国庆中秋假期（下文简称"双节"），车市热度延续。10月8日晚间，鸿蒙智行公布假期大定数据，9月30 日至10月7日累计大定突破4.85万辆。 这一销售高峰与9月以来的"新车潮"密切相关。据21世纪经济报道记者不完全统计，仅9月22日至28日， 国内车市就有18款新车上市或亮相，包括理想i6、问界M7、尚界H5等多款车型。多款新车的集中发布 直接带动了门店客流与订单量的攀升。一位鸿蒙智行销售人员透露，以新款智界R7为例，假期期间订 车仍需等待4至6周才能交付。 具体来看，理想汽车推出智能焕新版L系列限时置换补贴1.5万元，并提供1.99%的低息金融方案；小鹏 汽车则在假期推出"5年0利息0首付"限时福利，最高贴息55700元，老车主还可享受充电免服务费权益。 广汽丰田部分车型在"双节"限时促销中最高优惠可达5.1万元，但扣除日常已有的3万元左右优惠后，实 际额外优惠空间有限。若不涉及置换等额外补贴，消费者实际能享受到的额外优惠可能在3000元左右。 部分品牌车型则在线上电商平台推出"双节"限时优惠，以期吸引更多客户。 行业层面，"金九"成色初步显现。乘联会数据显示，9月1日至27日，乘用车市场零售销量达177. ...

Group 1 - The CEO of Xpeng Motors, He Xiaopeng, announced significant progress at the 28th Chengdu International Auto Show, highlighting strong market performance for the Mona M03 with cumulative deliveries exceeding 160,000 units and over 10,000 units delivered monthly for 11 consecutive months [1] - The newly launched P7 model has received an overwhelming market response, with over 10,000 pre-orders within 7 minutes of its release, indicating a clear consumer preference for the entry-level version and the "New Moon Silver" color option [1] - Xpeng Motors reported a record monthly delivery of 36,717 vehicles in July, representing a 229% year-on-year increase, and cumulative deliveries from January to July reached 233,906 units, up 270% year-on-year, surpassing the total delivery target for 2024 [4] Group 2 - The new P7 model is equipped with three self-developed Turing AI chips, providing a total computing power of 2,250 TOPS, which is 3 to 28 times more than other models, supporting advanced urban intelligent driving features and preparing for future L3 and L4 capabilities [3] - The company anticipates improved sales performance in August following the delivery launch of the new P7 model and expects to achieve its first quarterly profit in Q4 of this year [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaopeng Motors (09868) [1] Core Views - Xiaopeng Motors reported Q2 2025 revenue of 18.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.3%, with a Q2 gross margin of 17.3%, up 3.3 percentage points from the same period in 2024 [4][6] - The company’s gross margin reached a historical high, driven by the launch of high-priced models G6 and G9, while the sales proportion of the lower-priced Mona M03 decreased from 50% in Q1 2025 to 38% in Q2 2025 [6] - The Q3 delivery guidance is conservative, with expected deliveries between 113,000 and 118,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 142.8% to 153.6% [6] - The potential of Xiaopeng's extended-range vehicles is still to be fully realized, with the upcoming X9 model expected to alleviate range anxiety and enhance gross margins [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of the new P7 pricing and the performance of extended-range vehicles in shaping the company's growth trajectory [6] Financial Summary - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 76.99 billion, 116.42 billion, and 142.15 billion yuan, respectively, with significant growth rates of 88.4%, 51.2%, and 22.1% [8] - The net profit forecast shows a turnaround from a loss of 1.61 billion yuan in 2025 to a profit of 3.95 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a growth rate of 222% [8] - The report anticipates a price-to-sales ratio of 1.6 for 2026, suggesting a market capitalization of approximately 200.4 billion HKD and a target share price of 106 HKD [6][8]

Core Insights - Xiaopeng Motors is approaching self-sufficiency, with Q2 revenue reaching 18.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.3%, and a net loss narrowing to 480 million yuan [1][2] - The company aims to achieve profitability in Q4 2023, focusing on high-end models priced above 300,000 yuan and leveraging technology and brand value for premium pricing [2][3] Financial Performance - For the first half of the year, Xiaopeng's revenue was 34.09 billion yuan, up 132.5% year-on-year, with adjusted net loss of 810 million yuan, significantly reduced from 2.63 billion yuan in the same period last year [2] - Q2 gross profit reached 3.17 billion yuan, a 28.8% increase, with a gross margin of 17.3%, surpassing Tesla's 17.2% for the same period [2][5] - The improvement in gross margin is attributed to a shift in product sales structure and increased technical revenue from partnerships, particularly with Volkswagen [5][8] Cost Management and R&D - R&D expenses rose to 2.21 billion yuan in Q2, a 50.4% increase, while sales and administrative expenses increased by 37.7% to 2.17 billion yuan, indicating a focus on growth despite rising costs [3][9] - The company holds a cash reserve of 47.57 billion yuan, providing a buffer for ongoing investments [4] Market Strategy and Product Development - Xiaopeng plans to launch new models, including the P7 and G7 in August and the X9 in Q4, targeting the mainstream market with a focus on extended-range vehicles [10][11] - The company is enhancing its design capabilities and aims to release multiple new models priced above 300,000 yuan in 2026 and 2027 [11] Technological Advancements - Xiaopeng is investing heavily in AI technology, with plans to deploy self-developed AI chips in future models, aiming for significant advancements in autonomous driving capabilities by 2025 [12][13] - The company is also exploring the commercialization of Robotaxi services, with initial tests planned for 2026 [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The strategic cooperation agreement between XPeng Motors and Volkswagen Group aims to expand their collaboration from pure electric vehicles to include fuel and plug-in hybrid models, enhancing both companies' market positions and technological capabilities [1][3]. Group 1: Previous Collaborations - Prior to the new agreement, XPeng and Volkswagen had collaborated four times, including a $700 million investment from Volkswagen for a 4.99% stake in XPeng and joint development of two B-class electric vehicle models [2]. - In February 2024, they signed a platform and software strategic technology cooperation agreement to accelerate the development of B-class electric vehicles and initiated a joint procurement plan [2]. - The electronic and electrical architecture technology cooperation agreement was signed in April 2024, focusing on the development of the China Electronic Architecture (CEA) [2]. - In July 2024, the cooperation was expanded to include Volkswagen's CMP and MEB platforms, enhancing XPeng's supply chain capabilities and market valuation [2]. Group 2: Implications of the New Agreement - The new agreement solidifies Volkswagen's position in the traditional fuel vehicle market while accelerating its transition to electric vehicles, leveraging XPeng's CEA architecture across its extensive product range [3]. - For XPeng, this agreement allows for participation in the global supply chain and potential brand promotion through Volkswagen's overseas sales network [3]. Group 3: Financial Projections and Performance - The agreement is expected to directly support XPeng's goal of achieving profitability by Q4 2025, with technical service revenue reaching 1.44 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 43.6% year-on-year increase [4]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the technical service revenue share for XPeng will rise from 9.1% in Q4 2024 to 15% in Q4 2025, contributing to an overall gross margin exceeding 17% [4]. - XPeng has launched several successful models, with the G6 and G9 seeing sales growth after price adjustments, and the Mona M03 maintaining strong sales performance [4]. - The company has achieved 66.8% of its annual sales target of 350,000 units, leading among new car manufacturers [5].

Core Insights - Xpeng is maintaining strong sales momentum with 34,611 car deliveries in June, marking its eighth consecutive month of over 30,000 deliveries, despite intense competition from BYD and others in the Chinese electric vehicle market [1][2] Industry Overview - The electric vehicle price war in China has intensified, leading to government criticism of excessive competition, with President Xi Jinping calling for better governance of low-price competition [3] - BYD remains the dominant player in the market, with June sales reaching 377,628 vehicles, contributing to a total of 2.1 million vehicles sold in the first half of the year [13] Competitor Performance - Xpeng's competitors have shown mixed results: - Zeekr reported 16,702 deliveries in June, down 11.7% month-over-month and 16.9% year-over-year [4] - Nio delivered 24,925 cars in June, showing slight growth due to its premium and lower-priced brands [4] - Li Auto delivered 36,279 vehicles in June, a decline of 11.2% from May, but exceeded its second-quarter guidance with 111,074 total deliveries [5] - Xiaomi reported over 25,000 electric car deliveries in June, with significant demand for its new YU7 SUV, which is priced lower than Tesla's Model Y [8][9] Market Dynamics - Tesla's sales in China are estimated at approximately 128,000 units for Q2, down 12% year-over-year, facing pressure from new model launches by Chinese brands [10] - Tesla's market share in China's new energy vehicle segment has slightly declined, with retail sales just over 200,000 vehicles in the first five months of the year [11] - Leapmotor and Aito reported strong growth with record deliveries of 48,006 and 44,685 cars respectively in June [12] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that BYD, Xiaomi, and Geely are likely to survive potential industry consolidation, while Nio may face risks due to financial challenges despite having a strong product lineup [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the importance of technological iteration and sales growth for new energy vehicle companies, with channel capability being a key factor for sales growth and management ability being crucial for integrating technology, channels, and products [1] - The report highlights the reasons for the sales increase of XPeng Motors, noting a strong new vehicle cycle in 2025 and the optimization of store structure and single-store efficiency as core elements supporting sales [1] Group 2 - XPeng Motors is rapidly expanding its store network, with the number of stores expected to increase from approximately 300 in Q3 2023 to over 500 by Q4 2024, focusing on low-tier cities while enhancing capabilities in core cities [1] - The store efficiency is projected to improve steadily, with single-store efficiency showing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 10.5% in Q1 2025, driven by new vehicle cycles and sales capability upgrades [2] - In Q1 2025, XPeng's store efficiency across different city tiers is expected to show significant growth, with first-tier and new first-tier cities achieving increases of 73% and 105% respectively compared to 2024 [2] Group 3 - The investment outlook for XPeng Motors is positive, with projected sales of 524,000, 786,000, and 966,000 vehicles for 2025 to 2027, respectively, and corresponding total revenues of 97.76 billion, 158.1 billion, and 197.07 billion yuan [2] - The expected net profit for XPeng Motors is forecasted to be 1.2 billion, 6 billion, and 9.42 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs upgraded Xpeng Motors (XPEV.US, 09868) to a buy rating with a 12-month target price of $24/94 HKD, indicating an implied upside potential of 29%/27%. The firm sees the results of various efforts, including organizational and supply chain restructuring, cost reduction through technology, and platformization, enhancing the company's product and cost structure competitiveness, leading to greater visibility for sustainable sales growth and margin improvement [1] Group 1 - Enhanced Model Competitiveness: Xpeng Motors has shown continuous improvement in its new and updated models over the past two quarters, with the Mona M03 and P7+ ranking in the top three in their respective segments. This ongoing improvement boosts confidence in Xpeng's sales, not only for existing models but also for strong new models and updates expected to launch in the remainder of 2025, including G7/P7 (Q3) and its first extended-range electric vehicle (EREV) (Q4) [2] - Accelerated New Model Launches: Xpeng Motors has increased the frequency of new model releases, planning to launch 10 new models and updates annually, compared to just 1-2 models per year from 2019 to 2023. This strategy aims to enhance brand visibility throughout the year and provide opportunities for old model sales, thereby extending the sales growth cycle for all models [3] - Cost Reduction Effects: In early 2023, Xpeng Motors implemented a cost reduction plan aimed at lowering the overall bill of materials (BOM) costs by 25%, including a 50% reduction in advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) BOM costs. The P7+ (launching in Q4 2024) will be the first model to realize total cost reductions, followed by the 2025 versions of G6 and G9 (launching in March). For instance, the cost reduction for the G6 is projected to improve gross margin by 7 percentage points and enhance gross profit by 156%. All new models will benefit from BOM cost reductions, laying the foundation for further improvements in gross margin and overall profitability [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive and automotive parts industry [5][25]. Core Insights - The automotive market remained stable in May, with new energy vehicle manufacturers showing promising delivery growth, particularly Li Auto, which saw a year-on-year increase of 16.7% and a month-on-month increase of 20.4% to 40,856 units delivered [1] - Xpeng Motors experienced a significant year-on-year increase of 230.4% in deliveries, although it saw a month-on-month decline of 4.3% to 33,525 units [1] - NIO's deliveries increased by 13.1% year-on-year but decreased by 2.8% month-on-month to 23,231 units [1] - New models launched in May emphasize enhanced intelligence features, with Xpeng's Mona M03 and Li Auto's L series receiving notable upgrades [1][2] Summary by Sections Delivery Performance - Li Auto delivered 40,856 units in May, up 16.7% year-on-year and 20.4% month-on-month [1] - Xpeng delivered 33,525 units, marking a 230.4% year-on-year increase but a 4.3% month-on-month decrease [1] - NIO's deliveries totaled 23,231 units, reflecting a 13.1% year-on-year increase and a 2.8% month-on-month decrease [1] New Model Launches - Xpeng launched four new models of the Mona M03, with the Max version priced below 150,000 CNY, achieving over 10,000 pre-orders within an hour [1] - Li Auto's L series received an upgrade with new intelligent features while maintaining the same pricing [1] Market Dynamics - The report notes a potential for slight expansion in purchasing incentives for June, with Tesla and new energy vehicle manufacturers offering various financing options [2] - A short-term price war initiated by BYD is expected to impact market sentiment, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to the anticipated increase in domestic sales driven by trade-in programs [2] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares of Xpeng Motors and suggests paying attention to Tesla and Li Auto [3] - For automotive parts, it recommends buying shares of Fuyao Glass and suggests monitoring companies like Pony.ai, Nexperia, and Jifeng [3]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors reported a significant increase in revenue and a reduction in net loss for Q1 2025, indicating a positive trend in its financial performance and operational efficiency [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Xiaopeng Motors achieved revenue of 15.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141.5% [1]. - The net profit for Q1 2025 was -660 million yuan, showing a reduction in loss by 710 million yuan compared to the previous quarter [2]. - The gross margin improved to 15.6%, with the automotive sales gross margin at 10.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.0 percentage points [2]. Vehicle Delivery and Sales - Xiaopeng Motors delivered 94,000 vehicles in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 330.8% [2]. - The automotive business revenue reached 14.37 billion yuan, up 159.2% year-on-year, with an average selling price (ASP) of 153,000 yuan per vehicle [2]. - The company anticipates delivering between 102,000 and 108,000 vehicles in Q2 2025, projecting total revenue of 17.5 billion to 18.7 billion yuan [2]. Product Development and Market Expansion - Xiaopeng Motors plans to launch several new models, including the G6, G9 facelift, and the all-new X9, which are expected to drive sales growth [2]. - The company is expanding its sales network, with a total of 690 stores covering 223 cities and 2,115 self-operated charging stations [3]. - The upcoming Mona M03 Max will introduce advanced driving features at a lower price point, targeting a broader market [3]. Future Projections - The company forecasts vehicle sales of 524,000, 786,000, and 966,000 units for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding revenues of 97.76 billion, 158.1 billion, and 197.07 billion yuan [3]. - The expected growth rates for revenue are 139.2%, 61.7%, and 24.6% for the years 2025 to 2027 [3].