固定收益 | 固定收益点评 避险情绪迅速升温 证券研究报告 海外经济跟踪周报 20251012 海外市场复盘（10.6-10.10） 海外权益，美股先涨后跌，周五大跌。本周一，芯片制造商 AMD 与 OpenAI 达成战略合作协议，AMD 大涨，标普 500 和纳指收涨，创下新高；周三， 英伟达 CEO 发声安抚 AI 泡沫担忧，标普 500、纳指再创历史新高。周五， 特朗普表示将从 11 月 1 日起，对中国征收 100%关税，并对所有关键软件 实施出口管制，受此消息影响，风险资产受重创，纳指收跌 3.6%，创下 4 月以来最大单日跌幅。 外汇方面，本周美元上涨。一方面，政府关门持续叠加关税风险上升，避 险情绪利好美元上行；另一方面，日本首相换选，候选人高市早苗主张宽 松货币政策，令日元大跌，推升美元。 利率方面，美债收益率下行。本周，政府关门令打击美国经济增长前景， 令降息预期升温，推动利率下行；周五的关税事件令市场避险情绪大幅升 温，美债大涨。 商品方面，本周黄金上涨、原油和铜大跌。政府关门和中美贸易冲突，令 市场避险需求大涨，黄金继续上行；风险资产原油和铜下跌。 海外央行动态 本周美联储官员言论立场不 ...

Market Overview - On October 6, 2025, the trading atmosphere on Wall Street was tense, with significant fluctuations in stock indices, reflecting uncertainty in the market [1] - The Dow Jones index experienced a sudden drop of 0.15%, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.21% and the Nasdaq climbed by 0.36%, indicating mixed market reactions [3] Company Performance - AMD saw a remarkable surge, with its stock price increasing by 27.72% to $210.315, resulting in a market capitalization increase of $100 billion [3][7] - Micron Technology and ARM also reported gains of 5.48% and 4.67%, respectively, while major players like TSMC and Lam Research experienced increases of 4.59% and 4.50% [3] - In contrast, companies like Western Digital and Seagate faced declines, with Western Digital down by 1.31% [6][7] Sector Trends - The semiconductor sector showed strong performance, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising by 4.3%, driven by major companies like TSMC and Broadcom [6] - The electric vehicle sector had notable movements, with NIO and XPeng showing slight increases, while Niu Technologies surged by 13.5% [4][6] Investment Sentiment - The market exhibited signs of anxiety and excitement, with significant trading volumes and discussions about potential market shifts [9][10] - The announcement of a partnership between OpenAI and AMD to deploy 6GW of GPU computing power is expected to significantly boost AMD's AI business revenue, projected to exceed $100 billion [7][10] Gold Market - Gold prices reached $3950 per ounce, marking a $60 increase and a 1.64% rise, attributed to heightened risk aversion among investors [9]

人工智能正在进入"经验时代"；文明的下一跃，需要AI"大脑"与核聚变"心脏"；基础设施加速扩张，AI 正步入"产业规模化"……9月11日上午，以"重塑创新增长"为主题的2025 Inclusion·外滩大会在上海黄浦 世博园区开幕。来自16个国家和地区的550位嘉宾参会分享，全球顶尖学者、产业界人士、青年创业者 和科学家，共同探索智能时代的创新路径与商业未来。 孙玄在演讲中援引数据称："AI目前用电量占地球的1.5%，如果我们把AI比喻成'地球大脑'的话，人的 大脑能耗占人体的20%，因此有人预测，AI的耗电量也将占地球总数的20%以上。"这意味着，仅人工 智能一个领域，就将产生巨大的能源缺口。 基础设施加速扩张，AI 正步入"产业规模化" 在外滩大会开幕主论坛上，源码资本投资合伙人、美国国家工程院外籍院士张宏江表示，大模型的"规 模定律（Scaling Law）"仍然有效，而智能体与经济结构转型将深刻重塑社会。 张宏江指出，人类正在进入"智能体群（agent swarm）"时代，也就是数量庞大的智能体之间彼此交互、 执行任务、交换数据、交换信息，甚至交换任务，而人类与这些智能体群的交互，将构成所谓的"智能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, UCloud (688158.SH), is actively involved in the brain-computer interface (BCI) sector by leveraging its cloud computing resources and expertise to support related businesses [2]. Group 1: Company Capabilities - UCloud has extensive experience in cloud computing, which is essential for the development of BCI technologies [2]. - The company has established a partnership with BrainTiger Technology to provide GPU computing power, storage, and technical support [2]. - UCloud's high-performance and elastic computing resources enable real-time decoding and analysis of large multimodal signals generated from experiments, aiding in model training and algorithm optimization [2]. Group 2: Future Prospects - The company aims to continue leveraging its strengths to support advancements in China's brain-computer interface field [2].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the developments in the AI and cloud computing industry, particularly focusing on UCloud's strategies and market positioning in response to evolving technologies and customer demands [2][4][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **AI Technology and Market Opportunities** - Advances in AI technology and the trend towards open-source solutions have lowered the profitability threshold for AI projects, enabling small startups to commercialize quickly through products like Meitu and vertical industry applications [2][4]. - Localized deployment needs present opportunities for Chinese companies, as concerns over data leakage drive demand for domestic solutions [4]. 2. **Surge in Cloud Computing Demand** - Cloud computing demand is surging, particularly in three areas: data centers, GPU computing power, and overseas markets [2][5]. - The Ulanqab data center has seen all units pre-sold before official sales, indicating strong demand [5]. - There is a significant shortage of GPUs across various series (H, A, 4090), driven by increased demand in industry models, AI applications, and robotics [6]. 3. **Strategic Partnerships and Client Services** - The company is considering providing server equipment procurement and holding services for large clients, who are seen as low-risk with strong payment capabilities [7]. - Collaborations with banks and financial institutions are being explored to support this initiative [7]. 4. **International Expansion and Sovereign AI Strategy** - UCloud is deploying GPU clusters overseas to support the rapid growth of Chinese AI companies in North America, with a focus on establishing a sovereign AI strategy [8][9]. - The company aims to help local firms become NCPs (National Cloud Providers) by leveraging its software capabilities [9]. 5. **Future Development Directions** - Key future directions include expanding data center sales, increasing high-end GPU supply, enhancing overseas market presence, supporting sovereign AI initiatives, and investing in server equipment services [10]. 6. **Impact of Open Source AI on Enterprises** - The open-source trend in AI has significantly improved the technical capabilities of medium to large enterprises, leading them to prefer collaborations with independent third parties [11]. - The company is shifting its perspective on investing in large-scale entrepreneurial ecosystems, planning to increase investments if initial projects succeed [11]. 7. **Financial Strategies and Funding** - The company is raising funds through bank loans, financial leasing, and capital market operations, currently holding approximately 700 million yuan in cash reserves [3][14]. - Adjustments to capital depreciation periods are being considered to optimize financial statements [16]. 8. **Client Risk Management** - The company adopts a conservative approach to client risk management, preferring to partner with traditional enterprises that present lower risks [16]. - Focus areas include technology model companies, industry model companies, robotics applications, and AI applications [17]. 9. **Overseas Market Performance** - The company has successfully established a GPU cluster in North America, marking a significant milestone for Chinese cloud computing firms [18]. - Revenue from overseas operations is primarily generated through AI applications, which have high payment rates in the European and American markets [19]. 10. **Long-term Investment Insights** - The actions of Zhongyin Capital, which entered the company at a valuation of 10 billion yuan, reflect the uncertainties of long-term investments but also indicate investor confidence [20]. Additional Important Insights - The company views the rapid development of AI as a potential major technological shift, with both opportunities and challenges ahead [24]. - There is a growing need for funding to support business expansion, with expectations of progress in order fulfillment in the near future [25].

1、军信股份：拟以2亿元-3亿元回购股份，回购股份的价格不超过人民币30.57元/股。 2、中国交建：拟以5亿元-10亿元回购股份；控股股东拟增持2.5亿元-5亿元。 一、回购、增持、股权转让 4、安培龙：本次询价转让初步确定转让价格为70.89元/股。 3、中交设计：控股股东全资子公司拟增持1.5亿元-3亿元。 2、亚联机械：一季度净利润5760.44万元，同比增长1088.67%；本季度验收项目较多，且确认上市相关 政府补助，导致利润增长较高。 3、大金重工：2025年一季度净利润2.31亿元，同比增长335.91%；本期海外海工项目交付量大幅提升。 5、德业股份：拟以1亿元-2亿元回购股份，回购股份价格不超过人民币130元/股。 二、对外投资、日常经营 1、平治信息：中标2.46亿元GPU算力建设项目 2、中贝通信：与北京万界数据科技有限责任公司签订《算力服务合同》，本次合同金额为4.4亿元，服 务期限为4年。 3、丰立智能：与英搏尔签署战略合作协议，共同致力于在新能源汽车、关节模组、工程机械、 eVTOL、智能制造等领域相互赋能。 4、洲明科技：拟投资6亿元建设Micro及Mini LED显示和照明生 ...