Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights potential delays in the production of NVIDIA's next-generation GPU chip, Rubin, due to redesign efforts to compete with AMD's upcoming MI450 [2][3] - Rubin was initially scheduled for mass production by the end of 2025 and sales to begin in early 2026, but the likelihood of delays is considered high by analysts [2] - The first version of Rubin completed tape out at the end of June, but NVIDIA is currently undergoing redesign, with the next tape out expected by the end of September or October [2] Group 2 - Nomad Semi analyst Moore Morris indicates that Rubin will replace NVIDIA's current Blackwell series, with projected shipments of 750,000 units in Q1 2025, increasing to 1.2 million in Q2, and further rising to 1.5 million and 1.6 million in Q3 and Q4 respectively [3] - Despite the anticipated growth of AMD and Broadcom in TSMC's CoWoS advanced packaging capacity, NVIDIA is expected to maintain a dominant market share of 51.4% in 2025, with AMD and Broadcom at 16.2% and 7.7% respectively [3] - By 2026, market share estimates suggest a slight decline for NVIDIA to 50.1%, while Broadcom and AMD's shares are projected to rise to 17.4% and 9.2% respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong demand for NVIDIA's H20 chips in the Chinese market, prompting the company to reconsider its production strategy and place urgent orders with TSMC to meet this demand [2][3]. Group 1: Market Demand and Strategy - NVIDIA had to change its strategy from relying solely on existing inventory to ordering 300,000 H20 chips from TSMC due to unexpectedly strong demand in China [2]. - Research firm SemiAnalysis reported that NVIDIA sold approximately 1 million H20 chips in 2024, indicating a significant market interest [2]. - The demand surge has led NVIDIA to contemplate restarting production, moving beyond just selling existing stock [2]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Despite the availability of alternative products from Huawei, NVIDIA remains popular in China, largely due to its CUDA ecosystem, which is difficult to replace [2]. - Chinese tech giants like Tencent, ByteDance, and Alibaba significantly increased their orders for H20 chips prior to the implementation of the export ban in April [2]. Group 3: Production and Financial Impact - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang stated that the volume of H20 orders will determine whether production will restart, noting that supply chain reactivation would take about nine months [3]. - Following the April export ban, NVIDIA warned of a $5.5 billion inventory write-down and reported a loss of $15 billion in potential sales [3].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock price has experienced significant volatility in 2023 due to macro policies, customer demand, and product cycle shifts, with a focus on its upcoming Q1 2026 financial report [2] Revenue Expectations - Nvidia is expected to achieve Q1 revenue of $43.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 66% [4] - The adjusted earnings per share for Q1 are projected to be $0.81, reflecting a 36% year-on-year increase, with a GAAP gross margin estimated at 70.6% [4][5] - The data center revenue for Q1 is anticipated to be around $39.2 billion, showing a 74% year-on-year growth [4][5] Financial Highlights - Analysts predict that Nvidia's data center segment will contribute approximately 90% of its revenue, with expectations of $38-40 billion in revenue for this segment, representing a year-on-year growth of 77% [5][6] - The expected revenue from the independent GPU segment is $13.38 billion, while the server systems segment is projected to generate $20.9 billion [5] Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Among 44 analysts, 36 have rated Nvidia as "Buy," 6 as "Hold," and 2 as "Sell," with an average target price of $167.53 per share, indicating a potential upside of about 23.6% from the closing price on May 27 [2][4] - Major investment banks have adjusted their target prices, with Morgan Stanley maintaining its target, UBS lowering it from $180 to $150, and Bank of America adjusting its target from $150 to $160 [4] Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - Nvidia's stock has rebounded approximately 40% since the beginning of the year, although it remains about 14% below its historical high reached in January [8] - The stock is expected to experience significant volatility following the earnings report, with predictions of a potential price movement of up to 7.4% [10] Demand Drivers - Major cloud providers, including Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta, contribute to about half of Nvidia's data center revenue, with substantial capital expenditures planned for AI infrastructure [7] - New clients like Tesla and Oracle are increasing demand for Nvidia's chips, supported by sovereign AI initiatives in regions like the Middle East [7] Future Outlook - Despite short-term pressures on revenue and profit growth, analysts believe Nvidia's mid-term growth prospects are improving, driven by the release of new products and easing supply chain constraints [7][8] - The upcoming Blackwell series is expected to significantly boost Nvidia's output, alleviating concerns about inventory surplus [6]