Core Viewpoint - International gold prices surged, with spot gold breaking the $4700 per ounce mark for the first time, reaching a high of $4717.02, driven by heightened market risk aversion due to aggressive U.S. foreign policy and trade tensions with Europe [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The rise in gold prices is primarily influenced by President Trump's aggressive foreign policy and tariff threats, which have intensified trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe, leading to increased market risk aversion [1] - Silver prices also reached a historical high during this period, indicating a broader trend in precious metals [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Despite expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in the short term, weak economic data suggests a potential resumption of rate cuts by mid-2026 [1] - The pressure from Trump on the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts and the challenges to its independence have further supported gold prices [1] Group 3: Current Market Status - As of January 20, 2026, spot gold was reported at $4725.88 per ounce, reflecting a 1.20% increase, while spot silver was at $94.94 per ounce, with a 0.28% increase [1]

Group 1 - London gold is currently trading above $4710, with a price of $4724.09 per ounce, reflecting a 1.16% increase, and has reached a high of $4724.92 and a low of $4658.89 during the session [1] - The short-term outlook for London gold appears bullish, with the price maintaining above the key support level of $4650 per ounce [3] - If gold prices unexpectedly fall below the $4650 support, it may trigger a pullback towards the $4619 to $4634 range [4] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley analyst Federico Manicardi provided a cautious yet optimistic assessment regarding market volatility stemming from Trump's Greenland proposal, suggesting that tensions may ease and negotiations could lead to an agreement [2] - The U.S. has indicated that failure to reach an agreement on the Greenland "sale" could result in a 10% tariff on certain EU countries, prompting strong reactions from the EU, which is considering retaliatory measures [2] - The current market environment has raised alerts regarding potential stock market corrections, with geopolitical and trade-related statements being amplified in their impact on asset prices [2]

Group 1 - The total amount of gold futures at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 99,990 kilograms, with no change from the previous day [1] - The main gold futures opened at 1,050.16 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 1,061.16 CNY and a low of 1,047.80 CNY, currently trading at 1,060.16 CNY, reflecting a 1.99% increase [1] - Trading volume for the day is 168,464 contracts, with open interest increasing by 18,249 contracts to a total of 185,964 contracts [1] Group 2 - The U.S. economy is experiencing a "light to moderate" expansion, with inflation cooling down; December CPI year-on-year decreased to 2.7%, and core CPI month-on-month was 0.2% lower than expected [1] - Industrial production showed an unexpected rebound in December, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, primarily driven by utilities and manufacturing [1] - The Federal Reserve is maintaining a cautious stance, with interest rate cut expectations pushed back to June [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that escalating tensions in US-Europe relations are driving gold prices to new historical highs, with the Shanghai gold price showing a slight discount compared to futures prices [1][2] - On January 20, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 1060.16 yuan per gram, reflecting a daily increase of 1.99% and a trading volume of 168,464 contracts [1] - The COMEX gold futures rose by 1.77% to $4,676.7 per ounce, indicating a strong performance in the gold market amid geopolitical tensions [1] Group 2 - The market is closely monitoring upcoming economic indicators, including the January LPR and the Eurozone's January ZEW economic sentiment index, as well as developments in US-Europe tariff disputes [2] - The gold-silver ratio is currently low, highlighting the relative value of gold, which is expected to remain strong in the near term [2] - The Shanghai gold premium has narrowed to around 1 yuan per gram, suggesting a tightening market condition [2]

Group 1 - Citigroup predicts a bullish scenario where gold could reach $5,000 within three months, with a potential test of $4,700-$4,750 this week due to trade tensions from Trump's tariff policies and a surge in investments into gold ETFs for hedging, leading to localized shortages in physical gold [1] - JPMorgan anticipates a strong market this week with a target of $4,750, and if stabilized, a push towards $5,000 next month, driven by a 26% probability of a Fed rate cut in March, declining 10-year Treasury yields, and an average monthly gold purchase of 70 tons by emerging market central banks, providing a "safety cushion" for gold prices [1] - Goldman Sachs expects a potential pullback this week with a buying range of $4,600-$4,650, maintaining a year-end target of $4,900, while expressing concerns over profit-taking by hedge funds that may lead to increased short-term volatility despite a long-term bullish outlook [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley adopts a conservative stance, projecting a trading range of $4,620-$4,690 this week, emphasizing that central bank gold purchases provide strong support, and highlighting the acceleration of de-dollarization in emerging markets, suggesting that buying gold is not merely for hedging but a strategic move against dollar dominance, with this trend expected to continue at least until Q3 [1] - Current data indicates that while U.S. employment and inflation are slowing, some sectors are improving under the potential influence of Fed rate cuts, leading to a cautious but optimistic outlook for gold prices in the medium to long term, supported by increased allocations from institutional investors amid rising geopolitical risks [3] - The market is likely to be influenced more by U.S. economic data affecting Fed policy expectations and geopolitical disturbances, with a general view that short-term news impact is diminishing, maintaining a strong oscillating trend for gold prices, while suggesting holding long positions above the 20-day moving average and selling out-of-the-money put options to capture time value [3]

知情人士透露，鲍威尔计划出席周三的庭审。这也是鲍威尔迄今为止对库克表现出的最为公开、直接的 支持，特朗普最早于去年8月底已试图将库克免职。 【基本面消息】 据美联社报道，美联储主席鲍威尔将于周三出席美国最高法院关于美联储理事库克的口头辩论，这是美 国央行掌门人一次不同寻常的公开表态与支持。最高法院正在审理总统特朗普是否有权解职前总统拜登 任命的理事库克一案。 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货1月20日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计618582千克，今日仓单较上一 日上涨822千克。 沪银主力维持震荡格局，今日白银期货开盘报23053元/千克，最高触及23568元/千克，最低触及22777 元/千克，截止收盘报23062元/千克，上涨3.62%。 地区 仓库 期货 增减 上海 中储吴淞 80947 -30 外运华东虹桥 56796 -1995 中工美供应链 431479 -2221 合计 569222 -4246 广东 深圳威豹 49360 5068 总计 618582 822 ...

1月21日周三，鲍威尔将出席美国最高法院关于美联储理事Lisa Cook案件的口头辩论。高市早苗宣布2 月8号举行日本众议院选举：将结束过度紧缩的财政政策。 特朗普据称"私信"欧方扬言不再只考虑"和平"、美必须控制格陵兰，公开讲话时拒绝说明是否会以武力 夺取，称若未就该岛问题达成协议将"百分之百"落实对欧关税。 【机构观点】 特朗普强购格陵兰岛可能是"TACO交易"，欧洲反制措施只具有象征性，但是美国仍在向伊朗等中东方 向调遣军队，引导地缘政治风险此起彼伏；全球主要国家财政宽松预期，美国一季度或释放六千亿美元 流动性，多国央行持续增加黄金储备，或使贵金属价格易涨难跌，但亦需警惕美国12月就业数据好坏参 半和消费端通胀CPI保持平稳，叠加多位美联储官员对继续降息保持谨慎，使市场预期美联储1月几无 降息且降息时点4月推迟至6月，特朗普政府对美联储主席鲍威尔的刑事诉讼态度有所缓和，美国暂未对 白银、铂、钯等关键矿产加征进口关税。 【黄金期货行情表现】 1月20日，沪金主力暂报1054.66元/克，涨幅0.92%，今日沪金主力开盘价1045.28元/克，截至目前最高 1055.56元/克，最低1042.62元/克。 ...

机构观点 新湖期货： 基于供应过剩格局对于价格的极大压制，外加位于产能扩张周期，导致纯碱价格亦跌难涨，因此纯碱依旧可作为空配标的，以反弹沽空策略为 主。套利策略方面中长期逢低布局09多玻璃空纯碱。持续关注新产能投放动态以及碱厂装置变动情况。 光大期货： 消息面 上周(2026.1.9-2026.1.15)国内纯碱产量77.53万吨，环比增加2.88%，同比增加8.16%。 1月20日，江苏昆山锦港纯碱装置负荷下降，价格轻质出厂1280元/吨，重质暂不报价；江苏井神化工纯碱装置减少，设备有检修，价格稳定，轻 质报价出厂1270元/吨。 1月19日纯碱企业库存录得154.42万吨，较上一交易日减少3.08万吨。 基本面来看，近期个别企业装置减量、短停，行业开工率昨日降至84.94%，但阿拉善二期产能稳产也将抵消短期供应下降幅度。需求端跟进情绪 谨慎，中下游按需、低价补库为主。整体来看，纯碱基本面压力依旧突出，短期期货价格维持偏弱运行趋势，关注春节前中下游备货能否给市场 带来托底，另需关注纯碱装置负荷变化、下游产能变化、宏观政策及商品市场整体情绪。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the domestic futures market for energy and chemicals is experiencing a significant decline, particularly in glass futures, which dropped by 3.12% to 1056.00 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - On the cost side, the average weekly profit for float glass using natural gas, coal gas, and petroleum coke as fuel is reported at -164, -4, and -69 CNY/ton respectively, showing a slight increase compared to the previous week [2] - In terms of supply, it is noted that all three fuel production lines are currently operating at a loss, leading to a continuous reduction in capacity since the end of December. However, there are rumors of three production lines planning to restart around the Spring Festival, which may lead to a slight increase in supply [2] - Regarding demand, it is observed that as January progresses, processing plants are primarily focused on completing orders, but low stocking willingness due to financial factors is affecting procurement, resulting in a stable but weak market. A cold wave may impact logistics in certain regions of North and Central China [2] - Looking ahead, it is anticipated that the market will maintain a weak and fluctuating trend until substantial positive factors such as capacity clearance emerge, with ongoing attention needed on subsequent supply-demand marginal changes and policies [2]

【白银期货最新行情】 格陵兰岛问题：①德国财长：将对美国关税作出强有力回应。②法国财政部长：法国和德国同意就与格 陵兰岛相关的关税威胁采取强硬行动。③欧盟发言人：欧盟领导人将于周四在布鲁塞尔召开紧急峰会。 ④市场消息：由于格陵兰岛争端升级，丹麦官员将缺席本届达沃斯论坛。⑤格陵兰岛总理：美国最新声 明，包括关税威胁，并未改变我们不会让自己被施压的事实。 【机构观点】 欧美关系紧张升级，银价虽继续大幅走高，但沪银情绪明显降温，并未刷新历史最高。沪银溢价扩大至 2400元/克，情绪有所升温。欧美关税摩擦再起，银价支撑仍存，但绝对高位风险较大，谨慎操作。沪 银2604：21600-23700区间操作。 据美联社：美联储主席鲍威尔将出席最高法院关于美联储理事库克的听证会。 日本首相高市早苗：将于1月23日解散众议院并将于2月8日举行大选投票。 国际货币基金组织：预计2026年世界经济将增长3.3%，较去年10月预测值上调0.2个百分点；2027年将 增长3.2%，与去年10月预测值持平。 1月20日 收盘价（元/千克） 当日涨跌幅 成交量（手） 持仓量（手） 沪银主力 23062 3.62% 715932 314710 ...