存储热得发烫，在AI浪潮中三星电子利润预计将创下历史新高。 | (in trillion won) | 2025.3Q | 2024.4Q | | --- | --- | --- | | Sales | 86.06 | 75.79 | | Operating profit | 12.17 | 6.49 | 数据背后的逻辑非常清晰：这不是需求全面复苏的故事，这是一个供给侧被AI强行挤压的故事。 为了满足英伟达等AI巨头对高带宽内存（HBM）和企业级SSD的无底洞般的需求，三星等存储制造商正在激进地将生产线从普通消费级芯片转向 高利润的高端芯片。这种产能的结构性转移，直接导致了用于笔记本电脑和服务器的标准存储芯片出现严重短缺。 对于市场而言，这里的预期差在于：市场此前虽然预判了涨价，但低估了"超大规模云服务商（Hyperscalers）"为抢夺DRAM资源而支付溢价的意 愿，低估了这场供应危机的严重程度。而三星股价在过去半年已翻倍，并在本月继续飙升，反映出市场对存储周期的强烈看多情绪。 华尔街押注：存储芯片价格将"失控式"涨价 营业利润（Operating Profit）： 预计高达20万亿韩元，同比翻三倍，同比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent social media posts by President Trump have caused significant volatility in the U.S. stock market, particularly affecting the housing and defense sectors due to policy uncertainty [2][4]. Housing Sector - Trump announced plans to "immediately" prohibit large institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes, aiming to address housing affordability issues. This announcement led to panic selling in related stocks, including major private equity firms and large rental companies [2][4]. - The stock prices of major residential real estate investors like Blackstone and Invitation Homes saw significant declines, with Blackstone dropping as much as 9.3% during trading [6]. - Analysts express skepticism regarding the actual impact of institutional investors on housing affordability, noting that the largest 24 single-family rental owners only account for about 3.5% of the total rental market [10]. Defense Sector - Following the housing announcement, Trump targeted defense contractors, warning them against paying dividends or repurchasing stocks unless they accelerate production and maintenance of military equipment. This led to a decline in defense stocks, including RTX Corp. [8]. - However, after announcing a proposed military budget of $1.5 trillion for 2027, defense stocks rebounded in after-hours trading, indicating a mixed market reaction to Trump's statements [8][10]. Market Reaction - The S&P 500 index experienced a decline of 0.3% after initially approaching the 7000-point mark, reflecting the market's struggle to interpret the implications of Trump's rapid-fire social media communications [2][10]. - Market analysts highlighted the challenges of digesting information released directly via social media without any buffering, suggesting that this could lead to dangerous market adjustments [10].

Core Viewpoint - Tether has launched a new unit of measurement called "Scudo" for its gold-backed stablecoin XAUT, aiming to enhance the use of gold in payment systems [1][2]. Group 1: Introduction of Scudo - Tether introduced "Scudo," which is defined as one-thousandth of a troy ounce of gold, equivalent to one-thousandth of the value of its gold-backed token XAUT, currently valued at approximately $4.48 [1][2]. - The term "Scudo" has historical roots dating back to the 16th century, used to describe various Italian coins, and is derived from the Latin word for "shield" [4]. Group 2: Market Context and Growth - Tether cites ongoing inflation concerns, interest rate uncertainty, record central bank gold purchases, and increased demand for safe-haven assets as factors creating an opportunity for gold to regain its status as a widely accepted payment medium [2][7]. - The market capitalization of Tether's XAUT has reached $2.3 billion, growing nearly threefold over the past year, with Tether claiming to hold 116 tons of gold valued at nearly $17 billion as of the end of Q3 2025 [2]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The introduction of Scudo is seen as a response to the competitive landscape in the gold token market, particularly with Paxos launching PAXG, a gold-backed digital asset that has also seen significant growth [6][9]. - Paxos' PAXG has a market capitalization of $1.7 billion, having doubled in the past year, and is now the only gold token issued under federal regulatory oversight following approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency [9]. Group 4: Accessibility and Adoption - Tether emphasizes that the introduction of Scudo lowers the entry barrier, allowing anyone to own, price, and trade a small portion of gold, which is considered a trusted asset [5]. - Paolo Ardoino, Tether's CEO, stated that gold is proving to be a significant store of value alongside Bitcoin, and the digitalization of gold through XAUT is a step towards broader accessibility [5].

全球债券市场正经历有史以来最繁忙的开局。 周三仍有11家借款人进入市场，预计本周晚些时候还将有更多交易达成。本周的发行量有望达到自2020 年以来的最高水平，当时市场因疫情期间的刺激措施而充斥着流动性。 此外，承销商预计，在下周发布财报并解禁债务销售后，美国最大的几家银行也将掀起新一轮发债潮。 1月8日，据彭博汇编的数据显示，截至1月7日，美国、欧洲和亚洲的企业及政府在各类货币市场的借款 总额已达约2450亿美元。这一数字创下了同期历史最高纪录。美国投资级债券两日发行720亿美元，欧 洲单日融资额超570亿欧元，均刷新纪录。 随着企业在下周即将进入财报静默期前竞相锁定资金，去年12月搁置融资计划的发行人正蜂拥入市。尽 管全球地缘政治紧张局势升级，买家热情依然不减。这股发债狂潮覆盖了从高评级蓝筹股到高收益债券 的各个领域，同时也反映出借款人意图赶在与人工智能项目相关的债券发行激增之前抢占先机。 市场需求强劲消化了巨量供应，新发行的溢价几乎可以忽略不计。摩根大通投资组合经理Priya Misra表 示："这一年的开局一鸣惊人。需求一直跟得上供应，几乎没有任何新发行折让。" 1月通常是全球债券销售最繁忙的月份之一， ...

据彭博数据，此次再平衡将黄金权重从20.4%下调至14.9%，白银也面临权重削减。德意志银行分析师Michael Hsueh指出，按未平仓合约规模计算，白银将 承受最大的再平衡抛售压力，其次是铝和黄金。再平衡期将从1月9日持续至1月15日。 TD Securities分析师Daniel Ghali警告，最大白银ETF的交易量已达到仅在历史市场顶部才出现的极端水平，溢价处于历史高位，反映出散户投资者的投机狂 热。他认为，白银近期的暴涨"类似于一场爆仓的套利交易，接下来将是大宗商品周期中历史上常见的剧烈重新定价"。 德银分析师Michael Hsueh估算，240万盎司的黄金抛售可能导致金价下跌2.5%-3.0%，具体取决于采用的ETF敏感度模型和时间窗口。他回顾了过去五年的指 数再平衡事件，发现2021-2024年间，重大权重变化与价格走势方向一致，但2025年黄金权重下调却伴随着金价上涨。 彭博大宗商品指数(BCOM)年度再平衡将于本周五启动，白银面临大规模抛售压力。德意志银行和TD Securities两家投行预计，未来两周内将有77亿美元的 白银卖盘涌入市场，相当于COMEX白银市场未平仓合约总量的13% ...

华纳兄弟探索公司董事会拒绝了派拉蒙天舞修订后的收购要约，对派拉蒙千亿杠杆收购的可行性存疑。 周三华纳兄弟董事会在致股东信中表示，相比Netflix以每股27.75美元现金加股票收购其影视和流媒体业务的方案，派拉蒙的提议存在重大风险和 不确定性。 尽管亿万富翁Larry Ellison承诺个人担保404亿美元股权融资，支持派拉蒙以每股30美元的现金发起敌意收购，但华纳兄弟怀疑派拉蒙能否完成交 易，依旧选择拒绝修订后的收购要约。 华纳兄弟第七大股东Pentwater资管公司警告称，董事会若不与派拉蒙接洽是在"犯错"，并威胁在下次选举中反对所有董事会成员并投票反对 Netflix合并。 华纳兄弟股价周三涨0.33%至28.55美元，仍低于派拉蒙的报价。 融资结构引发交易风险担忧 派拉蒙的融资安排仍是关键症结。 华纳兄弟董事会重申了对超过500亿美元借款要求的担忧。据华纳兄弟在信中所述，市值约140亿美元的派拉蒙正在尝试一项需要946.5亿美元债务 和股权融资的收购，几乎是其总市值的七倍。 华纳兄弟表示： 如此巨额的债务融资以及派拉蒙报价的其他条款加剧了交易失败风险，尤其是与Netflix合并的确定性相比。目标公司或 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has officially initiated a global sales plan for Venezuelan oil, asserting indefinite control over the country's future oil exports and revenues, marking a significant shift in the management of Venezuela's oil resources following the ousting of President Maduro [1][6][7]. Group 1: U.S. Control Over Venezuelan Oil - The White House has begun selling Venezuelan oil globally, with proceeds deposited into U.S.-controlled bank accounts, allowing the government to decide on the distribution of funds [1][6]. - Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette emphasized that the U.S. will indefinitely control the sales of Venezuelan oil, including both existing stock and future production, focusing on controlling the flow of funds rather than seizing the oil itself [7][8]. - The initial oil sales will come from accumulated stockpiles due to U.S. sanctions, with the aim of stabilizing and increasing Venezuelan oil production [8][9]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Following the announcement, WTI crude oil prices fell below $55.80, reflecting a decline of approximately 2.4%, while Brent crude also saw a decrease of nearly 1.5% [2]. - The U.S. military has intensified actions against sanctioned oil tankers, including the seizure of two vessels linked to Venezuela, which could significantly impact global energy markets and geopolitical dynamics [5][10]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Investment Plans - The Trump administration is pushing for U.S. oil companies to rebuild Venezuela's oil infrastructure, with discussions already underway with several firms [5][9]. - The U.S. government is considering a compensation mechanism for American oil companies investing in Venezuela, as it aims to restore the country's oil production to previous levels, which may require substantial investment [9][8].

高盛董事总经理Chris Hussey指出，美国经济增长加速叠加货币政策宽松，将推动2026年初周期性板块上涨，包括小盘股、面向中等收入消费者的股票 以及与非住宅建筑周期相关的公司。 市场结构正在发生显著变化。进入2026年以来，包括英伟达、苹果、微软、谷歌母公司Alphabet、亚马逊、特斯拉和Meta在内的"科技七巨头"（Mag7） 总体累跌约0.5%，而标普500指数中的其余493只成分股总体累涨2.5%。随着投资者开年重新配置资产，工业、医疗保健和科技板块年初三个交易日表 现突出。 高盛高级投资组合策略师Ben Snider强调，业绩增长贡献了2025年标普500指数16%价格回报中的14个百分点，自1990年以来占该指数9%年化涨幅中的8 个百分点。在健康的经济增长和美联储持续宽松的宏观背景下，高盛预计标普500成分股2026年每股收益（EPS）将增长12%，2027年增长10%。 美国股市2026年开局呈现集中度分散化趋势，业绩增长正成为推动市场上涨的核心动力。高盛预计标普500指数2026年将上涨至7600点，主要由12%的 盈利增长驱动。 最后是价值投资机会。在2025年表现意外强劲后，较宽的 ...

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 Anthropic按3500亿美元估值融资100亿美元。（华尔街日报） ...

尽管面临美国关税压力和地缘紧张局势，印度政府预计本财年经济增速将超过7%，该国仍将保持全球 主要经济体中增长最快的地位。 印度仍是少数几个未与美国达成贸易协议的主要经济体之一，不确定性对经济前景构成压力。美国总统 特朗普去年8月对印度出口商品征收50%的关税，这是亚洲地区最高税率。 据新华社，美国总统特朗普1月4日警告，如果印度不按美方要求限制购买俄罗斯石油，美国可能继续提 高对印度产品征收的关税。2025年8月，美国政府以印度进口俄罗斯石油为由，对印度输美商品加征惩 罚性关税。 关税重创了印度劳动密集型出口行业，包括纺织品、宝石珠宝和皮革制品。高盛集团预计，即使假设印 度与美国在3月前达成贸易协议，下一财年印度经济增速也将放缓至6.8%。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 1月7日，印度统计和计划实施部发布的预估数据显示，截至明年3月的财年国内生产总值预计增长 7.4%，略低于经济学家中值预期7.5%。最终数据将在财年结束后公布。值得注意的是， ...