浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 医药行业 康龙化成（3759.HK/300759.CH）：新签 订单延续不错增速，维持全年收入指引 维持"买入"评级，上调港股目标价及 A 股目标价。 ●1H25 业绩大致符合此前盈利预告：公司 2Q25 实现收入人民币 33.42 亿 元（+13.9% YoY, +7.9% QoQ），接近此前盈利预告的对应的二季度中值， 符合我们在盈利预告之前的预期和 VA (Visible Alpha) 一致预期；Non- IFRS 经调整归母净利润为 4.06 亿元（+15.6% YoY, +16.3% QoQ）,同样接 近此前盈利预告对应的二季度中值，但略低于我们在盈利预告之前的预 期和 VA 一致预期，主要由于非经营性项目亏损略高于预期，包括财务 费用减值损失、外汇损失、减值损失均略高于预期。利润率方面，2Q25 毛利率为 33.7%，同比环比平稳；Non-IFRS 经调整净利率为 11.7%（+0.2 ppts YoY, +0.9 ppts QoQ）,同比环比轻微上升。 ●Top 20 药企二季收入增长强劲，下半年有望延续：1H25 来自于 Top 20 药企收入强劲增长 48% Yo ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight revenue beat in Q1 2025, with adjusted Non-IFRS net profit slightly below expectations, primarily due to higher-than-expected losses from non-operating items [1] Revenue Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached RMB 3.099 billion, representing a 16% year-over-year increase but a 10.4% quarter-over-quarter decline, slightly above expectations [1] - Laboratory services and clinical research services outperformed expectations, contributing to revenue growth [1][2] Segment Analysis - Laboratory services revenue grew by 15.7% YoY and 1.6% QoQ, with gross margin slightly improving by 1.4 percentage points YoY and 0.2 percentage points QoQ [2] - CMC services revenue increased by 19.1% YoY but decreased by 31.5% QoQ, with a gross margin improvement of 2.5 percentage points YoY [2] - Clinical research services revenue rose by 14.2% YoY and fell by 14% QoQ, with gross margin also improving by 2.5 percentage points YoY [2] - CGT revenue grew by 7.9% YoY and 2.2% QoQ, although gross margin declined significantly by 30.3 percentage points YoY due to increased operational and depreciation costs [2] Order Growth - Overall new orders in Q1 2025 achieved a growth rate of over 10% YoY, with CMC's backlog orders growing by over 20% YoY [3] - Management maintains a revenue guidance of 10%-15% growth for the full year 2025, despite a slowdown in new order growth compared to previous quarters [3] External Factors - The impact of tariffs on the company is limited, with minimal reliance on U.S. sourced materials, and the company is well-prepared with sufficient inventory [4] - The recovery of overseas biopharmaceutical financing remains slow, with only signs of moderate recovery in VC financing [4] Investment Rating - The company maintains a "Buy" rating, with target prices set at HKD 20 for Hong Kong shares and RMB 32 for A-shares, reflecting a premium of 80% for A-shares compared to Hong Kong shares [5]

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry - New Kai's impressive showcase at SEMICON China 2025 included over thirty semiconductor equipment products across four categories, indicating a significant advancement in domestic semiconductor equipment localization [4][10][12] - The exhibited equipment supports future advancements towards cutting-edge nodes, which may alleviate supply constraints in advanced process expansion in China [4][10][12] - Investment recommendations include companies such as Zhichun Technology, Xinlai Materials, Fuchuang Precision, Pioneer Precision, Chip Source Micro, and SMIC [4][12] Group 2: Fund Market Outlook - The fund market in April suggests a shift in asset allocation logic, with a recommendation to reduce equity asset positions due to increased market volatility and a downward trend in private sector financing growth [5][14] - The sentiment index for the A-share market indicates a mixed outlook, with only a few stocks reaching new highs, while overall market sentiment is declining [5][14] - The report recommends focusing on large-cap and growth styles, particularly those with high profitability quality, while suggesting stable fixed-income products [5][14] Group 3: Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong IPO market is experiencing a recovery, driven by favorable policies and a shift in companies seeking to list abroad, particularly in the tech sector [6][16][18] - The report highlights that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's listing conditions are more flexible compared to A-shares, attracting companies that do not meet A-share requirements [6][16][18] - The trend of companies listing in Hong Kong is expected to provide more quality targets for investment and enhance market liquidity [6][16][18] Group 4: Banking Sector - The banking sector is seeing a continued decline in revenue, with a projected net profit growth of 1.8% for listed banks in 2024, indicating a challenging environment [30][31] - Regulatory changes are being implemented to optimize securities issuance and underwriting management, aiming to attract long-term capital into the market [30][31] - Investment in the banking sector is recommended for its high dividend yield, despite ongoing pressures from interest rate declines and asset quality risks [30][31] Group 5: Food and Beverage Industry - The white liquor market remains stable, with expectations of positive growth for major brands in Q1 2025, driven by strong demand for high-end products [32][33] - The snack industry is highlighted as a high-growth area, with new product launches and channel expansions continuing to drive consumer interest [32][33] - The restaurant industry is anticipated to show signs of recovery, with recommendations for related sectors such as beer and frozen foods [32][33]

青侨阳光医药投资 - 交流探讨 港股医药过去几年经历了 20 年一遇的大跌，但这倒过来说，一旦企稳，这可能是 20 年一遇的机遇。虽然医药后 周期，但市场迟早会发现医药行业 " 总量稳健增长 + 创新持续爆发 " 蕴含的大量优质成长和潜在双击。 下面是 12 月 7 日在深圳雪球嘉年华和小丰总一起探讨的视频。 变局之下，医药行业的投资机会 视频来源于雪球 app 的 @ 雪球嘉年华。 以下为我们在这次交流过程中涉及到的对当下医药行业不同角度的探讨~ 1 最初选择聚焦医药时， 医药行业最吸引人的地方是什么？ 我们认为医药最吸引人的地方： 当然，这种结构性的搅动，看对了是机遇，看错了就是挑战了。所以， 医药 行业还是很好的，商业模式不 错，增长速度快，增量机会也多，但 对"看对方向、选对股票"的要求比较高 。 2 医药作为整体投资逻辑还是挺有吸引力的， 为什么过去几年医药股的股价还落后了这么多？ 我们的理解，至少也有3个原因： 对产业来说，前沿技术路线越多越好，说明创新活跃，机会很多。 但对投资者来说，方向太多根本跟踪不过来，而且也容易挑花眼。 不过只是后周期的话也不必太担心。至少行业基本面很健康，后面可能慢慢也 ...