知名债券分析师、前汇丰控股全球固定收益研究主管、经纪商Tradition Dubai的全球宏观顾问Steven Major表示，由凯文·沃什领导 的美联储的降息幅度可能远超市场当前预期。 在美国总统特朗普上周表示将提名沃什出任美联储主席后，市场一度对该任命对利率的潜在影响存在些许困惑。沃什曾在美联储 担任决策者，并以忧心通胀著称，而特朗普则一直在推动大幅降息。 Major周二在接受彭博电视采访时说："我认为，一个相当合理的假设是：如果他不属于降息阵营，就不会被考虑担任这个职位。 市场目前计入了大约两次降息，但我们可能会看到四或五次，而非两次。" 货币市场目前给出的定价是：2026年出现第二次降息的概率约为80%，上周市场一度认为存在第三次降息的可能。这是因为相比 特朗普此前考虑的其他人选，市场认为沃什更偏鹰派。他的提名仍需获得参议院确认。 Major不看好曲线陡峭化交易 在债券市场，美国国债周二基本持稳，两年期收益率报3.58%，10年期收益率为4.29%。 降息预期导致美国经济可能升温和通胀重燃的前景，促使投资者青睐短期债券而非长期美债，推动收益率曲线陡峭化。 Major曾担任汇丰控股全球固定收益研究主管， ...

Core Viewpoint - The market performance at the beginning of 2026 is breaking traditional historical patterns, with significant divergence between stocks and bonds observed in the Chinese capital market [1]. Market Environment - The A-share market is expected to experience a "spring rally" after the Spring Festival, with a shift from a defensive large-cap style to a growth-oriented small-cap style [1][5]. - The bond market has shown a "V-shaped" recovery after initial pressure, with a structural interest rate cut of 0.25% by the central bank in January, leading to a stabilization in market sentiment [3][12]. Historical Patterns - Historical data from 2015 to 2025 indicates a clear seasonal pattern in the A-share market, with a 63.64% probability of the CSI 300 index rising in the 30 days before the Spring Festival, while the probability for the CSI 1000 index is only 27.27% [5][6]. - Post-Spring Festival, the CSI 300 index has a 72.73% probability of rising, with an average increase of 3.15%, while the CSI 1000 index shows an 81.82% probability and an average increase of 8.71% [5][6]. Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market typically shows strength in the 30 days before the Spring Festival due to increased liquidity and strong demand from institutional investors, with a historical average decline of 5.73 basis points in the 1-year bond yield [7][11]. - After the Spring Festival, the bond market may face upward pressure on yields due to changes in policy expectations and increased supply, with an average increase of 1.03 basis points in the 10-year bond yield [7][11]. 2026 Outlook - The foundation for the "spring rally" is expected to be stronger this year due to favorable policy expectations, global liquidity conditions, and a trend of residents allocating more assets to equity markets [12]. - Consumer demand is anticipated to be released earlier than in previous years due to an extended holiday, with expectations for increased spending on travel and consumption [12]. - The bond market is likely to experience a range-bound trading pattern, with reduced necessity for further rate cuts following the January reduction [12]. Potential Changes in Patterns - The traditional "strong bonds, weak stocks" model before the Spring Festival may be disrupted this year, with both markets potentially showing support and increased competition [13]. - The typical post-Spring Festival shift to small-cap growth may be weakened, as large-cap growth could perform well alongside high-dividend assets, leading to a mixed market style rather than a clear transition [13][14].

这一动荡对市场参与者的情绪产生了直接的分化影响。一方面，华尔街机构交易员正在紧急降低方向性风险，高盛交易部门指出，极端的波动使 得持有大量头寸变得"非常不舒服"，建议缩小仓位规模。另一方面，实物市场的需求却异常火爆。据彭博报道，从新加坡到悉尼，再到中国的黄 金交易中心，大量散户排队抢购金条和金饰，试图利用价格回调的机会入场，这种零售端的强劲买盘为金价提供了一定支撑。 尽管短期走势不明朗，但主流机构并未完全放弃长期看涨观点。德意志银行重申其黄金每盎司6,000美元的目标价，认为宏观驱动因素未变。高盛 研究部门也维持2026年12月金价达到5,400美元的预测，理由是央行购金持续以及美联储潜在的降息路径。市场目前的焦点在于，实物需求的韧性 是否足以抵消技术面破坏和机构去杠杆带来的压力。 技术面受损与量化抛售 从技术层面看，贵金属的短期走势仍面临严峻挑战。据The Market Ear分析，黄金在近期的混乱中一度跌破50日均线及上升趋势线，尽管随后的 反弹将其推回21日均线上方，但上方阻力位明显。初步阻力位在5,100美元附近，这大致相当于此前大阴线（不含影线）的50%回撤位，且8日均 线正位于其下方。 白银的技术 ...

风险提示及免责条款 米兰称，很期待沃什担任美联储主席后的表现。华尔街见闻此前提及，特朗普提名前美联储理事凯文· 沃什为下一任美联储主席，市场随机押注更鹰派的资产负债表政策。 更新中...... 特朗普钦点理事米兰（Stephen Miran）周二表示，美联储今年需要降息不止100个基点，很期待沃什 （Kevin Warsh）担任美联储主席后的表现。 米兰在讲话中明确表示，潜在通胀不是问题，经济方面没有看到太多强劲的价格压力。这一判断为他主 张的大幅降息提供了基础。 他强调，未来更好的经济增长并不需要更高的利率。他指出，长期收益率上升部分原因是增长预期改 善，而非通胀担忧加剧。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

在米兰冬奥会开幕的倒计时声中，安踏以一种极具象征意义的方式，再度扩充了自己的奥运版图。 根据安踏官宣的消息，其已正式成为希腊奥委会的战略合作伙伴，将为希腊代表团提供全套领奖装备与 生活装备。 希腊作为奥林匹克运动的发源地，其代表团在每一届奥运会开幕式上都拥有首个入场的"特权"。 这意味着，在即将于2月7日凌晨拉开帷幕的米兰冬奥会上，安踏的标识将随着第一支走进会场的代表 队，率先完成在全球转播镜头中的亮相。 这无疑给拿回中国奥委会赞助权的李宁带来了微妙的压力。 不久前的1月27日，米兰冬奥会中国体育代表团动员大会在北京召开，成员们身着李宁提供的全套装备 整齐亮相。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 为了将这种"正统性"迅速转化为商业效能，此次李宁选择将代表团同款产品在发布会当天便推向市售， 首次实现了与消费者的"零时差"同步。 而对通过多品牌战略稳坐国内头把交椅的安踏来说，延续利用奥运杠杆实现品牌全球跃升与专业认证的 策略，仍是一条高性价比的有效路 ...

Core Viewpoint - Google's controversial investment in SpaceX a decade ago is evolving into one of the most profitable bets in Silicon Valley history, especially following SpaceX's acquisition of AI company xAI, which positions Google to reap substantial returns from its stake in SpaceX [1] Group 1: Investment Overview - Google, alongside Fidelity, invested $1 billion in SpaceX in January 2015, with Google's share being approximately $900 million, at a time when SpaceX was valued at only $12 billion [2] - The initial skepticism surrounding the investment stemmed from SpaceX's unproven technology and the challenges it faced in establishing a satellite internet service [2] - Despite doubts, Google recognized the potential of SpaceX's monopoly in large-scale space launches and the increasing value of its business model due to rising global data and computing demands [2] Group 2: Financial Implications - If SpaceX goes public at a planned valuation of $1.5 trillion, Google's investment could soar from $900 million to approximately $111 billion, yielding a return of about $123 for every dollar invested [3] - This potential gain has already contributed to Google's financials, with $8 billion recorded as "non-marketable equity securities" in its earnings, representing 25% of its net profit for the first quarter [3] - The realization of this value upon SpaceX's IPO would significantly alter perceptions of Google's investment worth, especially given its current market capitalization of $4.1 trillion and a nearly 70% increase in stock price over the past year [3] Group 3: Future Considerations - Elon Musk has indicated that SpaceX may not go public until after establishing a reliable Mars colonization transport system, which could take many years [6] - However, there is a possibility of a separate IPO for SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet division, which is projected to account for up to 76% of SpaceX's revenue by 2025 [6] - Regardless of the eventual IPO structure, Google's investment in 2015 is poised to be one of the most successful venture capital investments in history [6]

耐克在户外赛道高举高打的阶段，或许正加速到来。 2月2日，耐克正式宣布重塑旗下All Conditions Gear（以下简称"ACG"）品牌，宣告这一诞生于1989年 的户外产品线将以"专业户外性能品牌"的全新身份重回赛场。 在经历了数年的"都市机能"与"复古潮流"摇摆后，耐克终于下定决心，要将ACG带回它最原始的战场： 硬核户外。 对于长期观察运动鞋服市场的行业人士而言，ACG的这次变阵并不意外。 此次，耐克宣布将原有的Nike Trail（越野跑）系列全面并入ACG。此前，耐克户外产品散见于跑步与 ACG两条线中，长期存在的职能重叠导致了消费认知的模糊。 收拢拳头后，ACG将构建起从Ultrafly越野跑鞋到Lava Loft羽绒夹克的专业矩阵，产品力直指越野跑、 徒步与户外探索三大核心领域。 为了支撑高端化与专业化的叙事，耐克在渠道端祭出重磅动作：全球首家独立门店"ACG大本营"即将在 北京三里屯太古里启幕。 独立门店的落地，标志着ACG正式摆脱主品牌专卖店的附属地位。耐克试图以此为支点，建立起一个 闭环的专业社群与服务体系。 全球首店落地北京，也侧面印证了大中华区在耐克全球战略中的关键地位。 随着山 ...

目前的市场格局呈现出"双轨制"竞争：一边是以ChatGPT和Gemini为代表的通用大模型平台，拥有庞大的流量和年轻用户群；另 一边是亚马逊、沃尔玛等零售巨头推出的专用AI工具，虽然用户基数较小，但转化率极高。对于谷歌、亚马逊、Meta以及沃尔玛 等标的而言，谁能在这个早期阶段抢占用户的心智和支付入口，谁就能在未来五年获得巨大的超额收益。 大模型平台渗透率逼近50%，年轻群体是绝对主力 研报指出，通用AI平台的普及率正在稳步攀升。截至2026年1月，ChatGPT和Gemini的月度使用率分别达到了47%和33%，较2025 年10月的45%和32%略有增长。这种增长虽然不是爆发式的，但显示出一种不可逆的趋势。 更为关键的是代际差异。ChatGPT在年轻群体中占据统治地位，在16-34岁的人群中，其使用率高达65%至75%以上。相比之下， Gemini的增长主要来自于35-44岁人群。这种"年龄断层"对谷歌是一个明显的战略信号：如果不尽快弥补在年轻用户中的产品差 距，未来数年的用户基础可能面临流失风险。 我们正处于电子商务的一个关键转折点，即所谓的"代理商务"时代的黎明。摩根士丹利认为，这一趋势并非空洞的炒作 ...

2026年开年的黄金市场，演绎了一场极致的"惊魂记"。 在短短数周内，现货金价从4300美元一路狂飙至5600美元的历史巅峰，随即又如断线风筝般坠落至4500美元下方。这种单日两位数的跌幅，在黄金历史上 仅出现过两次——分别是1980年和1983年。（编者注：2月3日，现货黄金大反弹，重回4900美元上方，完全收复昨日跌幅。） 面对"闪崩"，市场关于黄金泡沫破裂的质疑声此起彼伏。然而，巴克莱、瑞银和德意志银行等华尔街巨头却在巨震中保持了惊人的冷静。 在他们看来，这并非牛市的终结，而是一次极致挤压后的"健康清算"。在宏观叙事未变的背景下，黄金 正处于通往6000美元目标的"技术性休整"。 与此同时，一个关键的支撑是，中国买家正在疯狂扫货。德银报告显示，中国投资者目前的买入黄金ETF强度可能是去年的三倍以上。 大行共识："极致拥挤"后的技术性回踩 黄金之所以在近期出现剧烈调整，在华尔街眼中更多是"技术性"而非"根本性"的。瑞银在最新的报告中直言： 黄金涨势结束了吗？简而言之，我们的答案是否定的。 该行认为，金价从高位回落约21%，主要归结为短期投机头寸的"大清洗"。此前的单边暴涨导致市场仓位过度拥挤，当获利盘涌出 ...

Group 1: Consumer Sector Overview - Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, the consumer sector is undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with leading companies showing structural resilience and positive signals emerging in several sub-sectors [1] - The investment logic in the consumer sector has shifted from Beta-driven to Alpha-exploration, focusing on leading companies with scale barriers, brand influence, and operational efficiency [1] Group 2: Alcohol Industry - The overall sales of the liquor industry are experiencing a double-digit decline, but Kweichow Moutai is outperforming market expectations, with significant pre-holiday demand and double-digit growth in several key markets [2] - Moutai's traditional channel shipment progress is at 25%, with historical low inventory levels, leading to a steady price recovery to nearly 1700 yuan, confirming the price bottom [2] - The trend of increasing industry concentration continues, with leading brands expected to achieve year-on-year growth despite macroeconomic pressures [2] Group 3: Snack Industry - The bulk snack channel is rapidly replacing traditional retail formats, with a market size exceeding 129.7 billion yuan and a compound annual growth rate of 77.9% from 2019 to 2024 [3] - The market is highly concentrated, with leading brands "Mingming Hen Mang" and "Wancheng" holding over 75% market share, and "Mingming Hen Mang" alone accounting for approximately 43% [3] - The operational efficiency of leading companies is expected to enhance market penetration, benefiting from scale effects and further increasing industry concentration [3] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry - The investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector are increasingly structural, with the innovative drug industry chain remaining a core focus, particularly in areas like immunotherapy and small nucleic acid technology [4] - The CXO sector is experiencing a steady recovery, with improved overseas biotech financing conditions and a structural rebound in domestic CRO demand [4] - The medical device sector is expected to benefit from recovering hospital demand and improving inventory cycles, with domestic companies likely to gain market share due to expanding procurement policies [5] Group 5: Agriculture and Livestock - The pig farming industry is undergoing capacity reduction, with the number of breeding sows decreasing to 39.61 million by the end of 2025, leading to a potential price recovery supported by seasonal demand [7] - The poultry farming sector is facing tight supply due to previous overseas breeding restrictions, while the yellow feather chicken market is entering a growth phase with low historical breeding costs [7] - The planting sector is benefiting from agricultural cycle rotations and policy support, with the domestic transgenic corn industry expected to expand, favoring leading seed companies with strong R&D capabilities [7]