对话 2026 年关键词：科技篇 20151223 摘要 当前 A 股非金融静态市盈率达 36 倍，科创板估值处于高位，剩余流动 性或面临压力，M2 增速虽上升但社融未显著增长，资金流入金融市场， 小盘股和北证表现突出，未来央行宽松力度可能减弱。 高估值或为未来业绩增长的提前反映，类似 2021-2022 年新能源行业， 业绩兑现后可能迎来第二波上涨，增长驱动的估值仍有提升空间。端侧 及应用端如消费电子等板块存在更多机会。 公募基金在电子、医药、电信三大行业持仓已达 50%，超配难度增加， 业绩增长将导致分化，小盘股和主题概念股承压。豆包 AI 手机引发市场 关注，为云厂商提供了新的变现渠道。 AI 手机通过系统层革新提供更优秀的操作界面，吸引消费者付费，手机 厂商需积极参与，否则可能被淘汰。云厂商与手机厂商合作形成外循环， 实现造血能力，进一步投资训练和推理业务。 未来五年人工智能将快速增长，模型厂商和云厂商将优化训练，推出更 优质的模型。2026 年看好海外算力领域，特别是英伟达产业链公司， 如 PCB、光模块等，以及工业富联。 Q&A 过去一年，AI 技术在科技行业的表现如何？未来的估值和赛道有哪些值得 ...

[Table_Rank] 评级： 看好 韩杨 科技行业分析师 SAC 执证编号：S0110525060002 hanyang@sczq.com.cn 电话：010-81152681 [Table_Chart] 市场指数走势（最近 1 年） 相关研究 [Table_Title] 算力链高景气，消费电子迎 AI 新周期 [Table_ReportDate] 电子 | 行业深度报告 | 2025.12.23 核心观点 AI 算力：（1）北美算力：AI 大模型算力需求持续刚性扩张，北美算力 产业链在服务器组装、高端 PCB、光模块等环节具备成熟产能与技术壁 垒，是算力基础设施建设的核心支撑环节，建议关注：工业富联、沪电 股份，相关标的：胜宏科技、景旺电子、中际旭创、新易盛、天孚通信。 （2）国产算力：AI 大模型与国内芯片厂已逐步形成技术协同的完整生 态，叠加国产芯片厂产能持续扩张，国产算力芯片在自主可控+供应链 安全的双重逻辑下，有望加速打入国内算力基础设施供应链，建议关注： 北方华创、兆易创新，相关标的：中芯国际、寒武纪-U、海光信息。 AI 端侧：（1）AI 手机：AI 手机成为消费电子"换机+创新"的核心载体 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated positively, with a focus on strong growth potential in AI-related sectors and semiconductor markets [30]. Core Insights - Micron's revenue guidance for Q1 FY2026 reached $13.6 billion, a 21% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 57% year-over-year increase, marking a historical high for three consecutive quarters [2]. - The company anticipates Q2 revenue to hit a record $18.7 billion, with a gross margin projected to rise to 68% and earnings per share expected to reach $8.42 [2]. - The demand for DRAM and NAND is expected to remain tight through 2026, with Micron currently meeting only 50% to two-thirds of key customer demand [2]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for HBM is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 40%, increasing from $35 billion in 2025 to $100 billion by 2028 [2]. - The semiconductor industry is expected to see significant price increases, with DRAM average selling prices (ASP) projected to rise by about 58% year-over-year in 2026, and NAND Flash revenue expected to reach $110.5 billion, also reflecting a 58% increase [2][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Consumer Electronics - The expansion of C-end application scenarios is expected to drive growth, particularly in the Apple supply chain and smart glasses [6]. - AI applications are anticipated to accelerate, with various manufacturers launching AI smart glasses and other products [6]. 2. PCB - The demand for copper-clad laminates is expected to remain high, driven by automotive and industrial control sectors, alongside AI volume production [7]. - The PCB industry is maintaining a high level of prosperity, with expectations for price increases in the fourth quarter [7]. 3. Semiconductor Industry - The storage sector is entering a clear upward trend, with supply-side reductions and increased demand from cloud computing companies [26]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is also expected to see robust growth, with significant increases in global semiconductor equipment shipments projected [28]. 4. AI and ASIC Demand - The demand for ASICs is expected to surge, particularly from major players like Google, Amazon, Meta, OpenAI, and Microsoft, with explosive growth anticipated in 2026-2027 [5][30]. - The AI hardware supply chain is expected to continue performing well, with strong orders and production capacity expansion [30]. 5. Key Companies - Companies such as Micron, North Huachuang, and others are highlighted for their strong performance and growth potential in the semiconductor and AI sectors [30][35][40].

露，字节跳动此次合作旨在构建新型流量变现通道，通过向手机厂商开放流量分发与会员订阅收益分成，探 索免收定制开发费及 Token 销售分成的合作模式，当前方案仍处初期讨论阶段。 合作计划将优先覆盖 2000 元以上中端机型，首批通过新机预装实施，后续以 OTA 升级扩展至存量机型。字 节跳动内部设定 1.5-2 亿台设备规模的目标，其海外渠道优势可能成为重点投放方向。 IT之家 12 月 19 日消息，据智通财经今日报道，字节跳动正与 vivo、联想、传音等硬件厂商推进 AI 手机合作计划，拟通过预装 AIGC 插件获取用户入口。 多位 vivo 员工证实，字节跳动已与 vivo 确立合作意向，具体方案仍在商讨中。截至IT之家发稿，相关企业未对合作事宜作出回应。 报道显示，vivo 此前曾探索与腾讯的 AI 大模型深度合作，因商业化路径存在分歧未达成一致。知情人士透 消息人士透露，字节跳动 AI 手机项目团队规模已超千人，此前与 OPPO 的接洽未达成合作。中兴手机是目 前字节跳动官方披露的唯一合作厂商，魅族科技则已主动发出合作邀约。 字节跳动此前声明称，旗下豆包应用正与多家手机厂商洽谈助手级合作，并明确表示无 ...

2025 年 12 月 12 日 行业策略 看好/维持 ◼ 走势比较 (20%) (4%) 12% 28% 44% 60% 24/12/12 25/2/22 25/5/5 25/7/16 25/9/26 25/12/7 电子 沪深300 ◼ 子行业评级 相关研究报告 证券分析师：张世杰 E-MAIL：zhangsj@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523020001 证券分析师：罗平 E-MAIL：luoping@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524030001 电子 电子 端侧创新促内需，科技发展强产业 事件：中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日-11 日在北京召开。 会议明确了明年经济工作八大重点任务，其中"坚持内需主导，建设强大 国内市场"是首要任务。会议中提到的，扩大优质商品和服务供给；优化 "两新"政策实施等方面，对电子行业而言，AI 端侧创新可以提供全新 的电子消费品，有望通过现有品类"升级+扩展"进一步拉动电子产品市 场的消费活力。据弗若斯特沙利文预测，全球端侧 AI 市场将在 2025-2029 年间实现跨越式增长，市场规模预计从 3219 亿元跃升至 12230 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the predictions for the AI industry in 2026, highlighting that AI will evolve from merely an efficiency tool to a transformative force across various sectors, including industrial manufacturing, enterprise software, and personal experiences [3]. Group 1: Infrastructure and Data Management - "Agent Native" infrastructure will become essential, focusing on the handling of unstructured and multimodal data, which presents significant entrepreneurial opportunities [6][8]. - Companies face challenges with data entropy, as 80% of internal knowledge exists in unstructured formats, leading to inefficiencies in AI applications [7][9]. - The future infrastructure must adapt to handle massive concurrent requests from AI agents, requiring a redesign of control systems to manage complex task coordination [11][12]. Group 2: Consumer AI Products - The focus of consumer AI products will shift from "help me" to "see me," emphasizing deeper user understanding and connection rather than just task completion [19]. - AI will enhance user retention by creating products that resonate with users on a personal level, leading to stronger engagement [19][20]. Group 3: Vertical Industry Opportunities - The majority of AI market opportunities will lie outside Silicon Valley, particularly in traditional vertical industries such as manufacturing and logistics [31]. - AI applications in vertical sectors will evolve from information processing to collaborative models, enhancing efficiency and decision-making [32]. Group 4: Financial and Healthcare Innovations - Financial institutions will face pressure to upgrade their systems to AI-native infrastructures, which will significantly enhance operational efficiency and data integration [35]. - A new consumer segment, "Healthy MAUs," will emerge in healthcare, focusing on proactive health monitoring and personalized services [36]. Group 5: New Business Models and Educational Institutions - AI will shift business models from cost reduction to revenue enhancement, with companies leveraging AI to optimize decision-making and improve client outcomes [23]. - The first AI-native university is expected to emerge, focusing on real-time learning and adaptive systems, preparing graduates for a workforce increasingly integrated with AI [53][56]. Group 6: Future of Interaction and Content Creation - The interaction with AI will evolve to a "no prompt box" model, where AI proactively assists users based on observed behavior rather than requiring explicit commands [27]. - Video content will transform into immersive environments, allowing users to engage interactively rather than passively [44][46]. Group 7: Automation and Workflow Optimization - AI will automate repetitive tasks in cybersecurity, allowing professionals to focus on higher-value activities [41]. - The simplification and parallelization of workflows will enable employees to manage multiple tasks seamlessly, enhancing overall productivity [39].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the technology sector, particularly focusing on AI computing infrastructure and end-side AI innovations [1][24]. Core Insights - The global technology industry is expected to experience a dual trend of differentiated terminal demand and accelerated AI innovation by 2026, driven by rapid iterations of AI large models [1][24]. - The report highlights two main investment themes: 1) AI computing infrastructure, where VR/ASIC architecture upgrades will drive growth in ODM and component suppliers; 2) End-side AI innovations, particularly in AI smartphones, PCs, and glasses, with companies like Luxshare Precision, Hontai Precision, BYD Electronics, Sunny Optical, AAC Technologies, and Xiaomi Group being key players [1][24]. Summary by Sections Server Market - The global server market is projected to be dominated by AI infrastructure investments, with AI server shipments expected to grow by 50% year-on-year to 2.32 million units in 2026 [2][25]. - The market will see a "GPU/ASIC dual-drive" pattern, with VR/ASIC architecture reshaping value and driving demand for connectors, cables, and power supply components [2][25]. Smartphone Market - Global smartphone shipments are anticipated to decline by 5% year-on-year to 1.18 billion units in 2026, primarily affecting low-end models due to macro uncertainties and rising storage costs [2][25]. - However, the high-end market remains resilient, with Apple expected to launch innovative products, including the first foldable iPhone and AI-driven devices [2][25]. AR/VR Market - The report forecasts that global AI glasses shipments will exceed 10 million units by 2026, marking a significant growth in the wearable technology sector [2][25]. - Major tech companies are accelerating their investments in AR/VR, with advancements in optical technologies expected to unlock further potential in the coming years [2][25]. PC and Automotive Electronics - The global PC market is expected to face challenges, with a projected 2% decline in shipments to 275 million units in 2026, influenced by the end of the Windows 11 upgrade cycle and rising storage costs [2][25]. - AI PCs are expected to penetrate the market significantly, with projections indicating that they will account for over 50% of shipments by 2026 [2][25]. Memory Price Impact - The report discusses the impact of rising memory prices on the technology supply chain, predicting that short-term pressures will affect mid-to-low-end consumer markets while high-end products may buffer the cost increases [27][30].

Market Overview - On December 9, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.37%, and the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.39%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.61%[3] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1.9 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 130 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day[1] Sector Performance - The majority of industry sectors experienced declines, with the non-ferrous metals sector dropping more than 3%[1] - The top three sectors for capital inflow were components, communication equipment, and military electronics, while industrial metals, securities, and liquor saw the largest outflows[3] Investment Opportunities - The optical communication and consumer electronics sectors remain hot, driven by the global AI computing race and government policies aiming to create a trillion-level consumer electronics market[2] - New products like AI glasses and AI phones are expected to boost performance in the industry chain[2] Policy and Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau emphasized a more proactive fiscal policy to stimulate consumption, focusing on public service investments and targeted measures to enhance consumer spending[4] - The China Investment Corporation reported total assets of $1.57 trillion and net assets of $1.37 trillion as of December 31, 2024, with a 6.92% annualized net return on foreign investments over the past decade[6] Fund Market Dynamics - The public fund issuance market remains active, with 38 new funds expected to launch in the week of December 8 to 14, 2025, maintaining a high level of activity[11] - Over 60% of actively managed equity funds underperformed their benchmarks over the past three years, prompting many fund companies to tighten internal reviews[12]

AI 手机加速迭代，ASIC 市场火热 20251207 摘要 AI 手机雏形已现，豆包手机展示了 AI 助手在日常场景的应用，通过自然 语言指令完成任务，类似苹果 Siri 的升级方向，预计 2026 年苹果、三 星、谷歌将跟进 Agent 应用。 定制化架构芯片（ASIC）通过牺牲通用性加速特定算法，降低应用成本； 英伟达 GPU 保留灵活性服务全行业开发者。短期内 ASIC 不会完全取代 GPU，两者将共同推动 AI 基础设施迭代。 英伟达 CUDA toolkit 13.1 版本是 20 年来最大更新，首次将 Tensor Core 函数抽象到 Python 层级，加速 GPU 软件栈进步，提升开发者生 态易用性，应对大模型发展趋势。 全球 AI 算力投资节奏快，模型端创新不断，云端算力需求强劲。2026 年创新节奏预计不落后于 2025 年，Gemini 3、GPT-5.2 等新模型发布 值得关注。 AI 手机端侧运行中小参数模型面临散热、续航和内存瓶颈。未来可能通 过蒸馏高参数模型解决，存储涨价背景下，苹果在硬件创新方面更具看 点。 Q&A 近期豆包与中兴合作推出 AI 手机预览版后，市场对 AI ...

2025 年 12 月 6 日 策略研究 国内外利好共振，市场有所回暖 ——策略周专题（2025 年 12 月第 1 期） 要点 本周 A 股市场出现回暖 受市场风险偏好抬升影响，本周 A 股市场出现上涨。受市场情绪好转、风险偏 好抬升影响，本周 A 股市场出现上涨，主要宽基指数大多上涨。在主要宽基指 数中，创业板指表现最好，涨跌幅为 1.9%，而科创 50 表现最差，涨跌幅为-0.1%。 目前万得全 A 估值处于 2010 年以来 85.7%分位数。 行业方面，有色金属、通信、国防军工表现相对较好。分行业来看，本周申万一 级行业涨跌互现。有色金属、通信、国防军工等行业表现相对较好，涨跌幅分别 达到了 5.3%、3.7%、2.8%。相比之下，传媒、房地产、美容护理等行业表现 相对靠后，涨跌幅分别达到了-3.9%、-2.2%、-2.0%。 本周重要事件 政策及会议方面，国家航天局设立商业航天司、特朗普或于明年初公布新任美联 储主席提名人选等。国家航天局已于近期设立商业航天司，相关业务正在逐步开 展，标志着我国商业航天产业迎来专职监管机构；美国总统特朗普 12 月 2 日在 白宫举行的内阁会议上说，他很可能在 2 ...