新京报贝壳财经讯（记者罗亦丹）9月10日，抖音电商安全与信任中心表示，平台注意到 Labubu 相关商品在少数直播间和店铺中出现 假货、虚假宣传、恶意炒作、售后争议等问题，并对此进行了专项治理。加上9月8日针对"水果提货卡"引流诈骗行为的专项治理，以 及9月7日对话费充值欺诈行为的专项治理，抖音四天内已经对违规行为开展了三次专项治理。 具体来看，平台发现部分商家存在售卖假货冒充正品等行为。例如"鹏业""LAbubu*潮玩店"等在直播间反复宣称"正品Labubu""正版 POP""全新未开封""假一赔三"，通过强调正品保障来误导消费者，但实际发货商品均为仿品或高仿品，明显与宣传不符。这类行为涉 嫌假冒侵权，平台已对涉事商家予以清退、冻结货款，相关商品清除出抖音商城精选联盟。截至目前，累计清退违规商家超200个、违 规达人超600名，相关商品均已被清除出抖音商城精选联盟。 另一违规行为是"水果提货卡"，部分商家以低价水果为噱头，实则发放伪造提货卡，诱导消费者扫码下载第三方软件或先充值后提 货，造成用户财产损失。截至目前，平台已处置违规店铺1229家、达人373名。引流欺诈作为网络欺诈中的顽疾，在行业内存在已久， ...

Group 1: Overview of China's Consumer Market in 2025 - The Chinese consumer market in the first half of 2025 shows a unique trend of "macro caution, micro activity," with consumer confidence at historical lows while core consumption categories are steadily recovering [12][14] - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with May's growth rate reaching a two-year high [16][19] - The food category led the growth with a 12.3% year-on-year increase, driven by the rapid expansion of new channels like snack specialty stores and membership discount supermarkets [16][19] Group 2: Tourism Recovery - The tourism industry has seen a strong recovery, with international flight passenger volumes in the first and second quarters of 2025 increasing by 9% and 13% compared to the same periods in 2019 [20][36] - Domestic travel also surged, with 329 million trips taken in the first half of 2025, an 18% increase from 2019 [20][36] - The number of inbound tourists reached over 35 million in the first quarter of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, marking a historical high for a single quarter [29][36] Group 3: New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) - China has become the world's largest automobile exporter, with nearly 5.5 million vehicles exported in 2024, an eightfold increase from 2019 [24][28] - NEVs accounted for nearly half of passenger car exports in the first half of 2025, with domestic brands holding a market share close to 90% in the NEV segment [28][21] - BYD surpassed Tesla to become the world's largest electric vehicle manufacturer in 2024, with sales reaching 4.27 million units and revenue of $108 billion [28] Group 4: Cultural Export and Trends - The cultural export sector, particularly in video games and trendy toys, has gained momentum, with the game "Black Myth: Wukong" selling 28 million copies and generating revenue of 9 billion yuan [42][43] - The toy brand Pop Mart's Labubu character has gained global popularity, with revenue from the "Monster Series" increasing by 726% year-on-year, reaching over 3 billion yuan [43][46] - The overseas market contribution to Pop Mart's revenue rose from 4% in 2021 to 39% in 2024, indicating a significant expansion [43] Group 5: Capital Market Dynamics - The capital market in Hong Kong saw a significant rebound in the first half of 2025, with total financing reaching 107.1 billion HKD, a substantial increase from the previous year [37][41] - Consumer-related companies have become a major force in the capital market, with four out of the top ten IPOs in Hong Kong coming from the consumer sector [37][41] - Private equity and venture capital activities also surged, with transaction volumes in the second quarter reaching 2.28 trillion yuan, doubling from the previous quarter [41] Group 6: Foreign Brands in China - Foreign brands are experiencing a resurgence in China, particularly in the outdoor sportswear segment, which has seen sales double over the past five years [47] - Several new or expanding brands have achieved annual revenues exceeding $500 million, reflecting the growing consumer interest in health and outdoor activities [47] - This trend indicates a robust market opportunity for international brands to adapt to local demands and capitalize on China's consumption upgrade [47]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong A-shares and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption 50 ETF (159268) both saw gains, with the ETF rising over 1% and attracting a net inflow of 6.4 million yuan for six consecutive days, totaling over 150 million yuan [1] - Notable stocks included Miniso, which surged over 18% post-earnings, Li Ning up over 7%, Anta Sports up over 3%, and Pop Mart up over 2% [1] Group 2: Company Earnings - Miniso reported a second-quarter revenue of 4.966 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, with adjusted operating profit rising 8.5% to 852 million yuan and an adjusted operating profit margin of 17.2%, exceeding company guidance [2] Group 3: Consumer Trends - McKinsey highlighted five surprising trends in the Chinese consumer market for the first half of 2025, indicating a shift in consumer sentiment despite weak confidence and ongoing pressures in the real estate market [5] - The report noted a steady recovery in core retail categories, with air travel surpassing 2019 levels and China's automotive exports becoming the largest globally, with an expected export volume of nearly 5.5 million vehicles in 2024, eight times that of 2019 [6] Group 4: Tourism and Capital Markets - The number of inbound tourists to China reached a record high, with over 35 million visitors in the first quarter of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.6% [9] - The capital market's recovery in 2025 has been significant for consumer enterprises, with four of the top ten IPOs in Hong Kong coming from the consumption sector, indicating strong investor confidence in the long-term prospects of the Chinese consumer market [12] Group 5: Cultural and Product Trends - Pop Mart's Labubu character gained international popularity, with revenue from its monster series increasing by 726% in 2024, contributing significantly to the company's overall revenue [15]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese consumer market is undergoing profound changes, characterized by a juxtaposition of thriving new consumption trends and traditional giants facing price pressures, reflecting a restructured supply-demand relationship and evolving consumer needs [1][3][5]. Group 1: New Consumption Trends - New consumption is not a fleeting "internet celebrity" phenomenon but a deepening of consumption upgrades and a revolution in business philosophy [1][8]. - The rise of new consumption is supported by government policies encouraging the development of new consumption sectors, such as original IP brands and domestic products [7]. - New consumption is driven by technological and innovative efficiency revolutions, product and scenario upgrades, while maintaining a focus on quality and emotional connections with brands [14][15]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior Changes - Consumers are increasingly valuing emotional satisfaction alongside practical needs, with a notable shift towards experiences that enhance their quality of life [17][19]. - The demand for high-quality, innovative products that address life pain points is growing, while consumers are also sensitive to pricing and quality [19][21]. - The Z generation and Alpha generation, comprising approximately 35% of the total population in 2024, are expected to significantly influence consumption patterns with their unique preferences [23]. Group 3: Market Segmentation - There is a clear segmentation in consumer confidence and spending, with diverse groups presenting structural opportunities for brands [21]. - The aging population is creating new market demands, particularly in areas like smart home innovations and travel experiences for the elderly [23]. - Young urban professionals are exhibiting a trend towards "consumption grading," balancing essential spending with a desire for high-quality experiences [24].

Core Conclusions - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market's new consumption sector has shown impressive performance in the first half of the year, but has entered a phase of digestion and volatility since mid-June [1][8] - The macro logic supporting the new consumption trend is based on the historical shift in consumer behavior observed in Japan, where consumption has transitioned from mass-market to personalized and rational consumption [1][20] - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong exhibits higher growth potential compared to the A-share market, driven by evolving consumer concepts and demographic changes [1][30] Current Phase of New Consumption - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong is currently experiencing a phase of heat digestion, following a significant rise in the first half of the year, with notable stocks like Pop Mart, Old Puhuang, and Mixue Group seeing an average price increase of 247% [8][9] - The shift in consumer focus towards experience and participation, characterized by "self-consumption" and "social consumption," has led to a surge in popularity for categories such as trendy toys, tea drinks, and luxury jewelry [8][9] - Since mid-June, the new consumption stocks have faced a correction, with the average decline of the "three golden flowers" reaching 25% [9][17] Mid-term Support for New Consumption - Despite the recent volatility, the report suggests that the macroeconomic logic supporting the new consumption trend remains intact, with historical parallels drawn from Japan's consumption evolution [20][22] - The report references Maslow's hierarchy of needs, indicating that as income rises, consumer demand is shifting from material to spiritual needs, reflecting a broader trend towards personalized and rational consumption [20][30] - The ongoing demographic changes and the evolution of consumer concepts in China are expected to sustain the growth of the new consumption sector in the long term [30][31] Advantages of Hong Kong's New Consumption Assets - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong is characterized by a higher proportion of innovative consumption compared to the A-share market, which is dominated by traditional sectors like liquor and home appliances [33][35] - The financial performance of Hong Kong's new consumption stocks is robust, with projected revenue growth of 54% for key players in 2024, significantly outpacing the A-share market [35][39] - The report anticipates continued inflows into Hong Kong's new consumption sector from public funds, with an estimated total inflow of 300 to 450 billion yuan expected in 2025 [35][41] Future Trends and Opportunities - The report identifies several emerging trends in consumer behavior, including the rise of the Z generation, single households, and the aging population, which are driving demand for personalized and emotional consumption experiences [31][47] - The pet economy is highlighted as a rapidly growing sector, with a projected market size of 811.4 billion yuan by 2025, driven by increasing emotional needs among consumers [47][54] - The report emphasizes that policy support for consumption is likely to enhance consumer confidence and spending, particularly in the areas of self-consumption and value-for-money products [47][48]

Group 1: Trade Performance - In the first half of the year, China's total goods trade import and export volume reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] - Exports amounted to 13 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports were 8.79 trillion yuan, decreasing by 2.7% [1] - In June alone, the import and export scale grew by 5.2% year-on-year to 3.85 trillion yuan, marking the second-highest monthly trade volume in history [1] Group 2: High-tech Product Exports - High-tech product exports increased by 9.2% in the first half of the year, maintaining growth for nine consecutive months [1] - Key high-tech exports included high-end machine tools, ships, and marine engineering equipment, all exceeding 20% growth, while instrument exports rose by 14.7% [1] - The proportion of self-owned brands in high-tech products reached 32.4%, up by 1.2 percentage points from the same period last year [1] Group 3: Market Adaptation and Innovation - More enterprises are adapting to international market demands by offering differentiated and customized products, such as solar-powered phones for areas with power shortages [2] - The popularity of Chinese products is also enhanced by "soft power," exemplified by the global success of "Labubu," which has increased the appeal of Chinese toys in international markets [2] - In the first four months, exports of dolls and animal toys exceeded 10 billion yuan, reaching 13.31 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.6% [2] Group 4: Trade Relations and Challenges - China's trade with the U.S. saw a total value of 2.08 trillion yuan in the first half, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%, with exports down by 9.9% and imports down by 7.7% [3] - The decline in trade with the U.S. was influenced by "reciprocal tariffs," with a significant drop of 20.8% in the second quarter [3] - Recent trade talks in Geneva and London have shown positive progress, with June's trade value rebounding from May's figures, indicating a narrowing of the year-on-year decline [3]

Core Insights - The new LEGO product "Toothless" has faced poor sales performance, with a significant price difference between the official store and second-hand platforms, indicating a cooling market for LEGO products [2][11] - The overall LEGO market is experiencing increased competition, with some speculators shifting their focus to Labubu, a new toy brand, which is impacting LEGO's customer base [2][13] Sales Performance - Despite the challenges, the LEGO store in Jinan's Hang Lung Plaza reported stable customer traffic and sales, particularly during the summer season [3][5] - The official price of the new "Toothless" product remains consistent across online and offline channels, with no current discounts available [5][11] Market Trends - LEGO's overall financial performance remains strong, with a reported revenue of 743 billion Danish Kroner (approximately 70.27 billion RMB) for 2024, reflecting a 13% year-on-year growth [7] - Older LEGO sets are reportedly selling better than new releases, with some customers preferring completed sets for their affordability and ease of use [11][12] Consumer Behavior - Many consumers express that LEGO products are becoming too expensive, leading to a decline in speculative buying behavior [11][13] - The appeal of completed LEGO sets is growing, as they offer a more immediate satisfaction compared to the higher-priced new sets [12][13] Competitive Landscape - The rise of Labubu and other domestic brands is creating a more competitive environment for LEGO, with some consumers feeling that LEGO has not innovated enough to maintain its market dominance [11][13] - The LEGO brand is attempting to adapt by increasing collaborations with popular IPs, such as Mario and Pixar, to attract a broader audience [14]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart is expanding its reach beyond trendy toys into various industries, including jewelry and potentially home appliances, indicating a strategic diversification of its business model [1][20]. Group 1: Jewelry Expansion - Pop Mart has launched an independent jewelry brand, POPOP, focusing on fashion jewelry with a price range from 319 yuan to 26,990 yuan, with the most expensive item being an 18k gold necklace weighing 8.65g [1][16]. - The jewelry line aims to leverage existing IPs like Labubu and Molly, but faces challenges in design and material quality, with mixed consumer feedback regarding pricing and aesthetics [3][11]. - The company is exploring the integration of its IPs into jewelry, but the execution has been criticized for lacking originality and clarity in design, which is crucial for success in the fashion jewelry market [14][19]. Group 2: Market Reception and Challenges - Initial market reception for POPOP has been lukewarm, with reports of low foot traffic and consumer interest compared to the more popular toy lines [10][27]. - Consumers have expressed concerns about the pricing of jewelry, with some feeling it is too high, while others who are fans of Pop Mart's products find it acceptable if the quality is sufficient [3][10]. - The design complexity of jewelry items has led to some products being oversized or lacking detail, which detracts from their appeal [5][7]. Group 3: Future Directions and Industry Context - Pop Mart is also venturing into the home appliance sector, hiring experts in the field, which reflects a broader strategy to diversify its product offerings and tap into established manufacturing capabilities in China [20][24]. - The company aims to create a lifestyle brand similar to luxury brands that have successfully expanded into various product categories, leveraging its existing IPs to enhance consumer engagement [18][27]. - The potential for Pop Mart to become a significant player in the jewelry and home appliance markets is supported by the growing consumer interest in unique, story-driven products, which aligns with the company's brand identity [8][28].

Core Insights - 3D printing technology is revolutionizing the潮玩 (trendy toy) industry, serving as a crucial tool for innovation, business iteration, and value addition [1][5] - The潮玩 market is experiencing a "golden age," driven by the demand from the Z generation, while traditional manufacturing methods face limitations [1][5] Group 1: 3D Printing Advantages - 3D printing allows for rapid prototyping, significantly reducing the time from design to physical model, enabling designers to quickly iterate and optimize products [7][10] - It addresses the challenges of traditional manufacturing, such as long lead times for new molds, high costs for small batch production, and limitations in complex designs [8][12] - The technology supports personalized and unique潮玩 production without the need for expensive molds, catering to consumer desires for individuality [10][12] Group 2: Market Impact and Case Studies - The case of the "Dinosaur Egg" series illustrates how 3D printing can enable rapid market response and scalability, challenging the notion that 3D printing is only suitable for prototyping [18][19] - The production capacity for the "Dinosaur Egg" reached approximately 30,000 units per day, with 70% of products exported to international markets, showcasing the commercial viability of 3D printing [21][22] Group 3: Future Innovations - The integration of 3D printing with other advanced technologies like AI, AR, and VR is expected to unlock exponential innovation possibilities in the潮玩 industry [24][28] - New materials and upgraded printing processes are emerging, enhancing the capabilities of 3D printing in terms of precision, speed, and functionality [22][24] - Future潮玩 may incorporate interactive features and sensory experiences, transforming them into personalized companions for users [25][26][28]

Core Insights - The article discusses the emergence of a new player in the trendy toy market, specifically the launch of the "DearNikki" brand by Paper Games, which has quickly gained traction in the market [1][2] - The "谷子经济" (Guzi Economy) is projected to experience significant growth, with the market size expected to reach 1.689 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 40% [2] - The emotional connection and engagement of female gamers with their favorite IPs are highlighted as key drivers for the success of trendy toys, particularly in the context of the "DearNikki" brand [10][15] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The "叠纸心意" flagship store topped the "618天猫潮玩抢先成交榜" (618 Tmall Trendy Toy Pre-sale Ranking) ahead of established brands like Pop Mart and miHoYo [1] - The "DearNikki" brand launched on June 1, with over 70,000 blind boxes sold, generating a transaction volume exceeding 5.53 million yuan [1] Brand Strategy - "DearNikki" focuses on female consumers, leveraging the emotional resonance of the "暖暖" IP, which allows for a unique approach to trendy toys by emphasizing emotional connection over traditional design aesthetics [3][6] - The brand's strategy includes a diverse range of products, with plans to expand into various categories such as model toys, anime merchandise, and tabletop games [3] Consumer Engagement - The emotional investment of players in the "暖暖" character creates a strong community, enhancing the appeal of the blind boxes as a means of emotional connection [6][10] - The success of the "DearNikki" blind boxes indicates a robust market for female-oriented trendy toys, with significant purchasing power demonstrated during the 618 sales event [8][10] Industry Trends - The article notes a shift towards self-owned IP models in the trendy toy market, which allows for deeper emotional connections and brand loyalty compared to traditional licensing models [15] - The potential for the trendy toy sector to become a secondary revenue stream for female-oriented mobile games is discussed, with the "谷子经济" serving as a catalyst for this growth [7][15]