当A股市场在美联储降息的迷雾中反复震荡，万亿市值的算力龙头工业富联正呈现出基本面与股价背离 的独特景观——一边是订单及算力需求持续拉升的硬核业绩支撑，一边是短期资金避险引发的震荡调 整。近期，工业富联股价在64-68元区间反复拉锯，这份波动究竟是风险信号还是布局良机？在降息"靴 子"落地的关键节点，这家全球AI算力基础设施的核心供应商，正值得投资者重新审视。 多重利好共振，算力需求进入爆发周期 当下的算力行业，正处于政策、技术、需求三重利好驱动的超级风口。政策端，全球主要经济体纷纷将 AI算力基础设施建设提升至战略高度，国内"东数西算"工程持续落地，企业级AI算力部署补贴政策频 出，为算力硬件需求提供了坚实保障。技术端，GPT-4o等大模型持续迭代，多模态应用加速渗透，推 动AI算力需求从训练端向推理端全面扩散，而边缘计算、智能驾驶等新场景的兴起，更让算力需求呈 现指数级增长态势。 需求端的爆发尤为直观：全球头部云服务商集体开启"算力军备竞赛"，微软为支撑Copilot生态持续扩建 智算中心，谷歌加码AI训练集群，国内字节、腾讯的智算中心项目也进入密集交付期。作为这些巨头 的核心供应商，工业富联正站在需求爆发 ...

大和证券发布报告指出，富士康（鸿海精密）有望通过提升AI服务器市场份额，巩固其在英伟达供应 链中的地位。分析师表示，在英伟达所有AI服务器制造商中，富士康的市场份额将逐步扩大，特别是 在第四季度GB300服务器开始大规模出货后。大和将富士康2025年及2026年NVL72服务器出货量预估分 别上调至1.24万台和2.21万台，这意味着该公司将占据英伟达AI服务器总产量的50%和48%。鉴于富士 康集成度持续提升且客户营运资金支出增加，该行对AI服务器营业利润率前景转向更加乐观。大和将 富士康目标价从235新台币上调至310新台币，该股今日收涨0.4%至252新台币。 ...

大和证券发布报告指出，富士康(鸿海精密)有望通过提升AI服务器市场份额，巩固其在英伟达供应链中 的地位。分析师表示，在英伟达所有AI服务器制造商中，富士康的市场份额将逐步扩大，特别是在第 四季度GB300服务器开始大规模出货后。大和将富士康2025年及2026年NVL72服务器出货量预估分别上 调至1.24万台和2.21万台，这意味着该公司将占据英伟达AI服务器总产量的50%和48%。鉴于富士康集 成度持续提升且客户营运资金支出增加，该行对AI服务器营业利润率前景转向更加乐观。大和将富士 康目标价从235新台币上调至310新台币，该股今日收涨0.4%至252新台币。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [10] Core Insights - Microsoft is leading the AI data center construction wave, with significant investments in building large-scale AI data centers, including a recent announcement of an additional $4 billion investment for a second AI data center in Wisconsin [5][8] - The Fairwater AI data center in Wisconsin, with an investment of $3.3 billion, is nearing completion and is designed to support large-scale AI models and applications [5][6] - The report highlights the increasing capital expenditures in the AI computing sector, with Microsoft's Q2 2025 capital expenditure reaching $24.2 billion, a 27% year-on-year increase, indicating a strong outlook for AI computing investments [7][8] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The computer industry has shown varied performance over different time frames, with a 1-month decline of 1.9%, a 3-month increase of 19.5%, and a 12-month increase of 75% [1] Investment Highlights - Microsoft has extensive experience in constructing large-scale data centers, which positions it favorably in the AI computing infrastructure sector [5][6] - Other leading companies in the overseas market are also increasing their capital expenditures for computing, indicating a clear mid-term visibility for global computing investments [7][8] Company Focus and Earnings Forecast - The report provides earnings forecasts for Microsoft, Google, and Nvidia, with Microsoft expected to have an EPS of $11.86 in 2024, increasing to $15.75 by 2026 [10]

Group 1: AI Hardware and Chip Demand - The report from Tianfeng Securities highlights optimism regarding AI hardware driving chip demand and opportunities for domestic substitution [1][3] - The semiconductor, domestic computing power, and self-controllable sectors are expected to be long-term trends [1][3] - In the context of ongoing uncertainties in US-China trade policies regarding AI computing power chips, domestic large model development companies and internet platforms are likely to gradually increase their procurement and usage of domestic chips [1][3] Group 2: Consumer Electronics and Market Trends - Apple is set to release new features and products, including the iPhone 17 series, AirPods, and Apple Watch, indicating a positive outlook for the Apple supply chain's innovation cycle and valuation recovery [2] - Meta has launched four AI glasses priced between $379 and $799, covering both everyday use and professional sports, creating a comprehensive product matrix [2] - The GPU and AISC markets are expected to expand, with the launch of GB300 servers and the ramp-up of GB200 driving a new growth phase for AI infrastructure [2] Group 3: Semiconductor Market Dynamics - AI SoC chip companies are benefiting from the increasing penetration of AI hardware, with significant growth reflected in the first half of 2025 [3] - Rising storage prices and the demand from AI servers, PCs, and mobile devices are driving rapid upgrades in storage capacity, with high-value products like HBM, eSSD, and RDIMM seeing increased penetration [3] - The domestic storage market is expected to accelerate growth further [3]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The report emphasizes that AI innovation is the core axis of the industry, with a focus on cyclical growth and domestic substitution [1][2] - The consumer electronics sector is expected to benefit from the recovery of the Apple supply chain and the demand for AI hardware [2][3] - The semiconductor industry is projected to see increased chip demand driven by AI hardware and opportunities for domestic substitution [2][3] Group 2: Consumer Electronics - Apple is expected to see a 10.5% year-on-year increase in iPhone sales in 2025, following a slight decline in 2024 [7][10] - The iPhone 17 series introduces significant innovations, including a new design and enhanced performance features [10][12] - Multiple Apple hardware products are anticipated to integrate AI capabilities, with potential new product launches in 2026 [12][15] Group 3: Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor market is expected to recover, with global sales projected to reach approximately $626.87 billion in 2024, reflecting a 19% year-on-year growth [41][45] - AI hardware is driving demand for AI SoC chips, with companies in this space experiencing high growth in the first half of 2025 [2][46] - The domestic semiconductor market is expected to grow significantly, with a focus on high-value products like HBM and eSSD [2][3] Group 4: AI and Computing Power - The global investment in AI infrastructure remains high, with major companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon increasing their capital expenditures [20][22] - The AI server market is projected to grow rapidly, with an expected increase of nearly 28% in shipments in 2025 [32][35] - The introduction of new AI chips, such as NVIDIA's Rubin CPX, signifies a shift towards specialized AI computing [29][32] Group 5: Market Trends and Innovations - The AI glasses market is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size of over 120 billion yuan by 2030 [18][19] - The report highlights the importance of SoC performance upgrades in the evolution of AI glasses from display devices to interactive terminals [50][51] - The semiconductor industry is witnessing a trend towards ASICs, with a projected CAGR of 45-50% in the coming years [51][52]

Core Viewpoint - The PCB industry is experiencing significant growth driven by increasing demand for HDI products, particularly due to advancements in AI server technology and substantial capital investments from major tech companies [3][7]. Market Trends - The HDI market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.4% from 2024 to 2029, reaching a global market size of $17.037 billion by 2029 [3]. - Major companies like Google are increasing their capital expenditures, with a reported $22.446 billion for Q2 2025, marking a 30.5% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 70.2% year-over-year increase [3]. Company Performance - Shengyi Technology (生益电子) reported a 91% year-over-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching 3.769 billion yuan, and a 452% increase in net profit to 531 million yuan [3]. Technological Developments - The PCB industry is evolving towards high-frequency, lightweight, and lead-free technologies, with CoWoP (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Panel) becoming a focal point for innovation [5][9]. - CoWoP technology requires Low-CTE (Coefficient of Thermal Expansion) materials to ensure compatibility with high-precision applications, leading to a focus on specialized materials and advanced manufacturing processes [9]. Key Drivers of Demand - The demand for PCBs is primarily driven by two segments: high-performance GPUs led by Nvidia and custom ASIC chips developed by cloud service providers like Google and Amazon [7][8]. - The shift towards custom ASICs is aimed at optimizing workloads and reducing reliance on external suppliers, which is expected to further increase PCB demand [8]. Advanced Packaging and Materials - CoWoP technology transforms PCBs from mere connectors to high-precision "inner substrates," necessitating advanced materials and manufacturing techniques [9]. - The introduction of HVLP (High-Voltage Low-Power) copper foil is essential for high-speed signal transmission, with surface roughness controlled to minimize signal loss [12][13]. Resin Innovations - The industry is moving away from traditional epoxy resins due to high dielectric loss, favoring advanced resin systems like PPO, PTFE, and CH, which offer better electrical performance [14].

Core Viewpoint - The company confirms its ability to meet customer demand for precision resistors used in NVIDIA's GB300 servers, indicating a flexible adaptation to client needs and maintaining high production capacity [1] Group 1 - The company’s resistors are configured based on customer requirements for NVIDIA servers, allowing for flexible adaptation [1] - The company maintains a high level of production capacity, ensuring stable fulfillment of customer demand [1] - Future production capacity will be gradually adjusted based on actual order situations to ensure supply chain stability and flexibility [1]

Summary of Industrial Fulian Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Industrial Fulian - **Industry**: AI Computing and Server Manufacturing Key Points and Arguments Revenue and Market Capitalization Projections - Industrial Fulian raised its revenue forecast for 2026 to 50 billion yuan, with a market capitalization potentially reaching 750 billion yuan in 2025 and 1 trillion yuan in 2026, driven by significant increases in GB200/GB300 server shipments [1][4] - The GB200 server shipments are expected to triple quarter-over-quarter in Q3, with an annual projection of over 25,000 units, contributing approximately 6.5-6.6 billion yuan in net profit for every 10,000 cabinets sold [1][5] Impact of NVIDIA GPU Shipments - NVIDIA's GPU shipments are crucial for Industrial Fulian, with expectations of 8 million GPUs shipped in 2026, primarily for NVL cabinets, leading to double-digit growth in cabinet shipments and improved net profit margins due to scale effects [1][6] - An additional order of 300,000 H20 chips from NVIDIA is anticipated to enhance Industrial Fulian's performance, as the company is a supplier for B200 and other special modules [1][9] Liquid Cooling Technology - The development of liquid cooling technology is expected to improve both gross and net profit margins, with a dedicated subsidiary focusing on this area [1][10] AI Server Business Growth - The AI server business is projected to have high growth potential in 2025, with general servers benefiting from AI applications, maintaining double-digit growth from 2025 to 2026 [1][10] ASIC Server Development - Industrial Fulian aims to introduce Tranium ASIC servers from Amazon and plans to incorporate Google ASIC servers by 2026, which will enhance its ASIC server product line share [2][11] Stargate Project - The Stargate project is progressing well, with the first station operational and a 4.5GW agreement signed with Oracle. The project is expected to involve a total investment of 500 billion USD over five years, with a peak CAPEX of 150 billion USD, providing substantial revenue opportunities for Industrial Fulian [3][12] Capital Expenditure Plans - The company plans to increase capital expenditures by over 20% in 2025, with 60-70% allocated for capacity expansion, reflecting confidence in demand [3][13] Long-term Benefits in AI Computing - Industrial Fulian is positioned for long-term benefits in the AI computing sector due to the increasing demand for computing power across various applications, including AI and AGI, with significant growth potential in GPU deployment [1][15][16] - The company has strong ties with core customers, directly supplying NVIDIA modules and potentially entering the ASIC supply chains of Google and Amazon, which enhances its competitive advantage [1][16] Additional Important Insights - The server market is evolving with a focus on optimizing network and storage capabilities, which is critical for enhancing overall computing power [1][15] - The competitive landscape is expected to intensify, with macroeconomic risks and potential underperformance in the AI industry being notable concerns [1][16]

Group 1 - Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang praised China's open-source AI as a catalyst for global progress, highlighting the advancement of hundreds of projects based on the NVIDIA Omniverse platform for digital twin modeling and virtual training in factories and warehouses [1][3] - The H20 chip's return to the Chinese market signals positive expectations, potentially alleviating local AI companies' concerns regarding computing power and promoting the large-scale deployment of agents and inference models [3][4] - The AI sector is experiencing a resonance between hardware upgrades on the computing side and model iterations on the application side, presenting investment opportunities in AI [2][4] Group 2 - TSMC reported a 60.7% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q2 2025, driven by strong demand for AI chip foundry services, with overall revenue growth in the wafer foundry industry expected to reach 17%-18% [2][5] - The GB300 chip is set to launch in September, with multiple manufacturers, including Dell, expected to begin shipping systems designed for inference tasks, significantly enhancing AI model training capabilities [5][6] - The PCB market is expected to see growth driven by the launch of GB300 and increased demand for high-end PCBs due to the expansion of ASIC server applications [6] Group 3 - The demand for display panels has slowed, with price adjustments observed in July, but leading companies like BOE and TCL Technology have shown resilience, with BOE becoming the top supplier in the foldable OLED screen market [7] - TCL Technology's semiconductor display business reported a net profit exceeding 4.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 70% year-on-year increase, while its solar business faced losses due to supply-demand imbalances [7] - The report suggests monitoring various companies in the consumer electronics sector, including those involved in components, materials, and automation equipment, indicating a broad interest in the industry [8]