名创优品上调全年整体收入增长指引至超过25%，内地门店的同店销售全年有望实现同比正增长，并预 期全年经调整经营利润将达36.5亿至38.5亿元，对应同比增长7%至13%。考虑到上半年业绩和近期的销 售趋势，交银国际小幅上调2025年收入预测1%，但下调了2026至27年收入预测2%至4%，基于更加保守 的利润率假设，报告下调了2025至27年调整后净利润预测13%至14%，至28亿至40亿元。 智通财经APP获悉，交银国际发布研报称，名创优品(09896)上半年收入同比增长21.1%至93.9亿元人民 币(下同)，其中次季同比增长23.1%，超过此前指引，由海外市场和Top Toy推动。上半年经调整净利润 同比微增3%至12.8亿元，次季经调整净利润率按季改善至13.9%，但仍低于去年同期，受到海外直营店 投入的影响。基于16倍预测市盈率不变(滚动至2026年)，目标价由46.42港元升至48.7港元，维持"买 入"评级。 ...

| MNSO | 12m Price Target: $25.30 | Price: $20.84 | Upside: 21.4% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9896.HK | 12m Price Target: HK$49.00 | Price: HK$39.06 | Upside: 25.4% | Miniso reported a solid 2Q25 beat, where both revenue growth at 23% yoy (vs. guidance of 18-21%) and adj. OP growth of 8.5% yoy (vs. guidance of flat/slight yoy decline) were both above guidance and GSe. The key positive surprises came from 1) Miniso China, where sales growth of 14% yoy beat expectations and SSSG turned positive, despite flu ...

未来将继续扩大高辨识的门店网络，提升自有品牌和自有IP 的销售贡献。 名创优品—中国内地市场有序恢复，海外市场延续扩张：1）名创优品中国内地市场上半年收入同比增 长11.4%至51.1 亿元，2 季度同比增速加速至13.6%。2 季度同店同比转正（1 季度：下降中个位数）， 主要由客单价拉动，高线城市恢复好于低线城市。管理层表示，3 季度同店延续了正增长趋势，全年同 店转正可期。门店方面，2 季度扭转了1 季度的关店趋势，净增加30 家（含7 家乐园店）至4,305 家。 2）海外市场上半年收入同比增长29.4% 至35.3 亿元，2 季度同比增长28.6%。2 季度同店改善至低单位 数降幅（欧洲/北美增高个位数，拉美等有所拖累）。2 季度门店净增94家至3,307 家，管理层维持全年 净增500 家海外门店的指引（其中美国80家），但基于更加谨慎的评估，下调了新增门店中的直营比例 （从40-45%下调至35%），我们认为这将有助于资本开支的节省。 Top Toy 延续高增长：Top Toy 上半年收入维持高增长，同比提升73.0%至7.4 亿元， 2 季度录得同比 87.0%的强劲增长（超过此前70-80% ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 消费 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 8 月 22 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 39.06 | 港元 48.70↑ | +24.7% | | | 名创优品 (9896 HK) | | | | | | 2 季度业绩好于预期，管理层上调指引；维持买入评级 | 财务数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 13,839 | 16,994 | 21,158 | 24,835 | 28,388 | | 同比增长 (%) | 37.2 | 22.8 | 24.5 | 17.4 | 14.3 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | 2,253 | 2,618 | 2,564 | 3,364 | 3,967 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | 1.81 | 2.11 | 2.07 | 2.71 | 3.20 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - Miniso (名创优品) - Top Toy - Yonghui Supermarket (永辉超市) - Baijiu Industry (白酒行业) - Express Delivery Industry (快递行业) - Weixing Precision (帏翔精密) - TCL Electronics (TCL 电子) - Aimeike (爱美客) Key Points and Arguments Miniso Performance and Strategy - Miniso achieved revenue of 400 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23% and a net profit of 2.6 billion, up 16% [2] - The company opened 460 new stores in China, totaling 4,386 stores [2] - The SKU count increased to 12,600 with a monthly launch rate of 1,180 new products [2] - In overseas markets, particularly North America, 265 new stores were opened, with overseas GMV growth exceeding 50% and agency market growth at 17% [4] Top Toy Development - Top Toy opened 128 new stores last year, doubling its store count and achieving profitability with a pre-tax profit margin exceeding 9% [2][5] Yonghui Supermarket Acquisition - The acquisition of Yonghui Supermarket was completed in Q1, with expectations for it to break even this year, limiting its drag on Miniso [6] Baijiu Industry Trends - The baijiu industry is expected to see an upward turning point, with inventory decreasing year-on-year and improved demand during the Spring Festival [7] - High-end liquor demand remains stable, while mid-to-low price segments face challenges [7] Express Delivery Industry Insights - In early March, express delivery volume growth remained at 20%-21%, higher than expected [8] - A shift in the industry from peak to off-peak season is anticipated, with revenue growth expected to approach 15% [8] Weixing Precision Financials - Weixing Precision reported a net profit of 10.15 billion in 2024, a 12.7% year-on-year increase, meeting expectations [9] TCL Electronics Performance - TCL Electronics reported revenue of 99.32 billion HKD in 2024, a 25.7% increase, and a net profit of 1.61 billion HKD, up 100.1% [13] - The company expects a dividend payout ratio of 50% [13] - TV sales in China grew by 5.8%, while overseas sales increased by 17.6% [13] Aimeike's Financial Performance - Aimeike's revenue and net profit growth were approximately 5% in 2024, but Q4 saw a decline in revenue by 7% and net profit by 15% [17] - The company plans to focus on internal growth and external acquisitions, with several new products expected to launch in 2025 [18][20] Future Outlook for Aimeike - Aimeike's revenue and profit growth is projected to be around 11% in 2025, with potential acceleration in 2026 and 2027 due to new product launches and acquisitions [20] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The express delivery industry is facing a transition period, and companies like Zhongtong Express are setting ambitious growth targets of 20%-24% for parcel volume [10] - Yunda is under investigation by the National Postal Administration, which may affect its business relationships with major clients [11] - SF Express's strategic investment in Dekun Logistics aims to enhance cost efficiency through business collaboration [12] - TCL's other display and internet business segments showed steady growth, with significant contributions from innovative business areas [14][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Miniso (MNSO) with a 12-month target price of $23.40 for ADR and HK$46.00 for H-shares, reflecting a potential upside of 27.9% and 33.1% respectively [15][17]. Core Insights - Management reiterated its target for accelerated revenue growth in 2025, aiming for a year-on-year increase of 23% compared to 2024, with a focus on achieving low teens percentage growth in Miniso China sales and approximately 40% growth in overseas business [1][5]. - Despite expected slight declines in gross profit margins this year, management anticipates healthy operating profit growth for the year, with margins expected to narrow sequentially in Q2 and return to positive territory in Q3 [1][5]. - The company plans to close 300-400 underperforming or outdated stores in China, with expectations of stabilizing or slightly decreasing the number of new stores in the second quarter, but anticipates a return to store growth in the latter half of the year [1][11]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - Management expects revenue growth to accelerate in 2025, driven by positive sales and store productivity improvements, with a target of opening 500 to 600 new stores, of which 40% to 45% will be DTC stores [5][16]. - For Top Toy, management anticipates a year-on-year revenue growth of approximately 50% to 60% and plans to add 100 new stores [5]. Profit Margins - Operating profit is projected to recover to positive growth in Q3, with a target operating profit of RMB 3.6 billion to RMB 3.8 billion for the year, compared to RMB 3.2 billion last year [5][16]. - Management noted that while the operating profit margin may experience slight declines due to macroeconomic factors and DTC expansion, the pressure on margins is expected to gradually narrow [1][5][7]. Store Network and Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its store network, with plans to close underperforming stores while aiming for a net increase in store count in the latter half of the year [1][11]. - In the U.S. market, Miniso will concentrate on 24 states to achieve better economies of scale and reduce operational costs, while also optimizing its product mix to cater to local consumers [6][10]. Product Mix and Market Adaptation - The product mix includes a focus on toys and lifestyle products, with a strategy to increase local sourcing to mitigate potential tariff risks [10][12]. - Management aims to enhance the contribution of third-party products to diversify the product range while maintaining overall gross margin stability [12].