Core Insights - Mistral, a French AI startup, has achieved remarkable growth with an annual recurring revenue (ARR) exceeding $400 million, a 20-fold increase from $20 million a year ago, positioning itself as "Europe's OpenAI" [1][2] - The company plans to surpass $1 billion in ARR by the end of this year, driven by aggressive expansion among large enterprise clients, now exceeding 100 [1][2] - Mistral is investing €1.2 billion to build a new AI data center in Sweden, marking its first facility outside France, aimed at reducing reliance on external infrastructure [1][3] Vertical Integration and Infrastructure Expansion - Mistral is pursuing a vertical integration strategy by constructing and operating its own AI data centers instead of relying solely on major U.S. cloud providers [3] - The new Swedish facility will provide 23MW of computing power and is expected to be operational next year, leveraging low-carbon and relatively inexpensive local energy [4] - This infrastructure investment is projected to generate over €2 billion in revenue over the next five years, providing a predictable business model [4] Geopolitical Drivers of "Sovereign AI" Demand - There is growing concern in Europe regarding over-reliance on U.S. digital services, with over 80% of digital services and infrastructure depending on foreign providers, primarily American companies [5] - Mistral's position as the only homegrown developer of cutting-edge language models in Europe places it in a favorable position to meet the demand for data sovereignty among clients [5] - Current clients include major corporations and various European governments, with approximately 60% of revenue generated from Europe [5] Financial Position and Future Plans - Mistral's CEO indicated that the company does not require an IPO this year due to sufficient debt financing, although it may consider going public in the future to ensure independence [6] - The company is not currently pursuing an IPO, unlike competitors such as OpenAI and Anthropic, which are preparing for public offerings [5][6] Practical Applications and Market Realities - Despite the rapid growth of products like ChatGPT and Claude, Mistral's CEO expressed a pragmatic view of the market, noting that many enterprise clients are disappointed with off-the-shelf chatbot solutions [7] - There is skepticism regarding the notion that a single system can manage all business processes, emphasizing the continued relevance of traditional software companies that hold critical business data [7] - Mistral warns that startups focused solely on creating user interfaces for specific industries may find their strategies less valuable as AI technology evolves [7]

日经225指数首次涨破58000点。日本30年期、40年期国债收益率集体下行。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sell-off in the software sector due to AI threat narratives is exaggerated, according to executives from major financial institutions on Wall Street [1]. Group 1: Market Reaction and Sentiment - The stock prices of major software companies like Salesforce and Adobe plummeted, resulting in the evaporation of hundreds of billions in market value, driven by fears that AI will replace traditional software functions [1]. - Executives from firms such as Goldman Sachs, Blackstone, Apollo Global Management, and KKR have stated that the current market reaction is an "indiscriminate" sell-off, arguing that the belief that all software companies will become obsolete is overly broad and unfounded [1][8]. Group 2: Industry Transformation - Apollo's co-president John Zito emphasized that while the software industry will not disappear, its business logic will change, and the market will experience a "very severe technology cycle" with clear winners and losers [2]. - Zito warned investors against judging software companies solely based on current revenue figures, using the analogy of BlackBerry's decline after the iPhone's release [2]. Group 3: AI's Impact on Subscription Models - The immediate cause of market panic was Anthropic's announcement of a new legal tool for its Cowork assistant, which raised concerns about the fate of various software providers [2][7]. - Software companies are seen as particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on subscription and licensing fees for revenue [7]. Group 4: Differentiation in Market Response - Blackstone's CFO Michael Chae noted that the market's response lacks rationality, predicting that larger, well-established companies will be better protected and may even benefit from AI advancements [8]. - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon echoed this sentiment, suggesting that the narrative surrounding the software sector has been overly generalized [8]. Group 5: Risk Exposure of Financial Institutions - KKR's CFO Robert Lewin indicated that approximately 15% of KKR's private equity investments are exposed to software companies, representing about 7% of their total assets, but emphasized the diversity of their investments as a protective measure [9]. - Goldman Sachs' David Solomon downplayed the risk exposure in software investments, stating it is "insignificant" relative to the overall scale of their platform [9].

Core Insights - Bill Ackman, a prominent hedge fund manager, has bet on Meta's success in the AI race, with his firm Pershing Square establishing a position of approximately $2 billion in Meta, representing 10% of the fund's capital, making it one of the largest holdings in the company [1] - Pershing Square disclosed this investment during its annual investor meeting, having started building the position in November last year at an average cost of $625 per share, amidst concerns over Meta's significant spending in AI, which led to a 13% decline in its stock price over the past six months, creating an entry opportunity for the fund [1] - The fund believes that Meta's business model is one of the clearest beneficiaries of AI integration, enhancing content recommendations and personalized advertising capabilities, and potentially opening new opportunities in wearable devices or enterprise AI digital assistants [1] Investment Strategy - Ackman is known for a highly concentrated investment style, with Pershing Square holding only 13 stocks by the end of 2025, including other large tech companies like Alphabet and Amazon [4] - Recently, the fund has exited two long-term positions in Chipotle Mexican Grill and Hilton Worldwide, reflecting Ackman's preference for a few high-conviction targets rather than a diversified investment strategy [4] - Pershing Square achieved a return of 20.9% last year, outperforming the S&P 500 index by 17.9%, with major contributions from Alphabet, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac, although the fund experienced a decline of 2.5% in January of this year [4] Performance and Future Investments - Since the establishment of the position in Meta, the stock has risen by 11%, with an additional 3% increase as of February 9 this year, supporting the overall returns of Pershing Square [5] - In addition to Meta, Pershing Square has made other significant investments in 2025, including a $900 million investment in real estate company Howard Hughes Holdings and up to $1 billion in support for the acquisition of insurance company Vantage Group Holdings [5] - Ackman aims to transform Howard Hughes into a diversified holding company similar to Berkshire Hathaway, indicating a shift in investment vision beyond mere stock selection to deeper corporate value restructuring [5]

华见早安之声 美元日内波动较大，尾盘微涨0.08%。日元三连涨，日内一度升值超1%。 加密货币疲软。比特币跌1.2%，以太坊跌超2%。 现货黄金震荡走高1.3%，白银冲高回落，仍涨逾4%。特朗普私下考虑退出《美墨加协定》，WTI原油涨1%。 亚洲时段，沪指七连阳，创业板跌1%，两市成交不足2万亿，玻璃纤维概念股大爆发，恒科指涨近1%，小米涨超4%。 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 市场概述 美国1月非农报告整体强劲，打压市场的降息预期，交易员将首次降息的预期时间从6月推迟至7月，美债跌。 美股高开，但随后因大型科技股走弱而回吐涨幅，三大美股指收盘微跌。AI颠覆担忧仍在发酵，软件股ETF跌2.6%，房地产服务类股也因AI担忧而遭到抛 售，CBRE集团和Jones Lang LaSalle暴跌12%。 美债收益率走高，2年期美债收益率上行6.4个基点，10年期收益率上涨约3个基点。 美国2026财年前四个月预算赤字缩小17%，关税收入大增。美国会预算办公室：特朗普财政路径不可持续，未来十年美赤字预期提高1.4万亿美 元。 要闻 中国 李强：全面推进人工智能科技创新、产业发展和赋能应用，培 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock prices of real estate service companies have significantly declined as investors reassess the vulnerability of these firms to artificial intelligence applications and tools [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On Wednesday, CBRE Group and Jones Lang LaSalle saw their stock prices plummet by 12%, while Cushman & Wakefield dropped by 14%, marking the largest single-day declines since the market sell-off in 2020 [1]. - Analysts from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods noted that investors are withdrawing from high-fee, labor-intensive business models perceived as susceptible to AI-driven disruption [3]. - Barclays analyst Brendan Lynch described the stock price drop as "excessive," attributing part of the selling pressure to concerns over AI's potential disruption to the job market and commercial real estate demand [5]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The commercial real estate sector is facing additional challenges, having struggled to recover since the pandemic, with changes in office demand and high interest rates severely limiting transaction volumes [4]. - Despite the AI boom providing growth opportunities in certain segments, such as data centers and high-end office leasing, investors are weighing whether advancements in AI will ultimately pressure some business operations through automation and streamlined processes [4]. - CBRE and Jones Lang LaSalle have been attempting to mitigate the impact of market downturns by expanding their services into property management, valuation, and investment sales across various sectors, including hotels, warehousing, apartments, and life sciences laboratories [4]. Group 3: Long-term Perspectives - Analysts believe that the immediate concerns regarding AI's threat to leasing and capital markets are limited, as CBRE and its peers benefit from significant scale advantages, including data and industry relationships [6]. - While there is a consensus that the market's fears regarding immediate AI risks may be overstated, there remains a cautious outlook on the long-term implications of AI [6].

新近报道显示，因为在近期的测试中遭遇技术瓶颈，苹果公司备受期待的多项Siri虚拟助手功能发布面临重大调整。 据美东时间11日周三的报道，苹果原计划2026年3月上线新操作系统iOS 26.4时推出Siri的新功能，直到上个月仍坚持3月这 个目标时间。苹果的高管们长期坚持，不希望新功能推迟到2026年春季之后发布。而在测试发现问题后，苹果现在考虑， 将一些功能分散至后续iOS更新时发布，部分功能可能推迟至5月上线iOS 26.5时、甚至9月iOS 27上线时。 报道援引知情人士消息，在测试过程中，新版Siri暴露了软件无法正确处理查询、响应时间过长以及准确性不足等问题， 这成为此次推迟的主要原因。知情者称，形势仍在不断变化，苹果的计划可能进一步调整。 苹果的发言人拒绝就上述消息置评。消息传出后，午盘曾涨超2%的苹果股价加速回吐涨幅，日内涨幅一度收窄至不足 0.6%，收盘时涨近0.7%，回吐过半盘中涨幅。 此次延迟是苹果升级Siri计划的最新挫折。苹果于2024年6月首次展示计划推出苹果个人智能系统Apple Intelligence加持版 本的Siri功能，承诺让Siri能够利用个人数据和屏幕内容更好地满足用户 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. House of Representatives is set to vote on whether to overturn President Trump's tariffs on Canada, highlighting divisions within the Republican Party and the potential economic implications of these tariffs [1][2][3]. Group 1: Legislative Actions - The House will vote on a resolution proposed by Representative Gregory Meeks to revoke the tariffs announced by Trump in February 2025 [2]. - Three Republican members joined Democrats to defeat an attempt by House Speaker Mike Johnson to delay the vote until late July, indicating a split within the party [1][2]. - The Senate has already expressed opposition to Trump's tariff policy by passing legislation to abandon the global emergency tariffs and those on Canada and Brazil [2]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The tariffs are viewed as a significant tax burden on American consumers, manufacturers, and farmers, with some lawmakers arguing they have a net negative impact on the economy [1][2]. - The Democratic Party is framing the tariffs as a driver of inflation and a contributor to the cost of living crisis, making it a key campaign issue for the upcoming midterm elections [3]. Group 3: Political Dynamics - The upcoming vote will force House Republicans to choose between loyalty to the President and the economic interests of their constituents, given the slim majority in the House [1][3]. - Even if the House passes the resolution, it is unlikely to force Trump to concede, as any joint resolution would require the President's signature to become law or a two-thirds majority in both chambers to override a veto [3]. Group 4: Trade Agreements - Trump is reportedly considering withdrawing from the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement), which could destabilize one of the largest trade relationships globally, covering approximately $2 trillion in goods and services [5]. - The upcoming mandatory review of the USMCA has turned into a contentious negotiation, particularly with Canada, as the U.S. Trade Representative indicated that negotiations with Canada are more challenging than those with Mexico [5].

风险提示及免责条款 思科第二财季营收153亿美元，分析师预期151.2亿美元。第二财季来自人工智能超大规模云服务商（AI HyperScaler）的订单加速至21亿美元。预计全年营收612亿-617亿美元，公司原本预计602亿-610亿美 元。 预计第三财季营收154亿-156亿美元，分析师预期151.8亿美元。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

有"新美联储通讯社"之称的华尔街日报首席经济记者Nick Timiraos评论称，1月就业报告巩固了美联储暂停降息会持续更久的决心。他援引美联储主席鲍威 尔1月28日的讲话称，"经济再一次以其强劲表现让我们感到意外——这已经不是第一次了。" Timiraos认为，现在人们的注意力转移到了CPI的年初价格重 置。 美国1月非农就业报告显示劳动力市场超预期强劲，促使市场推迟对美联储降息时点的预期，交易员普遍预计的首次降息时间从此前的6月推迟至7月。 美东时间11日周三公布的报告显示，美国1月新增非农就业人数为13万，远超市场共识预期的6.5万，为一年多来最大月度增幅；1月失业率并未如市场预期 企稳，反而降至4.3%；2025年全年就业数据遭遇大幅下修，显示去年劳动力市场实际表现远弱于此前认知。 这份报告推动美国国债价格全线下跌，两年期美债的收益率势创2025年10月以来最大单日升幅。利率互换市场显示，交易员认为美联储3月降息的可能性不 到5%，预计到今年12月降息总幅度约为49个基点，低于周二预计的年内降幅59个基点。这份数据让下任美联储主席提名人沃什（Kevin Warsh）未来更难以 推动降息。 华尔街机构普 ...