新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 总第 4988 期 2026 年 3 月 26 日 星期四 研究观点 【公司评论】 特斯拉（TSLA）：周报 第一上海证券有限公司 香港中环德辅道中 71 号永安集团大厦 19 楼 咨询热线：400-882-1055 服务邮箱：Service@firstshanghai.com 网址：www.mystockhk.com 第一上海证券有限公司 www.mystockhk.com 第一上海 新力量 New Force 【公司评论】 李京霖 852-25321957 特斯拉（TSLA）：周报 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk Robotaxi：Robotaxi 疑似将进军新城市 Alice.tang@firstshanghai.com.hk 3 月 17 日，在拉斯维加斯北部的亨德森镇，有人发现了配备"后置摄像头清洗装 置"（Robotaxi 专用硬件）的 Model Y 车队。此前特斯拉就公开表示，拉斯维加 斯是其 Robotaxi 车队的五座目标城市之一，其他城市分别是菲尼克斯、达拉斯 ...

For years, the trade was simple. Own big tech. Is it still that easy.Gene Monster is managing partner of Deepwater Asset Management and joins us now. Jean, thanks so much for being here. >> Wonderful to be here.>> So, Jean, what do you think. Big tech is lagging this year. Does the market have it wrong.>> I think the market uh has it wrong in the sense that you should still own some of the big tech. This idea of just owning kind of a basket, not giving it much consideration, I think is going to perform uh l ...

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk has sparked speculation that a new model could be on the horizon for the EV giant following a cryptic social media post on Tuesday.Way Cooler Than A MinivanUser Leah Libresco Sargeant took to the social media platform X, asking Musk to make a Tesla minivan after the billionaire said that the Cybertruck’s rear seat has three ISOFIX mounts, which would help it fit three child seats and enhance child occupant safety.Musk, in response to the user, shared that something “wa ...

大摩闭门会：参访特斯拉超级工厂，探讨 Robotaxi 赛博 出租车、Optimus 人形机器人、能源储能、Terafab 及 分部加总估值法 20260324 摘要 Robotaxi 2026 年年中前新增 7 城运营，重点优化奥斯汀及上下车数据； 预计 2026 年车队新增 1,000 辆（主为 Model Y），2030 年达 3 万辆， 2035 年目标 100 万辆。 FSD 无监督技术是估值核心，Robotaxi 与 FSD 网络服务合计贡献目标 价（415 美元）的 85%；未来几个月将推含更多推理功能的新版本，纯 视觉方案规模化仍是关键。 第三代 Optimus 或推迟至 2026Q2 发布，同年下半年在弗里蒙特量产 （将停产 Model S/X）；2027 年预期销量 5,000 台，初期单价 20-25 万美元，主供工业应用。 能源业务毛利>30%成现金流支柱，98%来自 Megapack；受竞争与关 税影响，预计 2026/27 年利润率分别压缩 300/200 个基点，长期稳定 在 20%左右。 Q&A 德州超级工厂考察后，关于自动驾驶出租车业务有哪些新的进展和见解，特别 是其与全自动 ...

Not long ago, I named Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) my top growth stock to buy in 2026. My thesis was two-fold. First, Rivian is about to begin deliveries of its R2 SUV. As I'll highlight below, this should prove a historic milestone for the company's growth journey. Second, Rivian's AI exposure is undervalued. After the recent market correction, growth and value investors alike should consider Rivian shares. Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known c ...

RT André Thierig (@AndrThie)Happy Birthday Giga Berlin!4 years ago, we started production with delivering the first 30 cars to our customers! Since then, it has been a unique success story:- produced and delivered more than 700.000 Model Y 💪🏼- created nearly 11.000 jobs 👷‍♂️👩‍🔧So much more to come! https://t.co/4ld9pvAupR ...

As of last quarter, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) controls more than half of the U.S. electric vehicle (EV) market. This is not unusual for the company. For years, Tesla has dominated the EV category in the U.S. What is unusual, however, is the competitive landscape moving forward. In some ways, Tesla will face more competition this year than ever before. But in other ways, the competitive landscape has improved considerably. There are two important factors to understand about Tesla's unusual competitive position ...

Core Insights - Tesla has maintained a U.S. market share of over 50% due to limited competition in the electric vehicle (EV) market over the past decade [1] - An emerging competitor, Rivian, is expected to challenge Tesla's dominance with the launch of its R2 SUV in 2026, potentially impacting Tesla's market position by 2029 [2] Revenue Streams - Approximately 25% of Tesla's revenue comes from energy storage and generation, while around 75% is derived from automotive sales, including various models like Model S, Model X, Cybertruck, Model 3, and Model Y [3] - The "services and other" revenue category is primarily linked to automotive activities, accounting for used car sales, supercharging fees, repairs, and insurance, leading to about 86% of total revenue being tied to vehicle sales [4] Vehicle Deliveries - In the last quarter, Tesla delivered 418,227 vehicles, with over 400,000 deliveries attributed to the Model 3 and Model Y, indicating that Model Y sales significantly contribute to overall revenue [5] Competitive Landscape - Rivian's R2 SUV, priced competitively between $45,000 and $57,990, is positioned as a direct competitor to Tesla's Model Y, which starts at $41,630 and can go up to $61,630 [8] - The R2 SUV is expected to capitalize on the popularity of SUVs, which account for over 50% of global vehicle sales, while Tesla's only SUV, the Model X, is set to be discontinued [8] Sales Projections - Tesla's Model Y sales peaked at 385,897 units in 2023, but estimates suggest a decline to approximately 250,000 units by 2025, while Rivian's R2 could potentially exceed Model Y sales by 2029 if it follows a similar sales ramp-up trajectory [9]

Core Insights - Tesla has dominated the U.S. EV market, holding over 50% market share, primarily due to the popularity of the Model Y, which represents more than 70% of its vehicle sales [1][2] - Rivian's R2 SUV, launching next month, is expected to challenge Tesla's Model Y, raising questions about the competitive landscape for both companies [2][6] Market Position - Tesla's market cap exceeds $1 trillion, while most other EV companies, including Rivian, are valued below $20 billion [1] - Rivian's current market cap is approximately $19 billion, with a significant drop in stock price recently [3] Sales Performance - The Model Y was the top-selling EV in 2025, with 317,800 units sold, while the Model S was the only sedan in the top 10 best-selling EVs [3] - The majority of the top-selling EVs are SUVs, indicating a strong consumer preference for this vehicle type [3] Competitive Landscape - Tesla's Model X, a luxury SUV, has a starting price of $90,000, which limits its market appeal, and production may be discontinued [4][5] - Rivian's R2 SUV is anticipated to be a feature-rich, long-range vehicle priced under $50,000, potentially attracting a broader customer base [5] Future Outlook - Tesla's valuation is increasingly based on its potential in AI and autonomous driving rather than solely on its auto manufacturing business [7][8] - The robotaxi market, which Tesla aims to enter, could be valued between $5 trillion and $10 trillion, suggesting significant growth opportunities beyond current auto sales [8] - Both Tesla and Rivian have opportunities for success, with Rivian likely to gain market share while Tesla targets larger markets [9]

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