机械设备 机械设备 2026 年 01 月 04 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 马斯克宏图的下一个篇章：脑机接口，2026 年将启 动大规模量产，有望解锁人机协同终极形态 ——行业周报 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 58% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 机械设备 沪深300 相关研究报告 《技术进化的 2025，走向量产的 2026， 人形机器人"黄金十年"启幕—行业 点评报告》-2025.12.29 《"结构件"与"手套"：特斯拉 Optimus 机器人轻量化的"关键一环"—行业 点评报告》-2025.12.22 《人形机器人的"起跑时刻"，把握低 Neuralink 计划 2026 年启动大规模生产，商业化进程提速 近期，埃隆·马斯克在社交媒体表态，旗下 Neuralink 将在 2026 年启动脑机接口 设备大规模生产，并同步推进流程高度精简、几乎完全自动化的手术方案，最关 键的突破在于，设备中的电极丝将直接穿过硬脑膜，而无需将其切除。这一方案 有望避免传统侵入式设备的创伤性瓶颈，还可以通过自动化手术实现效率与成本 的双向优化。同时 OpenAI 首 ...

1 月 4 日消息，特斯拉 Optimus 人形机器人的先进程度或许并未达到该公司首席执行官埃隆・马斯克所宣称的水平。尽管马斯克向投资者保证，这款机器人 能为特斯拉创造源源不断的营收，并成为公司至关重要的产品，但有报告显示，要实现这一雄心勃勃的目标，它还有很长的路要走。 据IT之家了解，马斯克对 Optimus 寄予厚望，畅想未来这些机器人能走进工厂作业、包揽家务、主刀外科手术，甚至助力火星殖民计划。他还提出要实现年 产数百万台机器人的目标，并声称这类机器人有望消除贫困，让人类不再需要为生计劳作。然而，目前每一台 Optimus 机器人都还依赖手工制造。 据《华尔街日报》的报道，想要如马斯克设想的那样，让 Optimus 大规模取代人类劳动，这款机器人仍需攻克大量技术难关。报道指出，在公开亮相场合 中，该机器人往往由人类工程师远程操控，而非自主运行。此外，特斯拉的工程师们至今仍难以造出能媲美人类手部灵敏度与灵巧度的机械手掌。有消息 称，马斯克旗下公司的部分员工也对这款机器人在制造业等日常商业运营场景中能否发挥实效提出了质疑。 2024 年 10 月，马斯克在加州华纳兄弟的摄影棚里描绘了自己的愿景。五台 Opt ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the mechanical equipment industry [5]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is expected to see rapid production scaling opportunities in the first half of 2026, driven by advancements in brain models and control technologies [3][8]. - Tesla and other leading companies have demonstrated significant progress in motion control technology for humanoid robots, indicating a shift towards mass production focus [3][8]. - The report identifies three main challenges for mass production: the development of dexterous hands, an AI brain capable of understanding the real world, and the ability to scale production efficiently, with the AI brain being the most critical challenge [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The humanoid robot industry is entering a rapid development phase, with a focus on production capabilities [3][8]. - Recent demonstrations by Tesla and Yuzhu Robotics highlight advancements in motion control technology [8]. Production Challenges - The report outlines three key challenges for humanoid robot production: hardware improvements, breakthrough functionalities, and efficiency/cost management [8]. - The AI brain's maturity is highlighted as the most significant barrier to achieving mass production [8]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that companies with strong manufacturing and management capabilities in component production will benefit the most from the upcoming production ramp-up [3]. - Specific investment targets include Top Group (601689, Buy), Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050, Buy), Wuzhou New Spring (603667, Buy), Hengli Hydraulic (601100, Not Rated), and Zhenyu Technology (300953, Buy) [3].

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of xAI, Elon Musk, expresses strong confidence in the company's future, predicting that if it survives the upcoming industry shakeout, it will dominate the AI sector [1][3]. Group 1: Technological Aspirations - The core competition in AI is centered around who can develop superintelligence that surpasses human capabilities [3]. - Musk envisions that general artificial intelligence (AGI) could be achieved within a few years, potentially as early as 2026 [5]. - The company plans to launch the Grok 5 model early next year, with a 10% chance of reaching the AGI threshold [5]. Group 2: Financial Strength and Ecosystem - xAI has a significant financial backing, with annual funding estimated between $20 billion and $30 billion, enabling extensive R&D [7]. - The integration of Grok into Tesla's automotive systems provides a unique hardware-software synergy that competitors may lack [7]. Group 3: Expansion and Innovation - xAI is aggressively expanding its data center project, increasing from 200,000 to 1 million graphics processing units (GPUs) to enhance computational power [10][11]. - The company is also rolling out product updates, including Grok Voice and new functionalities in areas like voice recognition and video editing, demonstrating both ambition and practical delivery capabilities [11]. Group 4: Future Vision - Musk has proposed the ambitious idea of establishing space data centers to support his Mars colonization plans, with Tesla's Optimus robots playing a crucial role in their operation [9]. - Despite skepticism from others in the industry, Musk views the establishment of these data centers as a matter of time [9].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide specific investment ratings for the sub-industries within the power equipment and new energy sector [2]. Core Insights - The industry is entering a critical layout period, with Longi's announcement indicating a reversal opportunity [3]. - The lithium battery supply chain's price negotiations and the progress of new energy combined with AI are key investment focuses, suggesting that lowered expectations present new layout opportunities [3]. - The new energy vehicle supply chain has entered a new upward cycle, with significant production levels expected [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Chain Prices - Recent price increases in lithium battery materials, including a 5% rise in cobalt and electrolyte prices [11][24]. - The overall industry supply-demand balance remains stable, with some products entering a destocking phase [25]. Industry News Tracking - The report highlights the ongoing developments in the new energy and AI sectors, including Tesla's advancements in humanoid robots and Longi's employee stock ownership plan [24][31]. - The report notes that the National Development and Reform Commission has revised pricing mechanisms for new energy storage, promoting market competition [27]. Recommended Companies and Ratings - Longi Green Energy, GCL-Poly Energy, and Aiko Solar are highlighted as companies to watch due to their technological leadership and potential for growth [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies with pricing power, such as CATL and BYD, in the lithium battery market [3][4].

2025 年 12 月 07 日 行业研究●证券研究报告 汽车 行业周报 人形机器人行业双周报(1124-1207)：Optimus、 周度行情回顾 2025 年 12 月 1 日至 12 月 5 日，人形机器人指数上涨 1.41%，沪深 300 指数 上涨 1.28%，人形机器人指数领先 0.13pct。 2025 年 11 月 24 日至 11 月 28 日，人形机器人指数上涨 4.78%，沪深 300 指 数上涨 1.64%，人形机器人指数领先 3.14pct。 周度热点回顾 12 月 3 日，特斯拉发布了 Optimus 在实验室中奔跑的视频。视频中，一台 Optimus 人形机器人在实验室环境中，双腿自然迈开，以肉眼可见的流畅姿态奔 跑。本次 Optimus 的奔跑，整个过程的动作表现稳定，未出现明显的失衡或冗 余动作。 Figure 03 跑步姿态超预期，人形机器人催生丝杠 12 月 4 日，Figure 发布 Figure 03 高速奔跑视频。Figure AI 创始人兼 CEO Brett Adcock 发布了一段简短视频，展示 Figure 03 在类似实验室环境中高速奔跑的 画面。视频中， ...

Group 1: Industry Commentary - The communication industry is seeing a potential catalyst with the upcoming release of Google's Gemini 3.0, which is expected to enhance AI computing capabilities significantly. The performance improvements noted in early tests suggest a strong demand for high-end AI chips, with a reported increase in token processing from 9.7 trillion to over 1,000 trillion, indicating a hundredfold growth in demand [5][6]. - The acquisition of Kuixin Technology by Heshun Petroleum aims to capitalize on the domestic communication interface IP market, with Kuixin's projected revenues of 193 million and 110 million yuan for 2024 and the first half of 2025, respectively. The valuation for 100% equity is capped at 1.588 billion yuan, with performance commitments set for 2025-2028 [5][6]. - The chemical raw materials sector is experiencing a surge in demand for lithium battery materials, driven by the booming energy storage industry. Prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate have surged to 160,000 yuan per ton, a threefold increase from the July 2025 low of 50,000 yuan, indicating a tight supply situation that may persist until 2026 [11][12]. Group 2: Company Insights - Jinwo Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 930 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.56%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 37.34 million yuan, up 74.83% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in profitability [16][18]. - The company achieved a gross margin of 15.45% in Q3 2025, an increase of 1.03 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 3.75%, up 0.73 percentage points year-on-year. This improvement is attributed to enhanced production efficiency and material utilization [16][18]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, with new projects expected to support future growth. The focus on innovative product lines, such as screw components and insulated bearing sleeves, is anticipated to drive revenue growth in the coming years [20][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the industry [5][10]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is accelerating towards large-scale production, highlighted by Tesla's plan to expand its Texas factory to produce 10 million humanoid robots annually by 2027 [1][17]. - The completion of IPO guidance for Yuzhu Technology indicates a rapid development of domestic humanoid robot leaders [2][18]. - Anthropic's $50 billion investment in AI infrastructure reflects strong demand for AI-driven cloud infrastructure [3][19]. Summary by Relevant Sections Humanoid Robots - Tesla's expansion plan for its Texas factory aims for an annual production capacity of 10 million humanoid robots, expected to commence in 2027 [1][17]. - The completion of Yuzhu Technology's IPO guidance signifies a boost for domestic humanoid robot supply chains [2][18]. - Key companies to focus on include core suppliers and those with strong market positions, such as Feirongda, Longxi Co., Weiman Sealing, Hengli Hydraulic, and others [2][7]. AI Infrastructure - Anthropic's $50 billion investment in AI data centers showcases significant capital inflow into AI infrastructure, with initial centers set to launch in 2026 [3][19]. - The report emphasizes the high growth potential of AI computing power as a primary investment theme, recommending focus on energy supply and cooling solutions for AI data centers [3][7]. Industry Dynamics - Recent developments include the launch of Russia's first domestic humanoid robot and significant investments in data center projects by major tech firms [4][21]. - The report highlights key companies to watch, including Yingli Co., Lian De Co., and Han Zhong Precision [4][12]. Company Performance Forecast - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for several key companies, all rated as "Outperform the Market," indicating expected superior performance compared to market indices [10][25].

Core Insights - Tesla's AI software VP Ashok Elluswamy indicated that next year will be the most challenging for the AI team, with a critical test for automakers expected in 2026 [1][3] - The urgency in the AI department is driven by the production timelines for the Optimus humanoid robot and the rollout of Tesla's autonomous taxi service [3][5] - Elon Musk has set ambitious goals for the company, including launching autonomous taxi services in 8 to 10 major cities by the end of 2025 and deploying over 1,000 taxis by year-end [3][5] Group 1 - Elluswamy's comments reflect a call to action for Tesla's AI employees, emphasizing the need for increased effort to meet company objectives [1][3] - The meeting lasted nearly two hours and was described as a "call to arms" for the AI team [3] - The autonomous driving and Optimus teams are prioritized projects within Tesla, working closely together in the same office space [5] Group 2 - Musk's compensation plan, recently approved by shareholders, includes ambitious milestones for the deployment of 1 million autonomous taxis and 1 million humanoid robots [5] - The autonomous driving team is known for long working hours and has maintained a separate organizational structure, often meeting with Musk weekly since its inception [5]

Macro Research - The monetary policy framework continues to emphasize "appropriate monetary policy" and "maintaining reasonable growth in financial aggregates," with a shift towards combining counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, reflecting the requirements of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2][3] - The central bank's focus is transitioning from merely short-term counter-cyclical support to a more forward-looking layout that optimizes efficiency and structural adjustments to better serve long-term economic goals [3][4] Strategy Research - The technology manufacturing sector remains highly prosperous, with rising prices in memory chips and an improved outlook for the lithium battery supply chain due to tight supply and demand [4][5] - Real estate demand is weak, with a significant decline in passenger vehicle sales, while coal demand has improved, leading to a substantial price increase [4][5] Energy Equipment and New Energy Research - The future expansion of the capacity pricing mechanism for energy storage is expected to enhance the economic viability of storage solutions across more provinces, significantly boosting demand in 2026 [8][9] - The introduction of a compensation standard for energy storage in Inner Mongolia at 0.28 yuan/kWh is anticipated to stimulate storage demand [10][25] Agriculture Research - The pet consumption sector showed strong performance during the Double 11 shopping festival, with domestic brands rising in rankings and companies like Zhongchong Co. performing exceptionally well [11][12][14] - The pet industry is experiencing a shift towards higher quality and more emotional consumption behaviors, indicating a trend of pet products becoming more integrated into family life [14][12]