朝闻国盛 杰克逊霍尔：不止放鸽，还有政策框架修订 今日概览 证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 08 25 年 月 日 【宏观】高频半月观—8 月以来出口表现仍强——20250824 【宏观】杰克逊霍尔：不止放鸽，还有政策框架修订——20250823 重磅研报 【固定收益】资金宽松，杠杆下降——流动性和机构行为跟踪—— 20250823 【银行】2025上半年各地信贷增速及贷款利率有何变化？——20250824 【电子】消费电子进入新品发布旺季，板块估值重塑可期——20250824 【建筑】联检科技（301115.SZ）-并购拓疆步入收获期，检测龙头迎新 增长拐点——20250824 【食品饮料】安琪酵母（600298.SH）-以史为鉴，大周期起点 —— 20250824 【金融工程】食品饮料终于迎来日线级别上涨——20250824 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周估值分数继续下行——20250823 【固定收益】债对股的敏感性或下降——20250824 【固定收益】化债见成果——各地 2025 年 H1 经济财政债务盘点—— 20250823 【电力设备】威力传动（300904. ...

AI 眼镜催化来临，关注端侧 AI 板块 20250820 摘要 2025 年全球智能眼镜市场快速增长，AI 音频眼镜销量同比增长三倍， AR 眼镜预计全年销量增长 30%-40%，整体智能眼镜销量预计达 550 万至 1,000 万台。 智能音频眼镜成本因去掉光学系统而大幅降低，主流产品价格在 1,000- 2000 人民币左右，通过采用国产芯片方案可进一步降低成本。AR 眼镜 成本虽高，但技术进步和规模效应使其售价降至万元以内。 歌尔股份在智能耳机供应链中占据重要地位，尤其在整机代工方面。核 心技术壁垒在于光学系统和 Soc，舜宇光学等公司值得关注。 歌尔股份和水晶光电在 AI 眼镜领域均有布局，提供全套的光机加光波导 解决方案。兰特光学是玻璃晶圆领域的主要玩家。Micro LED 和 Micro OLED 有望在显示屏领域胜出。 端侧 AI 市场中，瑞芯微的 RK3,588 芯片需求旺盛，恒玄科技的 BS 系 列芯片广泛应用于国内 AI 眼镜方案，兆易创新的 3D DVR 产品逐步落 地，乐鑫科技下游与 IoT 数字化升级相关。 Q&A 基于 AI 眼镜产业链的最新变化，Meta 在 2025 年有哪些 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the electronic sector, particularly focusing on AI computing power, consumer electronics, and the PCB industry, with a specific emphasis on the company Deep South Circuit (深南电路) and its market dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments AI Computing Power and H20 Supply Resumption - The resumption of H20 supply is expected to enhance productivity for CSP manufacturers in the inference segment, although its impact on large model training is limited due to lower performance compared to leading products like A800 or A100 [2][5] - H20's supply resumption may influence the delivery schedule of domestic computing power in the second half of the year, but the long-term development direction remains unchanged [5] Consumer Electronics Market Trends - The smartphone market is projected to be relatively flat in the second half of the year, with Apple potentially facing structural opportunities due to innovations in iPhone 17 and new AirPods versions [7][11] - Vietnam's low tariff advantages have alleviated market concerns regarding tariff uncertainties, leading to a rebound in the valuation of the supply chain [8] Deep South Circuit's Growth and Market Position - Deep South Circuit is expected to benefit from the rising demand for AI computing power, with significant growth in high-layer PCBs and high-end substrates anticipated [18] - The company is accelerating capacity expansion with projects in Guangzhou, Nantong, and Thailand, aiming to meet increasing AI-related demands [19] Financial Projections for Deep South Circuit - Revenue for Deep South Circuit is projected to grow by 18% to 21.1 billion yuan in 2025 and by 20% to 25.4 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit expected to increase by 22% to 2.28 billion yuan and by 37% to 3.12 billion yuan respectively [21] Other Important Insights Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - Following the announcement of H20's resumption, core domestic computing power stocks initially saw a slight decline but rebounded significantly, indicating rapid market sentiment adjustment [6] Investment Opportunities in Consumer Electronics - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies with stable fundamentals and unique advantages in emerging fields, such as AI servers, automotive electronics, and AR/VR glasses [15] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Shunyu, Highwei, and Industrial Fulian Huqin, which are positioned to benefit from the ongoing trends in the electronic sector [15] Optical and ODM Segments - The optical and ODM segments are identified as areas of interest due to improved competitive dynamics and potential for margin expansion [13] Future of AI Glasses - AI glasses are expected to undergo significant changes in the second half of the year, with advancements in display technology likely to increase consumer adoption [9][10] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the electronic sector's current landscape and future opportunities.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **AI industry** and its implications for the **Apple supply chain** and related companies, particularly in the context of the ongoing AI innovation cycle in the United States and its impact on China [1][3][6][7]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **AI Innovation Cycle**: The U.S. is entering a new AI innovation cycle driven by large model innovations, which are expected to expand into applications and end-user devices within the next six months to a year [3][4]. 2. **U.S.-China AI Gap**: The AI gap between the U.S. and China is anticipated to widen, with the U.S. making rapid advancements due to large-scale delivery systems, while China's progress is expected to be more gradual [6][7]. 3. **Apple's AI Strategy**: Apple is shifting from developing its own AI models to utilizing third-party models due to challenges in recruiting top AI talent in Silicon Valley [5][11][14]. 4. **Apple Supply Chain Dynamics**: The Apple supply chain is benefiting from AI innovations, with companies like Luxshare Precision and others seeing stock price increases due to expectations of tariff relaxations [1][8]. 5. **Production Challenges**: Foxconn faces challenges in expanding iPhone production in India due to the return of Chinese employees, which has affected production efficiency [10]. 6. **Tariff Policies**: The U.S. has implemented complex tariff policies affecting imports from China and Vietnam, which could impact the Apple supply chain and related companies [9][12][13]. Additional Important Content 1. **Future Product Innovations**: Apple is expected to launch new products, including smart glasses and AR glasses, with low-power chips anticipated to be mass-produced by late 2026 or early 2027 [18][19]. 2. **Market Expectations**: The market is optimistic about Apple's AI innovations becoming clearer in the next six months to a year, with significant developments expected [11]. 3. **Stock Selection Strategies**: Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong growth potential and those launching new products, particularly in the context of the upcoming foldable devices [16]. 4. **Company Performance**: Industrial Fulian (富联) is projected to achieve a profit increase of approximately 40% year-on-year, driven by the shipment of its 200 series products [2][21]. 5. **Valuation Insights**: BYD Electronics is noted for its low valuation and potential growth from Apple's new product launches, particularly in the foldable device segment [22][23]. 6. **Emerging Opportunities**: Companies like Hongteng Precision and others are expected to benefit from AI-related innovations and the growing demand for optical and assembly components in the AR/VR space [24][25][26]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of the AI industry, Apple's strategic shifts, and the implications for its supply chain and related companies.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference primarily discusses the **computer industry** and **AI technology** developments, particularly focusing on the transition from training to application in AI investments, with a significant emphasis on the **inference demand** expected to exceed 70% of overall computing power needs by 2025[1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **AI Investment Shift**: The investment logic in AI is shifting from training to application, with inference demand projected to grow significantly, indicating a widening supply-demand gap in computing power[1][2]. - **Market Performance**: The computer industry experienced a "rise and fall" trend in the first half of 2025, with initial optimism driven by the release of DeepSeek, which later faced a market correction due to underperformance expectations for 2024[4][5]. - **Financial Metrics**: The computer industry showed year-on-year revenue improvement, but the net profit growth rate outpaced revenue growth due to significant cost optimization. However, the overall asset-liability ratio is rising, and ROE is declining, indicating the industry is still in a bottom-seeking phase[6][7][8]. - **AI Agent Technology**: AI Agent technology has made unexpected advancements in environmental perception, planning, tool usage, and memory capabilities, but the actual product deployment and user adoption remain below expectations due to the absence of a "killer app"[10][12]. - **DeepSeek R2 Release**: The anticipated release of DeepSeek R2 is expected to catalyze AI development in the second half of 2025, with potential improvements in computing power efficiency and performance[13][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Global Supply-Demand Gap**: The global supply-demand gap for inference computing power is expected to continue expanding, with significant demand for H200 GPUs projected at approximately 3.8 million units in 2025 and over 13 million units in 2026[3][16][17]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Current investment opportunities in the AI industry are concentrated in areas such as NVIDIA's computing power chain, domestic AI application ecosystems, and AI Agent application tracks[18][19]. - **Solid-State Battery Market**: The solid-state battery market is entering a production phase in 2025, but its penetration rate remains low due to the dominance of traditional liquid electrolyte batteries. The transition to solid-state technology is expected to accelerate in specific applications, particularly in electric vehicles[20][23]. - **Technological Innovations**: Innovations in solid-state battery manufacturing processes, such as dry electrode technology, are identified as key investment areas, alongside the evolving roles of separators and electrode materials in battery performance[24][25][26][27][28]. Conclusion - The conference highlights a transformative period for the computer and AI industries, with significant shifts in investment focus, technological advancements, and emerging market opportunities. The anticipated developments in AI applications and solid-state battery technologies are expected to shape future investment landscapes.

Summary of AI Glasses Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The global AR smart glasses shipment volume is expected to significantly increase in 2024, with Meta and LiPeng's collaboration achieving sales of approximately 800,000 to 900,000 units. The domestic market remains relatively small, but the second-generation product from Thunderbird has become a bestseller due to improved camera quality and integration with large models, marking a turning point for the industry [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Key Pain Points**: The main challenges for AI smart glasses include display technology optimization, battery life enhancement, cost control, and increasing market acceptance. Technological innovation and market strategy adjustments are crucial for industry growth [1][5][6]. - **Core Components**: Key components of AI glasses include the Qualcomm XR2 chip (provided by Yidao Information), batteries from Yiwei Lithium Energy/ BYD, cameras from Crystal Optoelectronics/Sony, and optical display systems from Shanghai Xianyao Technology, gradually integrating large models [1][8][9]. - **Technological Breakthroughs**: Major breakthroughs in smart glasses technology focus on silicon carbide waveguides and Micro LED. The use of inorganic material etching processes by companies like United Imaging improves waveguide reliability and reduces costs, while Micro LED offers high brightness, making it more competitive in outdoor scenarios [1][10][13]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - **Sales Growth**: The global sales revenue for AR smart glasses reached a million-level in 2024, indicating the product's entry into a growth phase with potential for large-scale expansion. Domestic manufacturers like Rokid, Chargeurs, and Link 5 are also beginning to produce small AR smart glasses to meet market demand [4][30]. - **Future Projections**: The combination of Micro LED and waveguide technology may become the ultimate display solution, but improvements in resolution and brightness are still needed for broader application [10][13]. Additional Important Insights - **Rokid's Transition**: Rokid, originally focused on smart speakers, shifted to AR glasses in 2020 due to market pressures and has primarily targeted the B-end market initially. Their revenue from B-end products was around 80-90 million in 2021-2022, while C-end contributions were minimal [17][21]. - **Challenges in Sales**: Rokid's actual sales figures may not reflect the pre-order numbers due to inventory pressures from distributors. The company plans to launch new products based on the sales performance of existing models [19][20][21]. - **Technical Limitations**: Current AI glasses face issues such as weight, battery life, and interaction capabilities. The lightest AR glasses weigh around 70-80 grams, but prolonged wear can still be uncomfortable. Solid-state battery technology is still in its infancy, with significant advancements expected in the next two to three years [7][11]. Conclusion The AI smart glasses industry is at a pivotal moment, with significant growth potential driven by technological advancements and market strategies. However, challenges such as cost, user experience, and market acceptance must be addressed to achieve widespread adoption.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **New Consumption Sector**: The new consumption sector is expected to show strong growth in 2025, contrasting with the sluggish performance of traditional consumption. Key drivers include product innovation, marketing transformation, and policy support. Investors should focus on companies with sustainable innovation capabilities and stable high growth [1][2][3]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Home Appliance Industry**: The home appliance sector is affected by adjustments in national subsidy policies, but overall subsidies will not cease. Offline consumption guidance policies will impact the competitive landscape, favoring companies with offline sales networks. Leading white goods companies like Midea are seen as good investment opportunities after valuation adjustments [1][4][5]. - **Small Home Appliances**: Competition in the small appliance sector is easing, leading to improved profit margins. Companies like Beiding are gaining attention due to governance improvements and channel expansion, aligning with the trend of aesthetic economy [1][9]. - **Light Industry**: The new consumption landscape includes promising areas such as e-cigarettes, AR glasses, trendy blind boxes, and personal care products. Leading companies like Pop Mart are performing well, and domestic brands are rapidly increasing market share through new channels like Douyin [1][10]. - **Pet Industry**: The pet sector showed strong performance during the 618 shopping festival, with domestic brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. gaining attention. Companies like Ruipubio and Petty Co. are also noteworthy, while the pig farming sector may face profit declines due to falling pig prices and slowing production capacity [1][15][16]. Additional Important Content - **Investment Directions**: Future investment directions focus on companies with continuous changes, stable high growth, and those that can tell new stories to gain market recognition. Recommended companies include Ru Yuchen and Jinbo Biological in the personal care sector, and emerging beverage and snack companies like Yanjin, Weilong, and Bailong Chuangyuan, which are expected to maintain around 40% growth in 2025 [2][3]. - **Subsidy Policy Impact**: The subsidy policy will continue in the second half of the year, although some regions may temporarily pause it due to rapid progress. The aim is to stimulate the economy rather than directly increase profits for platforms or companies. New subsidy policies may emerge to guide offline consumption [5][6]. - **High Tariffs on Exports**: The U.S. tariffs on imported steel and aluminum negatively impact white goods that rely heavily on these materials. Leading white goods companies may face pressure in the second half of the year, but if valuations adjust to around 10 to 12 times, companies like Midea could present good investment opportunities [7][8]. - **E-cigarette Market**: The e-cigarette market is a rapidly growing sector globally, with harm-reduction products gradually replacing traditional cigarettes. Companies like British American Tobacco and their contract manufacturers are expected to perform well [11]. - **AR Glasses**: AR glasses are seen as a significant product in the new consumption field, with several new products being launched. Companies like Inpax and Mingyue are recommended for investment [12]. - **Retail Sector Recommendations**: The retail sector's investment focus is on new consumption areas like gold jewelry and tea drinks, with leading companies like Laopu Gold showing strong performance. The education sector, particularly private high schools and training institutions, is also highlighted for potential growth [17]. Catalysts and Events - **Upcoming Catalysts**: Notable upcoming events include the launch of new products in the AI glasses industry and other AI products, which could create investment opportunities. Companies like Kangnait Optical are expected to perform well due to their competitive advantages [18][19].

Summary of Conference Call on Consumer Electronics Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the consumer electronics industry, particularly the performance and outlook of major companies like Apple, Huawei, and ByteDance in the context of AI integration and market dynamics [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Trade Tensions and Tariff Concerns**: Market fears regarding trade tensions and tariffs are considered exaggerated. Apple has prepared hundreds of millions in costs to mitigate impacts, indicating that the supply chain and consumer pricing will remain stable [1][3][5]. 2. **iPhone Sales Outlook**: Capital market expectations for iPhone sales in 2025 and 2026 are pessimistic. However, strong sales in the first half of 2025 and upcoming new models are expected to drive demand, potentially exceeding market expectations for inventory [1][6][9]. 3. **AI Development Impact**: The development of AI edge technology has been slower than anticipated, leading to a negative outlook for the Apple supply chain. However, breakthroughs in AI ecosystem construction could significantly enhance investment opportunities in the consumer electronics sector [1][7][8]. 4. **Market Sentiment Recovery**: The consumer electronics sector is expected to recover from its current pessimistic sentiment due to low valuations, strong performance from leading companies, and potential improvements in market expectations [9][10]. 5. **Upcoming Tech Events**: Key events such as Apple's WWDC, Huawei's full-scene launch, and ByteDance's Volcano Engine conference are anticipated to catalyze stock price movements, especially given the low expectations surrounding these events [10][11][12]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Investment Opportunities in Sub-sectors**: There is a focus on traditional smart terminals (phones and PCs) and new smart hardware combined with AI to create new demand. Attention is drawn to core technology upgrades and the performance of leading companies [2][13]. 2. **AI Glasses Market Potential**: The AI glasses industry is expected to undergo a comprehensive upgrade in 2025, with major brands launching new products. Despite previous setbacks, the market is poised for rapid growth due to improved technology and supply chain capabilities [14][19]. 3. **Recommendations for Investment**: Specific companies are highlighted for investment, including Luxshare Precision, Lens Technology, and Lianyi Intelligent Manufacturing, which are seen as undervalued with strong performance potential [17][20]. Conclusion The consumer electronics industry is currently facing challenges, but there are significant opportunities for recovery and growth, particularly through advancements in AI technology and upcoming product launches. The market sentiment is expected to shift positively as actual demand improves and leading companies demonstrate strong performance.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **AI-driven consumer electronics industry**, focusing on the impact of AI applications on traditional smart devices such as smartphones and PCs, as well as emerging technologies like AI glasses and smart driving solutions [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **AI Applications Driving Hardware Upgrades**: The integration of AI is leading to significant upgrades in core components of traditional smart devices, including processors, storage, and cameras. Major brands like Apple and Lenovo are expected to see substantial performance improvements [1][3]. - **Market Potential for New Smart Hardware**: The market for new smart hardware, particularly AI glasses, is projected to grow significantly, with sales expected to exceed ten million units. Meta is anticipated to launch AR glasses in the second half of the year, which will further stimulate market growth [1][8][11]. - **Transformations in Smartphone and PC Supply Chains**: The smartphone and PC supply chains are undergoing notable changes, with innovations in camera technology (e.g., periscope lenses) and cooling solutions becoming prevalent. The introduction of foldable screen technology is expected to be a key growth driver, particularly with Apple's upcoming foldable devices [1][5][7][9]. - **Increased Demand for Storage and Battery Performance**: AI smartphones and PCs will require enhanced storage and battery capabilities, leading to upgrades across the supply chain from battery cells to storage modules. This is expected to improve the profitability of related suppliers [1][10]. Additional Important Content - **Investment Opportunities in Consumer Electronics**: The current low valuation of the consumer electronics sector presents significant investment opportunities, especially as major companies report strong earnings and growth trends for the upcoming quarters [2]. - **Focus on Specific Sub-sectors**: Three key sub-sectors are highlighted for investment: traditional smart terminals (smartphones and PCs), new smart hardware (AI glasses), and smart driving technologies [3][4]. - **Smart Driving Sector Growth**: The smart driving sector is experiencing rapid advancements, with increased demand for high-performance camera modules and LiDAR technology. The number of cameras in advanced driving assistance systems (ADAS) is expected to rise significantly [4][13]. - **Emerging Technologies in Smart Driving**: The demand for high-speed connectors and advanced driving chips is increasing, with domestic companies like Lianxin and Luxshare actively participating in the automotive electronics market [15][16]. - **Key Companies to Watch**: Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong valuations and growth potential, including major players in the supply chain such as Luxshare, Lens Technology, and Gree Electric, as well as innovative firms in niche markets [17][18]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and trends discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future potential of the AI-driven consumer electronics industry.

Summary of Conference Call on Tariff Exemption Impact on the Electronics Industry Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of the U.S. Department of Commerce's tariff exemption measures on the global electronics industry, particularly in the consumer electronics and semiconductor sectors [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - The U.S. implemented reciprocal tariff measures starting April 3, significantly affecting the electronics sector, especially for products imported from China, which heavily relies on U.S. semiconductor imports [2]. - The announcement on April 12 allowing applications for tariff exemptions on 20 product categories, including smartphones, smartwatches, computers, and integrated circuits, alleviates cost pressures on the related supply chains [2][4]. - The tariff exemptions are expected to stabilize terminal shipment volumes and supply chain prices, benefiting manufacturers in mainland China, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia [2]. - The consumer electronics supply chain is projected to continue shifting towards Southeast Asia, with iPhone assembly in India and Mexico expected to rise to over 30% in the coming years [5]. - New growth points identified include the upcoming foldable iPhone, expected to launch in the second half of 2026, and AR glasses, which are anticipated to see a surge in demand starting from Q4 2024 [6][5]. - Companies like Huazhu High-Tech, Dazhu Laser, and Lens Technology are expected to benefit from innovations in foldable technology and AR glasses [6]. - Leading companies such as Luxshare Precision and Dongshan Precision, which saw significant stock price declines due to tariff increases, are expected to recover to previous levels following the tariff exemptions [7]. - The semiconductor industry faces new regulations regarding origin certification, which may increase import costs for international manufacturers like Texas Instruments (TI), providing opportunities for domestic chip manufacturers [9][10]. Additional Important Insights - The tariff exemption is likely to repair market conditions that were negatively impacted by previous tariff increases, with many companies experiencing stock price drops of 30-40% [7]. - The focus on domestic chip manufacturers is accelerating, as they enhance their product definition capabilities and reduce reliance on foreign suppliers, driven by political uncertainties [10][11]. - The semiconductor industry is navigating challenges such as persistent price pressures and new origin rules, but domestic firms are positioned to capitalize on these changes [11][12]. - The upcoming innovations in foldable iPhones and AR glasses are highlighted as having high elasticity and potential for market response in the next six months to a year [8]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the implications of tariff exemptions on the electronics industry, highlighting both challenges and opportunities for various stakeholders.