Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors reported strong revenue growth in Q3 2025, with total revenue increasing by 101.8% year-on-year and 11.5% quarter-on-quarter to 20.38 billion yuan, indicating robust business performance despite challenges in automotive gross margins [4][5]. Group 1: Q3 2025 Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 reached 20.38 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 101.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.5% [4]. - Gross margin improved by 4.8 percentage points year-on-year and 2.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 20.1% [4]. - Non-GAAP net loss narrowed significantly by 90.1% year-on-year and 60.6% quarter-on-quarter to 150 million yuan [4]. Group 2: Automotive Business Insights - Automotive revenue for Q3 2025 was 18.05 billion yuan, up 105.3% year-on-year and 6.9% quarter-on-quarter, with a delivery volume of 116,000 units, representing a 149.3% year-on-year increase [5]. - The average selling price (ASP) decreased by 17.7% year-on-year and 4.9% quarter-on-quarter to 156,000 yuan [5]. - Automotive gross margin decreased by 1.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 13.1%, attributed to a higher sales proportion of the Mona M03 model and inventory clearance of older models [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategic Initiatives - For 2026, the company plans to launch seven "dual-energy" models, including four new models, and ramp up production at overseas factories [6]. - Collaboration with Volkswagen on G9 platform models is expected to begin mass production in 2026, enhancing revenue potential [6]. - The company aims to introduce three Robotaxi models and a new generation of humanoid robots by the end of 2026, leveraging AI technology [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from a strong product cycle, overseas expansion, advancements in autonomous driving, and emerging business opportunities in robotics and Robotaxi [7]. - The company delivered 116,007 vehicles in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 149%, leading to a revenue growth of 102% to 20.38 billion yuan [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 20.1%, with a notable improvement in profitability as the net loss narrowed significantly [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q3, the company achieved a revenue of 20.38 billion yuan, with automotive sales revenue of 18.1 billion yuan and service revenue of 2.3 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 105% and 78% respectively [1]. - The company’s Q3 net loss was 380 million yuan, a significant reduction compared to previous periods, with a Non-GAAP net loss of 150 million yuan, narrowing by 90% year-on-year [1]. - The projected total revenue for Q4 is expected to be between 21.5 billion and 23 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.5% to 42.8% [2]. Product and Market Outlook - The company plans to launch the X9 super range extender model on November 20, with additional models set to be released in early 2026 [3]. - The overseas market is showing strong growth, with Q1-Q3 overseas deliveries reaching 29,706 units, a 79% increase year-on-year [4]. - The company is enhancing its autonomous driving capabilities with the introduction of the VLA 2.0 model, which significantly improves performance in complex driving scenarios [5]. Future Projections - The company forecasts total vehicle sales of approximately 440,000, 700,000, and 910,000 units for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with total revenues projected to reach 773 billion yuan by 2025 [7][8]. - The gross margin is expected to remain around 20% for Q4, with a long-term target of achieving a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 5.1% by 2027 [2][8].

18 November 2025 | 7:03AM CST Equity Research XPeng Inc. (XPEV): 3Q25 First Take: Operating profit in line, 4Q25E revenue guidance below expectation XPeng reported 3Q25 result with total revenue and operating profit in line with expectation, with higher revenue and gross margin from services and others mitigating the impact from lower vehicle sales and margin. However, 4Q25E revenue guidance was below expectation, with revenue of Rmb21.5bn-23.0bn (-17%/-16% vs.GSe/Consensus at the midpoint) and vehicle sale ...

(Reuters) -Chinese electric vehicle maker XPeng (XPEV) forecast fourth-quarter revenue below estimates on Monday, as a prolonged price war and ​intensifying competition in the world's largest auto market threaten to slow its ‌growth. The company's U.S.-listed shares, which have more than doubled this year, fell nearly ‌4% in premarket trading. The cautious outlook comes despite XPeng and rival NIO (NIO) posting record deliveries in October, even as Tesla's (TSLA) China sales slumped to a three-year low. ...

Company Overview - XPENG is a leading Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer founded in 2014, focusing on "smart EVs" for tech-savvy, middle-class customers [1] - The company is vertically integrated, manufacturing its powertrains, electronics, and vehicle software in-house, allowing for competitive pricing [1] - The "Mona M03" model starts at approximately $17,000, while the "G7" SUV starts at $27,300, undercutting Tesla's Model Y by about $9,000 [1] Record Deliveries - XPENG achieved record deliveries of 42,013 vehicles in the last month, representing a 76% year-over-year growth [2] - October marked the fourth consecutive month of record deliveries for the company [2] - Despite being slightly unprofitable, XPENG's revenues have shown strong upward trends with triple-digit year-over-year growth in the last two quarters [2] AI and Technology Expansion - XPENG aims to expand beyond being a traditional EV manufacturer, as demonstrated in a recent AI event [3] - The company plans to launch three robotaxi models next year, leveraging its in-house autonomous driving technology [3] - XPENG has partnered with Volkswagen as a strategic ally in its robotaxi initiative [3] Innovative Products - The company unveiled a humanoid robot named "Iron," which gained significant attention [6] - XPENG also showcased an eVTOL concept, indicating its ambitions in the flying car market [6] - The focus on AI-driven mobility positions XPENG to capitalize on emerging markets for robotaxis and humanoid robots [7] Market Position - XPENG's combination of increasing EV deliveries, a refreshed product lineup, and a strategic move into AI-driven mobility suggests potential for long-term success [11]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors is at a growth inflection point driven by "product iteration + leading smart driving," with its robot business providing long-term potential and range-extended models ensuring stable sales in the short to medium term [1] Group 1: Smart Driving and Long-term Growth - Xiaopeng Motors is positioned as a core player in smart driving, with a clear long-term growth logic. By H1 2025, the penetration rate of smart driving features (L2 and above) in China is expected to reach 82.6%. The company has focused on smart driving since its inception, developing its own Turing AI chip and VLA/VLM large models for end-to-end implementation, achieving nationwide "no-map" smart driving [2] - The company plans to expand into Robotaxi and humanoid robots, creating a three-stage growth curve of "smart driving - Robotaxi - robots," solidifying its core advantages in intelligence and forming a closed industrial chain [2] Group 2: Sales Growth Driven by Range-Extended Strategy - In response to the reduction of purchase tax and diverse user demands, the company has proposed a dual strategy of "range-extended + pure electric," planning at least five range-extended models covering sedans and SUVs. The first range-extended model, the X9, is expected to go into production within the year, complementing popular pure electric models like Mona M03 and P7 to create a more balanced product matrix [3] - The range-extended models are anticipated to become a crucial support for stable sales and market share over the next 1-2 years [3] Group 3: Product Design Logic Transformation - The company has established "design" and "intelligence" as its dual strengths, shifting its R&D process from "engineering constraints first" to "design first." The new P7 has showcased differentiated results. Future efforts will focus on enhancing design while leveraging self-developed Turing chips and large models to upgrade smart driving and smart cabin experiences [4] - Organizational adjustments and modular design will improve cost control, aiming to create a "no weaknesses, multiple strengths" framework in design, intelligence, and cost, with expectations to continuously launch high-tech and cost-effective popular models [4]

Group 1: Market Performance - During the "Double Festival" holiday, the automotive market saw a significant increase in sales, with a total of over 48,500 vehicles sold from September 30 to October 7 [1] - The retail sales volume of passenger vehicles reached 1.776 million units from September 1 to 27, marking a 12% month-on-month increase [5] - The overall market is expected to maintain a "high open and flat" trend in October, with 44.4% of dealers optimistic about a 5% to 10% year-on-year sales growth [8] Group 2: Policy Impact - The surge in car sales during the holiday was driven by two national policy adjustments: the reduction of the new energy vehicle purchase tax and the early end of the "trade-in" subsidy policy in some provinces [2] - Local governments and car manufacturers have introduced layered subsidies, with some consumers in Shanghai able to receive up to 24,000 yuan in total subsidies [3] Group 3: New Energy Vehicle Sales - New energy vehicle sales continued to rise, with companies like Chery, Changan, and Geely reporting significant year-on-year growth rates of 55.4%, 87%, and 81% respectively in September [6] - A single store of XPeng sold over 60 new cars during the "Double Festival," indicating a strong demand for popular new energy models [4] Group 4: Traditional Fuel Vehicle Market - Traditional fuel vehicles showed resilience during the holiday, primarily relying on "one-price" policies to stabilize the market [7] - However, dealers are facing increasing pressure, with a reported 52.6% of dealers experiencing losses, leading to reduced willingness to offer additional discounts [7]

Group 1 - The CEO of Xpeng Motors, He Xiaopeng, announced significant progress at the 28th Chengdu International Auto Show, highlighting strong market performance for the Mona M03 with cumulative deliveries exceeding 160,000 units and over 10,000 units delivered monthly for 11 consecutive months [1] - The newly launched P7 model has received an overwhelming market response, with over 10,000 pre-orders within 7 minutes of its release, indicating a clear consumer preference for the entry-level version and the "New Moon Silver" color option [1] - Xpeng Motors reported a record monthly delivery of 36,717 vehicles in July, representing a 229% year-on-year increase, and cumulative deliveries from January to July reached 233,906 units, up 270% year-on-year, surpassing the total delivery target for 2024 [4] Group 2 - The new P7 model is equipped with three self-developed Turing AI chips, providing a total computing power of 2,250 TOPS, which is 3 to 28 times more than other models, supporting advanced urban intelligent driving features and preparing for future L3 and L4 capabilities [3] - The company anticipates improved sales performance in August following the delivery launch of the new P7 model and expects to achieve its first quarterly profit in Q4 of this year [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaopeng Motors (09868) [1] Core Views - Xiaopeng Motors reported Q2 2025 revenue of 18.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.3%, with a Q2 gross margin of 17.3%, up 3.3 percentage points from the same period in 2024 [4][6] - The company’s gross margin reached a historical high, driven by the launch of high-priced models G6 and G9, while the sales proportion of the lower-priced Mona M03 decreased from 50% in Q1 2025 to 38% in Q2 2025 [6] - The Q3 delivery guidance is conservative, with expected deliveries between 113,000 and 118,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 142.8% to 153.6% [6] - The potential of Xiaopeng's extended-range vehicles is still to be fully realized, with the upcoming X9 model expected to alleviate range anxiety and enhance gross margins [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of the new P7 pricing and the performance of extended-range vehicles in shaping the company's growth trajectory [6] Financial Summary - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 76.99 billion, 116.42 billion, and 142.15 billion yuan, respectively, with significant growth rates of 88.4%, 51.2%, and 22.1% [8] - The net profit forecast shows a turnaround from a loss of 1.61 billion yuan in 2025 to a profit of 3.95 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a growth rate of 222% [8] - The report anticipates a price-to-sales ratio of 1.6 for 2026, suggesting a market capitalization of approximately 200.4 billion HKD and a target share price of 106 HKD [6][8]

Core Insights - Xiaopeng Motors is approaching self-sufficiency, with Q2 revenue reaching 18.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.3%, and a net loss narrowing to 480 million yuan [1][2] - The company aims to achieve profitability in Q4 2023, focusing on high-end models priced above 300,000 yuan and leveraging technology and brand value for premium pricing [2][3] Financial Performance - For the first half of the year, Xiaopeng's revenue was 34.09 billion yuan, up 132.5% year-on-year, with adjusted net loss of 810 million yuan, significantly reduced from 2.63 billion yuan in the same period last year [2] - Q2 gross profit reached 3.17 billion yuan, a 28.8% increase, with a gross margin of 17.3%, surpassing Tesla's 17.2% for the same period [2][5] - The improvement in gross margin is attributed to a shift in product sales structure and increased technical revenue from partnerships, particularly with Volkswagen [5][8] Cost Management and R&D - R&D expenses rose to 2.21 billion yuan in Q2, a 50.4% increase, while sales and administrative expenses increased by 37.7% to 2.17 billion yuan, indicating a focus on growth despite rising costs [3][9] - The company holds a cash reserve of 47.57 billion yuan, providing a buffer for ongoing investments [4] Market Strategy and Product Development - Xiaopeng plans to launch new models, including the P7 and G7 in August and the X9 in Q4, targeting the mainstream market with a focus on extended-range vehicles [10][11] - The company is enhancing its design capabilities and aims to release multiple new models priced above 300,000 yuan in 2026 and 2027 [11] Technological Advancements - Xiaopeng is investing heavily in AI technology, with plans to deploy self-developed AI chips in future models, aiming for significant advancements in autonomous driving capabilities by 2025 [12][13] - The company is also exploring the commercialization of Robotaxi services, with initial tests planned for 2026 [12][13]