随着经济裂痕迹象显现，外界将持续关注后续贸易谈判进程，并评估美联储降息前景，短期技术指标恶 化或预示股指调整还将继续。 美联储压力有所升级 美联储上周按兵不动。近一周美国公布了大量经济数据，作为美联储最关注的物价指标，数据显示美国 关税上调的延迟效应开始渗透到经济中，6月个人消费支出指数PCE环比上涨0.3%，创自2月以来的最大 增幅。核心PCE则继续维持在2.8%，与美联储2%的目标距离不小。外界担忧，随着关税进一步推高进 口商品的价格，将造成价格压力在下半年加剧。 然而备受关注的就业数据让美联储降息的天平有所倾斜。7月份非农报告显示，美国新增就业人数7.3万 人，远低于10.4万人的预测。此前的两份数据被大幅向下修订， 6月份的就业增长从14.7万人降至1.4万 人，5月份从12.5万人降至1.9万人，这是自2020年5月以来最大的双月下修。 牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨（Bob Schwartz）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，令人惊讶的就 业报告将增加美联储尽早降息的压力。如果不是因为卫生和社会服务部门持续强劲，非农在过去三个月 将出现下降，这两个行业对周期性因素并不十分敏感，主要反映了人口老龄化的 ...

8月1日，美团、淘宝联合饿了么、京东先后发文，称外卖平台补贴引发社会高度关注，将抵制不正当竞 争。 三外卖平台同时发文抵制不正当竞争 8月1日，美团、淘宝联合饿了么、京东先后发文，称外卖平台补贴引发社会高度关注，将抵制不正当竞 争。 去年年底以来，京东加快了出海脚步。去年12月，京东在日本投入的自营仓正式运营。2025年3月初， 京东物流在波兰开设第三座仓库。 家庭服务机器人布局急行军 多家平台在声明中直指"0元购"补贴，并表态不强制或变相强制商家参加补贴活动，保障商家自主定价 权，以及保障骑手权益。 在提升行业健康发展上，美团提出要降低商户经营成本，从"比价格"回归"比品质""比服务"，促进外卖 和堂食平衡发展，构建理性可持续的商业环境。饿了么表示将持续提供多元化的消费场景，更丰富的品 类，将不断升级配送体系的网络效率。京东则提出要坚守食品安全底线，坚守诚信经营底线，持续打造 品质消费体验。 点评：从长期看，盈利压力与资本效率对平台而言是长期挑战：持续补贴侵蚀利润，竞争格局正从"资 金战"转向"效率战"。真正的赢家需平衡用户低价需求、骑手权益保障与商家可持续盈利，而非单纯依 赖价格战。补贴是平台争夺市场入口 ...

特朗普能否达成更多贸易协定。 美股尾盘跳水，道指周跌2.92%，纳指周跌2.17%，标普500指数周跌2.36%，欧洲三大股指下挫，英国富时100指数周跌0.57%，德国DAX 30指数周跌 3.27%，法国CAC 40指数周跌3.68%。 本周看点颇多，美国ISM服务业调查将受到密切关注，因为投资者将继续权衡未来几周美联储降息的可能性，特别是在7月份美国就业数据远低于预期之 后。 关税大部分将于8月7日生效，有关关税协议的进一步消息也成为焦点。央行方面，英国央行料重启降息，日本央行会议纪要将展示关税对经济影响的评 估。 上周国际市场风云变幻，美国总统特朗普在8月1日关税谈判到期日公布一系列所谓"对等关税"决定，美联储按兵不动。 美国服务业能否保持韧性 美联储上周按兵不动，美联储主席鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上表示，今年上半年经济增长有所放缓，但美联储完全有能力应对潜在的发展。谈及关税的影 响，"更高的关税已经开始体现在一些商品的价格上，但对经济活动和通货膨胀的总体影响还有待观察。" 然而随后公布的7月就业数据削弱了此前对美国经济的乐观情绪，并重新点燃了美联储可能在9月降息的前景。投资者将密切关注关税和政策不确定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The restoration of value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds is expected to generate over 30 billion yuan in revenue this year [1][4]. Tax Policy Changes - Starting from August 8, 2025, VAT will be reinstated on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds, reversing the previous exemption policy [2][3]. - Individuals purchasing these bonds will be exempt from VAT on interest income if their monthly sales do not exceed 100,000 yuan, applicable until December 31, 2027 [1][2]. Financial Impact - The reinstatement of VAT is projected to increase tax revenue by approximately 315.5 billion yuan, with commercial banks expected to bear the largest tax burden, estimated at 232.7 billion yuan [4]. - Future tax revenue is expected to grow significantly, with estimates of 321 billion yuan in 2025, 648 billion yuan in 2026, and 988 billion yuan in 2027 as the taxable bond market expands [5]. Market Reactions - Analysts suggest that the tax increase will reduce the yield for bond investors, potentially leading to a decrease in demand for government and local bonds [3]. - The impact on bond market trends is considered to be limited, as the tax change is viewed as a one-time event, with any cost increases likely to be shared between issuers and investors [3].

据新华社，8月3日，随着一列满载55个集装箱的中欧班列，经二连浩特铁路口岸驶出，标志着中欧班列 中通道自2013年通行首列中欧班列以来，累计通行量突破20000列。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

Core Insights - Another low-cost airline, Jetstar Asia, has ceased operations due to rising supplier costs, increased airport fees, and intensified competition in the region, leading to an expected loss of AUD 35 million in EBITDA for the current fiscal year [1] - The performance of low-cost airlines varies significantly between regions, with U.S. low-cost carriers struggling post-pandemic while some Chinese low-cost airlines are thriving [2][3] Group 1: Airline Performance - Jetstar Asia, established in 2004, primarily operated short-haul flights from Singapore, including routes to cities in China [1] - Other low-cost airlines, such as Spirit Airlines and Canada Jetlines, have also faced operational shutdowns, indicating a broader trend in the industry [1] - Southwest Airlines, a pioneer in low-cost travel, reported a 3% revenue decline in Q2 2023, contrasting with the strong performance of full-service airlines like Delta, which achieved a record revenue of USD 15.6 billion [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recovery of business travel in the U.S. has favored full-service airlines, while low-cost carriers, which primarily serve leisure travelers, have seen slower recovery [2] - Southwest Airlines is adapting by introducing premium seating options and upgrading cabin services to attract cost-conscious travelers seeking better service [2] - In China, Spring Airlines, modeled after Southwest, has become the most profitable airline, while state-owned carriers have struggled to return to profitability [2][3] Group 3: Strategic Changes - The domestic market in China is experiencing a phase of capacity oversupply and changing passenger demographics, impacting revenue for airlines [3] - Spring Airlines has differentiated itself by offering "business economy seats" with increased legroom and additional services, similar to changes made by Southwest Airlines [3] - Airlines are increasingly focusing on diversifying their service offerings to meet the varied demands of different customer segments while controlling costs [4]

Group 1: DeepSeek and ACL Conference - DeepSeek, in collaboration with Peking University, won the Best Paper Award at the 63rd ACL conference, highlighting a significant achievement in natural language processing with the introduction of the Native Sparse Attention (NSA) mechanism [1][2] - The ACL conference saw a record submission of over 8000 papers, with a main conference acceptance rate of 20.3% and a Findings acceptance rate of 16.7% [1] Group 2: Anthropic's Market Position - Anthropic has surpassed OpenAI in popularity among enterprises, capturing 32% of the large language model market, while OpenAI's share has decreased to 25% [3][4] - Two years ago, OpenAI held a dominant 50% market share, with Anthropic at only 12%, indicating a significant shift in the competitive landscape [3] Group 3: AI Model Developments - The AI startup Step 3 has released an open-source foundational model with 321 billion parameters, showcasing advanced capabilities in visual perception and complex reasoning [5] - Multiple companies, including Tencent and Moonlight, have also released open-source models, indicating a trend towards open-source solutions in the AI industry [5] Group 4: Baidu's AI Integration - Baidu is testing an AI application entry point on its search homepage, allowing users to access various AI applications directly [6][7] - This move follows a major redesign of Baidu's search platform and reflects the company's commitment to integrating AI into its services [6] Group 5: Robotics Industry Insights - Tencent's chief scientist, Zhang Zhengyou, stated that the embodied intelligence industry is still in its early stages, comparing it to the mobile phone industry's evolution [8] - He emphasized that current humanoid robots are primarily used for data collection and research, and a significant breakthrough is needed for widespread adoption [8] Group 6: Supernode Solutions - Several companies showcased supernode solutions at the WAIC, addressing the challenges of large-scale computing clusters [9] - Supernodes aim to enhance performance by integrating computing chip resources, which is increasingly necessary as model parameters grow larger [9] Group 7: Financial Performance of Major Tech Companies - Meta reported a 22% year-over-year revenue increase in Q2, reaching $47.5 billion, with a net profit of $18.3 billion, up 36% [10] - Microsoft achieved a revenue of $76.4 billion in Q4, an 18% increase, with its market capitalization reaching $4 trillion, driven by demand for AI services [11]

Group 1 - July CPI and PPI data will be released on August 9, with expectations of a 0% month-on-month change and a year-on-year decrease of approximately -0.5% for CPI, while PPI is expected to show a rebound both year-on-year and month-on-month [2] - New interest tax policy for government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will take effect from August 8, 2025, reinstating VAT on interest income from newly issued bonds [3] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will implement a reduction in the minimum price fluctuation for stocks starting August 4, which aims to lower trading costs and enhance trading efficiency [4] Group 2 - The 2025 World Robot Conference will be held from August 8 to 12 in Beijing, focusing on themes of intelligence in robotics and featuring various events including forums and competitions [5] - A total of 32 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked from August 4 to August 8, with a total of 3.363 billion shares worth approximately 93.445 billion yuan being released [7] - The peak unlocking date is August 8, with three companies releasing shares worth a total of 54.464 billion yuan, accounting for 58.28% of the total unlocking scale for the week [7]

7月CPI、PPI数据将公布；新发国债等债券利息将交增值税；港股市场下调最低上落价位的第一阶段将生 效；2025世界机器人大会将举行。 7月28日，香港交易所宣布，香港证券市场下调最低上落价位的第一阶段将于下周一（8月4日）生效。所谓 最低上落价位是每只股票的最小价格变动单位，这项措施将有助于降低市场的交易成本并提升交易效率。 【重磅新闻】 其中，10港元—20港元区间的证券买卖最低上落价位从0.02港元调整为0.01港元，20港元—50港元区间的最 低上落价位从0.05港元调整为0.02港元，适用于股票、房地产投资信托基金（REIT）、股本权证等。 7月CPI、PPI数据将公布 2025世界机器人大会将举行 8月9日，国家统计局将公布7月CPI、PPI数据。 开源证券指出，CPI方面，结合农产品批发价格指数等高频数据，预计7月CPI环比在0%左右，同比或 在-0.5%左右。PPI方面，结合CRB现货指数等高频数据，预计7月PPI同比、环比均有回升。 新发国债等债券利息将交增值税 近日，财政部、税务总局就国债、地方政府债券、金融债券利息收入增值税政策有关事项发布公告称，自 2025年8月8日起，对在该日期之后 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong High Court has issued a property preservation order regarding the family trust case of Wahaha founder Zong Qinghou, freezing assets in Jian Hao Ventures Limited's HSBC account, but the substantive issues remain unresolved [1][8] Group 1: Trust Establishment and Legal Proceedings - Zong Qinghou intended to establish three offshore family trusts for his three children, with each trust having an initial capital of $700 million, but the trusts have not been formally established yet [2][3] - The trust establishment process involves multiple documents, including handwritten instructions and a delegation letter from Zong Qinghou to his daughter Zong Fuli, indicating his intent for the trusts [2][3] - The ongoing legal dispute highlights uncertainties regarding the recognition of the trust under Hong Kong or mainland Chinese law, and the validity of the delegation letter and its potential conflicts with Zong Qinghou's will [1][4][11] Group 2: Disputes and Communication Breakdown - Zong Fuli claims that the delay in establishing the trusts is due to unresolved disagreements with her siblings regarding the trust's terms, particularly the scope of trust assets [5][6] - The three children allege that Zong Fuli has not established the trusts and has transferred at least $1.08512 million from the HSBC account for unspecified purposes [4][5] - Zong Fuli asserts that the trust assets are limited to interest income, not the principal, and disputes the claim that the HSBC account ever held $2.1 billion, stating it was valued at $1.8 billion as of May 31, 2024 [5][6] Group 3: Legal Implications and Future Considerations - The case is expected to draw significant attention due to its complexity and the lack of similar cross-border precedents, with the Hangzhou court's ruling being crucial [8][9] - Legal experts suggest that if the Hangzhou court recognizes the existence of a constructive trust, it could shift the focus from whether a trust agreement was signed to whether the trustee fulfilled their obligations [10][11] - The outcome may set a precedent for cross-jurisdictional trust enforcement, particularly if the three children are recognized as beneficiaries of the assets in the HSBC account [13]