300 | 4,378.00 | | | 沪深 | | 2.10 | | 50 | 2,443.97 | | -0.52 | 上证 | | | | 50 | 891.46 | | 0.14 | 科创 | | | | 50 | 1,924.26 | | -0.67 | 创业板 | | | | 100 | 4,137.88 | | | 中证 | | 2.44 | | 500 | 6,822.85 | | | 中证 | | 1.77 | | 1000 | 6,116.76 | | | 中证 | | 0.33 | | 2000 | 7,801.23 | | | 国证 | | 0.58 | | 资料来源：聚 ...

朝闻国盛 杰克逊霍尔：不止放鸽，还有政策框架修订 今日概览 证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 08 25 年 月 日 【宏观】高频半月观—8 月以来出口表现仍强——20250824 【宏观】杰克逊霍尔：不止放鸽，还有政策框架修订——20250823 重磅研报 【固定收益】资金宽松，杠杆下降——流动性和机构行为跟踪—— 20250823 【银行】2025上半年各地信贷增速及贷款利率有何变化？——20250824 【电子】消费电子进入新品发布旺季，板块估值重塑可期——20250824 【建筑】联检科技（301115.SZ）-并购拓疆步入收获期，检测龙头迎新 增长拐点——20250824 【食品饮料】安琪酵母（600298.SH）-以史为鉴，大周期起点 —— 20250824 【金融工程】食品饮料终于迎来日线级别上涨——20250824 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周估值分数继续下行——20250823 【固定收益】债对股的敏感性或下降——20250824 【固定收益】化债见成果——各地 2025 年 H1 经济财政债务盘点—— 20250823 【电力设备】威力传动（300904. ...

Report Overview - The report focuses on the financial performance of emerging industries, including electronic components, new chemical industry, and automotive industry from 2024 to Q1 2025 [2][3]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Emerging industries are facing profit - pressure but show resilience, and policy support helps optimize financing. Although the growth rate of total net profit is still negative, the decline has narrowed, over 70% of issuers are profitable, and over 50% have increased operating cash flow. The overall risk is controllable due to continuous policy support and relatively smooth financing channels [3]. Sub - industry Summaries Electronic Components Industry - From 2024 to Q1 2025, the industry showed recovery and differentiation. The total net profit growth rate turned negative in 2024 (-10.52%) but rebounded to 28.2% in Q1 2025. The asset - liability ratio fluctuated upward, short - term debt expanded, but the coverage ratio of monetary funds to short - term debt increased. The semiconductor manufacturing capacity gap in China is still large, and panel prices showed different trends. The industry may develop towards smaller processes and advanced packaging technologies [8]. New Chemical Industry - From 2024 to Q1 2025, the industry was in a low - boom cycle due to weak demand and over - capacity. The total net profit growth rate decreased by 9.53% in Q1 2025. The enterprise leverage ratio was high but stabilizing, and short - term debt growth slowed. The short - term solvency is generally controllable but with internal differentiation [10]. Automotive Industry - In 2024, domestic automobile sales increased by 4.6% year - on - year, and the increase expanded to 11.7% in Q1 2025. However, the average price reduction of 8.3% compressed the gross profit margin, and the net profit growth rate of traditional car - makers turned negative. The debt scale expanded, but the leverage ratio was stable, and solvency was controllable. The industry may continue the "stronger get stronger" pattern [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the semiconductor industry [2] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is currently in an upward cycle, driven significantly by AI as a key growth engine [4][20] - The global semiconductor sales in May 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, marking the 19th consecutive month of growth [20][21] - The report highlights a strong performance in the semiconductor sector, with a 6.01% increase in June 2025, outperforming the 2.50% rise in the CSI 300 index [10][12] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - In June 2025, the semiconductor industry (CITIC) rose by 6.01%, with integrated circuits up by 5.82% and semiconductor equipment up by 7.11% [4][10] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased by 16.57% in June 2025, significantly outperforming the Nasdaq 100 [12][16] 2. Sales and Pricing Trends - The DRAM and NAND Flash price indices saw substantial increases, with DRAM up approximately 62% and NAND up about 13% from March to June 2025 [3][4] - Global semiconductor sales are projected to reach $700.9 billion in 2025, reflecting an 11.2% year-on-year growth [23][24] 3. AI and Consumer Electronics - AI glasses are identified as a prime hardware platform for edge AI, with expected global sales reaching 3.5 million units in 2025, a 230% increase year-on-year [4][20] - The report anticipates a rapid increase in AI smartphone penetration, projected to reach 34% in 2025 [4][20] 4. Inventory and Capacity Utilization - Global semiconductor manufacturers reported a slight decrease in inventory levels, while some domestic manufacturers saw an increase, indicating a potential improvement in inventory management [4][20] - The capacity utilization rates among global wafer fabs showed mixed trends, with some experiencing a decline [4][20] 5. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities within the AI glasses supply chain, including SoC, memory, optics, batteries, and OEM sectors [4][5] - Domestic memory manufacturers are expected to gain market share due to increasing demand for AI and local production [5]

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Buy" rating [7][5][33] Core Viewpoints - The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US increases tax credits for semiconductor manufacturers building new factories from 25% to 35%, which is expected to significantly lower expansion costs and encourage companies like TSMC, Intel, and Micron to accelerate their projects in the US [3][11][21] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has shown a continued upward trend, supported by strong capital expenditures and positive long-term technology demand expectations, with a year-to-date increase of 12.46% as of July 3, 2025 [4][15] - The demand for AI-related hardware is expected to rise due to the proliferation of AI large models and devices like AI smart glasses and AI smartphones, driving steady growth in the market for high-performance Ethernet switches, advanced storage products, GPUs, and edge computing chips [5][33] Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the semiconductor industry, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector [7][5][33] Market Overview - The semiconductor industry index experienced a decline of 1.18% from June 30 to July 4, 2025, while the broader market indices showed gains [10][13] - The semiconductor equipment sector led the performance among sub-sectors, while other sectors recorded declines [14] Key Legislative Developments - The "Big and Beautiful" Act was signed into law, which is expected to stimulate high-end manufacturing in the US and increase import tariffs on semiconductor manufacturing equipment and high-end chips [11][22] Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Zhaoyi Innovation, Lanke Technology, Juchen Co., Shenkong Co., and Longxin Zhongke, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing trends in the semiconductor market [5][33]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing significant volatility in the first half of 2025, with Chinese technology assets undergoing a profound value reassessment, making them a focal point for global investors [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Southbound capital has accelerated its inflow into the Hong Kong stock market, with a total net inflow of 731.19 billion HKD in the first half of the year, marking a historical high for the same period [2] - Monthly net inflows exceeded 100 billion HKD for four consecutive months from January to April, with April alone seeing a net inflow of 166.67 billion HKD, the second highest on record [2] - The overall trend of southbound capital shows a "buy the dip" strategy, with 30 trading days in the first half recording net inflows exceeding 10 billion HKD, even during market downturns [2] Group 2: Valuation Insights - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the Hang Seng Index, remains attractive from a valuation perspective, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio in January 2025 hovering in single digits, indicating a significant valuation advantage [3] Group 3: Technology Sector Focus - The "Magnificent Seven" technology giants in the U.S. have seen robust growth, and similar companies in Hong Kong, such as Xiaomi, Lenovo, BYD, SMIC, Alibaba, Tencent, and Meituan, are gaining investor attention [6] - Xiaomi is positioned to benefit from AI applications and is expanding into the electric vehicle market, with a focus on new car releases and growth in smart hardware [6][8] - Lenovo is expected to see demand recovery in PCs and servers driven by AI investments, with a strategic focus on emerging markets [7] - BYD aims to achieve a sales target of 5.5 million vehicles in 2025, leveraging its smart transformation strategy [8] - SMIC is benefiting from the restructuring of the global supply chain, with a focus on maintaining high utilization rates in its mature production lines [8] - Alibaba is poised to capitalize on the surge in AI demand, enhancing its cloud services and e-commerce market share [9] - Tencent is focusing on AI integration in social advertising and gaming, with expectations for significant advancements in its product offerings [9] - Meituan is exploring growth opportunities in local consumption, particularly in the food delivery market and through its retail and technology strategy [9] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about the Hong Kong stock market in the second half of 2025, suggesting a "barbell" strategy that balances growth and dividend opportunities [10][11] - Key sectors to watch include technology driven by AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, emerging consumer markets, and stable high-yield sectors like banking and utilities [10][11]

Group 1 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" positions artificial intelligence as a core focus of industrial policy, reflecting a clear progression in policy priorities over the past five plans, from heavy industry to digital economy and technological self-reliance [8][13][25] - The AI industry is experiencing rapid growth, with foundational infrastructure still in its early stages and a surge in general AI applications [8][5] - The report highlights the increasing importance of AI in various sectors, including office efficiency, marketing, and ERP systems, indicating a broad penetration of AI technologies across industries [8][5] Group 2 - In the electronics sector, AI infrastructure is expected to maintain high growth, with new players emerging in AI computing and significant advancements in AI hardware from leading companies like Qualcomm and Apple [8][5] - The media sector is anticipated to see accelerated application and commercialization of AI products, with a focus on AI agents, companionship, multimodal AI, and AI in education [8][5] - The communication sector is advised to monitor developments in AI and edge computing, particularly following positive guidance from Marvell and the launch of Xiaomi's AI glasses [8][5] Group 3 - The humanoid robotics sector is viewed positively for its commercialization pace, with a focus on three core areas: product development, customer engagement, and application scenarios [8][5] - In the automotive industry, there are opportunities for investment in new vehicle cycles and low-positioned components, despite current low enthusiasm for robotics and intelligent driving chains [8][5] - The report recommends a selection of companies across various sectors, including Shenghong Technology, Huidian Technology, and Alibaba, as part of a curated investment strategy in the AI landscape [8][9]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Overview - The conference call pertains to **中科创达 (Zhongke Chuangda)**, focusing on its performance in the **AI, mobile, automotive, and IoT industries** for 2025 [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Mobile Business - The mobile business is experiencing growth in 2025, reversing the decline seen in 2024, driven by a resurgence in AI mobile development demand and the launch of Qualcomm's new chips [2][3]. - The overall performance in Q1 2025 showed a **24.69% year-on-year growth**, with significant contributions from the mobile sector due to AI integration [3][5]. - The introduction of Qualcomm's JFLA chip specifically designed for AI mobile applications is expected to generate new development demands, leading to a system-level recovery and new R&D growth [5][6]. Automotive Business - The automotive business is primarily focused on software development, including cockpit driving and architecture integration, with a customer base comprising over **60% domestic and 35% overseas clients** [4][15]. - The company is enhancing its AI capabilities in the automotive sector, with the latest version of DSOS further defining trends in AI within the automotive industry [3][4]. - DuerOS aims to support the integration of cockpit systems through partnerships with major chip manufacturers like NVIDIA and Qualcomm, providing high-tech solutions to automakers [13]. IoT Business - The IoT sector is expanding with a diverse product lineup, including robots, AR/VR/MR devices, AI glasses, and edge computing devices, all integrated with AI technologies [2][8]. - The latest AI glasses utilize a dual-chip architecture from Qualcomm, enhancing performance and user interaction capabilities [8][9]. Research and Development - The company plans to increase R&D investments, particularly in AI and key technology areas, to keep pace with rapid technological advancements [4][18]. - AI programming tools are significantly improving software development efficiency, allowing engineers to focus on more creative tasks and enhancing overall system capabilities [24]. Financial Health - Accounts receivable are expected to increase steadily due to larger project scales, but cash flow is improving due to good credit management with major clients [20]. - Inventory primarily consists of IoT-related hardware, including modules and complete systems, indicating a focus on integrated product offerings [21]. Strategic Partnerships - Collaboration with ByteDance in the IoT field is fostering innovation in AI applications, particularly in automotive and smart hardware sectors [7]. - The establishment of a joint laboratory with ByteDance aims to leverage both companies' strengths in product technology and market reach [7]. Additional Important Information - The company is actively expanding its global footprint, with development centers in North America, Japan, and Europe to cater to local automotive and IoT markets [15]. - The AI glasses and MR products are developed on various chip platforms, predominantly Qualcomm, reflecting industry trends [10]. - The company is focusing on enhancing the delivery quality of its robotics products, which are primarily targeted at industrial applications [22][23]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic direction and market performance across its core business segments.