投资建议：考虑到 GB 系列产品与网络连接出货积极，Rubin 将于 26H2 启动量产，同时下游 AI 需求持续旺盛，我们上调收入预期，预计 2026-2028 财年 公 司收 入为 2130/3335/4279 亿美 元，上 调幅度 为 4%/23%/40%。预计 2026-2028 财年公司净利润为 1141/1876/2352 亿美 元，上调幅度为 11%/28%/40%，维持"优于大市"评级。 风险提示：下游 AI 应用发展与 ROI 低于预期；Blackwell 供应链风险；AI 芯片竞争加剧；宏观与地缘风险。 证券研究报告 | 2025年11月24日 英伟达(NVIDIA)（NVDA.O） 需求保持高景气度，Rubin 将于 26H2 启动量产 优于大市 财务表现：需求保持高景气度，FY26Q4 指引强劲。①整体：英伟达三季 度（均指财季，下同）收入 570.06 亿美元（同比+62%，环比+22%）， 高于公司此前540（±2%）亿美元指引。GAAP毛利率73.4%（同比-1.2pcts， 环比+1pcts）。营业利润同比+65%至 360 亿美元，GAAP 净利润同比+65% 至 319 亿 ...

Group 1: Nvidia's Strategic Moves - Nvidia's investment of $100 billion in OpenAI is designed to secure long-term orders from its largest customer, while OpenAI gains essential funding and technical support for next-generation AI infrastructure [3][5] - The partnership allows for joint optimization of hardware and software roadmaps, creating a significant technological barrier against competitors [5] - Nvidia's upcoming Vera Rubin platform is expected to provide 8 exaFLOPS of AI computing power, significantly enhancing OpenAI's model evolution when deployed in late 2026 [5][6] Group 2: Oracle's Emergence in AI Infrastructure - Oracle's $300 billion cloud services contract with OpenAI positions it as a key player in AI infrastructure, with remaining performance obligations (RPO) surging to $455 billion [7][9] - The shift in OpenAI's exclusive partnership with Microsoft opened opportunities for Oracle, which offers a full-stack service from data center construction to cloud platform operation [7] - Oracle's involvement in the "Stargate" project, despite challenges, aims to establish critical data centers that will enhance OpenAI's computational network [9] Group 3: OpenAI's Strategic Positioning - OpenAI's strategy focuses on balancing AI research, product development, and infrastructure challenges, ensuring sufficient support while maintaining technological autonomy [10][12] - The multi-vendor strategy allows OpenAI to secure chip supply from Nvidia, cloud infrastructure from Oracle, and maintain flexibility with Microsoft, enhancing its negotiating power [12] - OpenAI's commitment to AGI control and its unique governance structure aim to ensure that decisions benefit humanity while attracting significant investments [12][13] Group 4: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The global AI infrastructure spending is projected to reach $3-4 trillion by the end of the decade, presenting both opportunities and challenges related to energy supply and geopolitical factors [14][16] - Energy consumption is a critical bottleneck, with data centers expected to consume 945 terawatt-hours by 2030, prompting a shift towards renewable energy sources [16] - Geopolitical dynamics are influencing infrastructure strategies, with the U.S. aiming to maintain its dominance in AI chips and data centers, leading to increased competition for technological sovereignty [17] Group 5: Future Implications of AI Infrastructure - The ongoing competition among Nvidia, Oracle, and OpenAI is reshaping the foundational aspects of future civilization, with control over AI infrastructure becoming a key determinant of economic power [18][19] - The need for sustainable development models is emphasized as energy demands rise, and the concentration of computational resources among a few tech giants raises concerns about equity and accessibility [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia and OpenAI have announced a strategic partnership and a significant investment of up to $100 billion to support OpenAI's AI data center plans [2]. Group 1: Investment Details - The investment will be paid to OpenAI gradually as the deployment of GPUs increases [4]. - This investment represents approximately 2.2% of Nvidia's current market capitalization of about $4.46 trillion [5]. Group 2: Infrastructure and Energy Consumption - OpenAI plans to utilize millions of Nvidia GPU systems to deploy AI data centers, with an energy consumption target of at least 10 gigawatts [7]. - The first phase of the data center will have an energy consumption of 1 gigawatt and is expected to be deployed in the second half of 2026 [9]. Group 3: Strategic Partnership - OpenAI will be the first "beta user" of Nvidia's DGX supercomputer system, highlighting a decade-long collaboration between the two companies [10]. - OpenAI will receive priority in GPU delivery, while Nvidia will benefit from OpenAI's highest priority in external collaborations [11]. - OpenAI will become the preferred "computing" and "network" strategic partner in Nvidia's AI factory growth plan, ensuring optimal performance for OpenAI's models and infrastructure software [12]. - Both companies plan to finalize the specific details of their strategic partnership in the coming weeks [13].

Core Insights - OpenAI plans to build and deploy a 10 GW Nvidia system, equivalent to approximately 4 to 5 million GPUs, matching Nvidia's total shipments for the year and doubling last year's output [3][5][12] - Nvidia and OpenAI announced a strategic partnership with an investment of up to $100 billion to support OpenAI's AI data center plans [5][12] Investment and Financials - The partnership will be implemented in phases, starting with a 1 GW data center to be deployed in the second half of 2026, with an initial investment of $10 billion from Nvidia upon completion of the first system [7][14] - Building a 1 GW data center is estimated to cost between $50 billion and $60 billion, with about $35 billion allocated for Nvidia's chips and systems, indicating a significant share for Nvidia in OpenAI's infrastructure [14][17] - OpenAI's revenue is projected to reach $13 billion this year, a more than threefold increase from $4 billion last year, with a revised forecast for 2030 revenue exceeding $200 billion [17][18] Market Position and Competition - The collaboration secures Nvidia a strategic customer in OpenAI, enhancing its position in the AI chip market amid competition from AMD and cloud service providers [14][18] - OpenAI's R&D costs are expected to account for nearly 50% of its total revenue by 2030, significantly higher than the 10% to 20% range typical for other tech giants [17][18] Future Outlook - The partnership aims to accelerate the development of OpenAI's next-generation AI infrastructure, with expectations for significant outcomes in the coming months [12][18] - The AI infrastructure arms race has entered a new phase with investments reaching the billion-dollar mark, indicating a growing demand for computational resources [18]