盘后，亚马逊跌幅扩大至10%，其公布的最新财报显示，第四财季净利润211.9亿美元，同比增长6% 芯片股涨跌互现，ARM涨超5%，应用材料涨逾2%，科天半导体涨超1%，拉姆研究涨逾1%。高通跌超8%，西部数据、超威半导体跌逾3%。消息面上， 芯片巨头高通、Arm齐发预警，芯片将挤压智能手机产能。 热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.9%。蔚来涨超6%领跑，盘前其公告称，预计首次录得单季度经调整经营利润；百胜中国、文远知 行、唯品会涨超3%，小米、理想、美团涨超2%。 下跌方面，中概新能源股表现不佳，亿鹏能源跌超18%，阿特斯太阳能跌超8%；叮咚买菜跌超14%，盘前消息，美团拟7.17亿美元收购叮咚；霸王茶姬跌 超5%，阿里巴巴、新东方跌1%。 美东时间周四，美股三大指数集体跌超1%，道指跌近600点，纳指跌超360点，科技股普跌，中概股逆势飘红；国际金银价格刷新日低，现货白银重挫近 20%；国际油价集体飘绿，比特币跌至6.4万美元。 | 道琼斯工业 | 纳斯达克指数 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 48908.72 | 22540.59 | 6798.40 | | ...

Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments have jointly issued the "2026 'Buy New Year' Special Activity Plan" to boost consumption during the upcoming Spring Festival, focusing on the entire consumption chain including food, accommodation, transportation, tourism, shopping, and entertainment [1][18] - The plan encourages local governments to increase subsidies for trade-in programs during the Spring Festival and enhance support for offline retail, while also promoting exhibitions of automobiles, home appliances, and smart products [1][18] Consumption Trends - In Shenzhen, the policy is translating into vibrant consumption scenes, with tech products becoming popular among consumers [2][19] - The Huaqiangbei Electronics World is bustling with shoppers primarily looking for tech gifts, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards cultural and spiritual enjoyment rather than traditional shopping [3][21] - The rapid adoption of digital technology is fostering a consumer habit of linking online experiences with offline purchases, solidifying the foundation for tech-themed consumption activities [3][21] Sales Performance - Huaqiangbei is hosting the "New Year Consumption Season" event, featuring a variety of products including smart toys and digital appliances, which has significantly increased foot traffic and sales [6][24] - Daily foot traffic in Huaqiangbei remains around 750,000, with a 10%-15% increase in traffic due to promotional activities, and sales of tech products have surged by approximately 30% compared to normal days [9][26] Broader Economic Impact - The consumption boom is positively affecting surrounding industries, with restaurant and service sectors seeing an 8% increase in revenue [10][27] - Shenzhen's local brands, such as Huawei and DJI, are performing well globally, enhancing the city's appeal as a consumer destination [10][28] Upcoming Events and Initiatives - Shenzhen plans to focus on international consumption, AI consumption, and various cultural events throughout 2026 to enhance its consumption landscape [11][28] - The city will also host an AI toy-themed consumption event featuring over 200 new products, integrating display, experience, and consumption [12][29] Cultural Activities - Traditional activities like flower markets are being upgraded to attract both local and external consumers, with significant online interest noted for flower market stalls [14][30] - Non-heritage activities are gaining popularity, with various malls launching events that showcase traditional crafts and foods, enhancing the festive atmosphere [15][31] Cross-Regional Collaboration - The "Deep Zhong City, Good Goods Sharing" event will facilitate cross-regional consumption, allowing consumers in Shenzhen to purchase goods from Zhongshan, thereby deepening industrial and consumption connectivity [16][32] Strategic Recommendations - To maintain consumer interest, Shenzhen should leverage its unique blend of technology and tradition, continuously innovating in event content and formats to avoid consumer fatigue [17][33]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant volatility, with international gold prices reaching a historical high before a sharp decline and subsequent rebound, leading to a substantial reduction in the scale of domestic gold-themed ETFs [1][11]. ETF Market Impact - Domestic gold-themed ETFs saw a total reduction of approximately 427 billion yuan over the week, bringing the total scale down to 3,489.54 billion yuan [4][15]. - Approximately 1.89% of gold-themed ETF funds opted for redemption, resulting in a net outflow of about 66 billion yuan, primarily due to a decline in net asset value [1][5]. - The scale reduction was largely attributed to passive shrinkage from declining net values, amounting to around 361 billion yuan [1][5]. Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - Analysts noted that there was no panic selling among domestic investors; rather, the adjustments were seen as short-term emotional responses [1][5]. - On January 30, despite a significant drop in gold prices, there was still a net subscription of 23.38 billion yuan in some ETFs, indicating attempts by investors to "buy the dip" [5][16]. - The outflows were primarily driven by short-term speculative funds, stable short-term allocation funds, and passive following funds, with the latter showing a tendency to react to market movements [6][17]. Long-term Investment Logic - The long-term investment logic for gold remains intact, supported by three core factors: the unchanged Fed's interest rate cycle, ongoing global central bank gold purchases, and gold's role as a hedge against international order risks and sovereign credit currency risks [8][20]. - Institutions generally agree that the recent price fluctuations are a technical adjustment rather than a reversal of long-term trends, with concerns about rapid price increases being a significant factor [7][19]. Future Market Outlook - Institutions have differing views on future gold prices, with UBS predicting a target price of 7,200 USD/oz in a bullish scenario and 4,600 USD/oz in a bearish scenario [9][21]. - Analysts suggest that gold should be viewed as part of a diversified asset portfolio rather than a single heavy investment, emphasizing the importance of long-term perspectives in investment strategies [10][22].

就在两年前，华尔街还在担忧ChatGPT的横空出世将瓦解谷歌的搜索护城河，甚至有人预言这家互联网 科技巨头将面临"柯达时刻"。然而，随着其2025财年第四季度及全年财务报告发布，扎实的业绩数据已 然回应了此前市场的种种疑虑。 年报显示，公司全年营收达到4028.4亿美元，同比增长15%。净利润达到1321.7亿美元，同比增长 32%，利润率不降反升，这在科技巨头大规模投资AI的阶段显得格外突出。 第四季度营收为1138.3亿美元，同比增长18%，净利润344.6亿美元，同比增长29.8%，超出市场预期。 首席执行官桑达尔·皮查伊（Sundar Pichai）在财报电话会中将其称为"表现极为出色的一个季度"。 增长的核心驱动力来自谷歌云业务。第四季度，谷歌云营收达到176.64亿美元，同比增长48%，超出分 析师预期9%以上。这一增长远高于云计算行业平均增速，也明显快于竞争对手微软Azure同期表现。 2025年对谷歌而言是一个标志性年份。 美东时间2月4日盘后，谷歌母公司Alphabet发布2025年财报，全年营收达到4028.4亿美元，首次站上四 千亿美元关口。在激烈的AI竞赛中，这家硅谷巨头依然掌握着主动 ...

2026年伊始，全球经济正回归长期潜在增长轨道，信贷逐步修复，市场信心边际回升。瑞银全球经济和策略研究主管卡普顿（Arend Kapteyn）在接受南方财经记者专访时表示，在利差收窄、汇率波动有限且市场流动性充足的背景下，股票仍是最具优势的资产类别，美 股今年预计可涨约10%，欧洲与日本市场也有望录得约8%的涨幅。 他对中国经济保持乐观：新兴经济部门已贡献约四分之一的增长，是推动整体经济的重要动力。他建议投资者在新兴市场中重点关注中国 与巴西，这不仅可获取AI相关敞口，也兼顾估值与盈利增长优势。 卡普顿。资料图 中国在全球新经济领域领先 南方财经：我们把目光转向中国。怎么看中国经济前景？未来推动经济增长的主要动力会来自哪些方面？ 卡普顿：现在还处在年初阶段，我们的预测通常还会经历多次调整。 我们认为，新兴经济部门对整体经济增长的贡献，已经接近四分之一。从重要性来看，这些新经济领域的影响已超过房地产行业。然而， 这些变化并未充分反映在我们用于预测的整体数据中。因此，如果仅看先前的预测结果，增长似乎并不强劲；但结合我们实际观察到的经 济运行情况，我认为真实的经济表现要强劲得多。 你可以从不同角度去验证这些新兴经济 ...

李宇嘉（广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员） 今年1月，楼市并未出现春节前季节性转淡的走势，反而是"淡季不淡"甚至创出阶段性新高。克而瑞数 据显示，2026年1月全国重点13城二手房成交面积环比上升16%，同比增长33%，相比上年月均增长 18%。热点城市热度更明显，北京二手房网签连续三个月稳定在1.4万套以上，上海二手房交易创5年同 期新高，深圳二手房中介签约创下近10个月新高。 除了交易量反弹外，1月份的楼市还有几个特征，一是并未出现过去反弹时期交易和挂牌"双攀升"的走 势，而是"交易上升、挂牌下降"的健康态势。机构统计的京沪深二手住房挂牌量相比去年12月均有不同 程度的下降。二是二手住房价格下跌的势头得到缓解。中指百城数据显示，1月二手住宅均价环比下跌 0.85%，跌幅较上月收窄了0.12个百分点。 当然，1月份新房市场表现相对弱于二手房市场。主要原因在于，开发商冲刺全年业绩结束，性价比高 的热销房源供应下降、促销有所减弱。 根据各方机构和住建部门网签数据，将一手房和二手房加总来看，一线城市总的住房交易量同比2025年 1月份，增幅在8%-12%，二线热点城市也类似，呈现整体交易稳定的态势。1月份二手房交 ...

尽管消费市场总体平稳向好，但仍存在一些制约潜力释放的瓶颈问题。例如，部分地区消费环境透明度 不足、市场失信行为时有发生；同时，部分领域的商品与服务在品质、标准上存在不均，一些新业态、 新模式的发展也亟需完善监管。这些因素会在一定程度上影响消费者的信心与意愿，凸显了进一步优化 消费环境、打通堵点的重要性。 2月5日，国务院新闻办举行新闻发布会，介绍市场监管服务经济高质量发展有关情况。国家市场监督管 理总局相关负责人在会上强调，下一步将以放心消费集聚区建设为载体，出台放心消费标准、放心消费 主体培育等政策文件，培育一大批带动面广、显示度高的放心商圈、放心市场、放心景区，让消费者可 感可及。 营造放心消费的良好市场秩序，有利于畅通供需循环、释放消费潜力，对于稳定社会预期、增强经济内 生动力具有深远意义。当前，中国经济已经进入高质量发展新阶段，内需成为经济增长的主要拉动力。 2025年，我国社会消费品零售总额规模首次突破50万亿元，最终消费支出对经济增长的贡献率达到 52%，消费压舱石作用稳固。随着扩大服务消费的政策持续多点发力，服务供给更加优质多元，消费新 场景不断涌现，消费潜力得到加速释放。同时，网络消费持续向好 ...

卡普顿：现在还处在年初阶段，我们的预测通常还会经历多次调整。 2026年伊始，全球经济正回归长期潜在增长轨道，信贷逐步修复，市场信心边际回升。瑞银全球经济和 策略研究主管卡普顿（Arend Kapteyn）在接受南方财经记者专访时表示，在利差收窄、汇率波动有限 且市场流动性充足的背景下，股票仍是最具优势的资产类别，美股今年预计可涨约10%，欧洲与日本市 场也有望录得约8%的涨幅。 他对中国经济保持乐观：新兴经济部门已贡献约四分之一的增长，是推动整体经济的重要动力。他建议 投资者在新兴市场中重点关注中国与巴西，这不仅可获取AI相关敞口，也兼顾估值与盈利增长优势。 同时，他提醒，投资者仍需关注美国潜在的财政刺激、劳动力市场结构性风险以及整体不确定性，这些 因素可能成为全球市场的主要风险；相比之下，地缘政治因素虽然难以预测，但对金融市场的直接冲击 或相对有限。 中国在全球新经济领域领先 南方财经：我们把目光转向中国。怎么看中国经济前景？未来推动经济增长的主要动力会来自哪些方 面？ 我们认为，新兴经济部门对整体经济增长的贡献，已经接近四分之一。从重要性来看，这些新经济领域 的影响已超过房地产行业。然而，这些变化并未充 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global capital markets are experiencing significant turbulence due to fears that AI may disrupt the SaaS industry, leading to a sharp sell-off in SaaS stocks following the release of an AI tool by Anthropic [1][3]. Group 1: Market Impact - On February 3, the combined market value of two S&P indices tracking software, financial data, and exchange stocks dropped by approximately $300 billion [1]. - The Hong Kong SaaS index fell by 6.39% on February 4, resulting in a total market value loss of nearly HKD 150 billion [1]. - Major SaaS stocks in Hong Kong, such as Kingdee International and Kingsoft, saw declines of 12.64% and 5.14%, respectively [1]. Group 2: Broader Market Reactions - The sell-off in the software sector affected the entire Hang Seng Tech Index, which dropped by 1.84%, with notable declines in Tencent (3.96%), Alibaba (0.93%), and NetEase (3.32%) [2]. - The A-share SaaS index also fell by 2.61%, with companies like Sangfor Technologies and Yonyou Network experiencing significant losses [2]. - The U.S. SaaS sector had already begun to decline on February 3, with a drop of 4.12% in the Wind U.S. SaaS index, leading to a total market value loss exceeding $30 billion [2]. Group 3: Causes of Market Sentiment - The catalyst for the sell-off was the introduction of an AI plugin by Anthropic, which automates various legal tasks, raising concerns about the potential obsolescence of traditional SaaS offerings [3][4]. - The term "SaaSpocalypse" was coined by traders to describe the market's reaction to the perceived threat posed by AI to the SaaS business model [3]. Group 4: SaaS Business Model Insights - SaaS operates on a subscription model, providing services like CRM and ERP, which contrasts with traditional software sales [6]. - The low entry barriers and integration of industry best practices are key advantages of SaaS, making it appealing to small and medium-sized enterprises [6]. - While AI can enhance SaaS offerings by providing personalized solutions, it also presents challenges, particularly for smaller businesses that may struggle with AI deployment [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The market may be overreacting, as SaaS still holds advantages in the SME sector, and a differentiation within the SaaS market is expected [7]. - Deloitte predicts that the SaaS business model may evolve, with a shift towards hybrid pricing models based on usage and outcomes by 2026 [7]. - Gartner forecasts that by 2030, at least 40% of enterprise SaaS spending will transition to usage-based or outcome-based pricing models [7].

Core Viewpoint - North Chip Life Technology Co., Ltd. has successfully listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board, marking the first successful listing of an innovative medical device company under the "fifth set of standards" [1][2] Company Overview - North Chip Life focuses on the research, development, production, and sales of innovative medical devices for precise diagnosis and treatment of cardiovascular diseases, with 17 approved and in-development products as of September 30, 2025 [1][3] - The company was founded in December 2015 by Song Liang, who has over 18 years of experience in advanced medical imaging technology and cardiovascular interventional device development [2][3] Financial Performance - The company has experienced significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 520 million to 560 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 64.24% to 76.88% [5] - The net profit for 2025 is expected to be between 78 million and 88 million yuan, marking a turnaround from previous losses [5] - The company raised a total of 999 million yuan in its IPO, with a net amount of 899 million yuan allocated primarily for the construction of an interventional medical device industrial base and R&D [5] Product Development and Market Position - North Chip Life has launched 11 products to the market and has 6 products in development, with its core IVUS and FFR systems having received special review and approval from national authorities [3][4] - The IVUS system is the first domestically approved 60MHz high-speed IVUS product and has captured a significant market share, while the FFR system holds a 30.6% share of the domestic market [4][5] R&D Investment - The company has consistently increased its R&D investment, totaling 389 million yuan over the past three years, with a workforce of 100 R&D personnel, over 40% of whom hold advanced degrees [3][5] Market Trends and Growth Potential - The domestic market for IVUS is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a compound annual growth rate of approximately 19.4% from 2024 to 2030 [8] - The overall market for precision-guided percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is anticipated to grow from 2.04 billion yuan in 2022 to 9.42 billion yuan by 2030, with IVUS and FFR systems expected to dominate this market [8] Competitive Landscape - North Chip Life faces competition from established international firms and other domestic manufacturers in the IVUS and FFR markets, which may impact its market share and pricing strategies [7][8] - The company is also subject to pressures from national procurement policies that could affect pricing and market dynamics [7][8]