芯原股份 20251228 摘要 新元股份 2025 年前三季度新签订单 15.93 亿元，65%与 AI 算力相关， 手持订单达 32.86 亿元，营收 22.55 亿元，同比增长 36.64%。一站式 芯片定制服务增长超 50%，先进工艺（28 纳米以下）占比 94%，更先 进工艺（14 纳米以下）占比 81%，AI 算力相关芯片设计业务收入占比 73%。 2025 年前三季度，新元股份量产出货芯片 112 个，另有 47 个量产设 计项目在进行中。数据处理领域需求强劲，第三季度收入同比大涨 180%。 大基金减持新元股份 1.7%股份属正常操作，因一期投资已满十年。大 基金三期拟投资 13 亿元并购逐点半导体项目，显示国家长期支持。上 海国投先导、北京亦庄国投等机构也参与支持该并购。 新元股份四季度新签订单 24.94 亿元，84%以上与 AI 算力相关，涵盖 云端训练和端侧推理项目，包括数据中心服务器、高性能云端设备，以 及 AI PC、AI 手机等端侧设备。关注 AR 眼镜、玩具及 iPad 等增量市场。 Q&A 新元股份在 2025 年第四季度的新签订单情况如何？ 截至 2025 年 12 月 2 ...

产业观察 [table_Header]2025.12.15 [Table_Report] 往期回顾 【AI 产业跟踪-海外】HPE 携手博通推出 AMD "Helios" AI 机架，搭载业界首创纵向扩展以太网 2025.12.10 【数字经济周报】OpenAI 正式发布 GPT-5.2 摘要：数字经济动态事件速览 第 43 期（2025.12.6-2025.12.12） [Table_Summary] 半导体板块动态： 汽车电子板块动态： AI 板块动态： 元宇宙板块动态： 风险提示： 产业研究中心 | [Table_Authors] | | | --- | --- | | | 朱峰(分析师) | | | 021-38676284 | | | zhufeng@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522030002 | | | 汪玥(分析师) | | | 021-38031030 | | | wangyue8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525080001 | | | 鲍雁辛(分析师) | | | 0755-23976830 | | | baoyanxin@gtht.com ...

Macro Strategy - The report highlights a shift in policy focus from "preventing and mitigating risks in key areas and external shocks" to "better coordinating domestic economic work and international economic struggles," indicating a more proactive approach to external economic conditions [1][16] - There is a transition from stabilizing asset prices to stabilizing microeconomic entities, emphasizing the importance of employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations over real estate and stock markets [2][16] - The policy language has evolved from "extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments" to "increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts," reflecting a balance between short-term stimulus and long-term economic structure considerations [2][16] Economic Indicators - The report anticipates a continued decline in the growth rate of social financing in November, while export growth is expected to turn positive [3][17] - The ECI supply index is reported at 49.93%, indicating a slight decline, while the demand index is at 49.87%, showing a marginal increase [17] - The report notes that the financing demand remains low, with expectations for November's new loans to be between 450 billion to 500 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease [17] Industry Insights - The semiconductor industry is expected to see structural opportunities driven by the explosion of AI computing power and accelerated domestic production [11] - In the electronics sector, the demand for AI-driven OS agents is anticipated to lead to a smartphone replacement wave, with AR glasses expected to see significant market entry in 2026 [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic enterprises in the storage sector, which are benefiting from increased procurement by cloud service providers, leading to a "super cycle" in pricing [11] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a balanced and proactive ETF allocation strategy in the A-share market, anticipating a period of range-bound trading with potential for sector rotation [7] - Specific recommendations include focusing on companies in the engineering machinery sector that have high export profitability, as well as those in the semiconductor and AI equipment sectors [12]

Market Overview - In November 2025, major indices experienced a decline after reaching a ten-year high earlier in the month, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.67% and the ChiNext Index dropping by 4.23% [5][10] - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic despite short-term fluctuations, supported by improving fundamentals and policy measures aimed at boosting domestic demand [5][37] Economic Environment Analysis - The global economy is expected to remain stable, with the IMF projecting a slight decline in global growth rates from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 [17] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is anticipated to continue its interest rate cuts in December, which could positively influence market conditions [18][34] - Domestic economic indicators show a mixed picture, with manufacturing PMI at 49.2, indicating a slight recovery but still below the expansion threshold [21] Policy Measures - Recent policies are focused on enhancing consumer spending and ensuring a strong start to the 14th Five-Year Plan, with specific measures to stimulate demand across various sectors [25][27] - The central bank is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential for further interest rate cuts and adjustments to enhance market adaptability [28][33] Sector Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight allocation in sectors such as basic chemicals, TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications), electric power equipment, and machinery [38][39] - In the basic chemicals sector, there is a focus on new materials and fine chemicals, driven by national policies aimed at upgrading key industries [39] - The TMT sector is expected to benefit from rapid growth in AI infrastructure and innovations in consumer electronics, particularly with companies like Apple leading the charge [41][42] Industry Insights - The electric power equipment sector is undergoing a transformation, with a shift from price competition to value-driven strategies, particularly in the solar energy segment [47] - The machinery sector is seeing robust demand driven by major infrastructure projects and technological advancements, with a notable increase in exports [49] - The semiconductor industry is poised for growth, particularly in AI-related applications, as domestic companies ramp up production capabilities in response to global demand [46]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the **AI and semiconductor industry**, with a focus on **Huawei** and its AI chip roadmap, as well as collaborations between **NVIDIA** and **Intel**. Core Insights and Arguments - **Huawei's AI Chip Roadmap**: Huawei's roadmap indicates rapid iteration and performance enhancement of its Ascend series chips, with the Ascend 910C set to launch in Q1 2025 and the Ascend 950P2 expected in Q1 2026. These chips utilize SMID, SIMT architectures, and self-developed HBM technology to enhance computing power and memory bandwidth to meet growing demand [1][2] - **Technological Innovations**: Huawei employs supernodes, cluster interconnections, and self-developed HBM technology to compensate for insufficient single-chip computing power, thereby improving memory bandwidth and capacity. The company also implements product tiering for different application scenarios to achieve technological innovation and performance enhancement [1][4][5] - **NVIDIA and Intel Collaboration**: The partnership aims to leverage NVIDIA's strengths in AI chips and GPU acceleration alongside Intel's x86 ecosystem to enhance overall competitiveness and expand market share in data centers and consumer markets [1][8] - **Storage Market Trends**: The storage market is experiencing a price increase, with companies like Nanya Technology and Winbond achieving record revenues due to AI-driven supply-demand tightness. NAND prices are gradually rising, benefiting domestic NAND manufacturers such as Demingli and Capcloud [1][12][13] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **Future AI Developments**: Huawei's reports, including "Smart World 2035" and "Globalization Index 2025," emphasize the transformative potential of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), predicting a tenfold increase in total computing power by 2035 [1][15] - **Differentiated Computing Power Development**: There is a notable difference in computing power development between domestic and international markets, with overseas markets focusing on overall growth while domestic markets emphasize localization. Companies like Haiguang Information and Xingyuan Co. are gaining attention in the cloud and edge chip sectors, respectively [1][16] - **Upcoming Events**: Key upcoming events include Micron's quarterly report on September 23, which may influence market trends, and Alibaba's Cloud Summit, where new developments in AI will be showcased [1][14] - **Macro-Economic and Geopolitical Influences**: The macroeconomic environment and geopolitical factors are impacting the industry, necessitating ongoing monitoring of related dynamics. Huawei's AI chip roadmap is expected to exceed expectations, with weekly updates planned to address market changes [1][18]

Regulatory Governance - Dior (Shanghai) was fined for multiple violations of personal information protection laws, including unauthorized transmission of user data to its French headquarters without proper consent or security measures [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation urged major food delivery platforms to control subsidies and avoid unfair competition, emphasizing the need for improved service quality and consumer experience [3] - The Cyberspace Administration of China took action against Xiaohongshu for failing to manage harmful content effectively, resulting in penalties and a commitment to rectify the issues [4] AI Developments - Alipay launched the first "AI Payment" service in China, allowing users to place orders and make payments through voice commands, initially implemented in Luckin Coffee's AI ordering assistant [7] - Gaode Map introduced the "Gaode Street Ranking," a user behavior-based ranking system that aims to prevent score manipulation and enhance credibility through a combination of user actions and credit ratings [8][9] - Albania became the first country to appoint an AI digital persona, "Diera," as a government minister, marking a significant milestone in the integration of AI in public administration [10] Competitive Landscape - Amazon is reportedly developing consumer-facing AR glasses, codenamed Jayhawk, to compete directly with Meta in the augmented reality market, with a planned release by late 2026 or early 2027 [11]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The export performance remains strong, with August exports expected to exceed expectations, while second-hand housing sales show slight improvement but remain weak overall [5][6] - The Jackson Hole meeting indicated a dovish stance from Powell, with a high probability of interest rate cuts in September and two cuts expected within the year [6][7] - The food and beverage sector has finally seen a daily-level increase, while the oil and petrochemical sectors have also reversed previous downtrends [7][11] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Jackson Hole's policy framework revisions suggest a shift away from the "average inflation target," which may limit long-term rate cuts if inflation remains high [6] - Xiaomi Group reported record revenue and profit in Q2 2025, driven by high-end product offerings and growth in IoT and automotive sectors [32][33] - The construction company Lianjian Technology is expected to see significant growth due to successful mergers and acquisitions, with projected net profits increasing substantially from 0.70 billion to 1.66 billion from 2025 to 2027 [20] - Angel Yeast is anticipated to enter a multi-year upward cycle, with projected net profits of 16.4 billion to 21.9 billion from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a strong recovery [21] - Weilai Transmission, a leader in wind power precision transmission, is expected to turn profitable in 2025, with significant growth in net profits projected for the following years [22] - Muyu Group's pig production volume increased by 44.8% in H1 2025, with a focus on cost reduction, aiming to lower costs to 11 yuan/kg by year-end [41][42]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The global smart glasses market is expected to grow rapidly in 2025, with AI audio glasses sales tripling year-on-year and AR glasses projected to grow by 30%-40%, leading to total smart glasses sales of 5.5 million to 10 million units [1][4] - The cost of smart audio glasses has significantly decreased due to the removal of optical systems, with mainstream products priced around 1,000-2,000 RMB [1][5] - AR glasses, while more expensive, have seen price reductions due to technological advancements and economies of scale, with prices dropping below 10,000 RMB [1][5] Company Insights GoerTek (歌尔股份) - GoerTek holds a significant position in the smart audio glasses supply chain, particularly in OEM manufacturing [1][6] - The company is making progress in its smart glasses business and has improved relationships with major clients, which may lead to increased market share in new AirPods models [3][14] - GoerTek's vertical integration in the glasses sector is expected to enhance profit margins, as it can incorporate acoustic speakers and structural components into its products [1][18] Meta - Meta plans to launch several AI audio glasses and AR glasses in mid-2025, including the second generation of Ribbon and a new AR model with an expected shipment of several hundred thousand units [2] - The AR glasses will feature advanced technology and are priced above $2,000 [2] Other Companies - Huapeng Technology has secured a battery supply share for Meta's new AI glasses, with expectations to increase its share to 50% by 2026 [10] - Awei Electronics has received an order from Meta for 8 million units of its analog chips, contributing significantly to its revenue [11] - Companies like 瑞芯微 (Rockchip), 恒玄科技 (Hengxuan Technology), and 兆易创新 (GigaDevice) are highlighted as key players in the end-side AI market, with strong demand for their chips [9] Market Dynamics - The decline in costs for smart audio and AR glasses is significantly driving market growth [5] - The first quarter of 2025 saw global sales of AI audio glasses reach 600,000 units, a threefold increase year-on-year, largely due to new battery technology [3] - The overall smart glasses sales volume is projected to reach between 5.5 million and 10 million units this year [4] Technological Developments - Advances in optical systems and SoC (System on Chip) technologies are critical barriers in the smart glasses market [6][8] - Future display technologies such as Micro LED and Micro OLED are expected to dominate the display sector [8] Financial Expectations - GoerTek's acquisition of precision component companies is anticipated to significantly enhance its profitability [17] - The Corsor business of Meta is expected to fluctuate, with a strong performance anticipated next year due to new product launches [15] - Sony's PS5-related business is nearing the end of its product lifecycle, but the impact on overall performance is expected to diminish over time [16] This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments in the smart glasses industry and the companies involved, highlighting growth opportunities and technological advancements.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the electronic sector, particularly focusing on AI computing power, consumer electronics, and the PCB industry, with a specific emphasis on the company Deep South Circuit (深南电路) and its market dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments AI Computing Power and H20 Supply Resumption - The resumption of H20 supply is expected to enhance productivity for CSP manufacturers in the inference segment, although its impact on large model training is limited due to lower performance compared to leading products like A800 or A100 [2][5] - H20's supply resumption may influence the delivery schedule of domestic computing power in the second half of the year, but the long-term development direction remains unchanged [5] Consumer Electronics Market Trends - The smartphone market is projected to be relatively flat in the second half of the year, with Apple potentially facing structural opportunities due to innovations in iPhone 17 and new AirPods versions [7][11] - Vietnam's low tariff advantages have alleviated market concerns regarding tariff uncertainties, leading to a rebound in the valuation of the supply chain [8] Deep South Circuit's Growth and Market Position - Deep South Circuit is expected to benefit from the rising demand for AI computing power, with significant growth in high-layer PCBs and high-end substrates anticipated [18] - The company is accelerating capacity expansion with projects in Guangzhou, Nantong, and Thailand, aiming to meet increasing AI-related demands [19] Financial Projections for Deep South Circuit - Revenue for Deep South Circuit is projected to grow by 18% to 21.1 billion yuan in 2025 and by 20% to 25.4 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit expected to increase by 22% to 2.28 billion yuan and by 37% to 3.12 billion yuan respectively [21] Other Important Insights Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - Following the announcement of H20's resumption, core domestic computing power stocks initially saw a slight decline but rebounded significantly, indicating rapid market sentiment adjustment [6] Investment Opportunities in Consumer Electronics - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies with stable fundamentals and unique advantages in emerging fields, such as AI servers, automotive electronics, and AR/VR glasses [15] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Shunyu, Highwei, and Industrial Fulian Huqin, which are positioned to benefit from the ongoing trends in the electronic sector [15] Optical and ODM Segments - The optical and ODM segments are identified as areas of interest due to improved competitive dynamics and potential for margin expansion [13] Future of AI Glasses - AI glasses are expected to undergo significant changes in the second half of the year, with advancements in display technology likely to increase consumer adoption [9][10] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the electronic sector's current landscape and future opportunities.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **AI industry** and its implications for the **Apple supply chain** and related companies, particularly in the context of the ongoing AI innovation cycle in the United States and its impact on China [1][3][6][7]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **AI Innovation Cycle**: The U.S. is entering a new AI innovation cycle driven by large model innovations, which are expected to expand into applications and end-user devices within the next six months to a year [3][4]. 2. **U.S.-China AI Gap**: The AI gap between the U.S. and China is anticipated to widen, with the U.S. making rapid advancements due to large-scale delivery systems, while China's progress is expected to be more gradual [6][7]. 3. **Apple's AI Strategy**: Apple is shifting from developing its own AI models to utilizing third-party models due to challenges in recruiting top AI talent in Silicon Valley [5][11][14]. 4. **Apple Supply Chain Dynamics**: The Apple supply chain is benefiting from AI innovations, with companies like Luxshare Precision and others seeing stock price increases due to expectations of tariff relaxations [1][8]. 5. **Production Challenges**: Foxconn faces challenges in expanding iPhone production in India due to the return of Chinese employees, which has affected production efficiency [10]. 6. **Tariff Policies**: The U.S. has implemented complex tariff policies affecting imports from China and Vietnam, which could impact the Apple supply chain and related companies [9][12][13]. Additional Important Content 1. **Future Product Innovations**: Apple is expected to launch new products, including smart glasses and AR glasses, with low-power chips anticipated to be mass-produced by late 2026 or early 2027 [18][19]. 2. **Market Expectations**: The market is optimistic about Apple's AI innovations becoming clearer in the next six months to a year, with significant developments expected [11]. 3. **Stock Selection Strategies**: Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong growth potential and those launching new products, particularly in the context of the upcoming foldable devices [16]. 4. **Company Performance**: Industrial Fulian (富联) is projected to achieve a profit increase of approximately 40% year-on-year, driven by the shipment of its 200 series products [2][21]. 5. **Valuation Insights**: BYD Electronics is noted for its low valuation and potential growth from Apple's new product launches, particularly in the foldable device segment [22][23]. 6. **Emerging Opportunities**: Companies like Hongteng Precision and others are expected to benefit from AI-related innovations and the growing demand for optical and assembly components in the AR/VR space [24][25][26]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of the AI industry, Apple's strategic shifts, and the implications for its supply chain and related companies.