Crybaby特展上海站将于2025年12月20日至2026年1月25日在上海西岸梦中心梦工场举行。展览门票分为 普通票和VIP票，价格分别为109元和258元。此次特展不仅有适合打卡分享的大型装置艺术，还设有需 线上抢购后到店取限量商品和限量周边，有望吸引多样化的人群参展并分享。不仅拓展了泡泡玛特除商 品销售以外的变现手段（展览门票收入），更有望通过参展人员在社交媒体平台的自发打卡分享实现信 息传播裂变，保持品牌的"在场感"的同时增加信息"触点"，通过成熟且多样化的运营手段延长IP生命周 期、提高IP高度。 国金证券主要观点如下： 小米集团：AI迈向物理世界构筑终极护城河，AI+人车家全生态价值重构 MiMo-V2-Flash开启小米AGI蓝图，性能与成本综合质价比领先。12月17日小米人车家全生态合作伙伴 大会顺利举办，MiMo团队负责人罗福莉完成了首秀演讲，发布MiMo-V2-Flash打模型，实现：（1）推 理成本与速度的极致优化；（2）面向高效推理的结构创新；（3）全新的后训练范式提升模型推理与 Agent能力。MiMo模型提供AI生态入口，同时小米作为全球唯一构筑人车架全场景闭环的硬核科技公 司， ...

2025年12月17日，小米"人车家全生态"合作伙伴大会在北京国家会议中心成功举办。大会期间，除了主 论坛分享外，小米IoT平台还设立了三个分论坛，分别是IoT未来峰会 2026、IoT生态接入与体验创新以 及IoT平台技术论坛，全面展示了面向开发者的最新能力和用户体验创新。 在主论坛，小米核心系统部总经理牛坤公布了小米人车家全生态互联体验的最新进展。截至三季度，小 米 IoT 平台的连接设备，首次跨越 10 亿的里程碑，达到10.4亿台。米家App月活用户突破1.1亿，小米 IoT模组的年出货量，首次突破 1 亿片。这些核心数据都标志着小米IoT平台稳居全球最重要的智能生态 平台之列。 生态的繁荣也吸引了更多伙伴加入，目前已与全球超过15000家企业合作，并迎来了美诺、博世西门 子、LG等国际知名品牌。在创造商业价值的同时，小米积极践行社会责任，与相关部门合作，为障碍 人士家庭进行智能化家居改造；同时，通过与全国350多所院校的产教融合，计划未来5年为物联网行业 培养超50000名高质量人才。 在大会现场，小米还介绍了智能家居未来探索方案——Xiaomi Miloco。它基于端侧部署的MiMo-VL- Mi ...

小米专为物联网领域定制的轻量化操作系统Xiaomi Vela，开源版本openvela此前已在GitHub、Gitee、 GitCode三大平台开源，目前openvela全球合作伙伴已突破100家，深度赋能1500个种类产品，搭载 Xiaomi Vela系统设备数已超过1.6亿台。 除了手机和IoT业务以外，小米汽车交付迈入规模化新阶段。截至本月小米汽车累计交付量已突破50万 台，2025年交付量已超35万台。 小米汽车CarIoT此前已向汽车行业全面开放，为汽车厂商和硬件制造伙伴提供统一的生态硬件接口、车 载生态件产品，提供米家上车与车家互联能力。据大会最新披露，目前CarIoT已开放品类超过30种，并 与比亚迪（002594）、广汽丰田等4家车企达成深度合作。 12月17日，在2025小米"人车家全生态"合作伙伴大会上，小米集团合伙人、总裁卢伟冰披露，小米全球 月活跃用户数达到7.42亿；硬件生态方面，小米AIoT平台连接设备数达到10.4亿，硬件合作伙伴数量突 破15000家；软件生态方面，小米全球开发者规模达到120万，国内应用生态每月应用分发量突破11亿。 目前，小米软件开发者数量已达到120万，小 ...

Core Insights - Xiaomi Group's strategy has officially upgraded to a "Human-Vehicle-Home Ecosystem," aiming to create a complete closed loop with the upcoming launch of Xiaomi cars in 2024, positioning itself as a leader in the global technology ecosystem [1][2] User and Hardware Ecosystem - Xiaomi's global monthly active users have reached 742 million, while the AIoT platform has connected over 1.04 billion devices, with more than 15,000 hardware partners [1] - The domestic application ecosystem sees a monthly app distribution volume exceeding 1.1 billion [1] Automotive Development - Xiaomi's automotive deliveries have entered a new phase, with cumulative deliveries surpassing 500,000 units, and over 350,000 units delivered in 2025 alone [1][2] - The CarIoT platform has opened over 30 product categories and established deep collaborations with four automotive manufacturers, including BYD and GAC Toyota [2] AI and R&D Investments - Since April, Xiaomi has launched several AI models and opened them to global developers, including the Xiaomi MiMo language and multimodal models [2] - Xiaomi MiMo-V2-Flash, a self-developed hybrid expert language model, has been announced as open-source, ranking among the top two global open-source models in multiple benchmarks [2] - The company plans to invest 200 billion yuan in R&D over the next five years, with an expected investment of 32-33 billion yuan in 2023 and around 40 billion yuan in 2026, focusing on core technologies such as chips, operating systems, and AI [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, Xiaomi achieved a record high profit with total revenue of 113.12 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 22.3% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 2.4%. Adjusted net profit reached 11.31 billion yuan, up 80.9% year-over-year and 4.4% quarter-over-quarter. The gross margin improved to 22.9%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-over-year and 0.4 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [2][4]. - The smart electric vehicle (EV) business reported its first quarterly profit, generating an operating income of 700 million yuan. In Q3 2025, the company delivered 109,000 new vehicles, with automotive revenue reaching 28.3 billion yuan and a gross margin of 25.5% [2][3]. - The smartphone and AIoT business remained stable, with smartphone revenue of 46 billion yuan and a global shipment of 43.3 million units, maintaining a market share of 13.6%. The newly launched Xiaomi 17 series saw a sales increase of approximately 30% in its first month [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 total revenue was 113.12 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit at 11.31 billion yuan. The gross margin was 22.9% [2][4]. - The company expects net profit for 2025-2027 to be 43 billion, 51.4 billion, and 62.3 billion yuan respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 82%, 19%, and 21% [4][5]. Business Segments - The smartphone segment generated 46 billion yuan in revenue, while the IoT and lifestyle products segment brought in 27.6 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 23.9% [3][4]. - The smart EV segment achieved a revenue of 28.3 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 25.5% [2][3]. Research and Development - R&D expenses reached 9.1 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 52.1%. The company continues to invest heavily in core technologies to enhance its ecosystem [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [1] Core Views - The company achieved a record high adjusted net profit of 11.3 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 80.9% [8] - The automotive business delivered over 100,000 units in the quarter, marking the first operational profit in a single quarter [8] - The Xiaomi 17 series saw a significant increase in sales, with a 30% year-on-year growth compared to the previous generation [8] - The company is focusing on innovation, with R&D investment reaching 91 billion yuan in Q3 2025, and a total of 235 billion yuan for the first three quarters [8] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2025 reached 113.1 billion yuan, a 22.3% year-on-year increase [8] - The company forecasts earnings per share of 1.69, 1.76, and 2.38 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 473.24 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 29% [7] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 22.5% in 2025 [7] Market Position - Xiaomi's smartphone revenue in Q3 2025 was 46 billion yuan, with a shipment of 43.3 million units, marking a 0.5% year-on-year increase [8] - The market share for smartphones priced between 4000-6000 yuan reached 18.9%, an increase of 5.6 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company has expanded its automotive sales network, with 402 stores opened across 119 cities in mainland China by September 30, 2025 [8] Valuation - The target price for Xiaomi Group is set at 55.86 HKD, based on a 29x PE ratio for 2026 [6][9] - The current market capitalization of H shares is approximately 1,006.835 million HKD [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group is recommended as a strong buy due to its position as one of the top three global smartphone manufacturers and the largest AIoT smart hardware platform, with a favorable outlook in the AI-driven industrial restructuring process [1] Smartphone Business - In Q3 2025, Xiaomi's global smartphone shipments increased by 0.5% year-on-year to 43.3 million units, maintaining a market share of 13.6% globally and 16.7% domestically, ranking second [2] - The company has adjusted its total shipment target for 2025 to 170 million units, while facing ongoing cost pressures from rising storage prices [2] Automotive Business - Xiaomi achieved its first quarterly operating profit in Q3 2025, with revenue from smart electric vehicles and AI-related businesses reaching 29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 199% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36% [3] - The company delivered over 40,000 vehicles monthly in September and October, on track to meet its annual delivery target of 350,000 units [3] IoT and Internet Business - In Q3 2025, IoT business revenue reached 27.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, with significant growth in overseas markets [4] - The internet business achieved record revenue of 9.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, with a gross margin of 76.9% [4] - The number of global monthly active users reached 740 million, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year growth [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong and resilient growth in its Q3 2025 financial results, with total revenue reaching 113.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.3% and a net profit of 11.3 billion yuan, up 80.9% year-on-year, indicating robust performance across its business segments [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Q3 2025 total revenue was 113.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.4% [1]. - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 11.3 billion yuan, reflecting an 80.9% year-on-year increase and a 4.4% quarter-on-quarter increase [1]. - Gross margin improved to 22.9%, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year and 0.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. Group 2: Mobile Business - Q3 2025 mobile business revenue was 46 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.0% [2]. - The average selling price (ASP) slightly declined, with a gross margin of 11.1%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year and 0.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Global smartphone shipments reached 43.3 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, maintaining a market share of 13.6% [2]. Group 3: Automotive Business - The automotive segment achieved revenue of 29 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a significant year-on-year increase of 199% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36% [3]. - The segment recorded a gross margin of 25.5%, with a slight decrease of 0.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company achieved its first quarterly operating profit of 700 million yuan in this segment, indicating a positive trend for future profitability [3]. Group 4: IoT and Internet Business - Q3 2025 IoT business revenue was 27.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 28.8% [4]. - The gross margin for IoT was 23.9%, up 3.1 percentage points year-on-year and 1.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4]. - Internet business revenue reached a record high of 9.38 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.1% [4]. Group 5: Strategic Outlook - The company is focused on high-end product strategies and international expansion in its mobile business, while the IoT segment is expected to benefit from enhanced self-research capabilities and overseas market opportunities [5]. - The automotive business aims to enter the top five global automakers by 2025-2027, supported by a robust product matrix and ecosystem synergies [5].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The research highlights the significant generational differences in consumer behavior and production capabilities across Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia, with Thailand resembling a "miniature" version of the Western consumer market, Vietnam in a rapid growth phase, and Cambodia reflecting characteristics of less developed nations [1] - The report emphasizes the potential for investment in Southeast Asia, particularly in consumer goods and technology-driven sectors, as companies leverage local production capabilities and growing consumer markets [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Insights - Thailand is compared to a "miniature" Western market, showcasing a mature consumer culture and a well-developed service industry, making it a reference point for companies looking to expand into Western markets [1] - Vietnam is characterized as a rapidly developing economy, with a GDP projected to reach approximately 62.69 trillion VND (around 4,700 USD) in 2024, indicating a significant consumer market potential [1] - Cambodia is noted for its low average income and high income disparity, with consumer spending primarily focused on essential goods, suggesting a slower penetration of discretionary spending [1] 2. Segment Tracking - Xiaomi Group is exploring the future of smart home technology with its Xiaomi Miloco initiative, aiming to enhance user interaction and privacy through advanced AI models [9][10] - The pet food sector saw significant growth during the Double Eleven shopping festival, with sales for the brand Guibao exceeding 1 billion RMB, reflecting a trend towards premium pet products [11][12] - The AI and 3D printing industry is experiencing high demand, with companies like Tuozhu achieving record sales during major shopping events, indicating strong market potential [21][22] 3. Macro Consumption Data - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, with service sector prices rising, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [35] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, but showed signs of improvement in the month-on-month trend, suggesting a potential stabilization in production costs [45] - Online sales data from major platforms indicated a decline in the home appliance sector, with specific brands like Ecovacs and Roborock showing positive growth despite overall market challenges [50]

Core Viewpoint - Guosheng Securities has set a target price of HKD 52 for Xiaomi Group-W (01810) and reiterated a "Buy" rating, citing strong Q3 performance with a 22.3% year-on-year revenue growth to CNY 113.1 billion and a record adjusted net profit of CNY 11.3 billion, up 80.9% year-on-year, driven by the high-end smartphone strategy and automotive business [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Xiaomi Group achieved revenue of CNY 113.1 billion, a 22.3% increase year-on-year. Revenue breakdown includes approximately CNY 46 billion from smartphones, CNY 27.6 billion from IoT, CNY 9.4 billion from internet services, and CNY 29 billion from automotive and AI businesses. The adjusted net profit reached CNY 11.3 billion, marking a historical high with an 80.9% year-on-year growth [2]. Business Aspects - **Smartphones**: Xiaomi continues to push for high-end market penetration, with global smartphone shipments reaching 43.3 million units, a 0.5% year-on-year increase. The global market share stands at approximately 13.6%, ranking in the top three, while the domestic market share is about 16.7%, ranking second. High-end smartphone sales in mainland China accounted for 24.1% of total sales, with a market share of 18.9% in the CNY 4,000-6,000 price range. The Xiaomi 17 series, particularly the Pro and Pro Max models, accounted for over 80% of sales, indicating an optimized product structure [3]. - **IoT**: Xiaomi's AIoT platform has surpassed 1 billion connected devices, reflecting a 20.2% year-on-year growth. The company ranks among the top five in global tablet shipments, second in TWS earphones, and first in wearable wristband devices. Monthly active users for the Mi Home app and Xiao Ai exceeded 110 million and 150 million, respectively. The launch of a smart home appliance factory in October 2025 marks a significant step in closing the industry loop from design to production [3]. Automotive and AI Innovation - Xiaomi's automotive and AI innovation business achieved its first quarterly profit, with vehicle deliveries reaching approximately 109,000 units, a historical high. The Xiaomi YU7 series ranked first in the mainland SUV sales chart in October 2025, and the operating profit for this segment was around CNY 700 million [4]. Profit Forecast and Rating - Guosheng Securities anticipates that in the short term, Xiaomi's smartphone and automotive sectors may face challenges due to subsidy adjustments and rising raw material costs. However, Xiaomi's strong market position and high-end strategy provide a competitive edge. The long-term outlook remains positive due to the "full ecosystem" strategy. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are CNY 470 billion, CNY 557 billion, and CNY 694 billion, with non-GAAP net profits of approximately CNY 44 billion, CNY 50.1 billion, and CNY 65 billion, respectively. The target price of HKD 52 is based on a 20x P/E for the consumer electronics segment and a 2.5x P/S for the automotive and AI innovation business, reaffirming the "Buy" rating [5].