Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc (CHF) is experiencing a "strong oscillation with limited dual-direction movement" due to a combination of global central bank policy divergence, geopolitical risk fluctuations, and trade pattern adjustments, reflecting its status as a pure safe-haven currency [1] Group 1: Current Market Dynamics - As of January 22, 2026, the USD/CHF exchange rate is at 0.7953, ending a three-day decline, with a trading range of 0.7900-0.8020 [1] - The EUR/CHF exchange rate is hovering around 0.9350, showing significant resistance without a clear breakout direction [1] - The CHF has appreciated slightly against the USD and stabilized against the EUR, driven by the "loose US, stable Swiss" policy interest rate differential and temporary inflows of safe-haven funds [1] Group 2: Swiss National Bank (SNB) Policy - The SNB maintains a policy interest rate of 0%, which is low compared to other major central banks, with no immediate plans for adjustment [2] - SNB President Martin Schlegel emphasized that the threshold for restoring negative interest rates is very high, even in the event of negative inflation [2] - The zero interest rate policy aims to prevent excessive appreciation of the CHF, alleviating pressure on key export sectors such as watchmaking and pharmaceuticals [2] Group 3: Economic Fundamentals - Switzerland's macroeconomic accounts provide a long-term fundamental "moat" for the CHF, with a current account surplus consistently above 4% of GDP and a net international investment position exceeding 100% of GDP [3] - Despite a temporary trade deficit due to high US tariffs, a trade agreement has led to a rapid recovery, particularly in gold exports, which surged from 0.3 tons in August to 128.2 tons in October [3] - The CHF's safe-haven status remains attractive to global investors, supported by Switzerland's political neutrality, low government debt (approximately 40%), and substantial net overseas assets [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - Institutions predict a "strong oscillation with narrowed volatility" for the CHF in 2026, with key divergences centered on the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and geopolitical risk developments [4] - Valion Bank forecasts the USD/CHF exchange rate to fluctuate between 0.79 and 0.81 throughout the year, while UBS suggests limited further weakening of the USD [4] - Traders Union's statistical model indicates that if the current market conditions persist, the USD/CHF rate could drop to around 0.778 by year-end and potentially further to approximately 0.6515 by 2030 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing fluctuations against the US dollar (USD), with significant influences from the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy and economic indicators, leading to a critical point for directional movement in the currency market [1][2][3] Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The RBA has ended its easing cycle after three rate cuts in 2025, with expectations shifting towards potential interest rate hikes due to persistent inflation above the target range of 2%-3% [1] - There is a notable divergence in forecasts regarding future rate adjustments, with some institutions predicting a 25 basis point hike in February, while others suggest maintaining current rates due to concerns over consumer confidence [1][2] - The interest rate swap market indicates a 25% probability of a rate hike in February, increasing to 76% by May, with an overall expectation of a 30 basis point increase throughout 2026 [2] Economic Performance - Australia's economy shows resilience, with household spending increasing by 1.0% month-on-month in November 2025, and an annual growth rate of 6.3%, the highest since September 2023 [2] - The labor market remains robust, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3% in October and a significant increase in full-time employment [2] Consumer Confidence and Cost Pressures - Consumer confidence is declining, with the Westpac consumer confidence index falling by 1.7% to 92.9 in January 2026, indicating a pessimistic outlook on future economic conditions [3] - Rising living costs, including a 5.2% increase in housing costs and a 19.7% rise in electricity prices, are contributing to the pressure on consumer sentiment [3] Currency Dynamics and External Influences - The AUD's performance is significantly affected by global risk sentiment and international demand, with a notable recovery in international tourism contributing positively to the economy [3] - Despite the AUD showing resilience against the USD, external factors such as trade tensions and geopolitical issues may exert downward pressure on the currency [3] Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD exchange rate is currently oscillating around the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating low volatility and potential for a directional breakout [4] - Key resistance levels are identified at 0.6760-0.6799, while support is concentrated in the 0.6660-0.6690 range, with a potential downward trend if key support is breached [4]

加拿大经济韧性为加元提供底层支撑。2025年第三季度年化GDP增长达2.6%，远超市场预期；9月至11 月期间新增就业岗位18.1万个，劳动力市场持续改善，服务业就业增速加快。不过央行提示四季度GDP 增速大概率走弱，企业招聘意愿趋谨慎，且伦敦失业率攀升至7.2%，区域就业分化问题凸显，一定程 度上制约了加元走强动能。机构预测2026年加拿大经济将温和复苏1.1%，整体基本面难以支撑加元脱 离震荡区间。 作为商品货币，加元走势与原油价格高度联动。近期WTI原油在连续两日反弹后再度回落至59.30美元 附近，叠加美欧贸易担忧发酵，市场担心摩擦升级抑制全球能源消费前景，直接削弱加元表现，为美元 兑加元提供阶段性上行动力。但亚洲大国经济数据提振原油需求预期，又限制了油价下行空间，使得汇 价难以持续突破区间。此外，美国计划对欧洲国家加征关税引发的外交不确定性，让美元在避险属性与 政策疑虑间摇摆，进一步加剧汇市震荡。 日线级别来看，美元兑加元整体维持震荡偏强态势，在1.3800上方多次获得支撑，短期均线系统呈现粘 合向上迹象，暗示多头略占优势。但汇价在上探1.3900-1.3920区间时持续遇阻，未能有效突破，显示上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian dollar (CAD) is experiencing a slight appreciation against the US dollar (USD), influenced by monetary policy divergence, oil price fluctuations, and trade agreement uncertainties, with short-term trends remaining unclear and medium-term appreciation potential constrained [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - As of January 22, 2026, the CAD/USD exchange rate is 0.7235, showing a minor increase of 0.0796% from the previous trading day [1]. - The USD/CAD exchange rate has fluctuated from 1.3724 at the beginning of the year to a high of 1.3908, currently stabilizing in the 1.38-1.39 range [1]. - The exchange rate has shown a strong support level above 1.3800, with significant resistance around 1.3900-1.3920 [1][2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Bank of Canada has cut interest rates by 100 basis points to 2.25% in 2025 and signaled a pause in rate cuts, with expectations to maintain the rate in 2026 [2]. - The Federal Reserve has reduced rates by 75 basis points, with market expectations for two more rate cuts before September 2026, creating a "looser US, stable Canada" policy environment [3]. - There is a divergence in long-term policy outlooks among institutions, with some predicting no changes while others foresee potential rate hikes by the Bank of Canada [3]. Group 3: Oil Price Impact - The CAD is closely tied to oil prices, with current weak oil prices being a significant factor suppressing the CAD [3]. - WTI crude oil prices are around $59.30, with concerns over US and European trade affecting global energy consumption and, consequently, the CAD [3]. - Long-term factors such as OPEC+ production cuts and geopolitical risks may support oil prices, potentially benefiting the CAD [3]. Group 4: Trade Relations and Economic Outlook - Uncertainties surrounding the USMCA review in summer 2026 pose risks to the CAD, as changes in trade agreements could impact Canadian exports and the economy [4]. - Canadian exports have been negatively affected by increased tariffs, with the average tariff rate rising to 5.9% by October 2025, leading to a contraction in export growth [4]. - The Canadian economy shows resilience in consumer spending and labor market improvements, but challenges remain, including weak business investment and stagnant population growth [4]. Group 5: Long-term Forecasts - Institutions generally predict limited appreciation potential for the CAD, with forecasts suggesting a gradual strengthening to around 1.35 (CAD/USD 0.7407) in 2026, primarily in the first half of the year [5]. - Morgan Stanley indicates that adjustments in the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting pace will reinforce the USD's relative strength, limiting the CAD's appreciation potential [5].

技术面来看，美元兑瑞郎短期反弹趋势明确，打破前期下行通道压制，整体处于低位回升后的震荡整理 阶段。价格当前围绕0.7950一线博弈，日内上方关键阻力位关注0.7965早盘高点，若能有效突破，将进 一步测试0.8005重要整数关口，该位置为短期趋势反转的关键节点，突破后汇价有望延续反弹至0.8145 附近。下方支撑需重点留意0.7940近期整理平台，该位置为反弹过程中的重要支撑位，若回落跌破，短 线可能下探0.7875前期低位，若该支撑失守，汇价或重回下行趋势，进一步下探0.7835附近目标。从技 术指标来看，短期动量指标拐头向上，多头动能逐步释放，震荡类指标脱离超卖区域并向中性偏多区间 移动，印证当前汇价的反弹态势，但若反弹至关键阻力位后量能不足，或出现技术性回调。 整体而言，美元兑瑞郎受避险情绪降温及美元偏强支撑，短期反弹格局确立，目前处于高位震荡蓄势阶 段。地缘风险缓释成为当前汇价上行的核心驱动，而美瑞货币政策分化预期则为美元提供中期支撑。后 续若美国核心经济数据超预期走强，将助力汇价突破上方阻力，延续反弹走势；若地缘局势出现反复或 美国数据疲软，避险情绪回流将推动瑞郎反弹，令汇价承压回调。操作上需关注0 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index is trading around 98.795, while spot silver opened at $93.06 per ounce and is currently around $92.11 per ounce, indicating a decline [1] - On January 21, the dollar index rose by 0.22% to close at 98.767, while spot silver fell by 1.61% to $93.04 per ounce, influenced by developments regarding Greenland [1] - The SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 56.38 tons to 16,166.1 tons as of January 21 [2] Group 2 - The situation regarding Greenland has seen developments, with Trump stating a cooperation framework with NATO and retracting threats of tariffs against eight European countries [2] - The European Parliament has indefinitely frozen the review of the US-EU trade agreement [2] - The silver market experienced fluctuations, opening at $94.571, reaching a high of $95.556, and closing at $92.95, forming a long lower shadow candlestick pattern [5]

Market Overview - The main contract for strong wheat futures remained unchanged at 3050.00 yuan as of the report date [1] Export Data - As of January 15, 2026, the U.S. wheat export inspection volume was 392,611 tons, up from a revised 317,964 tons the previous week [1] - Cumulative U.S. wheat export inspection volume for the current crop year reached 15,974,550 tons, compared to 13,330,168 tons during the same period last year [1] - The EU's soft wheat export volume for the 2025/26 year was reported at 11.8 million tons, slightly down from 12 million tons the previous year [1] - The EU's barley export volume for the 2025/26 year was 5.5 million tons, significantly up from 2.6 million tons the previous year [1] Domestic Market Conditions - Recent cold wave and snow weather have disrupted transportation, increasing logistics costs and leading to price increases in certain regional markets [1]

摘要北京时间周四(1月22日)亚市盘中，美元指数交投于98.793附近，现货黄金开盘于4830.31美元/盎 司，目前交投于4801.69美元/盎司附近，黄金t+d交投于1076.00元/克附近，沪金主力交投于1081.20元/克 附近。 1月21日COMEX黄金库存1124.17吨，较前一交易日增加0.22吨；COMEX白银库存13135.42吨，较前一 交易日减少129.49吨。 1月21日SPDR黄金ETF持仓1077.66吨，较前一个交易日减少4.00吨；SLV白银ETF持仓16222.48吨，较 前一个交易日增加149.42吨。 1月21日延期补偿费支付方向：Au(t+d)--空付多，Ag(t+d)--空付多，mAu(t+d)--多付空。 【要闻速递】 1、特朗普称与北约达成格陵兰岛合作框架，收回对欧洲8国的关税威胁，明确不会武力夺岛。瑞典最大 养老基金已抛售其持有的绝大部分美国国债，此次出售规模约合77亿至88亿美元。欧洲议会宣布无限期 冻结欧美贸易协定审议工作。格陵兰岛潜在协议曝光：小块割地供美军建基地。 2、伊朗官方：3117人在近期骚乱事件中死亡。 3、欧盟寻求改革世贸组织的"最惠国"原则。 ...

21日，欧洲议会国际贸易委员会主席朗格宣布，针对欧盟与美国贸易协定的审议将无限期冻结。朗格表 示，当天欧洲议会谈判团队决定，暂停欧洲议会国际贸易委员会就欧美贸易协定的审议工作。朗格称， 目前欧盟的主权和领土完整正面临威胁，在这种情况下无法照常开展相关工作。 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 昨日黄金市场波动剧烈，日内大幅上扬，价格一度逼近4888高位，基本触及高盛去年所预测的4900目标 价位。然而，凌晨时段受消息面影响，金价出现大幅下跌。从短期走势来看，市场存在回调需求，随后 才会进一步选择方向。 从下方支撑位来看，若4755被有效下破，金价大概率将回落至本周低点4630，甚至有可能触及本轮起涨 点4537附近。反之，若4755未能被有效突破，预计短期内金价将以高位震荡为主。 摘要今日周四(1月22日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1074.58元/克，较前一交易日下跌6.97元，涨幅 0.64%，日内呈现高位承压走势。当日开盘价报1081.31元/克，盘中最高触及1081.90元/克，最低下探至 1068.30元/克。 今日周四(1月22日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1074.58元/克，较前一交易日下跌6.97 ...

摘要今日周四(1月22日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价为1073.16元/克，较前一交易日下跌8.46元，跌幅 0.78%，日内呈现高位承压走势。当日开盘价报1081.48元/克，盘中最高触及1082.07元/克，最低下探至 1068.47元/克。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 回看减持之前的黄金价位在4600一线，本周又是太空高开，这ETF的连续抛售减持后，博主认为金价有 意会回补周初的跳空缺口，也就是说金价在短期内或许有回调4600美元的需求，无论如何今日不能再去 看涨，起码4600上方需要谨慎，周四周五就尽量不要去多。 1小时盘面凌晨回落最低4755，金价若有意走空的话会在短期内迅速跌破这个低点的支撑，那么就能验 证博主所说回补4600的可能性，今天思路观望为主。 今日周四(1月22日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价为1073.16元/克，较前一交易日下跌8.46元，跌幅 0.78%，日内呈现高位承压走势。当日开盘价报1081.48元/克，盘中最高触及1082.07元/克，最低下探至 1068.47元/克。 【要闻速递】 欧盟委员会发言人21日确认，欧盟领导人紧急峰会仍将按计划于当地时间22日晚举行。尽管特朗普已 ...