【机构观点】 【黄金期货最新行情】 数据显示，1月13日上海黄金现货价格报价1027.39元/克，相较于期货主力价格（1027.18元/克）升水 0.21元/克。 美国司法部已就美联储总部翻修相关事宜，对美联储主席鲍威尔启动刑事调查。鲍威尔对此回应称，此 举史无前例，应结合特朗普政府对美联储的持续威胁这一背景来看待，目的是就降息问题进一步向他施 压。 当地时间1月12日下午，美国总统特朗普发文称，任何与伊朗进行商业往来的国家，其与美国的所有商 业往来都将面临25%的关税。该命令即日起生效。 | 1月13日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 1027.18 | 1.01% | 197421 | 103633 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 上一个交易日COMEX黄金期货涨2.40%报4608.80美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨7.33%报85.16美元/盎 司。当前地缘局势持续紧张，美国方面联储新任主席提名人公布在即，全面关税面临最高法院裁决；市 场不确定性加剧。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported an increase in gold futures warehouse receipts, indicating a rise in market activity and potential investment interest in gold and silver due to geopolitical and economic factors [1] Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Total gold futures warehouse receipts reached 98,283 kilograms, with an increase of 630 kilograms from the previous day [1] - The main gold futures contract opened at 1,026.86 yuan per gram, peaking at 1,035.34 yuan and closing at 1,027.18 yuan, reflecting a 1.01% increase [1] - Trading volume was recorded at 197,421 contracts, with open interest decreasing by 12,817 contracts to 103,633 [1] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Starting in 2026, China will implement strict export controls on silver, highlighting its transition to a key strategic resource [1] - The Silver Institute forecasts a continued global silver deficit through 2025, driven by increasing demand in technology sectors such as AI, reinforcing long-term supply shortage expectations [1] - Recent developments, including a criminal investigation into the Federal Reserve Chairman, have heightened market uncertainty, boosting safe-haven demand for silver and gold [1]

【黄金期货行情表现】 亚特兰大联储总裁博斯蒂克表示，通胀问题仍是他最关心的经济问题，他还称，在更广泛的不确定性 中，就业市场仍处于低雇佣、不解雇的模式。"通胀仍然过高，"他称。"必须将其控制住，我们需要高 度聚焦，确保我们所做的一切都能为此做出贡献。" 美国总统特朗普1月8日称，作为美国三军统帅，"我不需要国际法"。他的"道德标准和意志"是其在全球 范围内指挥军事行动的唯一制约因素。 美国国会预算办公室预计，美国GDP增速将在2026年加快至2.2%，2026年PCE通胀率为2.7%，2028年为 2.1%。美国失业率将在2026年降至4.6%，并在2028年进一步降至4.4%。2026年劳动力市场反映出劳动 力需求增加，劳动力供给增长乏力。美联储利率将在2026年第四季度降至3.4%。 【机构观点】 短期来看，鲍威尔刑事风暴增加对美联储独立性担忧，美最新非农就业数据表明美国劳动力市场增长动 能减弱，市场对美联储今年晚些时期的降息预期强化；地缘政治风险激发市场避险需求，支撑金价上 涨。美联储降息周期、全球央行购金和地缘政治冲突对金价形成坚实的中长支撑。 1月13日，沪金主力暂报1027.18元/克，涨幅1.0 ...

Group 1 - The current trading price of silver is $85.74 per ounce, with a daily opening at $85.16 and a high of $86.02, while the lowest price reached $83.40 [1][2] - The U.S. dollar index is trading around 98.951, indicating a stable position in the market [1] - The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December is anticipated to be released, which may impact market dynamics [1] Group 2 - The trend of de-dollarization is being accelerated by U.S. policies and rhetoric, particularly during the Trump administration, which has led to a reassessment of economic dependence on the U.S. by other countries [2] - Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" strategy aims to reduce the U.S. trade deficit but has resulted in countries seeking alternatives to the dollar for international trade and investment [2] - The global partners' response to U.S. pressure has led to defensive measures that inadvertently promote the de-dollarization process [2] Group 3 - Silver prices have shown a downward trend in early trading, attempting to recover previous gains while indicating a potential for bullish momentum [3] - A breakthrough above the $86.00 level could lead to resistance at $86.50, with further potential to reach $87.00 [4] - Conversely, if silver falls below $85.50, the next support level would be $85.00, followed by a recent cycle high of $83.75 reached on December 29 [4]

【基本面消息】 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯周一预计2026年美国经济将保持健康，并暗示短期内没有降息的理由。威廉姆斯 表示，FOMC已将货币政策从温和限制性的立场进一步推向接近中性的水平，"当前的货币政策已具备 良好条件，有助于支持劳动力市场的稳定，并推动通胀回归2%的目标。" 威廉姆斯表示，美联储在将通胀拉回2%目标的同时，"避免给就业市场带来不必要的风险"至关重要。 他补充称："近几个月，随着劳动力市场降温，就业面临的下行风险有所上升，而通胀的上行风险则有 所减弱。" 威廉姆斯预计今年GDP增速在2.5%至2.75%之间，失业率今年趋于稳定，并在随后几年回落。在通胀方 面，他预计价格压力将在今年上半年见顶于2.75%至3%之间，全年平均回落至2.5%，并在2027年回到 2%。 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货1月13日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计630066千克，今日仓单较上一 日减少19577千克。 沪银主力维持震荡格局，今日白银期货开盘报20900元/千克，最高触及21518元/千克，最低触及20600 元/千克，截止收盘报21004元/千克，上涨5.90%。 | 地区 | 仓库 | 期货 | 增减 | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell by the U.S. Department of Justice has led to a significant increase in metal prices, particularly silver, which saw a daily increase of over 14% [2] - The Shanghai silver futures price closed at 21,004 yuan per kilogram on January 13, with a daily increase of 5.90% and a trading volume of 1,141,819 contracts [1] - The current market sentiment is bullish for silver, with the Shanghai silver premium expanding to 2,200 yuan per kilogram, driven by geopolitical concerns and heightened emotions in the market [2] Group 2 - New York Fed President Williams projected that the U.S. economy will remain healthy through 2026, suggesting no immediate need for interest rate cuts [2] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has shifted monetary policy closer to a neutral stance, which is expected to support labor market stability and help inflation return to the 2% target [2] - The investigation into Powell has caused market volatility, with potential implications for his willingness to relinquish power [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Hunan Gold has suspended trading on January 12, 2026, due to a major asset restructuring involving the acquisition of 100% equity in Hunan Gold Tianyue Mining Co., Ltd. and Hunan Zhongnan Gold Smelting Co., Ltd. [1] - The suspension is expected to last no more than 10 trading days to prevent market disruption from information leakage [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 41.194 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 96.26%, indicating strong performance [1]. Group 2 - On January 12, 2026, Hunan Gold's financing data showed a net repayment of 69.2947 million yuan, with a financing balance of 1.558 billion yuan [2]. - The precious metals sector increased by 3.54%, while the Hunan sector decreased by 1.28% [2]. - The technical analysis indicates that Hunan Gold has a resistance level at 23.05 yuan and a support level at 22.05 yuan, with an accelerating upward trend [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a mixed performance in the domestic glass futures market, with significant declines in prices due to weak demand and ongoing supply adjustments [1][2] Group 2 - On the supply side, glass production lines are undergoing maintenance, with daily melting capacity stabilizing around 150,000 tons, and some lines still scheduled for repairs before the Spring Festival [1] - The inventory of glass companies recorded 55.518 million heavy boxes as of January 9, showing a decrease of 1.348 million heavy boxes from the previous trading day [2] - Demand remains weak, with real estate development investment and construction data continuing to show poor performance, leading to a lack of improvement in architectural glass demand [1][2] Group 3 - The processing orders for glass are in a prolonged low state, with both month-on-month and year-on-year figures remaining low, indicating insufficient demand [2] - The cancellation of export tax rebates for tempered and hollow glass has had a limited impact due to overall low export volumes [2] - Despite the reduction in glass supply, the overall supply-demand pressure is easing, suggesting potential low-buy opportunities after a long-term correction [2]

Market Overview - As of January 12, the total number of propylene futures warehouse receipts recorded was 15,445 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a cumulative decrease of 302 lots over the past month, representing a decline of 1.92% [1] - On January 12, the propylene spot price was reported at 5,921 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 0.85%. Over the past week, the price rose by 176.67 yuan/ton, or 3.08%, while it fell by 299.75 yuan/ton over the past month, a decrease of 4.82% [1] Institutional Insights - Guotai Junan Futures indicates that multiple favorable factors are driving propylene prices higher, with both futures and spot prices rising. Supply-side factors include expected maintenance of several PDH units, with February operating rates projected to drop significantly to around 65%. Additionally, the imposition of consumption tax on naphtha is expected to raise costs for cracking units, potentially leading to reduced operating loads. Geopolitical uncertainties in Iran may also disrupt costs for propane and methanol, while MTO main units are reporting shutdowns [2] - Demand-side factors show that while polypropylene (PP) operating rates have decreased this week, they remain relatively high, with profit recovery in powder materials leading to a return of external sourcing. The cancellation of export tax rebates for polyether has triggered a rush for exports, providing strong support for propylene demand. Overall, the short-term fundamentals for propylene appear strong, with an upward trend expected [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Ruida Futures, China's propylene production for the week of January 2-8 was 1.242 million tons, an increase of 0.38 million tons from the previous week, reflecting a growth rate of 0.31%. The operating rates of downstream propylene factories showed mixed trends, with the highest increase in the operating rate of octanol due to the new capacity of Jiangsu Huachang [3] - Several facilities, including Jiangsu Huachang, Zhejiang Satellite, and Shandong Jianlan, have resumed normal production. However, the operating rate of polypropylene granules has seen the largest decline, primarily due to shutdowns at facilities such as Lihe Zhixin and Donghua Energy. Currently, the supply and demand for propylene are relatively balanced, with futures expected to remain volatile, focusing on support around the 5,900 yuan level [3]

1月13日盘中，液化石油气期货主力合约高位震荡，最高上探至4336.00元。截止收盘，液化石油气主力 合约报4313.00元，涨幅1.82%。 液化石油气期货主力涨近2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 银河期货 LPG短线或有反弹 新湖期货 LPG盘面偏强 中东货源偏紧导致1月沙特CP价格再次上涨，超出市场预期，叠加伊朗动荡驱动外盘上行的同时对内盘 形成支撑。但进口成本居高不下导致PDH利润持续亏损，后续需要持续关注亏损负反馈导致的开工率下 降。同时，跟石脑油比价持续高位说明经济性没有明显好转。燃烧需求方面，在气温下降的情况下有所 好转，供应端环比偏紧。整体来看，基本面不具备持续错配的条件，盘面上方仍有阻力，短线或有反 弹，长线仍然承压。 新湖期货：LPG盘面偏强 1月至2月中东现货紧张，3月份沙特和科威特的出口预计上涨，此外沙特Jafurah项目将在4月-6月开始出 口LPG。2月下半月前期延迟的美国货到达远东地区，供应端小幅增加。需求端，镇海炼化采购了2月上 半月到货的加拿大丙烷，为PDH新装置投产做准备。当前炼厂库存无压力，现货价格偏强。短期受伊朗 局势带动，盘面偏强。中期来看 ...