美光科技股价创下技术指标极端纪录，当前股价较长期趋势线的偏离程度已超越互联网泡沫和Windows 95热潮时期的峰值水平，历史数据显示这一信号往往预示着大幅回调。 美光近月来呈抛物线式上涨，今年1月出现自2000年2月以来最大单月涨幅——而那正是互联网泡沫破裂 前夕。人工智能驱动的供应短缺与需求激增，推动美光及部分存储企业的价格和利润双双走高。 相比之下，2000年初互联网泡沫顶峰时期，这一偏离度最高仅达98%。当美光股价在2000年7月14日见 顶时，偏离度为89%。此后三个月内股价暴跌65%，12个月后仍下跌62%。 此前的纪录出现在1995年9月11日，当时偏离度为124%。彼时美光股价因微软发布Windows 95而飙升， 新操作系统引发存储芯片强劲需求，导致供应短缺并推高价格和利润——这一场景与当前AI热潮高度 相似。那次峰值过后三个月，股价下跌42%；12个月后暴跌77%。 基本面强劲难掩估值风险 美光当前的上涨确有坚实基本面支撑。AI应用带来的供应紧张与需求增长，正在为存储芯片行业创造 有利环境。这也解释了为何绝大多数华尔街分析师维持乐观预期。 周一美光股价飙升5.5%，创下过去五个交易日中的第 ...

全球贵金属市场在上周五经历了一场历史性的暴跌，白银单日重挫近30%，黄金也大幅回撤。 尽管跌幅惊人，但多家华尔街投行分析师认为，这是一场由过度拥挤的持仓和保证金上调引发的技术性 出清，而非基本面逻辑的根本性逆转。 市场数据显示，iShares Silver Trust上周五下跌28.5%至75.44美元，创下有史以来最大单日跌幅；SPDR Gold Shares下跌10.3%至444.95美元。 据高盛交易部门观察，白银的波动率飙升至仅在全球金融危机最严重时期和新冠疫情封锁期间才出现过 的极端水平，其ETF名义交易量超过320亿美元。 该行在周日的研究报告中写道，黄金仍是一个动态的、多层面的投资组合对冲工具，央行和投资者的需 求依然强于预期。摩根大通预测，在央行购金和投资者需求的推动下，金价将在2026年年底达到每盎司 6,300美元。尽管金价越高"空气越稀薄"，但结构性反弹并未面临崩盘风险。 摩根大通目前预测，2026年各国央行的黄金购买量将达到800吨，理由是外汇储备多元化的趋势正在持 续不断。 相比之下，摩根大通对白银持"更加谨慎"的态度。分析师指出，白银近期上涨的驱动因素难以量化，且 缺乏像央行那样明 ...

Core Viewpoint - The transition towards "new and old coexisting" for institutional investors is occurring, indicating a shift from "new surpassing old" in 2025 to a balanced allocation in 2026, emphasizing the need to invest in both AI technology and cyclical sectors like manufacturing and commodities [1][3]. Group 1: Technology Sector Rebalancing - The essence of the "new" is the downward movement of AI technology, transitioning towards the fourth stage of supply-demand gaps, with upstream gaps in copper, storage, and power equipment, and downstream gaps in AI applications and components [1][3]. - The internal rebalancing within technology indicates a need to avoid simplistic trading strategies based on risk preferences [3]. Group 2: Export and Overseas Business Rebalancing - The "old" aspect reflects a shift in exports and overseas business towards the midstream, with traditional industries stabilizing and growing profits as they move from downstream manufacturing to midstream sectors like engineering machinery, wind power, chemicals, and industrial metals [1][3]. - The rebalancing in overseas business highlights the increasing profitability and growth potential of midstream manufacturing compared to downstream exports [3][24]. Group 3: Resource Pricing Rebalancing - In 2026, resource pricing may not align with the assumption of a consistently weak dollar, suggesting a potential for a stronger dollar, emphasizing the return to commodity attributes and a decline in financial attributes [1][4]. - The focus on resource pricing indicates that commodities driven by supply-demand fundamentals are more likely to see price increases, making them attractive for continued investment [4][24]. Group 4: Institutional Investor Trends - Observations from Q4 2025 indicate a clear consensus among institutional investors on AI technology, overseas equipment, and globally priced resources as key investment areas, with these sectors showing significant gains in the A-share market [2][5]. - The increase in FOF products and the rise of passive funds reflect a strong demand for stable, income-generating investment products, while active funds are experiencing a decline [5][41]. Group 5: Sector-Specific Insights - In Q4 2025, institutional investors increased their holdings in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, communication, basic chemicals, non-bank financials, and machinery, while reducing exposure in pharmaceuticals, computing, electronics, media, and renewable energy [5][6]. - The allocation towards AI technology is showing divergence, with a decrease in holdings for sectors with weaker earnings visibility, while sectors with strong earnings, like CPO, are seeing increased investment [6][10].

2月2日周一，美国总统特朗普在白宫椭圆形办公室接受采访时明确表示，针对美联储主席鲍威尔的刑事 调查不应停止。面对共和党参议员Thom Tillis关于"不停止调查就阻挠新主席提名"的最后通牒，特朗普 的回应直截了当——让华盛顿美国检察官Jeanine Pirro继续查下去。 在周一的讲话中，特朗普使用了极具冲击力的措辞来定性这一工程存在的问题。他说道： "这要么是严重的无能，要么是某种形式的盗窃、回扣（kickbacks）。我不知道具体是什 么，但Jeanine Pirro非常出色，她会查个水落石出的。" "Jeanine Pirro应该彻底查到底，看看会发生什么，"特朗普对在场记者强调。 特朗普长期以来一直抨击美联储总部的翻修工程耗时数年且耗资数十亿美元，认为其中暗藏腐败。对 此，美联储方面一直辩解称，翻修旨在长期降低央行成本，并对成本增加做出了解释。 这一表态不仅加剧了白宫与美联储之间的紧张关系，更为下一任美联储主席的交接蒙上了浓重的政治阴 影。市场目前最担忧的是，特朗普对鲍威尔的穷追猛打，可能导致其提名的继任者无法顺利上任。 然而，市场普遍认为，这场"反腐"调查的背后是货币政策的博弈。鲍威尔曾于1月11 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's nomination of Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair brings attention to billionaire investor Druckenmiller, who has significantly influenced Warsh's economic thinking through their long-term collaboration [1][2]. Group 1: Warsh's Background and Influence - Warsh worked with Druckenmiller for over a decade at Duquesne Family Office, where he learned to prioritize data-driven decision-making over reliance on Federal Reserve forecasts [1]. - Despite being viewed as an inflation "hawk," Warsh has recently adopted a more moderate stance, which is seen as a way to maintain the Federal Reserve's independence amid Trump's pressure for rate cuts [1][3]. - Druckenmiller supports Warsh's nomination, stating that labeling Warsh as always hawkish is inaccurate, as he has demonstrated flexibility in his positions [1]. Group 2: Druckenmiller's Investment Philosophy - Druckenmiller is known for one of the best investment records on Wall Street, with an average annual return of approximately 30% and no annual losses throughout his career [2]. - His notable achievements include a significant profit of over $1 billion from shorting the British pound in 1992 while working with Soros [2]. - Druckenmiller's investment strategy is enhanced by insights from influential corporate executives, as he regularly consults them on current business conditions [2]. Group 3: Expectations for Warsh's Leadership - Investors expect Warsh to rely on insights and intelligence gained from his experience with Druckenmiller, which is viewed as a valuable education [3]. - Druckenmiller has long criticized excessive government borrowing and has warned about the U.S. fiscal deficit, labeling it a "debt bomb" [3]. - There is uncertainty regarding the extent of Druckenmiller's influence on Warsh's policies if he becomes Federal Reserve Chair, as the Fed typically maintains a cautious approach to avoid conflicts of interest [5]. Group 4: Balancing Independence and Influence - Critics of Warsh argue that his cautious response during the 2008-09 financial crisis reflects a disconnect between his previous hawkish stance and his current views on deregulation and AI's potential to curb inflation [5]. - Despite concerns about the risks of direct connections between active investors and the Federal Reserve, there is optimism on Wall Street that Warsh can uphold the Fed's tradition of independence while embracing Druckenmiller's data-driven approach [5].

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 日经225指数高开1.3%， 韩国首尔综指高开3.3%。现货黄金现涨2.5%，接近4800美元关口；现货白银涨 5%，站上83美元关口。 ...

Core Viewpoint - NXP Semiconductors reported fourth-quarter revenue of $3.34 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $3.3 billion. The company anticipates first-quarter revenue to be between $3.05 billion and $3.25 billion, slightly below the analyst forecast of $3.09 billion [1] Group 1 - NXP Semiconductors' fourth-quarter revenue was $3.34 billion [1] - Analyst expectations for fourth-quarter revenue were $3.3 billion [1] - The company projects first-quarter revenue between $3.05 billion and $3.25 billion [1] Group 2 - Analyst expectations for first-quarter revenue are $3.09 billion [1]

马斯克旗下太空探索公司SpaceX在备忘录中确认：与xAI合并。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The United States and Iran are attempting to resolve tensions through diplomatic negotiations, but significant differences remain in their positions regarding the scope of discussions, particularly on nuclear issues and sanctions [1][4]. Group 1: Diplomatic Efforts - Iranian President Pezeshkian has ordered the initiation of nuclear talks, with high-level negotiations expected to occur soon between U.S. Special Envoy Wittekopf and Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif in Istanbul [1][3]. - The upcoming meeting in Istanbul will include foreign ministers from Turkey, Qatar, Egypt, Oman, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, indicating a broad international interest in the negotiations [1][3]. - U.S. Defense Secretary Esper has warned that if Iran refuses to negotiate on its nuclear program, the U.S. is prepared to take action [2][4]. Group 2: Divergent Positions - The core disagreement lies in the negotiation agenda, with the U.S. insisting on a comprehensive agreement that includes Iran's nuclear, missile, and regional proxy issues, while Iran is focused solely on nuclear discussions [4][5]. - Iranian officials emphasize that the lifting of sanctions is a critical demand for their participation in negotiations, asserting that any agreement must be mutually beneficial [2][4]. Group 3: Regional Dynamics - Regional countries, including Jordan and Saudi Arabia, have expressed neutrality and will not support any military actions against Iran, indicating a cautious approach to the escalating tensions [7]. - The U.S. has significantly increased its military presence in the Gulf region, with the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group positioned to respond quickly if necessary [2][6].

美国政府停摆致1月就业报告推迟发布，市场面临关键数据空窗期。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 1月30日，美国参议院通过拨款法案，将为国防部、教育部、卫生与公众服务部、劳工部、交通部以及 住房与城市发展部在内的多个联邦机构提供资金，但修改后的方案仍需获得众议院批准。美国东部时间 1月31日0时起，美国联邦政府多个部门陷入"技术性停摆"。 众议院共和党籍议长迈克·约翰逊当地时间2月1日表示，共和党人准备"单干"，以推动给多部门拨款的 法案尽快获批。美国联邦政府多部门的"技术性停摆"将至少持续至3日。 风险提示及免责条款 当地时间2月2日， 美国劳工统计局表示，由于联邦政府部分"停摆"，原定于6日发布的美1月就业报告 将不会按时公布。美劳工统计局分管官员艾米丽·利德尔在一份声明中表示： 该报告将在政府资金恢复后重新安排发布时间。 ...