炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 记者丨董静怡 编辑丨张星 如果以"价格战"定义过去两年中国跨境电商的出海征程，那么2025年，这条赛道的关键词已经改写。 速卖通、Temu、TikTok Shop、SHEIN这四家被称为"出海四小龙"的中国跨境电商平台曾以颠覆性的成 本优势，从亚马逊手中抢夺了大量流量与市场份额。 不过，单纯的低价模式在推动规模增长效果显著，但在抗风险能力上却并不强。当全球贸易规则变化与 关税压力袭来，"四小龙"也开启了转型，强化品牌、深耕本地、提升质量。 与此同时，国际监管的审视日益严峻，从数据安全、商品合规到商业模式本身，平台面临的已不仅是市 场竞争，更是系统性的合规挑战。 在初期的价格优势之后，平台要靠什么持续留住全球消费者？ 图片来源：新华社 逆风 过去，低价一直是"四小龙"的重要标签之一。 中国超大工业体系带来的规模效应以及高效运营的供应链体系为中国B2C跨境出口电商企业带来了价廉 质优的产品，成为中国B2C跨境出口电商业务扩张的重要助力。 2024年以来，受海外通胀影响，消费者对价格的敏感程度提升，间接利好于中国跨境电商平台。平台对 于供应链 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The global e-commerce market continues to grow but at a stabilizing rate, with emerging markets (India, Southeast Asia, Latin America) becoming the main growth drivers [5] - Social e-commerce and AI technology are reshaping consumer experiences, with platforms like TikTok Shop promoting "community-driven consumption" [5] - A trend towards rational consumption is emerging, with consumers focusing more on cost-effectiveness, making alternative products (Dupe) the new norm [5] - Cross-border e-commerce faces regulatory and tariff challenges, with platforms like SHEIN and Temu accelerating localization and compliance transformations [5] - Generative AI and AI customer service enhance personalized shopping experiences, becoming new engines for e-commerce growth [5] Summary by Sections Research Background Assessment - The research is conducted by transcosmos, covering e-commerce market data from 30 countries and regions globally [3] - The report primarily focuses on data from 2024, with some forecasts extending to 2034, ensuring high timeliness and forward-looking analysis [3] Scope and Boundaries Confirmation - The report covers B2C e-commerce, including physical goods, services, cross-border e-commerce, social e-commerce, live-streaming e-commerce, and AI applications [4] - The geographical market includes 30 countries and regions, segmented into Asia-Pacific, North America, Latin America, Europe, and the Middle East & Africa [4] Key Data Capture and Presentation - The global B2C e-commerce market is projected to reach approximately $7.5 trillion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 11.5%, and is expected to grow to $15.57 trillion by 2034, with a CAGR of 7.6% [6][7] - The Asia-Pacific region holds a 52% share of the global e-commerce market, with emerging markets like India, Mexico, and Vietnam showing leading growth rates [6][9] - The social e-commerce market is expected to reach $683.9 billion in 2024, with China accounting for 76% of this market [6][9] - The cross-border e-commerce market is estimated at approximately $1.5 trillion, with significant growth in markets like Singapore and Indonesia [6][7]

引言：不可逆的全球化浪潮与中国企业的必然选择 当"内卷"成为国内市场的关键词，当技术壁垒与贸易摩擦交织成新的国际格局，"出海"已从企业的发展选项升维为国家与民族产业的生存命题。当前，我们 正站在一个历史的交汇点上：一方面，中国拥有全球最完整的工业体系与爆发式增长的科技实力；另一方面，世界正经历百年未有之大变局，产业链重组、 地缘政治演变、数字革命深化共同塑造着全新的竞技场。在此背景下，中国企业出海不再仅仅是"产品卖出去"，而是一场涉及资本、技术、管理、品牌乃至 整个产业链生态的系统性迁移与重塑。 这场迁徙中，机遇前所未有，挑战亦错综复杂。 （图源网络） 一、时代性机遇——中国出海浪潮的五大新范式 与上世纪发达国家产业转移不同，当下的中国企业出海呈现出独特的"中国范式"，这构成了我们把握机遇的核心视角。 1.规模与主体之变：从"精英出征"到"全民航海" 历史上，跨国企业多是少数巨头的游戏。而今天，中国出海队伍空前庞大，构成多元。数以万计的企业，从千亿市值的行业龙头到敏锐灵活的"微型跨国企 业"，甚至个人创业者，正将业务触角伸向全球每一个有潜力的角落。东南亚的电商平台、非洲的智能手机市场、拉美的新能源电站、欧洲的 ...

Core Insights - The central theme for 2025 in foreign trade is "change," driven by fluctuating tariffs and the need for adaptability in cross-border e-commerce [1] - The trade landscape is shifting towards diversification, with emerging markets like Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East becoming key growth drivers [5][7] Group 1: Tariff Impact and Trade Dynamics - The U.S. imposed a series of tariffs on Chinese goods, with rates reaching as high as 145%, significantly impacting trade volumes [5] - Despite a decline in exports to the U.S. by 18.9% in the first 11 months of 2025, China's overall exports grew by 5.4%, indicating a strategic shift towards cross-border e-commerce [7][8] - The cancellation of the "de minimis" policy in the U.S. led to a redirection of low-value packages to Europe, highlighting a significant change in trade routes [8] Group 2: Market Shifts and Growth Opportunities - China’s exports to the EU increased by over 14% in the first nine months of 2025, surpassing the previous year's total, as businesses sought stable markets [11] - Latin America emerged as a significant market for Chinese sellers, with a 6.9% increase in exports, reflecting a growing interest in this region [12] - The overall e-commerce market in Latin America is projected to reach approximately $191.25 billion in 2025, growing at 12.2% [12] Group 3: E-commerce Platform Strategies - Major platforms like Temu, TikTok Shop, and AliExpress are expanding their market presence and enhancing local operations to adapt to changing consumer needs [16][19] - Temu is focusing on local supply and fulfillment strategies, while TikTok Shop is rapidly expanding into new markets, including Europe and Latin America [17][19] - Amazon continues to dominate but faces increasing competition from Chinese platforms, which are leveraging lower costs and localized strategies [27][28] Group 4: Seller Dynamics and Market Competition - The competitive landscape is shifting towards a K-shaped differentiation among sellers, where those with brand awareness and operational capabilities thrive, while others struggle [36][39] - Rising costs in logistics, advertising, and compliance are pressuring sellers to adapt their strategies, with many low-cost, high-volume sellers facing challenges [37][39] - AI is becoming a critical capability for sellers, enhancing efficiency and competitiveness in the cross-border e-commerce space [42][46] Group 5: Future Outlook and Trends - The global e-commerce environment is expected to remain competitive, with a focus on local supply chains, compliance, and customer experience [25][35] - AI integration is crucial for platforms and sellers, with significant improvements in operational efficiency and customer engagement [42][49] - The evolution of cross-border e-commerce is marked by a transition from price competition to a focus on brand strength and operational excellence [35][41]

Core Insights - The global non-gaming mobile applications market experienced strong performance in Q4 2025, driven by seasonal consumption peaks and the success of ByteDance's TikTok and CapCut, which dominated revenue, downloads, and MAU rankings [1][9] Group 1: Revenue Performance - The short video sector and AI imaging tools emerged as the two major winners in Q4, with global in-app purchases for short video applications surpassing $2.8 billion, reflecting a 116% year-on-year increase [2] - ReelShort and DramaBox topped the revenue and download charts for short video applications, with DramaBox's revenue increasing by 75% to $530 million and downloads surging by 112% [2] - Dramawave, under Kunlun Wanwei, saw a 20% quarter-on-quarter revenue growth and an impressive 28-fold annual revenue increase, ranking among the top five [3] Group 2: Download Performance - The download rankings highlighted significant growth driven by year-end promotions and holiday entertainment demand, with AliExpress experiencing a 12% quarter-on-quarter increase in downloads [4] - AI search application Seekee maintained a strong position in the download rankings, while Kunlun Wanwei's FreeReels saw a remarkable 580% increase in downloads, ranking seventh [4] - ShortMax also demonstrated significant growth with over a 130% increase in downloads, indicating a shift towards multi-platform development in the short video sector [4] Group 3: Active User Metrics - Xiaomi's ecosystem solidified its global user base, with system-level tools occupying nearly one-third of the active user rankings, supported by hardware shipments in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Russia [7] - Temu, along with SHEIN and AliExpress, maintained a strong position in the active user rankings, with Temu's global monthly active users exceeding 760 million [7] - WPS Office experienced a 2.8% increase in active users, bolstered by the integration of AI office assistants, enhancing its competitiveness in the overseas mobile office market [8] Group 4: Industry Trends - The seasonal benefits are being systematically leveraged by Chinese developers, with key consumption and holiday periods becoming significant growth engines for both cross-border e-commerce and content applications [9] - AI is accelerating the commercialization of tool applications, significantly enhancing product value and user willingness to pay, leading to dual growth in revenue and usage for multiple applications in Q4 [9] - The hardware ecosystem remains a solid long-term moat, with companies like Xiaomi establishing high-frequency, essential usage scenarios in overseas markets, providing a stable user base for Chinese applications [9]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The logistics industry is experiencing a transformation driven by the reshaping of global supply chains, with Chinese logistics companies expanding into emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and Latin America, creating new demand through capital output [1][2][3] Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Strategy for 2026**: The strategy focuses on two main lines: leveraging domestic advantages in global markets and reshaping the competitive ecosystem in the domestic logistics industry [2][3] - **Drivers for Chinese Logistics Companies Going Global**: The primary driver is the fundamental change in the global supply chain, moving away from a US-China trade-centric model to new growth points in Southeast Asia and Latin America, which are rich in population and resources [3][4] - **Modes of Expansion**: Chinese logistics companies are expanding through three main models: following mining companies, manufacturing, and e-commerce platforms, with the first and third models showing strong explosive potential [5][6] Market Developments - **E-commerce Market in Southeast Asia and Latin America**: Major platforms like Shopee, TikTok Shop, and Lazada dominate the Southeast Asian market, holding over 50% market share, while Chinese-backed platforms are rapidly entering Latin America [6] - **J&T Express's Overseas Expansion**: J&T Express has rapidly expanded its overseas business through a unique profit-sharing system, achieving over 32% market share in Southeast Asia and planning further expansion into the Middle East and Latin America [7] Impact of Mining Companies on Logistics - Following mining companies requires logistics firms to provide infrastructure in exchange for overseas resources, with significant Chinese investment in African ports and infrastructure [8] Changes in Domestic Express Delivery Industry - The domestic express delivery industry is shifting from price competition to a focus on quality, service, and stability due to the fading of internet traffic dividends and intensified competition among e-commerce platforms [9] E-commerce Tax Policy Changes - Starting in 2025, a new e-commerce tax compliance policy will require platforms to report operator information quarterly, increasing tax pressure on businesses with annual revenues over 5 million yuan [11] Effects of Anti-Competition Policies - The anti-competition policies implemented in 2025 have led to improvements in express delivery prices and profitability, shifting the focus back to service quality and operational efficiency [13] Future Investment Recommendations - Future investments in the logistics sector should focus on companies with advantageous industries going global, restructuring domestic order, and positioning for commodity price cycle reversals [14] Outlook for Bulk Commodity Supply Chain Companies - Bulk commodity supply chain companies are expected to see improved performance as they expand into overseas markets, with top companies achieving 30% of their revenue from international operations [15][16]

Core Insights - The article highlights the strong growth momentum of non-gaming mobile applications from China in the global market during Q3 2025, particularly in content entertainment, AI tools, and cross-border e-commerce platforms [1] Group 1: Content Entertainment Applications - Short drama applications have significantly benefited from summer content strategies and social sharing tactics, with leading apps like DramaBox and ReelShort maintaining high download and revenue levels [10] - New emerging short drama apps, such as Melolo from ByteDance, saw a remarkable 101% increase in downloads, particularly in Southeast Asia, leveraging ultra-short video formats and social sharing rewards [10] - FlareFlow emerged as a standout performer with a 269% increase in mobile revenue in Q3, marking its entry into the overseas revenue rankings [10] Group 2: AI Tools - AI tools showed active performance in Q3, with Seekee and Cici experiencing download increases of 114% and 60% respectively, expanding their user bases in emerging markets [11] - The rise of theme beautification tools, exemplified by Themepack with a 159% increase in downloads, highlights the demand for personalized aesthetic solutions among younger users [11] - WPS Office and Meitu continued to grow steadily, with WPS benefiting from global mobile office demands and Meitu leveraging AI technology for high-quality growth in emerging markets [11] Group 3: E-commerce and Content Platforms - TikTok maintained its leadership in global downloads and active users, supported by its strong algorithm and creator ecosystem, while its video editing tool CapCut also saw stable revenue growth [12] - The international version of Xiaohongshu, renamed rednote, reported a 55% increase in overseas revenue, indicating the successful integration of content community and e-commerce [12] - Cross-border e-commerce platforms like Temu and SHEIN are expanding their user penetration in North America, Europe, and the Middle East through supply chain optimization and localized marketing [12] Group 4: Long Video Platforms - iQIYI's revenue growth is attributed to its continued investment in overseas content and multilingual adaptation strategies, solidifying its market share in the global long video sector [13] Group 5: Emerging Market Insights - New applications entering the Q3 rankings are primarily from emerging markets, particularly in Latin America and Southeast Asia, indicating a strong interest in AI technology [14] - Xiaomi's ecosystem advantages are evident as its system-level tool applications maintain multiple positions in the active user rankings, benefiting from substantial smartphone shipments in South Asia and Southeast Asia [14]

Core Insights - China's rapid economic growth has transformed it into the world's second-largest economy, significantly altering global consumption patterns and challenging Western products [2] - The shift in consumer habits within China has led to increased cross-border consumption, particularly in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, where Hong Kong residents are increasingly shopping in Shenzhen [4][6] - Chinese e-commerce platforms are gaining traction in international markets, particularly during events like Black Friday, showcasing a shift in global consumer power towards China [8][13] Cross-Border Consumption - The integration of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area has facilitated a surge in cross-border shopping, with Hong Kong residents frequently visiting Shenzhen for its diverse and affordable offerings [4][6] - Policies such as "no visa required for border crossing" and "tax refunds for departing tourists" have made cross-border shopping more accessible, creating a complementary consumption ecosystem [6] E-commerce Innovations - Chinese e-commerce platforms like Temu and TikTokShop are revolutionizing the shopping experience in North America, utilizing innovative models such as C2M (Customer-to-Manufacturer) to streamline supply chains and enhance efficiency [9][11] - The application of AI in these platforms allows for real-time price monitoring and optimization, significantly improving the shopping experience and competitiveness [11] Global Consumer Power Shift - There is a noticeable shift in global consumer power towards China, as evidenced by the increasing popularity of Chinese brands and platforms among international consumers [13][15] - The rise of Chinese brands in high-end markets and their ability to compete with established Western brands signify a transformation in global consumption dynamics [15] Conclusion - The ongoing transformation in global consumption patterns indicates that the world is beginning to embrace China's consumer ecosystem, as evidenced by the popularity of Chinese products and platforms during major shopping events [17]

Core Insights - The report highlights the integration of cross-border e-commerce and industrial belts in China, projecting a trade volume of 2.71 trillion yuan and a market size of 17.66 trillion yuan by 2024, with a growth rate of 14% [1][8][12] - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of this integration as a new driving force for foreign trade growth and manufacturing expansion [5][6] Group 1: Strategic Background - Cross-border e-commerce is becoming a new driving force for foreign trade growth, with its trade volume accounting for over 40% of total goods trade [1][7] - China's e-commerce market is the largest globally, with a market size of approximately 3 trillion USD and a penetration rate of 47% [9][10] - The report indicates that China's manufacturing sector has maintained its position as the world's largest for 15 consecutive years, with an industrial added value of 40.54 trillion yuan in 2024 [12][13] Group 2: Connotation Model - The integration of cross-border e-commerce and industrial belts involves B2B and B2C models, facilitating direct sales to consumers and businesses [21][24] - The industrial belts are characterized by high density of related industries, enhancing the efficiency of cross-border e-commerce operations [22][24] Group 3: Development Trends - The report outlines several trends, including government support for cross-border e-commerce initiatives and the establishment of comprehensive pilot zones [18][19] - Major platforms like Amazon and Temu are launching support programs for industrial belts, indicating a collaborative approach to enhance market access [18][19] - The report forecasts that Southeast Asia's e-commerce market will reach 186 billion USD by 2025, highlighting emerging markets as key targets for expansion [1][5] Group 4: Provincial and City Insights - The report provides a detailed map of industrial belts across 22 provinces, 5 autonomous regions, and 4 municipalities, showcasing regional strengths such as 3C electronics in Shenzhen and small commodities in Yiwu [1][5] - It identifies that over 50% of Amazon's sellers in China are concentrated in eastern provinces like Guangdong, with popular categories including clothing, home goods, and electronics [1][5]

Industry Overview - In the first half of the year, China's cross-border e-commerce import and export reached approximately 1.3 trillion yuan, setting a historical record [1] - The Ministry of Commerce reported that the export and import of digitally deliverable services amounted to 1.5 trillion yuan, also a historical high [1] Trade Performance - In August, China's total goods trade import and export value was 3.87 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [2] - Exports in August were 2.3 trillion yuan, up 4.8% year-on-year, while imports were 1.57 trillion yuan, increasing by 1.7% [2] - Cumulatively, from January to August, China's import and export totaled 29.57 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.5%, accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [3] E-commerce Platforms - TikTok announced that it has surpassed 200 million monthly active users in Europe, a significant increase from 175 million last year, with users aged 13 to 24 making up over 50% of the user base [5] - TEMU reported a 12.5% growth in average monthly active users in Europe, reaching 116 million, with the fastest growth in Romania at 20.5% [6] - SHEIN stated it would initiate legal proceedings against misinformation and defamation affecting its brand, emphasizing compliance with local laws and regular audits [7] Logistics and Transportation - Cainiao announced the addition of six new countries to its "Global 5-Day Delivery" service, enhancing its logistics network in key markets [8] - Xiaopeng Motors launched its first R&D center in Europe, located in Munich, aimed at understanding local user needs and accelerating technological innovation [10] - Mainline Technology secured several hundred million yuan in strategic financing to advance its global smart transportation ecosystem, focusing on L4 autonomous driving technology [11]