2026 年 1 月 8 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】债市开年如何破局？——《央行观察》系列第十三篇 此前债市担忧的三大利空已部分消化，实际影响低于市场预期。但考虑到政策脉冲向 上，经济和股市迎来"开门红"，可能对债市情绪构成持续打压。有利因素也不可忽 视，政府债供给期限对利率走势无强解释力，且除 500 亿元国债买入信号外，央行有 意愿也有能力呵护流动性。债市整体前景并不悲观，策略上当前应重视配置，交易性 机会需耐心等待。风险提示：流动性对冲不及预期导致资金面意外波动，重大项目开 工不及预期影响经济开门红，海外突发黑天鹅事件。 12 月综合季节性特征、票据利率走势等因素，预计新增贷款在 0.8~1 万亿左右，贷 款增速落在 6.3%附近。社融层面，政府债发行进入尾声，对社融增长贡献度下降， 年末信贷季节性放量、贷款核销加大等对社融读数支撑作用显现，社融增速或落于 8.3%一线。货币方面，年末财政开支强度加大对一般存款形成回补，M2 增速或稳中 有增；春节错位叠加较高基数影响，M1 增速预计相对一般。 | | A 股市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [12]. Core Insights - The automotive dealership sector, particularly represented by Zhongsheng Holdings, is undergoing a significant transformation, moving away from being perceived as a "negative amplifier" for automakers. The company is expected to benefit from new business initiatives, particularly with the introduction of the AITO brand, which is anticipated to drive performance and valuation recovery [2][3]. - The competitive landscape in the mid-to-high-end automotive market is expected to intensify, with traditional luxury brands facing ongoing operational pressures. However, automakers are likely to adopt strategies to stabilize dealership operations, which may lead to improved profitability for dealerships [3][4]. - Fuda Co., Ltd. is highlighted for its industrialization capabilities in robotics, with recent strategic partnerships aimed at enhancing production capacity and expanding into new markets, such as exoskeleton robots [5]. - Hengbo Co., Ltd. is noted for its vertical integration in the PEEK materials sector, which positions the company favorably to meet increasing demand from overseas clients, particularly in the humanoid robotics field [6]. Summary by Company Zhongsheng Holdings - The company is expected to see a 20% or higher profit growth in the coming year, with a valuation around 7 times earnings, indicating potential for further earnings per share (EPS) and dividend benefits as it returns to a normal operating cycle [4]. Fuda Co., Ltd. - The company has established a low-cost control mechanism through domestic equipment production and partnerships, which is expected to enhance its capacity and market reach in the robotics sector [5]. Hengbo Co., Ltd. - The company has a comprehensive R&D capability and a fully integrated supply chain in the PEEK materials sector, which is expected to drive growth as demand from international clients increases [6].

摘要 机器人新材料——PEEK 材料、灵巧手 20251204 鹏峰公司作为 4,4'-二氟二苯甲酮供应商和 PEEK 产品客户，受益于人形 机器人、低空经济等战略领域对 PEEK 材料需求的增长，市值迅速提升。 其 PEEK 产品在全球排名前五，国内民族品牌中排名第二。 PEEK 材料因其耐高温、耐磨损、高强度和无油润滑等优异综合性能， 成为人形机器人关节和磨损部件的理想选择，尤其是在不能使用润滑油 的场景下，其无油润滑特性至关重要。 当前人形机器人市场仍处于初期阶段，商业化生产企业不多。尽管特斯 拉 Bot 宣称每台使用约 8 公斤 PEEK，但成本因素将影响其在普及型产 品中的应用，未来 PEEK 应用将集中在功能部件上。 鹏峰公司提供多种 PEEK 产品系列，如 8,800G/8,100G 用于齿轮部件， 8,800UFP 用于复合材料，8,900HMF40 用于高强度碳纤维，LDS PEEK 用于激光成型电路等，覆盖注塑、挤出等多种加工方式。 PEEK 材料在机器人领域应用广泛，包括旋转关节、线性关节、电池模 组、外壳承重件、伺服电机部件和齿轮系统等，利用其耐磨损、轻量化、 耐高温、绝缘等特性提升机 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - The company, established in 1995, has developed production bases in Zhejiang Taizhou, Guangdong Jiangmen, Chongqing Tongliang, and Jiangsu Changzhou, and successfully went public in 2023 [2] - Main products include automotive and motorcycle intake systems, carbon canisters, smart instruments, water side flow plates, and pipelines, widely used in fuel vehicles, hybrid, and new energy vehicles [2] - Key clients include major automotive manufacturers such as GAC, Chery, Geely, BYD, and Seres [2] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The company has achieved core process autonomy through independent research and development and is actively investing in the PEEK high-performance materials industry [2] - A joint venture with Discover Material Inc. focuses on the domestic application of advanced materials, particularly in robotics, aerospace, and medical devices [2][3] - PEEK materials are characterized by high strength, wear resistance, self-lubrication, high-temperature resistance, and good insulation, suitable for extreme environments [3] Group 3: Market Strategies - The company anticipates price reductions from major manufacturers and is preparing by simplifying designs, optimizing production processes, and enhancing bargaining power [3] - Adjustments in payment terms by automotive manufacturers to 60 days are expected to improve cash flow and reduce bad debt risks for the company [3] Group 4: Stock Performance and Shareholder Actions - The company emphasizes market value management and aims to align intrinsic and market value, with stock price fluctuations influenced by various external factors [4] - Recent share reductions were primarily due to employee stock platforms and early external investors, with the scale being relatively small [5]

Summary of Jinfa Technology Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jinfa Technology - **Industry**: Modified Plastics Key Points Sales and Profit Projections - Jinfa Technology expects modified plastic sales to reach **3 million tons** in 2025, with a net profit of approximately **3 billion yuan**, representing a year-on-year growth of nearly **20%** driven by demand from the **new energy vehicles** and **home appliance exports** sectors, as well as market share gains [2][3][5] - For 2026, modified plastic sales are projected to maintain a growth rate of **15%-20%** [2][3] Product Sales Structure - The sales structure of modified plastic products remains stable, with the automotive sector accounting for about **45%**, home appliances for **16%-17%**, and electronics for **15%**, collectively exceeding **70%** [2][6] - Emerging sectors like new energy, toys, and packaging are growing rapidly but still represent a small overall share [2][6] Competitive Advantages - Jinfa Technology is the largest modified plastic enterprise in China, with competitive advantages in **R&D investment** (3%-4% of revenue), talent acquisition, and comprehensive solutions [2][8][9] - The company has established **7 overseas bases** to enhance global operational capabilities [2][9] Financial Performance and Challenges - In the first three quarters of 2025, Jinfa Technology's overall performance met expectations, with modified plastic sales approaching **2.1 million tons** [3] - The petrochemical business is expected to incur losses of **1.4-1.5 billion yuan** in 2025, with potential improvements in 2026 if market conditions stabilize [4][15] - The company anticipates a **6-7 million yuan** impact on profits due to the stock incentive plan in 2025 [12] Future Growth and Capacity Expansion - In 2026, Jinfa Technology plans to introduce new production capacities for high-temperature nylon, LCP, and specialty nylon, expecting sales growth of over **30%**, contributing an additional **1 billion yuan** to net profit [2][13] - The company aims to double total sales from **3 million tons** to **6 million tons** over the next five years, with overseas sales reaching **1.5 to 2 million tons** [4][21] Special Materials and Innovations - The special materials segment, particularly LCP, has seen growth exceeding **50%** in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by demand from AI and high-speed connectors [11] - Jinfa Technology is developing materials for humanoid robots, focusing on high-temperature nylon and PEEK, with potential applications in joints and bearings [17][18] International Expansion - Jinfa Technology is expanding into Poland and Mexico, with production expected to start in the second quarter of 2026, targeting a total capacity of **300,000 tons** by 2030 [19][20] - The company emphasizes its competitive edge in the international market through a diverse product range and strong global supply chain capabilities [20] Collaboration and Capital Expenditure - Jinfa Technology collaborates with Siemens on material development and technology exchange, enhancing their partnership [22] - The company plans to maintain cautious capital expenditure, focusing on promising areas like new materials and biodegradable materials, with annual spending expected to remain around **3 billion yuan** [23]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In September 2025, China's exports grew by 8.3% year-on-year, driven by strong demand from non-US economies, capacity expansion overseas, and a low base effect from the previous year [2] - The export growth is expected to continue, supported by sustained demand from non-US economies and potential "export rush" due to high uncertainty in China-US trade relations [2] Group 2: Real Estate Sector - China Jinmao (0817.HK) has been included in the "China's 500 Most Valuable Brands" for 21 consecutive years, enhancing its brand value and operational efficiency, leading to a significant sales increase of 27.3% to 80.7 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025 [3] - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to 1.25 billion, 1.43 billion, and 1.58 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 13.7, 12.0, and 10.8 times, maintaining a "Buy" rating [3] Group 3: Chemical Industry - Salt Lake Industry (000792.SZ) benefited from rising potassium chloride prices due to global supply tightening, leading to better-than-expected performance in Q3 2025 [4] - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 6.149 billion, 6.648 billion, and 7.337 billion yuan, maintaining a "Buy" rating [4] Group 4: Advanced Materials - Zhongyan Co., Ltd. (688716.SH) is the largest producer of PEEK in China and is expected to achieve net profits of 29 million, 48 million, and 69 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with EPS of 0.24, 0.39, and 0.57 yuan per share [5] - The company has surpassed UK-based Victrex to become the largest seller of PEEK in the Chinese market, receiving an "Add" rating [5] Group 5: Construction Sector - Honglu Steel Structure (002541.SZ) reported a new order signing of 22.267 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, with Q3 orders up by 4.2% [7] - The company’s steel structure product output reached approximately 3.61 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11%, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 747 million, 774 million, and 854 million yuan, maintaining a "Buy" rating [7] Group 6: Pet Industry - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891.SZ) achieved a revenue of 1.43 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, but net profit decreased by 6.6% due to reduced investment income [8] - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down to 441 million, 545 million, and 668 million yuan, maintaining an "Add" rating [8]

Summary of Huami New Materials Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Huami New Materials - **Industry**: Special engineering plastics and high-temperature silicone materials Key Financials - **Revenue**: 203 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with a single-digit growth rate [2][5] - **Profit Growth**: Slowed due to increased R&D, sales expenses, and fixed asset depreciation [2][5] - **Revenue Composition**: - Rubber and plastic materials accounted for 73% of total revenue with a gross margin of 25.76% - Rubber and plastic products accounted for 27% with a gross margin of 39.97% [3][10] Core Business Segments - **Special Engineering Plastics**: Largest segment with a capacity of 35,000 tons, gradually releasing production [10] - **High-Temperature Silicone**: Collaborating with the Chinese Academy of Sciences, expected to break even next year [10] - **Self-Lubricating Bearings**: Currently in customer verification phase [10] - **PEEK Materials**: Undergoing product verification, with applications in aerospace and high-speed rail [10][24] Strategic Developments - **New Client Acquisition**: Actively pursuing partnerships with BYD and Chery, with small batch supply expected in 2025 and full-scale production in 2026 [2][12][8] - **Production Capacity Expansion**: New production lines for special engineering plastics and special rubber materials expected to significantly enhance revenue [8][10] Competitive Advantages - **R&D Capabilities**: Over 2,000 material formulations developed, enabling tailored solutions for downstream manufacturers [9][16] - **Market Position**: Strong relationships with major clients like Great Wall Motors and China CRRC, positioning the company as a key player in high-barrier industries [9][16] Industry Trends - **Market Growth**: The modified plastics market is projected to reach 400 billion yuan by 2025, growing at 8%-10% annually [5][14] - **High-End Applications**: Increasing demand for high-end rubber and plastic products in automotive, aerospace, and rail sectors [14][19] Risk Management - **Raw Material Price Fluctuations**: Established inventory management systems to mitigate risks associated with raw material price volatility [13] Future Outlook - **Market Potential**: Strong growth potential in high-end applications, particularly in PEEK materials and high-temperature silicone, with significant domestic market opportunities [24][29] - **Overall Growth Strategy**: Focus on high-end product development and market expansion to enhance profitability and open new growth avenues [26][29]

Summary of Zhongxin Fluorine Materials Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhongxin Fluorine Materials - **Industry**: Fluorine materials, specifically focusing on PEEK (Polyether Ether Ketone) and related products Key Points and Arguments Production and Capacity - PEEK material trial production has stabilized since May, with a monthly output of approximately 20 tons, aiming for a capacity target of 120-150 tons by 2026, potentially exceeding 200 tons at full capacity [2][13] - The company is currently in the trial production phase, with a high pass rate for different product models tested [12] - The production capacity for DFAPP (Polyvinylidene Fluoride) is expected to be around 20% utilization in Q4 [11] Market Dynamics - The price of PICO products is influenced by downstream demand, with premium products priced between 300,000 to 350,000, potentially dropping to around 250,000 in the future [2][17] - There is a growing interest in PEEK materials among domestic robot manufacturers, with several companies currently testing the material [26] Competitive Advantages - The core competitive advantage lies in cost control, with factors such as the length of the supply chain, production process experience, and risk management capabilities being crucial [6][7] - The purification process is more challenging due to environmental regulations, affecting the speed of capacity expansion [8] Financial Projections - The company aims to reduce losses in 2025 and expects performance recovery in 2026, with contributions from four-generation refrigerants, optical values, and PK business [5][29] - Expected profit from TFTP business in 2026 is projected to be in the range of tens of millions [30] - BPF business is anticipated to produce 600-800 tons in 2026, generating 120-150 million in revenue [31] Product Development - The company is developing modified materials primarily focusing on carbon fiber and glass fiber, with future decisions on establishing a dedicated company depending on market development [2][18] - The demand for modified materials from downstream robot manufacturers is diverse, with a focus on specific applications [19] Environmental and Regulatory Considerations - The expansion of production capacity is influenced by local policies and environmental regulations, particularly for the purification process [8][9] Future Outlook - The application of PICK (Polyimide Composite Materials) is expected to gain traction in the robotics industry by 2026, with potential revenue generation [24] - Overseas markets, especially North America, show a positive attitude towards the application of PICK, with opportunities for collaboration [25] Internal Dynamics - Internal consumption of products may offset some external sales revenue, impacting the overall financial statements [33] Additional Important Insights - The company is currently focused on trial production and testing various models, with a stable production situation reported [12] - The complexity of modifying high-temperature materials requires specialized equipment, increasing costs and processing difficulty [22] - Lightweighting is a consideration in component selection, but overall performance characteristics are more critical [28]

New Consumption - In August 2025, the GMV of the beauty category on Douyin exceeded 20 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.56% and a month-on-month growth of 21.46% [2][7] - Domestic brands performed well, with Han Shu leading the market with a GMV exceeding 700 million yuan, and the Han Shu Hongman Waist Ring Six Peptide Set being the only product to exceed 100 million yuan in sales [7][8] - The trend in Douyin beauty consumption is shifting from "trial consumption" to "stable repurchase," indicating a more rational consumer behavior focusing on product practicality [8] Robotics Industry - The human-shaped robot market is expected to grow significantly, with the market size projected to reach approximately 27.6 billion yuan in 2024 and 750 billion yuan by 2029 [9][10] - Key components for human-shaped robots include actuators, sensors, and transmission systems, with the planetary roller screw expected to account for 19% of the total cost by 2030 [9][10] - Domestic companies are gradually breaking into the high-end bearing market, which is currently dominated by eight global enterprises, with a current localization rate of less than 20% [10][11] Food and Beverage Industry - National beer companies showed stable revenue and profit performance in the first half of 2025, with cost reductions contributing to gross profit growth [15][16] - The dairy sector is expected to see a reversal in fundamentals as raw milk prices stabilize and beef prices rise, which could enhance profitability for dairy companies [16] - The snack food sector is experiencing a divergence in performance, with emerging channels like bulk snacks and membership supermarkets maintaining high momentum, while traditional channels face challenges [17] Logistics Industry - Zhonggu Logistics reported a revenue of 5.338 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 6.99% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 41.59% to 1.072 billion yuan [19][20] - The company is optimizing its capacity deployment in response to domestic demand recovery and external trade needs, which supports profit growth [20][21] - The company plans to distribute 9.03 billion yuan in dividends, reflecting its strong profit attributes [21] Public Utilities and Environmental Protection - Datang New Energy achieved a revenue of 6.845 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.26%, while net profit decreased by 4.37% [22][23] - The company’s capital expenditure significantly decreased, indicating a focus on optimizing financial structure [26][27] - The wind power sector is expected to outperform solar power in terms of output and operational cycles, with a favorable market environment anticipated for wind power operators [27]

Summary of Ningbo Huaxiang Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Ningbo Huaxiang - **Industry**: PEEK Materials Manufacturing Key Points and Arguments 1. **PEEK Particle Manufacturing Strategy**: Ningbo Huaxiang is utilizing its wholly-owned subsidiary for PEEK particle manufacturing to distribute high upstream investment costs, alleviating short-term capital pressure on the listed company. This structural design is significant for the company's financial strategy [2][4]. 2. **Market Leadership**: Ningbo Huaxiang holds a leading position in the global PEEK materials market, evidenced by: - **Production Capacity**: Current particle production capacity is 12,000 tons, with an application volume of approximately 17,000 tons, surpassing competitors like Victrex, which has a capacity of about 7,000 tons [2][5]. - **Cost Advantage**: The company employs a highly vertical integration model, managing the entire process from raw materials to particle manufacturing and downstream applications, effectively reducing costs [2][5]. - **Patent Coverage**: Ningbo Huaxiang possesses the most comprehensive patent portfolio in the industry, including data reaction, catalyst, and modification patents, making it the only domestic company likely to achieve full autonomy over these three patent categories [2][6]. 3. **Projected Financial Performance**: The PEEK materials business is expected to generate significant profits: - Upstream particle segment is projected to yield 150 million CNY in equity profit. - Downstream application segment is expected to contribute around 500 million CNY, totaling approximately 650 million CNY in net profit. With a 30x price-to-earnings ratio, this business could reach a market value of 20 billion CNY [2][7]. 4. **Overall Company Valuation**: The main business is anticipated to generate over 1.5 billion CNY in profit, leading to a total potential market value of 50 billion CNY for Ningbo Huaxiang, indicating substantial growth potential [2][7]. 5. **Future Expansion Plans**: The company plans to expand its PEEK material production by 4,000 tons by 2026, which will further enhance its market competitiveness and industry position [2][7]. 6. **Current Market Valuation**: Ningbo Huaxiang's current market value is approximately 20 billion CNY. Considering the projected profit of 1.5 billion CNY in 2026, the current price-to-earnings ratio is only in the low double digits. The high dividend yield suggests that the valuation has not fully recovered, indicating investment potential [2][8]. Additional Considerations - **Investor Focus**: Investors should monitor Ningbo Huaxiang's performance in the upcoming quarters, particularly the third quarter results and the implementation details of the PEEK materials in September and October, to better assess the company's long-term value and investment potential [3][8].