编者按 2026 年是 " 十五五 " 开局之年，市场正在寻找新的方向。 面对宏观环境的变化、产业格局的调整，投资者需要穿透短期波动，看清中长期的主线。这不容易，但 值得尝试。 为此，中信保诚基金推出 "2026 ，预见 " 系列，围绕宏观、固收、固收 + 、权益、商品、红利、周期、科 技八个领域，分享我们的研究和思考。 我们不预测市场，而是梳理逻辑；不给出答案，而是提供视角。希望这些内容能帮助您在做投资决策 时，多一份参考。 本系列共八篇，将陆续发布。感谢您的关注。 回顾2025年，A股市场在波澜壮阔的行情中创下多项历史记录。展望2026年，中信保诚基金认为，尽管 市场短期或受情绪与资金面扰动，但在盈利修复、流动性宽裕及产业趋势推动下，中长期"慢牛"格局依 然值得期待，投资主线或将从概念预期进一步转向基本面验证。 2025年：科技点燃行情，新消费崛起，市场信心显著修复 2025年注定是中国资本市场发展史上值得铭记的一年。春节前后，国产大模型DeepSeek用户规模迅速 突破1亿，增速超越ChatGPT早期记录，直接点燃了算力、云计算等科技板块的行情，成为年内首个重 要的市场催化剂。 四月，面对全球市场的剧烈 ...

Core Insights - The article summarizes key developments in China and the world in 2025, focusing on economic policies, market trends, and significant events that shaped various industries. Group 1: Economic Policies and Reforms - The main theme of 2025's economic work is the comprehensive rectification of "involution" in competition, with government reports emphasizing the need to regulate low-price competition and improve product quality [4] - The year marks the conclusion of the deepening reform of state-owned enterprises, with significant progress in strategic restructuring and improved governance [6] - The implementation of the "Private Economy Promotion Law" aims to create a fair business environment and protect the rights of private enterprises [7] Group 2: Debt Management and Fiscal Policies - A plan to replace 10 trillion yuan of hidden local government debt over five years was launched, with nearly 6 trillion yuan replaced by the end of 2025, significantly reducing debt risks [8] - The issuance of ultra-long special government bonds reached 1.3 trillion yuan, supporting major projects and expanding policies to boost consumption [9] Group 3: Consumer and Market Trends - A special action plan to boost consumption was introduced, focusing on increasing residents' income and improving consumer confidence [10] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index reach 4,000 points for the first time in ten years, with total trading volume exceeding 400 trillion yuan [13] Group 4: Industry Developments - The gold market experienced a historic surge, with prices rising from $2,625 to a peak of $4,550 per ounce, driven by macroeconomic factors and central bank purchases [14] - The introduction of the "Science and Technology Innovation Growth Layer" on the STAR Market accelerated the IPO process for unprofitable companies, marking a significant shift in capital market dynamics [19] Group 5: Corporate Events and Challenges - The external delivery market saw increased competition with new entrants like JD and Taobao, reshaping the landscape and enhancing consumer choices [22] - The controversy surrounding Wahaha highlighted family disputes and governance issues within the company, affecting its market position [23] - The restaurant industry faced challenges as the crisis at Xibei over pre-made dishes prompted a reevaluation of consumer trust and operational practices [29]

（来源：南京晨报） 转自：南京晨报 2025年，在中国社会经济蓬勃发展的浪潮里，涌现出一波又一波现象级的新潮流。从全民参与的草根体 育狂欢，到改变生活的AI技术突破；从越来越亮眼的文化输出，到悄然转变的消费模式，这些鲜活 的"潮向"不仅勾勒出当下的时代脉搏，更指向了未来的发展轨迹。 苏超"燎原" 草根足球的全民热血时刻 国产AI深度赋能工作生活 2025年，一场名为"苏超"的江苏省业余足球联赛，以野火燎原之势席卷全国，成为年度现象级体育文化 事件。自5月开赛以来，这项覆盖全省13个设区市的赛事彻底"破圈"，全网话题量破百亿、场均观众超3 万人、单场上座人数峰值高达6万，每轮赛事更是引发百万人次抢票热潮，商业赞助早早宣告"一席难 求"。"苏超"的魅力，在于它"接地气"与强大的凝聚力。这不仅是一场场足球对决，更是城市荣誉感与 地域文化的集中释放。球迷们身着代表家乡的配色"战袍"，用方言呐喊助威，将绿茵场变成了情感共鸣 的狂欢现场。正是这种源于乡土、激发共鸣的蓬勃生命力，让"苏超"超越了赛事本身，为文体活动的创 新发展提供了鲜活样本。 票根"变身" 一张小票撬动消费新生态 2025年，"票根"不再只是一张简单的入场 ...

Core Insights - The year 2025 is marked as a transformative year in business, driven by significant advancements in AI and technology, particularly highlighted by DeepSeek's cost-effective AI model that challenges existing market paradigms [1][3][4]. Group 1: AI and Technology Developments - DeepSeek's R1 model, launched on January 20, 2025, achieved performance comparable to OpenAI's models at a fraction of the cost, using only 2,000 GPUs and approximately $600,000 in training expenses, less than one-tenth of OpenAI's costs [5][8]. - The market reacted dramatically to DeepSeek's success, leading to a significant drop in Nvidia's stock, with a loss of nearly $600 billion in market value, marking a historic event in the stock market [10][12]. - The Chinese tech sector saw a resurgence, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising over 4% shortly after DeepSeek's impact, indicating a shift in investor focus towards Chinese tech companies [11][12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The entry of JD.com into the food delivery market initiated a fierce competition with Alibaba and Meituan, leading to aggressive subsidy wars and a new competitive landscape in the industry [24][27]. - The battle for market share in food delivery is characterized by significant discounts and promotional offers, with Meituan experiencing record order volumes amid the competition [29]. Group 3: Innovations in Consumer Products - Pop Mart's Labubu character gained global popularity, leading to a 170%-175% year-on-year revenue increase in Q1 2025, with significant growth in international markets [20][23]. - The stock price of Pop Mart surged over 200% in the first half of 2025, reflecting strong market interest and investment confidence in the brand's potential [20][23]. Group 4: Regulatory and Economic Responses - In response to external economic pressures, the Chinese government implemented a "stabilization fund" strategy to support the capital market, demonstrating a proactive approach to maintain market confidence [15][17]. - The People's Bank of China provided liquidity support to stabilize the market, showcasing a coordinated effort to mitigate the impact of geopolitical tensions on the economy [15][17]. Group 5: Advancements in Autonomous Driving and GPU Technology - China officially approved L3 autonomous driving vehicles for commercial use, marking a significant milestone in the automotive industry and setting the stage for a market expected to exceed 1.2 trillion yuan by 2030 [40][41]. - The emergence of domestic GPU manufacturers, referred to as the "Four Little Dragons," is reshaping the semiconductor landscape, with significant IPO activity and competitive differentiation among companies [42][44].

Group 1 - The A-share market achieved multiple historical records in 2025, with a significant recovery in market confidence driven by technology and new consumption [2][14] - The total market capitalization of A-shares surpassed 100 trillion yuan in June 2025, and trading volume reached a historical high in August, indicating deep recovery in market participation and confidence [14] - The rise of new consumption, exemplified by successful products like Labubu and the global box office success of "Nezha 2," injected new growth momentum into the consumption sector [14] Group 2 - After the National Day holiday, the market experienced fluctuations, particularly in the technology sector, due to both external factors like the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and internal profit-taking [15] - Despite short-term volatility, the core narrative supporting market optimism remains unchanged, with expectations of a reasonably ample domestic liquidity environment and gradual recovery in corporate earnings [15] Group 3 - The market style in 2026 is expected to become more balanced and refined, moving away from being dominated by a single style [16] - The investment focus is anticipated to shift towards AI applications, with a transition from infrastructure to actual applications and commercialization [16] - Companies with solid performance in AI applications, domestic substitution, and overseas expansion are likely to attract market attention due to their high growth potential [16] Group 4 - From a financial perspective, 2026 may exhibit characteristics of "profit handover," with key areas of focus including the "computing power-storage-power-manufacturing" chain and the commercialization of application endpoints [17] - Monitoring order and profit recovery progress will be crucial, alongside attention to supply-side reforms and capital market optimizations [17] Group 5 - The key investment factor in 2026 is expected to be the ability to deliver on fundamental performance, with a shift in market scrutiny towards the quality of earnings growth and sustainability of business models [18] - Companies with core technologies and clear commercialization paths in sectors like AI, pharmaceuticals, and high-end manufacturing are likely to stand out [18] Group 6 - Positive factors include ongoing anti-involution policies improving the corporate profit environment and a long-term trend of asset allocation towards equity markets, potentially leading to substantial incremental capital [19] - The upward trend in industries like AI, semiconductors, and smart vehicles may provide clear investment lines [19] Group 7 - Opportunities are expected to arise in new consumption areas, particularly those integrating AI technology, such as intelligent companionship and interactive entertainment [21] - The AI computing infrastructure and consumer electronics driven by AI innovations are anticipated to see significant growth, alongside the international expansion of healthcare sectors [21]

Core Insights - The Hangzhou Cultural Expo has become a significant driver of cultural consumption and new productive forces in the region, showcasing a vibrant atmosphere with high participation and sales figures [6][7]. Group 1: Event Performance - The total transaction amount at the main venue reached 6.685 billion yuan, with key cultural industry project signings amounting to 6.235 billion yuan and on-site cultural consumption around 450 million yuan, setting a new record [6]. - The event attracted over 5,800 cultural and creative enterprises and organizations from 66 countries and regions, with international exhibits occupying more than 50% of the total exhibition area [8]. Group 2: Consumer Engagement - The "Cultural Expo Benefit Consumption Season" was launched, distributing over 10,000 "Cultural Expo Benefit Travel Cards" and linking over 600 consumption experience points, successfully creating a new model for consumer benefits and driving consumption exceeding 900 million yuan [8]. Group 3: Industry Collaboration - A total of 14 projects were signed during the opening ceremony, involving an amount of 6.235 billion yuan, alongside over 10 business matchmaking events and the release of significant industry indices and research results [8]. Group 4: Technological Integration - The exhibition featured a "Smart Empowerment" area covering over 30% of the total exhibition space, showcasing nearly 100 innovative applications in AI, robotics, and low-altitude economy [9]. Group 5: Scale and Participation - The event included one main venue and 28 sub-venues, with 79 supporting activities and approximately 2.3 million participants, highlighting the extensive reach and engagement of the expo [9]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The 2026 Hangzhou Cultural Expo aims to achieve breakthroughs in internationalization, professionalism, industrialization, and branding, contributing to the city's goal of becoming an international cultural and creative center [10].

Core Insights - The article discusses the success of the Chinese tea brand WHOA TEA in Saudi Arabia, highlighting its innovative approach to local consumer preferences and emotional engagement [4][5][6]. Group 1: WHOA TEA's Market Strategy - WHOA TEA has rapidly gained popularity in Saudi Arabia, selling tens of thousands of Labubu toys, surpassing local competitors like MINISO [4][5]. - The brand's success is attributed to creating a social space for young people, rather than merely changing local tastes [5][6]. - WHOA TEA's founders recognized the limited initial customer base for Chinese milk tea and adapted their offerings to meet local entertainment and social needs [7][10]. Group 2: Cultural Adaptation and Themes - The brand incorporates popular themes such as trendy toys and board games to attract customers, creating a unique social experience [10][11]. - WHOA TEA has also tapped into the Korean Wave, appealing to young Saudi women by hosting events related to K-Pop and integrating Korean cultural elements into their stores [13][14]. - The introduction of a keychain inspired by Labubu, named "Lanunu," led to viral marketing success, significantly boosting sales and local engagement [18][19]. Group 3: Emotional Economy and Consumer Behavior - The article emphasizes the importance of emotional engagement in driving consumer behavior in Saudi Arabia, where social connections and identity are crucial [31][35]. - WHOA TEA's approach aligns with the broader trend of emotional economy, where brands create experiences that resonate with local cultural identities [31][38]. - The success of WHOA TEA reflects a growing demand for entertainment and social spaces in Saudi Arabia, driven by the country's Vision 2030 initiative [35][38]. Group 4: Online and Offline Integration - The rise of online platforms like TopTop illustrates the blending of social interaction and entertainment, catering to the emotional needs of Saudi consumers [20][21]. - TopTop's model of community engagement mirrors WHOA TEA's offline strategies, highlighting the significance of emotional connections in both online and offline settings [20][30]. - The article suggests that successful brands in Saudi Arabia must continuously innovate and adapt to local cultural dynamics to maintain consumer interest and loyalty [35][38].

Core Insights - Douyin e-commerce has initiated a series of special governance actions to address issues related to counterfeit goods, false advertising, malicious hype, and after-sales disputes, with three actions taken within four days [1][2] Group 1: Governance Actions - The platform has identified merchants selling counterfeit products under the guise of genuine items, leading to the removal of over 200 non-compliant merchants and more than 600 influencers from the Douyin marketplace [1] - Specific actions include the removal of products falsely advertised as "genuine Labubu" and "new unopened," which were actually replicas or high-quality imitations [1] Group 2: Fraudulent Activities - Douyin has also targeted fraudulent activities involving "fruit pick-up cards," where merchants lured consumers with low-priced fruit but issued fake pick-up cards, resulting in financial losses for users [2] - A total of 1,229 non-compliant stores and 373 influencers have been dealt with in relation to this fraudulent scheme [2] Group 3: Consumer Protection Measures - The platform has taken action against 25 merchants for leaking user information, which led to scams where consumers received unsolicited messages or calls claiming "wrong charges" [2] - Douyin e-commerce emphasizes ongoing efforts to strengthen governance, enhance cooperation with brand partners, and establish a counterfeit prevention database to protect consumer rights and maintain a trustworthy e-commerce environment [2]

Group 1: Overview of China's Consumer Market in 2025 - The Chinese consumer market in the first half of 2025 shows a unique trend of "macro caution, micro activity," with consumer confidence at historical lows while core consumption categories are steadily recovering [12][14] - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with May's growth rate reaching a two-year high [16][19] - The food category led the growth with a 12.3% year-on-year increase, driven by the rapid expansion of new channels like snack specialty stores and membership discount supermarkets [16][19] Group 2: Tourism Recovery - The tourism industry has seen a strong recovery, with international flight passenger volumes in the first and second quarters of 2025 increasing by 9% and 13% compared to the same periods in 2019 [20][36] - Domestic travel also surged, with 329 million trips taken in the first half of 2025, an 18% increase from 2019 [20][36] - The number of inbound tourists reached over 35 million in the first quarter of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, marking a historical high for a single quarter [29][36] Group 3: New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) - China has become the world's largest automobile exporter, with nearly 5.5 million vehicles exported in 2024, an eightfold increase from 2019 [24][28] - NEVs accounted for nearly half of passenger car exports in the first half of 2025, with domestic brands holding a market share close to 90% in the NEV segment [28][21] - BYD surpassed Tesla to become the world's largest electric vehicle manufacturer in 2024, with sales reaching 4.27 million units and revenue of $108 billion [28] Group 4: Cultural Export and Trends - The cultural export sector, particularly in video games and trendy toys, has gained momentum, with the game "Black Myth: Wukong" selling 28 million copies and generating revenue of 9 billion yuan [42][43] - The toy brand Pop Mart's Labubu character has gained global popularity, with revenue from the "Monster Series" increasing by 726% year-on-year, reaching over 3 billion yuan [43][46] - The overseas market contribution to Pop Mart's revenue rose from 4% in 2021 to 39% in 2024, indicating a significant expansion [43] Group 5: Capital Market Dynamics - The capital market in Hong Kong saw a significant rebound in the first half of 2025, with total financing reaching 107.1 billion HKD, a substantial increase from the previous year [37][41] - Consumer-related companies have become a major force in the capital market, with four out of the top ten IPOs in Hong Kong coming from the consumer sector [37][41] - Private equity and venture capital activities also surged, with transaction volumes in the second quarter reaching 2.28 trillion yuan, doubling from the previous quarter [41] Group 6: Foreign Brands in China - Foreign brands are experiencing a resurgence in China, particularly in the outdoor sportswear segment, which has seen sales double over the past five years [47] - Several new or expanding brands have achieved annual revenues exceeding $500 million, reflecting the growing consumer interest in health and outdoor activities [47] - This trend indicates a robust market opportunity for international brands to adapt to local demands and capitalize on China's consumption upgrade [47]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong A-shares and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption 50 ETF (159268) both saw gains, with the ETF rising over 1% and attracting a net inflow of 6.4 million yuan for six consecutive days, totaling over 150 million yuan [1] - Notable stocks included Miniso, which surged over 18% post-earnings, Li Ning up over 7%, Anta Sports up over 3%, and Pop Mart up over 2% [1] Group 2: Company Earnings - Miniso reported a second-quarter revenue of 4.966 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, with adjusted operating profit rising 8.5% to 852 million yuan and an adjusted operating profit margin of 17.2%, exceeding company guidance [2] Group 3: Consumer Trends - McKinsey highlighted five surprising trends in the Chinese consumer market for the first half of 2025, indicating a shift in consumer sentiment despite weak confidence and ongoing pressures in the real estate market [5] - The report noted a steady recovery in core retail categories, with air travel surpassing 2019 levels and China's automotive exports becoming the largest globally, with an expected export volume of nearly 5.5 million vehicles in 2024, eight times that of 2019 [6] Group 4: Tourism and Capital Markets - The number of inbound tourists to China reached a record high, with over 35 million visitors in the first quarter of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.6% [9] - The capital market's recovery in 2025 has been significant for consumer enterprises, with four of the top ten IPOs in Hong Kong coming from the consumption sector, indicating strong investor confidence in the long-term prospects of the Chinese consumer market [12] Group 5: Cultural and Product Trends - Pop Mart's Labubu character gained international popularity, with revenue from its monster series increasing by 726% in 2024, contributing significantly to the company's overall revenue [15]